NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

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Ojeda's campaign has committed Bambi's Mom

[BlueDogs2020]

I wan't more VA-07, why did they stop polling there? Get back on the phones, people.

They don't want to call people past a certain time. Some people (especially seniors) have early bedtimes, don't you know!

If that's what it is, they are not very consistent about it. They have been calling later on other days, and also are still calling in WV-03, which is also in the Eastern Standard Time Zone.

I agree with your consensus, and I think the margin will probably tighten by a few percent by the end of the poll. Ojeda's main problem is name recognition and Demosaurs who vote for Miller because they think he is a liberal, or something along those lines.

[Pericles]

Surprised how poorly Paulsen is doing. It's possible this is reflective of other districts and Republican chances in other Clinton districts are overestimated, while Handel won by 4 in a district Trump won by 2 that doesn't mean a Republican can win(or at least most of the time, Valadao may be an exception) in a district Clinton won by 8 or even by double digits.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

From that 40 something second video from Mother Jones, my mom said that she thought that he had ptsd and was not mentally sound. She said she will probably support Miller just to prevent him from gaining even more power since she is scared he would do something bad.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Whatever will Ojeda do without that suburban DFW female Democrat demographic

Hopefully gain enough hicks in return to make it across the finish line.

[Figueira]

What. The Ojeda poll isn't even done yet.

[psychprofessor]

people get a grip with the WV-03 poll...it isn't complete and the republican running is polling below 50% in a district that her predecessor won by 44 points only two years ago.

[Xing]

Meanwhile, the MN-03 poll is done, and Phillips finished a little over 9 points ahead, enough for it to be just outside the margin of error. So what's bigger news? That an incumbent Republican who won by double digits in 2016 while Clinton won easily is now losing by near double digits? Or that a Democrat is down by 6% so far in a poll of a district that Trump won by 50%?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Meanwhile, the MN-03 poll is done, and Phillips finished a little over 9 points ahead, enough for it to be just outside the margin of error. So what's bigger news? That an incumbent Republican who won by double digits in 2016 while Clinton won easily is now losing by near double digits? Or that a Democrat is down by 6% so far in a poll of a district that Trump won by 50%?

Well this could bode really really badly for Manchin, so they are about equal.

[IceSpear]

people get a grip with the WV-03 poll...it isn't complete and the republican running is polling below 50% in a district that her predecessor won by 44 points only two years ago.

Well that's great and all (unironically)...but the problem is that Ojeda was leading comfortably in the previous poll and many people thought it was lean D.

And while Bagel was overreacting, it is definitely possible that this poll could be bad news for Manchin as well. WV-03 is the part of the state he's going to have to run up the score in. I wish they asked questions about the Senate/gubernatorial races too, it would take almost zero extra effort and it would be pretty interesting to see the differences.

[psychprofessor]

Meanwhile, the MN-03 poll is done, and Phillips finished a little over 9 points ahead, enough for it to be just outside the margin of error. So what's bigger news? That an incumbent Republican who won by double digits in 2016 while Clinton won easily is now losing by near double digits? Or that a Democrat is down by 6% so far in a poll of a district that Trump won by 50%?

Well this could bode really really badly for Manchin, so they are about equal.

Manchin is the incumbent who won his election in 2012 by 24 points while Obama lost by 27.

[Holmes]

Peak Atlas.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

people get a grip with the WV-03 poll...it isn't complete and the republican running is polling below 50% in a district that her predecessor won by 44 points only two years ago.

Well that's great and all (unironically)...but the problem is that Ojeda was leading comfortably in the previous poll and many people thought it was lean D.

And while Bagel was overreacting, it is definitely possible that this poll could be bad news for Manchin as well. WV-03 is the part of the state he's going to have to run up the score in. I wish they asked questions about the Senate/gubernatorial races too, it would take almost zero extra effort and it would be pretty interesting to see the differences.
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There is no gubernatorial race here till 2020, but sure, why not.

[Beet]

Manchin would be in 7th heaven to have the 2012 West Virginia back. Between 2008 and 2012, it went from 13 points Republican to 27 points Republican, then in 2016 it became 42 points Republican. It was about 14-15 points every four years under Obama. I don't think Manchin is in trouble because of one Ojeda poll. I think he's in trouble because of the fundamentals of the state.

[Zaybay]

1. This is a poll conducted by landline and has had a rather shaky history.

2. The poll isnt even done yet.

3. The campaign season is starting

I love how Atlas thinks that a race is in their corner due to polling, and liking the candidate, and yet they think its titanium R when they get a poll that is slightly unfavorable(Im looking at you, Wallace haters!). Anyway, its clear that Miller will probably finish above Ojeda in this poll, but, as I stated before, this is not some god-tier level polling, and the part where voters actually care is coming up.

[Xing]

Meanwhile, the MN-03 poll is done, and Phillips finished a little over 9 points ahead, enough for it to be just outside the margin of error. So what's bigger news? That an incumbent Republican who won by double digits in 2016 while Clinton won easily is now losing by near double digits? Or that a Democrat is down by 6% so far in a poll of a district that Trump won by 50%?

Well this could bode really really badly for Manchin, so they are about equal.

This being bad news for Manchin doesn't follow. As an incumbent, he's certainly going to do better than Ojeda, possibly significantly better, and I doubt Ojeda is going to drag him down. It doesn't work like that. Also, we already do have several polls showing Manchin ahead, so this poll (again, so far) just suggests that Ojeda is underperforming Manchin.

[IceSpear]

There is no gubernatorial race here till 2020, but sure, why not.

I meant in general. Like ask about the Senate race in WV-03, both Senate races and the gubernatorial race in MN-03/MN-08, etc. It seems like it would be a lot more valuable and interesting than a bunch of the other boring questions they ask.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Meanwhile, the MN-03 poll is done, and Phillips finished a little over 9 points ahead, enough for it to be just outside the margin of error. So what's bigger news? That an incumbent Republican who won by double digits in 2016 while Clinton won easily is now losing by near double digits? Or that a Democrat is down by 6% so far in a poll of a district that Trump won by 50%?

Well this could bode really really badly for Manchin, so they are about equal.

This being bad news for Manchin doesn't follow. As an incumbent, he's certainly going to do better than Ojeda, possibly significantly better, and I doubt Ojeda is going to drag him down. It doesn't work like that. Also, we already do have several polls showing Manchin ahead, so this poll (again, so far) just suggests that Ojeda is underperforming Manchin.

I've heard some talk of Manchin not doing much better than Ojeda hear from smart peoples. If that is wrong though, Manchin has a tilt D race. Ojeda won't drag him down nearly no matter what LOL. Ojeda is still an amazingly strong candidate who is putting up a phenomenal performance here, and to even think he could drag any dem down is beyond delusional. Let's hope Manchin can outperform Ojeda here, otherwise it's bad news. Bruh, in terms of who leads, we got literally a dozen or so polls for Manchin and one GOP internal for Morrisey with an MOE lead under 50.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

There is no gubernatorial race here till 2020, but sure, why not.

I meant in general. Like ask about the Senate race in WV-03, both Senate races and the gubernatorial race in MN-03/MN-08, etc. It seems like it would be a lot more valuable and interesting than a bunch of the other boring questions they ask.

Yeah, I definitely agree here. I would also want them to ask who they voted for on the presidential level in the GE in 2016.

[Strong Candidate]

1. This is a poll conducted by landline and has had a rather shaky history.

2. The poll isnt even done yet.

3. The campaign season is starting

I love how Atlas thinks that a race is in their corner due to polling, and liking the candidate, and yet they think its titanium R when they get a poll that is slightly unfavorable(Im looking at you, Wallace haters!). Anyway, its clear that Miller will probably finish above Ojeda in this poll, but, as I stated before, this is not some god-tier level polling, and the part where voters actually care is coming up.

The poll does include cell phones; they actually called more cell phones than landlines! Anyway, I think the problem here is that West Virginia Democrats pretty much always fade down the stretch as the campaign heats up, so the fact that Ojeda is already down even as campaign season is starting is really bad news for him (unless the poll suddenly becomes pro-Ojeda in the last 120 responses). Miller also has lower name recognition, so she's more likely to gain from a vigorous campaign season.

[Zaybay]

1. This is a poll conducted by landline and has had a rather shaky history.

2. The poll isnt even done yet.

3. The campaign season is starting

I love how Atlas thinks that a race is in their corner due to polling, and liking the candidate, and yet they think its titanium R when they get a poll that is slightly unfavorable(Im looking at you, Wallace haters!). Anyway, its clear that Miller will probably finish above Ojeda in this poll, but, as I stated before, this is not some god-tier level polling, and the part where voters actually care is coming up.

The poll does include cell phones; they actually called more cell phones than landlines! Anyway, I think the problem here is that West Virginia Democrats pretty much always fade down the stretch as the campaign heats up, so the fact that Ojeda is already down even as campaign season is starting is really bad news for him (unless the poll suddenly becomes pro-Ojeda in the last 120 responses). Miller also has lower name recognition, so she's more likely to gain from a vigorous campaign season.

Usually Siena doesnt do cellphones, but that is a positive development.

As for the WVDEM party, there really isnt any precedent for this, and seems to stem from 2014, which was an R wave year. And I think its clear that Ojeda isnt a stooge for the WVDEMS.

And, also, this is just one pollster, one that has gotten rather odd results so far in many races, so I would take such polls with a grain of salt, especially since, according to their own numbers, Ojeda is actually leading with 2016 voters, but they were screened out.

And, lastly, normally, I would agree that, since Miller is lower in name rec, she has more to gain. But if you look at what she has so far, it seems that its worse for her to gain name rec. She is almost 50/50 for people hating her, and people who havent heard of Ojeda and Miller and are just ticking the R box would probably switch to Ojeda when finding out about Miller.

Anyway, I would rather debate this poll when its done.

[Pericles]

If you're making shaky assumptions about Manchin's chances based on Ojeda coming close to winning instead of outright winning, you should logically make assumptions about Clinton-Republican districts as well. Paulsen's (unexpected IMO) terrible showing, that would mean Democrats are likely picking up many other similar seats, eg CA-39 and CO-06. It would also portend that Democrats may also win other Clinton-Republican districts that were closer, just by narrower margins.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Miller also has lower name recognition, so she's more likely to gain from a vigorous campaign season.

In general it should be true that when both candidates have low name recognition, increasing name recognition will help both of them (and Miller has slightly less name recognition in the poll, so one might think it would help her slightly more).

However, this situation is different from that general case because when voters do not have name recognition for the candidates, they will default more or less to a generic ballot/generic partisanship. In this case, although WV-03 is traditionally Dem, Republicans would easily win a generic ballot at this point.

Therefore the advantage of higher name ID has more room to help Ojeda, because he can (at least potentially) benefit from making the race be less of a generic D vs. generic R race. But to anyone who has never heard of Ojeda, he is just generic D, and he is much less likely to get the vote of someone who thinks he is generic D than someone who has heard of him (if it were not the case that he could out-perform generic D, he would not be as competitive as he is even currently in the poll).

[IceSpear]

If you're making shaky assumptions about Manchin's chances based on Ojeda coming close to winning instead of outright winning, you should logically make assumptions about Clinton-Republican districts as well. Paulsen's (unexpected IMO) terrible showing, that would mean Democrats are likely picking up many other similar seats, eg CA-39 and CO-06. It would also portend that Democrats may also win other Clinton-Republican districts that were closer, just by narrower margins.

I'm pretty sure the vast majority of people here (including myself) think that Democrats are going to win the lion's share of Clinton districts.

[Pericles]

If you're making shaky assumptions about Manchin's chances based on Ojeda coming close to winning instead of outright winning, you should logically make assumptions about Clinton-Republican districts as well. Paulsen's (unexpected IMO) terrible showing, that would mean Democrats are likely picking up many other similar seats, eg CA-39 and CO-06. It would also portend that Democrats may also win other Clinton-Republican districts that were closer, just by narrower margins.

I'm pretty sure the vast majority of people here (including myself) think that Democrats are going to win the lion's share of Clinton districts.

Well in that scenario they'd very likely win the House(even though the Clinton districts don't quite get to 23 districts, if they get say 18 pickups it will be very easy for Democrats to pick up a few more seats to win the majority). And I think the Democrats are underrated with some of these districts, and even if people think they'll win the lion's share that doesn't lead them to expect Paulsen to lose by double digits.