2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please  (Read 145013 times)
ajc0918
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« Reply #400 on: July 24, 2018, 07:18:21 AM »
Quote from: cp on July 24, 2018, 01:41:13 AM
Quote from: Ebsy on July 23, 2018, 09:45:43 PM
https://giffords.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/FL-CD-25-ARS-May-2018-2-Questionnaire-1.pdf

PPP internal for Dem outside group in FL-25:

Flores (Dem): 39
Diaz-Balart(GOP): 46

Generic D: 45
Generic R: 47

Internal poll, GOP still ahead in generic ballot and match up; seems pretty unremarkable, no?

... oh

(Diaz-Balart won by nearly 2:1 margin in 2016. That even a partisan internal poll could show him <50% and within single digits is awful for him, and most every other Republican this year)

He's facing a much better challenger.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #401 on: July 24, 2018, 07:55:05 AM »
Quote from: cp on July 24, 2018, 01:41:13 AM
Quote from: Ebsy on July 23, 2018, 09:45:43 PM
https://giffords.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/FL-CD-25-ARS-May-2018-2-Questionnaire-1.pdf

PPP internal for Dem outside group in FL-25:

Flores (Dem): 39
Diaz-Balart(GOP): 46

Generic D: 45
Generic R: 47

Internal poll, GOP still ahead in generic ballot and match up; seems pretty unremarkable, no?

... oh

(Diaz-Balart won by nearly 2:1 margin in 2016. That even a partisan internal poll could show him <50% and within single digits is awful for him, and most every other Republican this year)

It was around 25%, so not quite 2-1, approximately 62.5-37.5%
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #402 on: July 24, 2018, 08:23:57 AM »
Diaz Balart clearly benefited from the 2016 redistricting. I remember seeing calculations of the 2016 presidential results on the 2014 districts at 1 point, and Hillary Clinton would have won his old district.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #403 on: July 24, 2018, 09:11:15 AM »
CO-06:
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Gass3268
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« Reply #404 on: July 24, 2018, 09:48:29 AM »
Cook moved PA-17 to Lean D, I'm guessing Dave got a preview of the poll.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #405 on: July 24, 2018, 09:50:05 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 24, 2018, 09:48:29 AM
Cook moved PA-17 to Lean D, I'm guessing Dave got a preview of the poll.

It wasn't already??? Geez, these pundits are delusional sometimes, if they think this wasn't already Lean D, if not better.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #406 on: July 24, 2018, 10:00:32 AM »
Quote from: ajc0918 on July 24, 2018, 09:11:15 AM
CO-06:



Nice.
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #407 on: July 24, 2018, 10:01:29 AM »

AHHHHHHHH YES LAMB
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ajc0918
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« Reply #408 on: July 24, 2018, 10:02:15 AM »
Quote from: westroopnerd on July 24, 2018, 10:01:29 AM


AHHHHHHHH

BOOM

Rothfus will be Lambinated
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #409 on: July 24, 2018, 10:02:39 AM »
Quote from: westroopnerd on July 24, 2018, 10:01:29 AM

AHHHHHHHH YES LAMB

Told ya so! (clap)
Told ya so! (clap)
Told ya, told ya, told ya so! (clap)

Told ya so! (clap)
Told ya so! (clap)
Told ya, told ya, told ya so! (clap)
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #410 on: July 24, 2018, 10:03:26 AM »
Quote from: westroopnerd on July 24, 2018, 10:01:29 AM

AHHHHHHHH YES LAMB

That's WAY better than I expected.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #411 on: July 24, 2018, 10:04:36 AM »
Quote from: westroopnerd on July 24, 2018, 10:01:29 AM

AHHHHHHHH YES LAMB

Rothfus is getting smothered lol.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #412 on: July 24, 2018, 10:04:56 AM »
Quote from: westroopnerd on July 24, 2018, 10:01:29 AM

AHHHHHHHH YES LAMB
These are safe D numbers
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #413 on: July 24, 2018, 10:10:36 AM »
Quote from: RubioRepublican on July 24, 2018, 10:09:03 AM
Quote from: ON Progressive on July 24, 2018, 10:03:26 AM
Quote from: westroopnerd on July 24, 2018, 10:01:29 AM

AHHHHHHHH YES LAMB

That's WAY better than I expected.

It shouldn’t be:

Quote from: RubioRepublican on July 23, 2018, 08:06:00 PM
Quote from: mencken on July 23, 2018, 02:43:39 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 23, 2018, 10:14:35 AM
It's on, like Donkey Kong:



Keith is going to get Lambinated. Sad

My guess is this poll will show Lamb +8 or so. Rothfus has always been pretty weak and I’m sure Lamb has a lot of residual name rec and goodwill from his March election

I knew Lamb was going to be ahead, but I certainly did not think it was going to be a double digit lead in all models. Nobody did.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #414 on: July 24, 2018, 10:16:48 AM »
Quote from: ON Progressive on July 24, 2018, 10:03:26 AM
Quote from: westroopnerd on July 24, 2018, 10:01:29 AM

AHHHHHHHH YES LAMB

That's WAY better than I expected.

Yeah same here. I anticipate high single digits at best.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #415 on: July 24, 2018, 10:17:17 AM »
Lamb brought out the mint jelly and is smothering Rothfus
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Zaybay
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« Reply #416 on: July 24, 2018, 10:21:36 AM »
Quote from: westroopnerd on July 24, 2018, 10:01:29 AM

AHHHHHHHH YES LAMB

Me a couple of minutes ago: Oh, finnaly, the poll for the house race was released, wonder what it is? Wait....Cook moved PA-17 to lean D? Thats..how good is this poll?


Me now: Shocked
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Gass3268
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« Reply #417 on: July 24, 2018, 10:24:02 AM »
They break it down geographically by who represents what area under the old lines and Lamb is winning all three areas:

CD-12 (Rothfus):
Lamb 46%
Rothfus 45%

CD-18 (Lamb):
Lamb 54%
Rothfus 37%

CD-03 & 14:
Lamb 58%
Rothfus 25%
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #418 on: July 24, 2018, 10:35:59 AM »
Hmm, Lamb must be cleaning up with former Altmire voters. Doesn't the new district absorb those areas?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #419 on: July 24, 2018, 10:39:03 AM »
Nice.

... but how did the new district vote in 2016 (Trump vs. Hillary) for comparison ?
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #420 on: July 24, 2018, 10:40:03 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on July 24, 2018, 10:39:03 AM
Nice.

... but how did the new district vote on 2016 (Trump vs. Hillary) for comparison ?


Trump edged out the new district by like 2-3 points and actually narrowly lost the Allegheny county part of the district.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #421 on: July 24, 2018, 10:40:53 AM »
Quote from: Bagel23 on July 24, 2018, 10:40:03 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on July 24, 2018, 10:39:03 AM
Nice.

... but how did the new district vote on 2016 (Trump vs. Hillary) for comparison ?


Trump edged out the new district by like 2-3 points and actually narrowly lost the Allegheny county part of the district.

Trump +3
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #422 on: July 24, 2018, 10:41:24 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on July 24, 2018, 10:39:03 AM
Nice.

... but how did the new district vote in 2016 (Trump vs. Hillary) for comparison ?

Roughly 49-47 Trump.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #423 on: July 24, 2018, 10:53:18 AM »
Quote from: 1-Term Donnelly on July 24, 2018, 10:35:59 AM
Hmm, Lamb must be cleaning up with former Altmire voters. Doesn't the new district absorb those areas?

Some of them, yes
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Brittain33
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« Reply #424 on: July 24, 2018, 10:57:50 AM »
Lambinating.
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