NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[IceSpear]

KY-06 and MN-08 are running again

KY-06:
Andy Barr - 46%
Amy McGrath - 44%

MN-08:

Joe Radinovich - 45%
Pete Stauber - 38%

Oh no, Stauber caught up to Radinovich in MN-08 now that we are up to 78 responses...

42-42 now. Red wave incoming!

The impact of the McSally tutu ad has reached Duluth. This is a disaster.

[IceSpear]

If those MN-08 numbers hold it would be a pretty great result for Dems considering it is supposed to be their most vulnerable seat.

[IceSpear]

It's funny how fast these change. Last night Paulsen and Radinovich were dominating, and now both races are close.

[IceSpear]

FIRST RESPONDENT IS A RACIST WV HICK.

They answered yes to "Has discrimination against whites become as big a problem as discrimination toward blacks and other minorities?"

They also think black people shouldn't have the right to kneel. LOL

[IceSpear]

Ojeda has 100% of the vote among those certain to vote. RIP GOP.

[IceSpear]

The enthusiasm gap is real folks.

[IceSpear]

Umm...apparently the 10th WV-03 respondent disapproves of Trump, wants to see Dems take the House, and is going to vote for Miller.  Family member of hers?

Didn't know Solid lives in WV

Sounds more like Jeppe, lol.

[IceSpear]

Man imagine how far gone that registered dem for Carol Miller is.

Don't blame them that the Democrats became filled with SJWs. The Democratic Party left them. If only they went back to their roots with candidates like George Wallace, Strom Thurmond, and Jesse Helms, I'm sure that wonderful #populist would once again rejoin the Democratic Party.

[IceSpear]

Guys, I think even Pol Pot would do better in WV 3rd than Hillary.

No, he's Asian.

[IceSpear]

It's now 3-0!

No wonder Republicans illegally leaked her files. They were desperate to make up that 100 point gap.

[IceSpear]

Brat has just made up 40 points in the past 5 minutes. At this rate, Republicans will win every single election in the country by November.

[IceSpear]

Brat has just made up 40 points in the past 5 minutes. At this rate, Republicans will win every single election in the country by November.

Never mind, Spanberger just made up like 10 points. I'm back to projecting Democrats will win every single election in the country by November.

[IceSpear]

#Bratunder10

[IceSpear]

I think Miller seems to be heading for a double-digit lead. Not at all a comfortable margin for a district that Trump won by 49 points, but forcing Republicans to invest here in the first place is great. Less money to go to around for other districts like VA-02 and VA-07, where they might be caught flat-footed.

But, I was told that Ojeda would win by double-digits and the race was Lean D because Ojeda was so #populist and a June poll showed him leading. Anyway, here's why Bevin is an underdog in 2019.

LOL

Told you guys not rely on the #populist rural districts. They'll stab you in the back every time the second some black guys in the NFL kneel. Focus on the burbstompings like VA-10, PA-17, and newcomer MN-03.

Racist WV Hicks will not vote for Ojeda even though he seems like a "good fit", as he is a member of the anti-white hate group (Democratic Party.)

[IceSpear]

I think Miller seems to be heading for a double-digit lead. Not at all a comfortable margin for a district that Trump won by 49 points, but forcing Republicans to invest here in the first place is great. Less money to go to around for other districts like VA-02 and VA-07, where they might be caught flat-footed.

But, I was told that Ojeda would win by double-digits and the race was Lean D because Ojeda was so #populist and a June poll showed him leading. Anyway, here's why Bevin is an underdog in 2019.

LOL

Told you guys not rely on the #populist rural districts. They'll stab you in the back every time the second some black guys in the NFL kneel. Focus on the burbstompings like VA-10, PA-17, and newcomer MN-03.

Racist WV Hicks will not vote for Ojeda even though he seems like a "good fit", as he is a member of the anti-white hate group (Democratic Party.)

...and the rightward economic shift of the party continues. It won't surprise me if Dems become the party of the 1% soon.

If that did happen, blame the rural #populists for voting based on black people kneeling or where transgender people take a piss rather than on any substantive economic policy.

[IceSpear]

Nice to see Dems reaping what they sow for disrespecting the rurals. Hope this is a good wake-up call for them to drop the unneeded cultural battles that the 1% likes and go back to their roots.

Except it's the GOP that brings up the unneeded cultural battles to keep the racist and bigoted hick rubes in their column. Works like a charm.

[IceSpear]

Nice to see Dems reaping what they sow for disrespecting the rurals. Hope this is a good wake-up call for them to drop the unneeded cultural battles that the 1% likes and go back to their roots.

Except it's the GOP that brings up the unneeded cultural battles to keep the racist and bigoted hick rubes in their column. Works like a charm.

Don’t say that GOP voters care more about black people kneeling than they do economics or you’ll work the socialists into a frenzy

LOL, right, I forgot. WV would be solid D again if only Democrats would talk about seizing the means of production and dialectical materialism.

[IceSpear]

Who else remembers when the "#populists" in Southern West Virginia (and the rest of Appalachia) voted overwhelmingly for coastal elitist multimillionaire vulture capitalist Gordon Gekko-esque Willard "Mitt" Romney over the black guy from the Midwest raised from humble beginnings running a "populist" campaign emphasizing the auto industry bailout and Romney's shady business practices?

[IceSpear]

So I come back on here and it seems the new consensus is WV-03 is Safe R.

Not quite, but Strong Lean R.

Calm down dude. This is one poll that isn't even finished yet. Ojeda is still within the margin of error for the poll anyways. There's still another poll out there that contradicts this one. You have a really bad habit of overreacting to small pieces of data and then proclaiming that the Democrats are doomed. Because of one bad poll for Ojeda you've claimed we should triage Manchin? Are you kidding me?

I mean, keep in mind the other poll is from June. In the vast majority of circumstances, a poll 2 months before the election is going to be far more important than one 5 months before election.

[IceSpear]

Manchin is polling poorly, because Miller has shown a strong connection to the opoids .And another problem , Trump has approval near 70. This will create coal blankets that sufficate voters

LOL, I was confused for a second, then I got it.

[IceSpear]

Even putting aside the head to head double digit margin, there's very little to like in this poll for Paulsen.

Trump approval: -30 (!)
Generic ballot: D+19 (!)
Among those certain to vote: Phillips +16
Name recognition: 84% for Paulsen, 49% for Phillips
Favorability: Even for Paulsen, +16 for Phillips

He might be joining the Comstock/Rothfus/Blum/Lewis DOA club.

[IceSpear]

people get a grip with the WV-03 poll...it isn't complete and the republican running is polling below 50% in a district that her predecessor won by 44 points only two years ago.

Well that's great and all (unironically)...but the problem is that Ojeda was leading comfortably in the previous poll and many people thought it was lean D.

And while Bagel was overreacting, it is definitely possible that this poll could be bad news for Manchin as well. WV-03 is the part of the state he's going to have to run up the score in. I wish they asked questions about the Senate/gubernatorial races too, it would take almost zero extra effort and it would be pretty interesting to see the differences.

[IceSpear]

There is no gubernatorial race here till 2020, but sure, why not.

I meant in general. Like ask about the Senate race in WV-03, both Senate races and the gubernatorial race in MN-03/MN-08, etc. It seems like it would be a lot more valuable and interesting than a bunch of the other boring questions they ask.

[IceSpear]

If you're making shaky assumptions about Manchin's chances based on Ojeda coming close to winning instead of outright winning, you should logically make assumptions about Clinton-Republican districts as well. Paulsen's (unexpected IMO) terrible showing, that would mean Democrats are likely picking up many other similar seats, eg CA-39 and CO-06. It would also portend that Democrats may also win other Clinton-Republican districts that were closer, just by narrower margins.

I'm pretty sure the vast majority of people here (including myself) think that Democrats are going to win the lion's share of Clinton districts.

[IceSpear]

Sure, there are issues with the methodology, but it's not like internal polls are going to be more accurate, especially since they're often released to send a specific message.

Yeah, it's pretty amusing that people are taking issue with this considering how many users here gobble up any junky (and possibly fake) internal poll that pops out of the woodwork like Pacman.