2020 New York Redistricting

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Cervas is kind of an old school neutral map drawer. It is the kind of map that I would have drawn 10 years ago. The metrics are:

1. Minimizing chops is job one.

to be continued ...

Torie, we love you but sometimes you need to take the L. Any truly neutral map would have a Trump seat for NY 19. And maybe an orthodox seat. Dems clearly got a break here

I say this with all due respect, but what are you talking about?  There is no even remotely compelling argument for an orthodox seat existing on anything even remotely resembling a neutral map.  And NY-19 would be a Biden seat on most neutral maps.

A compact South Brooklyn seat is obvious. If race was not a metric, this seat should exist. Even when taking the VRA into account, it is very easy to send the Black seats West instead of South. There would very likely not be two Trump seats in NYC on a neutral map however.

Just because the previous map goes South doesn't mean every fair map needs to. Cervas clearly didn't want to stir the pot too much, keeping Jeffries seat the same and only giving the GOP a very marginal seat in SI, rather than the Trump +10 seat that's easily possible.

A neutral map would have no Trump seats in NYC.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why in God's holy name did Mondaire Jones decide to run in NY-10

Guess he felt that national Democrats would support SPM in the NY 17 primary and he would get cooked against Bowmaan in NY 16.

I don’t think it’s a sure thing SPM would’ve gotten strong support from national Dems.  He’s likely pissed off lots of people to the point that I doubt he’ll be in a leadership post ever again after this cycle.  Even if he was gonna get national backing though, Jones would’ve likely wiped the floor with SPM in the primary.  My guess is that either Jones was either bought off with promises of support from SPM’s fundraising network or promises of a seat on some committee/subcommittee.  

As for primarying Bowman, Jones would have no path to victory and could end up splitting the progressive vote enough for that guy who is trying to primary Bowman from the right to win.  It’d be Jones vs. Bowman vs. a really well-funded (IIRC) Problem Starters Caucus-style #ModerateHero elected official from Westchester County.  So that was always a non-starter.  

Also, Sean Patrick Baloney needs to resign as DCCC chair and if he won’t, hopefully there is a way to force him out.  He’s shown he is woefully incapable of being a team player and you’ve gotta be one of you’re gonna take that job.  Plus, it’s just as important for moderates like SPM to be team players as it is for folks like AOC to do so.  And if folks like SPM refuse to do so, then they need to be held accountable.

Some other thoughts:

- I still think the courts were wrong to strike down the Dem maps and there’s certainly no reasonable justification for not allowing the legislature to redraw the maps*, but for the most part, this isn’t too unreasonable given the task the SM was given.  

- Long Island seems pretty reasonable and I like that the final map cleaned up Buffalo a bit

- Putting Saratoga Springs with Albany was a great idea for several reasons, so that was nice to see

- I really like the Syracuse to Oneida County district.  Honestly, upstate seems pretty good in general, although I have some minor quibbles with NY-19/NY-18 (I wish they could’ve found a way to put all of Kingston in NY-19.  I don’t love the way Ulster was carved up, although putting Tompkins County there was definitely the right call).  

- My biggest complaint about the map is NY-11.  I feel pretty strongly that southern Manhattan should go with Staten Island via ferry connectivity.  I can understand why one might disagree and I expected to be unhappy with what Staten Island got paired with, but this one is still pretty frustrating.

- On the other hand, my favorite thing about the map is definitely the absence of an Orthodox seat.  All due respect to Torie, but both from a fair maps standpoint and speaking as a Jewish-American, I am really glad to see the special master didn’t go that route.

- I am now even angrier than I was before at Delgado for ditching NY-19, this seat would definitely be winnable for him.  Hopefully Michelle Hinchey runs here, but I imagine she’d probably want to wait for a better environment.  Pat Ryan is running in NY-18 in the November GE.  

*Striking down the maps and allowing a redraw would’ve been one thing, but the ruling we got was just some Cuomo-appointed ConservaDems (one of whom IIRC was basically an outright DINO who Cuomo went all out to get on the court despite real opposition from a number of NY Democrats) trying to load the dice as much as they could for the Republicans by doing all they could to cut the Democratic legislature out of the process altogether.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

SP Maloney needs to be fired from his job. What a moron

Rumors are that Jones has internals that showed him trailing so he's fine carpetbagging . And the main goal of the DCCC is to protect incumbents and if Jones wants to go south then SPM doesn't have to move north.

The Intercept is the only place I've seen that and they're not a credible source. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1b48dace-ddd4-4244-baf9-4abce0ad0c97

So here’s a compromise map I’d bring to the table if I was the GOP. This map:
-Concedes NY-03 (now NY-04) as a Biden+30 sink for Tom Suozzi consisting of North Hempstead, the blue core of Hempstead, and parts of Queens. In exchange, D’Esposito picks up most of the rest of Oyster Bay, making his new NY-04 (now NY-03) a narrow Trump district that he should easily win next year.
-Swaps out Westchester for Orange in NY-17, making the seat a Biden+0.5 seat that is pretty much safe for Lawler and trending R due to Orthodox Jews. Meanwhile, turns NY-18 into a seat that goes up the eastern border and into Ulster County, at Biden+18 Pat Ryan never has to worry about a competitive election again.
-Has NY-19 trade Tompkins for Oneida, making it a seat Trump won by high single digits, whereas NY-22 is now a seat Biden won by almost 20 points.

No other seats are touched. R’s have two marginal Suffolk County seats, a Trump+7 NY-11, and three upstate R sinks, as before. D’s get the rest.

No deal.  No offense, but if I’m NY Dems then I don’t even see that proposal as worth discussing and treat it as a non-starter.  Republicans have no leverage here and that’s far too Republican a map to be worth discussing.  Frankly, there’s no reason for Democrats to even pretend to negotiate with Republicans, but certainly not if this is the best they can do.  


My counter offer is Democrats gerrymander out D’Esposito, Malliotakis, Williams, Lawler, Molinaro, and significantly weaken LaLotta while strengthening Ryan and making NY-3 more Democratic.  If Republicans reject it then Democrats ignore them and do it anyway.  Period, no further discussion necessary.  I mean this in the nicest way possible and certainly not meanly toward you, but why should any Democrat give a crap what Republicans think about redistricting in NY?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Isn't there historical precedence for a Staten Island-Manhattan district? It seems like it might be easy to uphold if the other NYC districts are kept tidy.

I have to say I'm struck by how weak Schumer's performance was in Long Island. There has to be some serious temptation to cede two R districts in Long Island. I imagine a lot will depend on how the NY-03 special turns out.

Well, for Long Island you can always cede one Safe R sink and another Lean R seat. In this map...

1st is Trump+1
2nd is Trump+14
3rd is Biden+31 (and very nearly Hispanic plurality)
4th is Biden+38 (black plurality)
6th is Biden+31 (46% Asian)

No reason to do so

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Is the commission pledging not to change the old court map?

Objectively, the existing map is pretty good. I can see why they’d want to keep it similar to what it is rather than letting the legislature draw a disgusting gerrymander.

The Republicans may want it but the Dems on the commission may try to punt it to the legislature like Ohio's Republicans did.

One can only hope; the existing map is a piece of crap!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Is the commission pledging not to change the old court map?

Objectively, the existing map is pretty good. I can see why they’d want to keep it similar to what it is rather than letting the legislature draw a disgusting gerrymander.

The Republicans may want it but the Dems on the commission may try to punt it to the legislature like Ohio's Republicans did.

One can only hope; the existing map is a piece of crap!

Why do you think the current map is bad? If you have actual reasoning, I’m more than willing to hear it out.

Until there is a national ban on gerrymandering (which I strongly support) any New York congressional map that isn’t a strong Democratic gerrymander is awful.  Anyway, beyond that, I genuinely believe the 2022 NY redistricting case was wrongly decided (thankfully, that decision has been effectively reversed).  So I take issue with it being imposed at all even beyond partisan considerations.    I’d also argue that it is a soft-Republican gerrymander rather than a fair map which is pretty ridiculous to have for New York.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Is the commission pledging not to change the old court map?

Objectively, the existing map is pretty good. I can see why they’d want to keep it similar to what it is rather than letting the legislature draw a disgusting gerrymander.

The Republicans may want it but the Dems on the commission may try to punt it to the legislature like Ohio's Republicans did.

One can only hope; the existing map is a piece of crap!

Why do you think the current map is bad? If you have actual reasoning, I’m more than willing to hear it out.

Until there is a national ban on gerrymandering (which I strongly support) any New York congressional map that isn’t a strong Democratic gerrymander is awful.  Anyway, beyond that, I genuinely believe the 2022 NY redistricting case was wrongly decided (thankfully, that decision has been effectively reversed).  So I take issue with it being imposed at all even beyond partisan considerations.    I’d also argue that it is a soft-Republican gerrymander rather than a fair map which is pretty ridiculous to have for New York.

The New York State Counstition has proviosons banning gerrymandering; if it's outrageous for the republican to subvert those provions in Ohio and Utath why is it ok for democrats to do in New York ?

Because I oppose unilateral disarmament; national ban or bust.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Passed the commision 9-1. I know a lot of you don't want to believe it but the deal has been made and their is a 99% chance this is close to the final map (maybe minor changes within 2%).

Imagine actually believing this

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The 2% rule is the biggest hurdle for Dems here. Yes they can repeal it but it increases the odds of a GOP lawsuit succeeding because they'd definitely have a case of partisan intent from Dems. I think Dems biggest priority should be maps that boost Dems and is least vulnerable to lawsuit.

This map doesn’t fix any of the issues from the prior one.  I’m sure that the Judges in Albany will recognize that in their infinite wisdom

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/nydems/status/1758287925144703009?t=a2WI36TEdR3pZeiBJyuPrA&a...
Lol it's so dead.

This guy is slime, but he knows he's slime, and knows what he needs to do to keep people happy and himself in a job.

What a pathetic statement from someone who is killing fair maps.

Why should New York have to play by the rules when North Carolina and Texas can gerrymander to their heart’s desire?

The reverse is also true.

Why N.C. and Texas play by the rules when Nevada, NM, NJ, IL, OR, ect ect can gerrymander ?

The Democrats have gerrymandered so much, Republicans need the to win the P.V. by 2+ to have a majority, and that's without a NY gerrymander.

Democrats want to ban gerrymandering, but oppose unilateral disarmament.  Republicans oppose banning gerrymandering.  It’s not the same.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/e04f3c40-a052-4df0-9149-2ef3ad95530f

How does this as a “soft” gerrymander look?

NY-01: Trump+6.8
NY-02: Biden+6.2
NY-03: Biden+8.1
NY-04: Biden+14.4
NY-11: Biden+0.6
NY-17: Biden+11.3
NY-18: Biden+11.1
NY-19: Biden+5.8
NY-22: Biden+11.3

No deal, way too Republican a map

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/nydems/status/1758287925144703009?t=a2WI36TEdR3pZeiBJyuPrA&a...
Lol it's so dead.

This guy is slime, but he knows he's slime, and knows what he needs to do to keep people happy and himself in a job.

What a pathetic statement from someone who is killing fair maps.

Why should New York have to play by the rules when North Carolina and Texas can gerrymander to their heart’s desire?

The reverse is also true.

Why N.C. and Texas play by the rules when Nevada, NM, NJ, IL, OR, ect ect can gerrymander ?

The Democrats have gerrymandered so much, Republicans need the to win the P.V. by 2+ to have a majority, and that's without a NY gerrymander.

Democrats want to ban gerrymandering, but oppose unilateral disarmament.  Republicans oppose banning gerrymandering.  It’s not the same.

That isn't really true as the Democratic definition of "gerrymandering" is outcome rather than process based. The Wi Supreme Court ruling basically obligates partisan gerrymandering to ensure "geography is not destiny".

So I doubt Democrats would back a legal ban on the consideration of partisan outcomes in redistricting.

They would insist on some sort of efficiency gap/proportionality requirement

That’s not partisan gerrymandering

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Downside of that map is Jones didn't want to be forced into a primary with Bowman in 2022 so may feel the same now.

Lawler would probably try his luck in Pat Ryan's seat.

I doubt it.  Back then Jones did polling and found Bowman easily beating him.  That is not going to be the case this time around.  And Ryan would wipe the floor with Lawler

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1760338496835801349

Old DRA map: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::8917cd49-860d-4755-ad21-48c65f36d5b0

This is just Wasserman being clueless

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/26/new-york-democrats-house-map-00143307

The current thinking is that lawmakers will stick to the confines of 2012 legislation that says districts they draw can’t vary by more than 2 percent from the ones in the commission’s plans. So at least 761,000 people in a 777,000-person district as drawn by the commission would need to be the same in the amended map passed by the Legislature.

That means there can’t be many dramatic overhauls from the maps drawn by the commission — but there will still be some changes.

Sounds like Republican wishcasting

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The Assembly has posted a map. It will be interesting to see if the senate signs on or diverges like it seemingly wants to.


https://newyork.redistrictingandyou.org/?districtType=cd&propA=cong_nyirc_20240215&propB=cong_legamend_20240226&selected=-73.77410380901841,40.98053601355112#%26map=6.86/42.844/-77.03

Changes:

NY-03 withdraws from the south Oyster Bay/Massapequa region and some of those suburbs go in NY-02. NY-03 trades them for Huntingdon and NY-01 picks up the parts NY-02 east of Mastic Beach. Makes the marginal NY-01 go from marginally Biden to marginally Trump.

No changes to most of lower NYC, including not giving Jefferies the Barclay center or his house. Probably ensures his disapproval of this one as well.

NY-16 trades Wakefield for Eastchester and Co-op city. Despite the framing of this last night, this probably marginally hurts Bowman. This requires NY-15 dropping some of the south Bronx to NY-14.

Minor changes to NY-17 in Beekman town in Dutchess.

NY-18 still contains all of Orange unlike he IRC map. It gets the rest of Duchess but loses much of the interior of Ulster compared to both previous plans. This is to keep Ny-19 competitive, but one wonders in Ryan would aprove of the outcome coming from Ulster.

Upstate west of Binghampton is the same as the IRC map. East of it though there are changes. NY-20 compacts in Saratoga to grab Amsterdam. NY-19 now goes into Rensselaer.

Time for the State Senate to kill it with fire!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

NY Dems need to get Latimer tf out of Albany. I’m sorry but your personal congressional ambitions come second to preventing the rise of fascism in this country.

In what universe is this even remotely Latimer’s fault?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

NY Dems need to get Latimer tf out of Albany. I’m sorry but your personal congressional ambitions come second to preventing the rise of fascism in this country.

In what universe is this even remotely Latimer’s fault?

Because Latimer’s demand to get as many white liberals as possible in his district make it harder to flip NY-17. The general consensus is that Lawler has a very good chance at winning re-election under the current lines because of Rockland’s exploding orthodox population (unlike D’Esposito or Williams who are widely seen as goners).

Except, that’s not what happened.  This map doesn’t even help Latimer, it helps Bowman.

So if I’m understanding this correctly. Democrats don’t feel they have the votes in the COA to keep another Hochulmander in place?

You are not.  This is the first NY Assembly map and almost certainly DOA in the State Senate

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So what I'm gathering is that, broadly, removing Bowman is far more important to NY legislators than netting Dems a couple seats?

The Assembly’s proposed map literally helps Bowman.  This is such a weird and nonsensical narrative

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If they're not going to make any changes to NY-17 and Rockland really is a ticking time bomb due to the growing Orthodox population, it might make more sense to just fully shore up Lawler. Rockland, Orange, and Sullivan Counties put together are just slightly more than the population of one CD and they narrowly voted for Trump. Doing this would also shore up Pat Ryan and allow for a bluer seat to be drawn to get rid of Molinaro.

Another thing I was thinking about -- there is a lot of talk about what part of Brooklyn and/or Manhattan to put with Staten Island...but if Dems really want to go aggressive, couldn't they just split Staten Island? Put some of it with Brooklyn (connection via the Verrazzano-Narrows bridge) and some of it with Lower Manhattan (connection via the ferry).

The would have to nuke the 2% law to do that. This would be evidence for partisan motive for COA. I am not sure if the house want to risk that.

This proposal already goes above 2% for the districts they change. They are de facto ignoring it.

R already said they won't sue this map. If they go more aggressive, they will get sued, and will lose for sure since they clearly violated the law.

Nah, this map is probably DOA.  Democrats will likely win whatever BS lawsuit Republicans try to pull given that judicial activist DINOs no longer control NY’s highest court.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wild how people think a map that’s likely DOA in the State Senate is gonna pass

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wild how people think a map that’s likely DOA in the State Senate is gonna pass

You were saying?
https://twitter.com/joncampbellny/status/1762927705316589732?s=46

Extremely surprised, but no one gets it right all the time *shrug*


Anyway, hopefully Jeffries can kill it

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/kevinfreytv/status/1762935107000611315?s=46

Gross