2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please  (Read 144976 times)
Brittain33
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« Reply #550 on: August 02, 2018, 07:52:23 AM »
MA-7 Dem Primary: WBUR/MassInc, 7/27-7/29 (403 LVs)

Capuano: 48 (+1 since June)
Pressley: 35 (nc)

Lots of good data at the link.
http://www.wbur.org/news/2018/08/02/wbur-poll-capuano-pressley-7th-district

People are evenly split between reelecting an experienced candidate vs. electing someone new with 40%-40%.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #551 on: August 02, 2018, 08:39:39 AM »
Dana Balter leading 47-43 in NY-24 according to PPP. Looks like the Democratic lean of the district is eroding Katko’s personal appeal.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #552 on: August 02, 2018, 08:45:51 AM »
Quote from: Jeppe on August 02, 2018, 08:39:39 AM
Dana Balter leading 47-43 in NY-24 according to PPP. Looks like the Democratic lean of the district is eroding Katko’s personal appeal.

I’d be stunned if Katko lost
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #553 on: August 02, 2018, 08:51:29 AM »
Quote from: Jeppe on August 02, 2018, 08:39:39 AM
Dana Balter leading 47-43 in NY-24 according to PPP. Looks like the Democratic lean of the district is eroding Katko’s personal appeal.
NUT!!!!
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Zaybay
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« Reply #554 on: August 02, 2018, 08:52:51 AM »
Quote from: Jeppe on August 02, 2018, 08:39:39 AM
Dana Balter leading 47-43 in NY-24 according to PPP. Looks like the Democratic lean of the district is eroding Katko’s personal appeal.

Wow, I was actually in the camp that Kalto would win. I made two exceptions for my rule of environment over personal appeal, and it was Kalto and Valadao. Looks like there can only be one exception to the rule.

Moving this race from likely R->Tossup, with a slight tilt D.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #555 on: August 02, 2018, 08:55:57 AM »
Quote from: Jeppe on August 02, 2018, 08:39:39 AM
Dana Balter leading 47-43 in NY-24 according to PPP. Looks like the Democratic lean of the district is eroding Katko’s personal appeal.

Lol, muh likely Republican.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #556 on: August 02, 2018, 09:05:13 AM »
Quote from: KingSweden on August 02, 2018, 08:45:51 AM
Quote from: Jeppe on August 02, 2018, 08:39:39 AM
Dana Balter leading 47-43 in NY-24 according to PPP. Looks like the Democratic lean of the district is eroding Katko’s personal appeal.

I’d be stunned if Katko lost

Why? This is a D+3 district even with Trump overperforming in upstate NY in 2016. He's been unusually strong in the few elections he's run in, but he's not Ileana Ros-Lehtinen with 25 years in office.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #557 on: August 02, 2018, 09:16:36 AM »
« Edited: August 02, 2018, 09:26:14 AM by Zaybay »
Quote from: Brittain33 on August 02, 2018, 09:05:13 AM
Quote from: KingSweden on August 02, 2018, 08:45:51 AM
Quote from: Jeppe on August 02, 2018, 08:39:39 AM
Dana Balter leading 47-43 in NY-24 according to PPP. Looks like the Democratic lean of the district is eroding Katko’s personal appeal.

I’d be stunned if Katko lost

Why? This is a D+3 district even with Trump overperforming in upstate NY in 2016. He's been unusually strong in the few elections he's run in, but he's not Ileana Ros-Lehtinen with 25 years in office.
I, and many on Atlas, emphasized her candidate quality. She is like Fitzpatrick in PA-01, except he has survived in a much harder district. I gave Wallace the benefit of the doubt, considering that Wallace was running in a neutral district and a poll had him down around 6 a couple months ago(only 1 if using likely turnout).But for Balter, I didnt. Mostly for the aforementioned reasons, but also because Balter was considered weak, and not even the DCCC endorsed him, but it was for rather petty reasons of beating out their inferior candidate. But now that there is polling, we finally can see that really only 1 district will be safe due to candidate quality, the one in CA, and all others are competitive.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #558 on: August 02, 2018, 09:55:07 AM »
Quote from: Jeppe on August 02, 2018, 08:39:39 AM
Dana Balter leading 47-43 in NY-24 according to PPP. Looks like the Democratic lean of the district is eroding Katko’s personal appeal.

Maybe that's why she was endorsed now by DCCC.
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American2020
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« Reply #559 on: August 02, 2018, 10:19:53 AM »
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IceSpear
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« Reply #560 on: August 02, 2018, 05:45:01 PM »
Quote from: Jeppe on August 02, 2018, 08:39:39 AM
Dana Balter leading 47-43 in NY-24 according to PPP. Looks like the Democratic lean of the district is eroding Katko’s personal appeal.

That's certainly a terrifying poll for Republicans.
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ajwiopjawefoiwefnwn
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« Reply #561 on: August 02, 2018, 10:19:50 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on August 02, 2018, 05:45:01 PM
Quote from: Jeppe on August 02, 2018, 08:39:39 AM
Dana Balter leading 47-43 in NY-24 according to PPP. Looks like the Democratic lean of the district is eroding Katko’s personal appeal.

That's certainly a terrifying poll for Republicans.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #562 on: August 02, 2018, 10:41:12 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on August 02, 2018, 05:45:01 PM
Quote from: Jeppe on August 02, 2018, 08:39:39 AM
Dana Balter leading 47-43 in NY-24 according to PPP. Looks like the Democratic lean of the district is eroding Katko’s personal appeal.

That's certainly a terrifying poll for Republicans.

Similar to Lamb leading Rothfus by double digits.
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Badger
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« Reply #563 on: August 02, 2018, 10:42:32 PM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on August 02, 2018, 10:41:12 PM
Quote from: IceSpear on August 02, 2018, 05:45:01 PM
Quote from: Jeppe on August 02, 2018, 08:39:39 AM
Dana Balter leading 47-43 in NY-24 according to PPP. Looks like the Democratic lean of the district is eroding Katko’s personal appeal.

That's certainly a terrifying poll for Republicans.

Similar to Lamb leading Rothfus by double digits.

Haven't seen that yet. Link please?
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ltomlinson31
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« Reply #564 on: August 02, 2018, 10:47:02 PM »
Quote from: Badger on August 02, 2018, 10:42:32 PM
Quote from: Brittain33 on August 02, 2018, 10:41:12 PM
Quote from: IceSpear on August 02, 2018, 05:45:01 PM
Quote from: Jeppe on August 02, 2018, 08:39:39 AM
Dana Balter leading 47-43 in NY-24 according to PPP. Looks like the Democratic lean of the district is eroding Katko’s personal appeal.

That's certainly a terrifying poll for Republicans.

Similar to Lamb leading Rothfus by double digits.

Haven't seen that yet. Link please?



https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_PA_072418/
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Badger
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« Reply #565 on: August 02, 2018, 10:48:31 PM »
Quote from: ltomlinson31 on August 02, 2018, 10:47:02 PM
Quote from: Badger on August 02, 2018, 10:42:32 PM
Quote from: Brittain33 on August 02, 2018, 10:41:12 PM
Quote from: IceSpear on August 02, 2018, 05:45:01 PM
Quote from: Jeppe on August 02, 2018, 08:39:39 AM
Dana Balter leading 47-43 in NY-24 according to PPP. Looks like the Democratic lean of the district is eroding Katko’s personal appeal.

That's certainly a terrifying poll for Republicans.

Similar to Lamb leading Rothfus by double digits.

Haven't seen that yet. Link please?



https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_PA_072418/

Thanks! Smiley
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #566 on: August 03, 2018, 05:28:17 AM »
https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/poliquin-and-golden-neck-and-neck-in-democrats-poll-of-maine-2nd-district

Poliquin led Golden 40 percent to 39 percent in the initial matchup, according to a polling memo obtained first by Roll Call.
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Skye
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« Reply #567 on: August 03, 2018, 11:22:58 AM »
Wow, Katko is supposed to be a strong incumbent. This poll should raise some alarms.
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OneJ
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« Reply #568 on: August 03, 2018, 11:32:27 AM »
I feel ashamed that I haven’t been paying attention to this race as Katko, in the past two elections won by ~20 points and apparently was one of the Clinton Republicans. Great news for Balter and hope this holds.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #569 on: August 03, 2018, 11:32:31 AM »
Quote from: yeah_93 on August 03, 2018, 11:22:58 AM
Wow, Katko is supposed to be a strong incumbent.

So were Chet Edwards and Ike Skelton.
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adrac
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« Reply #570 on: August 03, 2018, 01:23:52 PM »

Brace yourselves for the Labor Day panic...
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #571 on: August 03, 2018, 03:19:29 PM »

Ipsos/Reuters, July 29-Aug. 2, 1331 registered voters

D: 45 (+4)
R: 35 (-2)
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KingSweden
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« Reply #572 on: August 03, 2018, 04:48:27 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 03, 2018, 03:19:29 PM

Ipsos/Reuters, July 29-Aug. 2, 1331 registered voters

D: 45 (+4)
R: 35 (-2)

IpLOL
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #573 on: August 03, 2018, 08:58:07 PM »
https://twitter.com/TiffanyBond

ugh god
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #574 on: August 03, 2018, 08:59:43 PM »

What did she do?
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