Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[Estrella]

"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result" - a certain Jew (and almost president of Israel)

^{(I'm not the first one to use this quote, right?)}

[Estrella]

It seems likely there will be 4th elections (and 5th, and 6th ....)
IMO easiest solution to end the gridlock was 1-vs-1 direct PM election.
Is any parties suggesting this?

That was tried thrice and all three times it didn't produce a result much more decisive than a Knesset-only election would have been. Unless you plan to dramatically increase the PM's power, a direction election is a waste of time, because the PM can't govern without Knesset anyway.

[Estrella]

One report says that Umm al Fahm, a large Arab town in the Triangle region of the lower Galilee, has a turnout of 33% as of 1400.  That is roughly the TOTAL turnout from September. Localities don't publish their own turnout data, and numbers usually come from the parties running. So season to taste.

Turnout in Umm Al Fahm was 51% in September. I have learnt to ignore these election day turnout for specific towns or sector, and just assume that they are made up.

The September number was just my mistake. The 33% turnout number for 1400 turnout appears to be real, which would put Umm al Fahm well above the September.

Also, reports from the Haredi sector are that turnout is flacid. That would honestly surprise me.

Maybe the synagogues are more concerned with Purim than calling people and getting out the vote as they usually do?

[Estrella]

If Lieberman falls below the threshold and the result is 60-60...then what? It's unlikely, but perhaps not totally implausible. Would the Telem part of Blue and White switch sides, given enough bribes incentives?

[Estrella]

Okay, so what was the point of past year?

[Estrella]

Why is no one talking about the fact The Jewish Home went from 12 seats to 1 in just five years?

Because it's really 6, Yamina is a combination of Jewish Home, National Union which were part of those 12, and Bennet and Shaked's new party, who were running JH at the time.

At this point, is there any ideological difference between Yamina and Likud?  Is it solely separate because Bennet and Netenyahu hate each other?

Partially- Shaked and Bennet would be in Likud if Netanyahu didn't dislike them (at least Shaked). But Yamina is a necessary party because it represents a very specific constituency- religious zionists. These people always had their own party, and while it could change, it won't change for now.

This is probably a very complicated question, but what is the reason there are (and have been in the past) so many constantly splitting/merging religious zionist parties?

[Estrella]

Delaying the trial actually makes sense to prevent lots of people congregating in one place and spreading the disease, and it might well happen.

The iron law of Israeli politics: Bibi is one massively lucky bastard.

[Estrella]

Unity government is happening. Expect news tomorrow night.

Temporary for Corona or long term? If long term, it begs the question of the immunity law, the hypothetical law barring indited people from govt, and what happens when Bibi ties to fight back in the future.

Temporary to become permanent. Yesh Attid and Telem might not join in.

So it's not an actual unity government but just the Bibi Bloc with Gantz thrown in? He'd be an utter cretin to accept, and any leftist who voted KL a fool.

If Gantz/Hosen L'Yisrael somehow vanished into thin air, where would their MKs go? By which I mean: where are they ideologically, if anywhere at all?

[Estrella]

Negotiations now appear to be dead and Gantz is speaking to the country in a few minutes as his mandate expires. Elections are likely in late July.

!אאאאאאאאאאאאאא

This is unbelievable. It's peak entitlement from politicians to treat the whole country like a huge kindergarten playground. The worst thing is that at this point I'm not even sure they're doing this because of principles and ideological red lines they're unwilling to cross - they're just settling scores. I'm betting that not just Ben Gurion, but also Begin and Jabotinsky have begun turning in their graves.

[Estrella]

A poll for Channel 12, from Haaretz. Compared to the election results.

Likud 40 (+4)
Kahol Lavan* 19  (+4**)
Joint List 15 (±0)
Yesh Atid+Telem 10 (-8**)
Shas 9 (±0)
Yamina 8 (+2)
United Torah Judaism 7 (±0)
Yisrael Beiteinu 7 (±0)
Meretz 5 (+2)***
Labor, Gesher, Otzma not getting in.

Honest Right 64
Dishonest Right (YB, KL) 26
Centre, Left and Arabs 30

* This is just Gantz now, so does the KL brand technically still exist? I imagine Gantz wouldn't want to associate himself with the name, so he might contest the next election under the banner of his old party, Hosen L'Yisrael.

** In the election, KL won 33 seats - 15 for Gantz, 13 for Lapid and 5 for Ya'alon

*** The L-G-M alliance won 7 seats, 3 of which went to Meretz