2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

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WA-03: Beutler +5

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1012073209854939136

All the pundits have this as safe R. lol

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https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1012410105097347072

Winnable.

If Love is up 6 even with this partisan breakdown, it actually looks pretty dire for McAdams:

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LOL the IBD pollster claimed that Sarah Sanders and Kirstjen Nielsen getting chased out of restaurants is helping Trump.

Their poll #analysis is always ridiculously biased, but to their credit they don't seem to ever fudge the raw data.

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Scott Taylor sure is acting agitated for a "safe" incumbent.

The same logic could apply to Atlas posters so certain of the blue wave that they feel the overwhelming need to thoroughly dissect the posts of known and admitted trolls every time they barf out some low effort bait.

You guys know you aren't going to convince them, so it sure seems like you're trying to convince yourselves. Just like Scott Taylor furiously typing to VA Dem hacks on Twitter that he's really super uber safe in November, lol.

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Where are the dozens of articles being written about how this Reuters poll spells doom for the Republicans?

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Civitas isn’t the best NC pollster, but if McCready does indeed end up winning this year, I think he might be better off running for statewide office (maybe Senate? Cooper and Stein seem likely to run for re-election anyway) in 2020 than face an uphill battle to hold his seat in a Pres year

Yeah, he'd be a great candidate against Tillis.

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Wait, McCready can't be competitive, much less ahead. Nancy Pelosi existing is supposed to make this race safe R. Checkmate libs.

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What do we think is the point at which the House flips?  Probably D+6.5 or so if we are going strictly by the R-held seats with the closest Clinton/Trump numbers.  Increasingly, though, it looks like there are enough Ojedas and McCreadys leading deep in Trump country to make it lower than that.  I would be fairly confident D+5 nationwide flips the House, and under the right circumstances, even D+3-4 could.

The "Dems need to win the PV by at least 19 points to even have a CHANCE at winning the House" #analysis was always idiotic. D+5 could easily be enough, though I wouldn't say it's guaranteed until the 8+ range.

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I really hope we dont find out that a +7 popular vote win isnt enough to flip the house. That would be incredibly demoralizing.

I'm sure Republicans love having so much power, but they should care about how they get it too. This isn't a game, after all. There is a lot at stake in these elections, and constantly holding power despite getting far fewer votes is a really bad way to maintain faith in the country's elections. It's compounded by the fact that Republicans actively sow distrust among their own voters just so they can justify voter suppression laws.

Most of them have no problem with getting power through election interference from a foreign adversary, so is it really surprising that they'd have no problem with getting power through domestic shenaningans performed by themselves?

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D +5 isn't enough. Democrats needed to win by 12 to win in 2016.

That's not how it works. You can't just apply uniform swing from the previous election. By that logic, Republicans had no chance at winning dozens of districts they picked up in 2010.

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I really hope we dont find out that a +7 popular vote win isnt enough to flip the house. That would be incredibly demoralizing.

I'm not that optimistic. I'd say +10, thanks to the illegal gerrymandering.

That's why I think the Senate will almost certainly flip, but the House won't.

Not sure why you guys are so worried. In a universe where Phil Bredesen is competitive, much less favored, then Dems taking the House is a certainty. Each election is not an independent event, they are heavily correlated.

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https://twitter.com/politico/status/1018857860527280130

Uh, this is big.

Good ...flipping the Governorship will allow the Dems to steal McCains Senate seat.

I think McCain would resign before Ducey got sworn in, even considering Arizona's same-party appointment laws.

Even if we got a dem Gubna though, wouldn't they have to appoint a Republican if McCain's seat opens up?

Yes, Republican Party would get to pick 3 choices and the Governor would get to pick from that list. Personally, this is my favorite way for Senatorial replacements.

If the AZ legislature flips...they can just change the law and let the governor appoint who he wants

I think the optics of that would be terrible, especially for a replacement for someone as respected (deservedly or not) as McCain.

Agreed, it'd look like a greedy power grab.

Because greedy power grabs like stealing a SCOTUS seat hurt the Republicans so much. Or hurt Massachusetts Democrats so much in 2004.

Anyway, IA-03 has long been underrated as a potential pickup opportunity. Young has never had to run against the tide.

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Rohrabacher trailing a guy with 40% name recognition bodes almost as well for him as his stunning 30% of the vote in the jungle primary. Toss up/Tilt R.

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PRRI GCB: Dems lead 53-42 nationwide

Some state GCBs:
IL - Dems 57-40
OH - Dems 50-48
MI - Dems 54-43
WI - Reps 50-49
MN - Dems 53-45

https://www.prri.org/research/American-democracy-in-crisis-voters-midterms-trump-election-2018/

Wississippi confirmed.

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No internal poll is going to push this seat off of Lean D.

This. Also, whoever took Andrew off mod review should be demodded.

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It's on, like Donkey Kong:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1021412755700682752

Hopefully Flawed Homely Rothfus is getting Lambasted.

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https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1021772134320877568
AHHHHHHHH YES LAMB

T O S S U P
O
S
S
U
P

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I knew Lamb was going to be ahead, but I certainly did not think it was going to be a double digit lead in all models. Nobody did.

I wasn't necessarily expecting it, but it doesn't particularly surprise me either. The pundits are jokes for keeping it a toss up as long as they have.

And speaking of that, how come occasionally the pundits will release a laundry list of changes moving safe R districts to likely R, likely R ones to lean R, lean R to toss up...but will never move any toss ups to lean D? Last time I checked races arbitrarily deemed "toss up" are not exempt from political environment changes. Look how long it took them to admit Comstock is an underdog (some still haven't, lol.)

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It would seem like the Trump strategy of just enthusing the Republican (Trump) base voters is really falling flat.  

I don't think Trump's "strategy" has anything to do with it. Obama had the exact opposite strategy: bending over backwards to please people outside his base (even though he won by big margins in the PV/EV, unlike Trump who lost the former and barely won the latter by the skin of his teeth) and the backlash against Democrats in 2010 is likely to be stronger than the backlash against the Republicans in 2018 will be. It's just as simple as the "swing voters" getting tired of the party in power at record speed, and voting for the only other alternative, as well as the losing base being far more enthusiastic and turning out at higher rates than the winning base.

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The Quinnipiac poll has college educated whites at D+13 and non college whites at R+11.

Nobody tell RINO Tom.

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Dana Balter leading 47-43 in NY-24 according to PPP. Looks like the Democratic lean of the district is eroding Katko’s personal appeal.

That's certainly a terrifying poll for Republicans.

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Ami Bera looks safe. This is a Grant internal.

Bera (D): 50%
Grant (R): 41%
Undecided: 9%

Why in the world would he release this? There's literally no silver lining for him here. Not even #Beraunder50.

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If that's anywhere close to being accurate, then Democrats could pick up 4, maybe even 5 Congressional Districts in Virginia.

4 is probably the limit. With this GCB, I could definitely see Comstock getting blanched and Taylor/Brat losing. I'm not entirely confident Leslie Cockburn can win in VA-05 because she's such a godawful candidate but she might get swept in by the wave and the fact that she's facing a bigfoot erotica enthusiast. Wittman, Griffith, and the Goodlatte seat are almost assuredly staying in the R column.

It indeed cannot be overstated just how badly Leslie Cockburn sucks, but even Joe Walsh and Allen West were pulled over by the wave, so it's certainly possible.

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What’s causing the Democrats to head south in the polls?

Indeed, I'm also dying to know what caused the Republicans to tick up a single point in the average.

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Ipsos/Reuters, June 24-28, 1810 registered voters

D 45 (+4)
R 35 (-2)

Friendly reminder that the Ipsos/Reuters GCB is incredibly volatile and should be taken with a grain of salt completely ignored.