Japan 2016 - July 10

[jaichind]

NHK site does not report this yet, but some TV channels are reporting exact vote count.  The earliest results show a slight lead for DP in Hokkaido 5th

[jaichind]

http://www.htb-asahi-senkyo.jp/sokuho/

Has more detailed count for Hokkaido 5th.   With 4.16% of the vote it is

LDP    52.1%
DP      47.9%

[jaichind]

With 4.49% of the vote it is

LDP    51.4%
DP      48.6%

[jaichind]

With 5.77% of the vote it is

LDP    50.9%
DP      49.1%

[jaichind]

With 7.72% of the vote it is

LDP    52.4%
DP      47.6%

A bunch of the village vote came in and pushed up the LDP vote share.  The bad news for LDP is that it represents pretty much all of the village vote.  Rest is the urban and suburban vote which will decide the election. 

[jaichind]

With 17.8% of the vote it is

LDP    49.2%
DP      50.8%

A dump of the urban vote came in.  DP takes the lead.

[jaichind]

With 27.3% of the vote it is

LDP    49.5%
DP      50.5%

[jaichind]

With 28.9% of the vote it is

LDP    49.6%
DP      50.4%

[jaichind]

In Kyodo 3rd  with 31% of the vote counted it is

DP        72.9%
ORA      17.1%
Ind         5.1%
PJK         3.0%


PJK at 3% is pretty sad.

[jaichind]

The various TV channels projects LDP wins in Hokkaido 5th.  I do not see how given how close the vote is but I guess they are using projections based on how each zone is voting. 

[jaichind]

With 29.2% of the vote it is

LDP    49.9%
DP      50.1%

[jaichind]

In Kyodo 3rd  with 39% of the vote counted it is

DP        72.0%
ORA      18.3%
Ind         4.6%
PJK         3.0%

ORA has to rethink its name.  Running in an election in a non-Osaka prefecture with the word Osaka in the name of the party seems to be poisonous

[jaichind]

With 31.4% of the vote it is

LDP    50.4%
DP      49.6%

[jaichind]

NHK count seems to be faster now so I will go with them

With 44% of the vote it is

LDP    50.5%
DP      49.5%

[jaichind]

With 51.6% of the vote it is

LDP    49.6%
DP      50.4%

DP retakes the lead.  But all media outlets insist on their call for LDP.  I guess they know what they are doing.

[jaichind]

With 66.3% of the vote it is

LDP    53.3%
DP      46.7%

Some LDP urban strongholds came in.

[jaichind]

In Kyodo 3rd  with 99% of the vote counted it is

DP        65.4%
ORA      20.8%
PJK         6.5%
Ind         4.6%

PJK made a small comeback.  Exit polls were very accurate.

[jaichind]

With 70.9% of the vote it is

LDP    54.0%
DP      46.0%

I can see why all those media outlets made the call that early when it was neck-to-neck.  I still feel the final results will be closer than this.

[jaichind]

In Kyodo 3rd total result

DP      65,051   65.4%
ORA    20,710   20.8%
PJK       6,449     6.5%
Ind.      4,599     4.6%

Back in 2014 it was

LDP    59,437   35.8%
DPJ    54,900    33.1%
JCP    26,655    16.1%
JIP     24,840    15.0%

It seems that DP did manage to merge into it the DPJ-JCP vote from 2014.  ORA did manage to capture the majority of the JIP vote from 2014 which is to be expected since Kyodo is part of Kinki.  What should be disappointing is that whatever LDP-KP voters that managed to come out seems to split their vote and did not vote for ORA.  This calls into question ORA's ability to capture votes outside the Hashimoto JRP core from Kinki.

[jaichind]

With 75.9% of the vote it is

LDP    53.8%
DP      46.2%

[jaichind]

With 79.3% of the vote it is

LDP    53.4%
DP      46.6%

[jaichind]

Looking at the results of Hokkaido 5th in zones that are done reporting it seems that DP was able to consolidate the DP-JCP vote from 2014 which would have made the election 50-50.  The LDP victory seems to have come from NPD bloc support for LDP.

[jaichind]

With 92.3% of the vote it is

LDP    53.3%
DP      46.7%

[jaichind]

All votes counted in Hokkaido 5th



LDP    135,842   52.4%
DP      123,517   47.6%

Amazing how close NHK exit poll was on this one as well.

Back in 2014 it was

LDP    131,394   50.9%
DPJ      94,975   36.8%
JCP      31,523    12.2%

LDP successfully consolidated the LDP-KP vote got the anti-JCP vote from NPD and the old JIP base.  This seems to show that Abe' strategy of harping on the anti-JCP theme is effective against the DP-JCP alliance strategy.  

[jaichind]

I guess the main lessons from these two by-elections are

1) LDP-KP vote mostly intact and not too far off its 2014 levels.
2) DP-JCP alliances does work on the ground and will be able to mostly merge their voting blocs
3) LDP still has the advantage given that is anti-JCP message can peal off the old JIP and ORA vote bases
4) ORA's brand not so hot outside of Osaka and most estimates on how it will do in the Summer 2016 are mostly likely inflated.