2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[GeorgiaModerate]

Agree that the LV screen looks far too strict here, strange for Selzer who is one of the best in the business by far.

Because of the energization of new and previously low-propensity voters, many "traditional" LV screens may not be a good fit this year.

[Jeppe]

Grinnell College/Selzer & Co., Aug. 29 - Sep. 2, 779 likely voters

D: 43
R: 41

This would mean Finkenauer is leading by 3 and Axne is behind by 3.

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, Sep. 2-4, 1249 registered voters

D: 45 (nc)
R: 40 (+1)

[BudgieForce]

The likely voter screen takes out 223 respondents out of 1002. Trumps numbers improve from -11 to -7 when you take these 223 out. That to me means Selzer screened out a lot of D-voters.

I think @GeorgiaModerate is 100% correct. A bunch of polling firms might end up having egg on their face because their likely voter screen is removing probable democrat voters.

[Wiz in Wis]

The likely voter screen takes out 223 respondents out of 1002. Trumps numbers improve from -11 to -7 when you take these 223 out. That to me means Selzer screened out a lot of D-voters.

I think @GeorgiaModerate is 100% correct. A bunch of polling firms might end up having egg on their face because their likely voter screen is removing probable democrat voters.

Guys... let's just put it in the average. Even with Seltzer, the average D lead in the generic ballot test right now is 9-10 points.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The likely voter screen takes out 223 respondents out of 1002. Trumps numbers improve from -11 to -7 when you take these 223 out. That to me means Selzer screened out a lot of D-voters.

I think @GeorgiaModerate is 100% correct. A bunch of polling firms might end up having egg on their face because their likely voter screen is removing probable democrat voters.

Guys... let's just put it in the average. Even with Seltzer, the average D lead in the generic ballot test right now is 9-10 points.

Definitely include it in the averages (this is worth doing with anything that isn't clearly a bogus poll).  But it's nevertheless interesting to discuss why there is such a discrepancy with likely voters from some pollsters.  It would be nice if more of them would publish their results under a variety of models like Monmouth has been doing.

[TheSaint250]

Utah Debate Commission

UT-01

Rob Bishop (R): 51.0%
Lee Castillo (D): 15.8%
Eric Eliason (UU): 6.6%
Other: 3.7%
Undecided: 22.9%

There's some other here, but I'm too lazy to post them

Long story short, Eliason qualifies for the debate.

https://twitter.com/BenWinslow/status/1037339175152803841

[Tender Branson]

NC-02 (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll for Linda Coleman-D):

45% Linda Coleman (D)
44% George Holding (R-Inc.)
  5% Jeff Matemu (L)

The poll, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, was conducted between Aug. 23 and Aug. 27 and covered 401 likely voters in the 2nd Congressional District. The district covers parts or all of Wake, Franklin, Harnett, Johnston, Nash, and Wilson counties.

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article217851615.html

This district was Holding+14 in 2016 and Trump+10.

[ajc0918]

NC-02 (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll for Linda Coleman-D):

45% Linda Coleman (D)
44% George Holding (R-Inc.)
  5% Jeff Matemu (L)

The poll, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, was conducted between Aug. 23 and Aug. 27 and covered 401 likely voters in the 2nd Congressional District. The district covers parts or all of Wake, Franklin, Harnett, Johnston, Nash, and Wilson counties.

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article217851615.html

This district was Holding+14 in 2016 and Trump+10.

This district remains a Tossup, just as it's always been.

If NC-02 is a toss up is NC-09 tilt D?

[TarHeelDem]

NC-02 (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll for Linda Coleman-D):

45% Linda Coleman (D)
44% George Holding (R-Inc.)
  5% Jeff Matemu (L)

The poll, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, was conducted between Aug. 23 and Aug. 27 and covered 401 likely voters in the 2nd Congressional District. The district covers parts or all of Wake, Franklin, Harnett, Johnston, Nash, and Wilson counties.

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article217851615.html

This district was Holding+14 in 2016 and Trump+10.

This district remains a Tossup, just as it's always been.

If NC-02 is a toss up is NC-09 tilt D?

Yes. Verging on Lean, actually.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1037446403021320197

Republicans won the house vote by 14 in 2016 and over 20 in 2014, for comparison.

[Nyvin]

Republicans won the house vote by 14 in 2016 and over 20 in 2014, for comparison.

It's notable that the two way vote is 49% D - 43% R.   So much for the story of libertarian votes being nothing but votes torn from Republicans cold dead hands.

[IceSpear]

Republicans won the house vote by 14 in 2016 and over 20 in 2014, for comparison.

It's notable that the two way vote is 49% D - 43% R.   So much for the story of libertarian votes being nothing but votes torn from Republicans cold dead hands.

Yeah, I have no idea where this myth comes from. It wouldn't surprise me if they drew mainly from the Republicans more often than not, but it's hardly universal.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1037446403021320197

Republicans won the house vote by 14 in 2016 and over 20 in 2014, for comparison.

As Indiana is R+9 in PVI, this shows that the nation is at D+4...not enough for a wave.

[wesmoorenerd]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1037446403021320197

Republicans won the house vote by 14 in 2016 and over 20 in 2014, for comparison.

As Indiana is R+9 in PVI, this shows that the nation is at D+4...not enough for a wave.

"Should we trust the multiple reputable nationwide GCB polls showing a double digit Dem lead? No, let's extrapolate from a single statewide poll using PVI!" - hofoid, 2018

[Hindsight was 2020]

So a state senate race in Pennsylvania did an internal and it’s district is in the PA-17 and found Lamb up 13% https://m.pghcitypaper.com/pittsburgh/internal-poll-shows-democrat-state-senate-nominee-lindsey-williams-with-9-point-lead-over-republican-jeremy-shaffer/Content?oid=10458165

[JG]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1037446403021320197

Republicans won the house vote by 14 in 2016 and over 20 in 2014, for comparison.

As Indiana is R+9 in PVI, this shows that the nation is at D+4...not enough for a wave.

Doesn't a R+9 PVI mean the Republicans should be leading the democrats by around 18 points in a neutral environment?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1037446403021320197

Republicans won the house vote by 14 in 2016 and over 20 in 2014, for comparison.

As Indiana is R+9 in PVI, this shows that the nation is at D+4...not enough for a wave.

"Should we trust the multiple reputable nationwide GCB polls showing a double digit Dem lead? No, let's extrapolate from a single statewide poll using PVI!" - hofoid, 2018

A data point is a data point. Don't be mad that the very poll everyone is slobbering over is showing dark news for the Dems.

[IceSpear]

So a state senate race in Pennsylvania did an internal and it’s district is in the PA-17 and found Lamb up 13% https://m.pghcitypaper.com/pittsburgh/internal-poll-shows-democrat-state-senate-nominee-lindsey-williams-with-9-point-lead-over-republican-jeremy-shaffer/Content?oid=10458165

It also has Wolf up by 21.

the burbstompin is gonna be yuge

[TarHeelDem]

So a state senate race in Pennsylvania did an internal and it’s district is in the PA-17 and found Lamb up 13% https://m.pghcitypaper.com/pittsburgh/internal-poll-shows-democrat-state-senate-nominee-lindsey-williams-with-9-point-lead-over-republican-jeremy-shaffer/Content?oid=10458165

Sounds about right.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1037446403021320197

Republicans won the house vote by 14 in 2016 and over 20 in 2014, for comparison.

As Indiana is R+9 in PVI, this shows that the nation is at D+4...not enough for a wave.

I don't think that's how it works, Republicans won Indiana's House elections in 2016 by 14.67%.  If right now it's R+5 then that's quite a swing.   I don't think they're comparing it to any national margin when they say R+5.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1037446403021320197

Republicans won the house vote by 14 in 2016 and over 20 in 2014, for comparison.

As Indiana is R+9 in PVI, this shows that the nation is at D+4...not enough for a wave.

I don't think that's how it works, Republicans won Indiana's House elections in 2016 by 14.67%.  If right now it's R+5 then that's quite a swing.   I don't think they're comparing it to any national margin when they say R+5.

OK, even using House elections, the GOP (in raw votes) led by 1% throughout the nation in 2016, thus Indiana is about 13 points to the right of the nation. Thus, an  R+5 State GCB only translates to D+8 across the nation...not the double-digits everyone's been yapping about.

[JG]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1037446403021320197

Republicans won the house vote by 14 in 2016 and over 20 in 2014, for comparison.

As Indiana is R+9 in PVI, this shows that the nation is at D+4...not enough for a wave.

I don't think that's how it works, Republicans won Indiana's House elections in 2016 by 14.67%.  If right now it's R+5 then that's quite a swing.   I don't think they're comparing it to any national margin when they say R+5.

OK, even using House elections, the GOP (in raw votes) led by 1% throughout the nation in 2016, thus Indiana is about 13 points to the right of the nation. Thus, an  R+5 State GCB only translates to D+8 across the nation...not the double-digits everyone's been yapping about.

But more than enough for a wave and to get the house. Which was your point to b egin with.

[Devils30]

The generic vote in Indiana in 2016 was understated for Rs based on Hollingsworth’s underperformance

[McGovernForPrez]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1037446403021320197

Republicans won the house vote by 14 in 2016 and over 20 in 2014, for comparison.

As Indiana is R+9 in PVI, this shows that the nation is at D+4...not enough for a wave.

That's not how PVI works. With a PVI of R+9 you'd expect a CGB to be R +14 roughly.