2020 New York Redistricting

[Gass3268]

Lol

https://twitter.com/MrSantosNY/status/1734675608737612045?s=20

[Progressive Pessimist]

Lol

https://twitter.com/MrSantosNY/status/1734675608737612045?s=20

Does he do parties?

[Tekken_Guy]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1b48dace-ddd4-4244-baf9-4abce0ad0c97

So here’s a compromise map I’d bring to the table if I was the GOP. This map:
-Concedes NY-03 (now NY-04) as a Biden+30 sink for Tom Suozzi consisting of North Hempstead, the blue core of Hempstead, and parts of Queens. In exchange, D’Esposito picks up most of the rest of Oyster Bay, making his new NY-04 (now NY-03) a narrow Trump district that he should easily win next year.
-Swaps out Westchester for Orange in NY-17, making the seat a Biden+0.5 seat that is pretty much safe for Lawler and trending R due to Orthodox Jews. Meanwhile, turns NY-18 into a seat that goes up the eastern border and into Ulster County, at Biden+18 Pat Ryan never has to worry about a competitive election again.
-Has NY-19 trade Tompkins for Oneida, making it a seat Trump won by high single digits, whereas NY-22 is now a seat Biden won by almost 20 points.

No other seats are touched. R’s have two marginal Suffolk County seats, a Trump+7 NY-11, and three upstate R sinks, as before. D’s get the rest.

[Devils30]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1b48dace-ddd4-4244-baf9-4abce0ad0c97

So here’s a compromise map I’d bring to the table if I was the GOP. This map:
-Concedes NY-03 (now NY-04) as a Biden+30 sink for Tom Suozzi consisting of North Hempstead, the blue core of Hempstead, and parts of Queens. In exchange, D’Esposito picks up most of the rest of Oyster Bay, making his new NY-04 (now NY-03) a narrow Trump district that he should easily win next year.
-Swaps out Westchester for Orange in NY-17, making the seat a Biden+0.5 seat that is pretty much safe for Lawler and trending R due to Orthodox Jews. Meanwhile, turns NY-18 into a seat that goes up the eastern border and into Ulster County, at Biden+18 Pat Ryan never has to worry about a competitive election again.
-Has NY-19 trade Tompkins for Oneida, making it a seat Trump won by high single digits, whereas NY-22 is now a seat Biden won by almost 20 points.

No other seats are touched. R’s have two marginal Suffolk County seats, a Trump+7 NY-11, and three upstate R sinks, as before. D’s get the rest.

Dems will never agree to this in a million years. Why make Lawler safer when you can eliminate him with a Biden +15 seat. No way Dems will give Molinaro a red seat either, I expect something like the original NY-19 that was around Biden +10. Even NY-1, the original version was like Biden +12. Basicalyly the court gave Dems the go ahead to gerrymander and they should try for at least 21-5 if not 22-4. D'Esposito would get 55-60% in that NY-3 but Dems have no reason to help him, even if he's a very mainstream center-right politician.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1b48dace-ddd4-4244-baf9-4abce0ad0c97

So here’s a compromise map I’d bring to the table if I was the GOP. This map:
-Concedes NY-03 (now NY-04) as a Biden+30 sink for Tom Suozzi consisting of North Hempstead, the blue core of Hempstead, and parts of Queens. In exchange, D’Esposito picks up most of the rest of Oyster Bay, making his new NY-04 (now NY-03) a narrow Trump district that he should easily win next year.
-Swaps out Westchester for Orange in NY-17, making the seat a Biden+0.5 seat that is pretty much safe for Lawler and trending R due to Orthodox Jews. Meanwhile, turns NY-18 into a seat that goes up the eastern border and into Ulster County, at Biden+18 Pat Ryan never has to worry about a competitive election again.
-Has NY-19 trade Tompkins for Oneida, making it a seat Trump won by high single digits, whereas NY-22 is now a seat Biden won by almost 20 points.

No other seats are touched. R’s have two marginal Suffolk County seats, a Trump+7 NY-11, and three upstate R sinks, as before. D’s get the rest.

No deal.  No offense, but if I’m NY Dems then I don’t even see that proposal as worth discussing and treat it as a non-starter.  Republicans have no leverage here and that’s far too Republican a map to be worth discussing.  Frankly, there’s no reason for Democrats to even pretend to negotiate with Republicans, but certainly not if this is the best they can do.  


My counter offer is Democrats gerrymander out D’Esposito, Malliotakis, Williams, Lawler, Molinaro, and significantly weaken LaLotta while strengthening Ryan and making NY-3 more Democratic.  If Republicans reject it then Democrats ignore them and do it anyway.  Period, no further discussion necessary.  I mean this in the nicest way possible and certainly not meanly toward you, but why should any Democrat give a crap what Republicans think about redistricting in NY?

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1b48dace-ddd4-4244-baf9-4abce0ad0c97

So here’s a compromise map I’d bring to the table if I was the GOP. This map:
-Concedes NY-03 (now NY-04) as a Biden+30 sink for Tom Suozzi consisting of North Hempstead, the blue core of Hempstead, and parts of Queens. In exchange, D’Esposito picks up most of the rest of Oyster Bay, making his new NY-04 (now NY-03) a narrow Trump district that he should easily win next year.
-Swaps out Westchester for Orange in NY-17, making the seat a Biden+0.5 seat that is pretty much safe for Lawler and trending R due to Orthodox Jews. Meanwhile, turns NY-18 into a seat that goes up the eastern border and into Ulster County, at Biden+18 Pat Ryan never has to worry about a competitive election again.
-Has NY-19 trade Tompkins for Oneida, making it a seat Trump won by high single digits, whereas NY-22 is now a seat Biden won by almost 20 points.

No other seats are touched. R’s have two marginal Suffolk County seats, a Trump+7 NY-11, and three upstate R sinks, as before. D’s get the rest.

Dems would never agree to a 17D - 9R map, even if those 17 D seats are all relatively safe. Dems would probably prefer the Nassau config closer to what it is today with making NY-03 into a double-digit Biden seat by exchanging some precincts in Queens and not taking NY-04 for granted in the future.

There's also no reason for Democrats to not make at least half an attempt to go after Malliotakis, even if it doesn't end up being one the more extreme configs we see using the Gowanus Expressway as a shortcut to hyper liberal parts of Brooklyn.

Also Dems would try to shore up at least 2 of the central valley seats if not all 3.

[Devils30]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1b48dace-ddd4-4244-baf9-4abce0ad0c97

So here’s a compromise map I’d bring to the table if I was the GOP. This map:
-Concedes NY-03 (now NY-04) as a Biden+30 sink for Tom Suozzi consisting of North Hempstead, the blue core of Hempstead, and parts of Queens. In exchange, D’Esposito picks up most of the rest of Oyster Bay, making his new NY-04 (now NY-03) a narrow Trump district that he should easily win next year.
-Swaps out Westchester for Orange in NY-17, making the seat a Biden+0.5 seat that is pretty much safe for Lawler and trending R due to Orthodox Jews. Meanwhile, turns NY-18 into a seat that goes up the eastern border and into Ulster County, at Biden+18 Pat Ryan never has to worry about a competitive election again.
-Has NY-19 trade Tompkins for Oneida, making it a seat Trump won by high single digits, whereas NY-22 is now a seat Biden won by almost 20 points.

No other seats are touched. R’s have two marginal Suffolk County seats, a Trump+7 NY-11, and three upstate R sinks, as before. D’s get the rest.

Dems would never agree to a 17D - 9R map, even if those 17 D seats are all relatively safe. Dems would probably prefer the Nassau config closer to what it is today with making NY-03 into a double-digit Biden seat by exchanging some precincts in Queens and not taking NY-04 for granted in the future.

There's also no reason for Democrats to not make at least half an attempt to go after Malliotakis, even if it doesn't end up being one the more extreme configs we see using the Gowanus Expressway as a shortcut to hyper liberal parts of Brooklyn.

Also Dems would try to shore up at least 2 of the central valley seats if not all 3.

I do not expect NY-4 to significantly change in the redraw. It's a blue enough seat, Dems just did not adequately campaign there in 2022 and D'Esposito is a very strong candidate. If the GOP hangs on here it's probably a sign of Democratic decline with Jewish voters, something that may happen soon but less likely with Biden or a mainstream Dem on the ballot.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1b48dace-ddd4-4244-baf9-4abce0ad0c97

So here’s a compromise map I’d bring to the table if I was the GOP. This map:
-Concedes NY-03 (now NY-04) as a Biden+30 sink for Tom Suozzi consisting of North Hempstead, the blue core of Hempstead, and parts of Queens. In exchange, D’Esposito picks up most of the rest of Oyster Bay, making his new NY-04 (now NY-03) a narrow Trump district that he should easily win next year.
-Swaps out Westchester for Orange in NY-17, making the seat a Biden+0.5 seat that is pretty much safe for Lawler and trending R due to Orthodox Jews. Meanwhile, turns NY-18 into a seat that goes up the eastern border and into Ulster County, at Biden+18 Pat Ryan never has to worry about a competitive election again.
-Has NY-19 trade Tompkins for Oneida, making it a seat Trump won by high single digits, whereas NY-22 is now a seat Biden won by almost 20 points.

No other seats are touched. R’s have two marginal Suffolk County seats, a Trump+7 NY-11, and three upstate R sinks, as before. D’s get the rest.

Dems would never agree to a 17D - 9R map, even if those 17 D seats are all relatively safe. Dems would probably prefer the Nassau config closer to what it is today with making NY-03 into a double-digit Biden seat by exchanging some precincts in Queens and not taking NY-04 for granted in the future.

There's also no reason for Democrats to not make at least half an attempt to go after Malliotakis, even if it doesn't end up being one the more extreme configs we see using the Gowanus Expressway as a shortcut to hyper liberal parts of Brooklyn.

Also Dems would try to shore up at least 2 of the central valley seats if not all 3.

I do not expect NY-4 to significantly change in the redraw. It's a blue enough seat, Dems just did not adequately campaign there in 2022 and D'Esposito is a very strong candidate. If the GOP hangs on here it's probably a sign of Democratic decline with Jewish voters, something that may happen soon but less likely with Biden or a mainstream Dem on the ballot.

I’m interested to see how NY-03 looks. If it resembles its 2010s incarnation then it’s safer for Ds than the current version, but not much different from NY-04’s partisan lean.

[Nyvin]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1b48dace-ddd4-4244-baf9-4abce0ad0c97

So here’s a compromise map I’d bring to the table if I was the GOP. This map:
-Concedes NY-03 (now NY-04) as a Biden+30 sink for Tom Suozzi consisting of North Hempstead, the blue core of Hempstead, and parts of Queens. In exchange, D’Esposito picks up most of the rest of Oyster Bay, making his new NY-04 (now NY-03) a narrow Trump district that he should easily win next year.
-Swaps out Westchester for Orange in NY-17, making the seat a Biden+0.5 seat that is pretty much safe for Lawler and trending R due to Orthodox Jews. Meanwhile, turns NY-18 into a seat that goes up the eastern border and into Ulster County, at Biden+18 Pat Ryan never has to worry about a competitive election again.
-Has NY-19 trade Tompkins for Oneida, making it a seat Trump won by high single digits, whereas NY-22 is now a seat Biden won by almost 20 points.

No other seats are touched. R’s have two marginal Suffolk County seats, a Trump+7 NY-11, and three upstate R sinks, as before. D’s get the rest.

What's the compromise?  The only thing of significance the R's would give up here is NY-22.  Everything else is drawn completely in their favor.   The Long Island seats are a straight up Republican gerrymander and would probably be against commission rules.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1b48dace-ddd4-4244-baf9-4abce0ad0c97

So here’s a compromise map I’d bring to the table if I was the GOP. This map:
-Concedes NY-03 (now NY-04) as a Biden+30 sink for Tom Suozzi consisting of North Hempstead, the blue core of Hempstead, and parts of Queens. In exchange, D’Esposito picks up most of the rest of Oyster Bay, making his new NY-04 (now NY-03) a narrow Trump district that he should easily win next year.
-Swaps out Westchester for Orange in NY-17, making the seat a Biden+0.5 seat that is pretty much safe for Lawler and trending R due to Orthodox Jews. Meanwhile, turns NY-18 into a seat that goes up the eastern border and into Ulster County, at Biden+18 Pat Ryan never has to worry about a competitive election again.
-Has NY-19 trade Tompkins for Oneida, making it a seat Trump won by high single digits, whereas NY-22 is now a seat Biden won by almost 20 points.

No other seats are touched. R’s have two marginal Suffolk County seats, a Trump+7 NY-11, and three upstate R sinks, as before. D’s get the rest.

What's the compromise?  The only thing of significance the R's would give up here is NY-22.  Everything else is drawn completely in their favor.   The Long Island seats are a straight up Republican gerrymander and would probably be against commission rules.

They gave up a seat in Nassau and NY-18.

[Nyvin]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1b48dace-ddd4-4244-baf9-4abce0ad0c97

So here’s a compromise map I’d bring to the table if I was the GOP. This map:
-Concedes NY-03 (now NY-04) as a Biden+30 sink for Tom Suozzi consisting of North Hempstead, the blue core of Hempstead, and parts of Queens. In exchange, D’Esposito picks up most of the rest of Oyster Bay, making his new NY-04 (now NY-03) a narrow Trump district that he should easily win next year.
-Swaps out Westchester for Orange in NY-17, making the seat a Biden+0.5 seat that is pretty much safe for Lawler and trending R due to Orthodox Jews. Meanwhile, turns NY-18 into a seat that goes up the eastern border and into Ulster County, at Biden+18 Pat Ryan never has to worry about a competitive election again.
-Has NY-19 trade Tompkins for Oneida, making it a seat Trump won by high single digits, whereas NY-22 is now a seat Biden won by almost 20 points.

No other seats are touched. R’s have two marginal Suffolk County seats, a Trump+7 NY-11, and three upstate R sinks, as before. D’s get the rest.

What's the compromise?  The only thing of significance the R's would give up here is NY-22.  Everything else is drawn completely in their favor.   The Long Island seats are a straight up Republican gerrymander and would probably be against commission rules.

They gave up a seat in Nassau and NY-18.

That's not giving up seats...that's creating Dem vote sinks to make the surrounding seats more R.

[Dan the Roman]

There are a few procedural limitations that make this more like Florida than NC.

In NC there was NO clause in the state constitution addressing gerrymandering and the court left in place the county rules for the legislature.

New York does have a Constitutional prohibition against partisan gerrymandering in addition to a mandated commission and two-thirds requirements for overriding it.

Florida does as well, and the NY SC like the Florida one is making clear they will interpret those clauses in the most limited way possible that maintains deniability, but they cannot simply state, as the new NC majority did, that they have no say. Hence that segment about the Chinese community.

I don't think the Court of Appeals is asking for a compromise between Democrats and Republicans. But they are asking for a compromise between Democrats and the law, namely for the Democrats to provide something that the court sign off on for non-partisan reasons.

That 26-0 map would not stand even with this court for instance. And given the 2022 results, and non-events in Ohio, Democrats might settle for something closer to 20-3-3 rather than a "solid" 22-4.

[Skill and Chance]

There are a few procedural limitations that make this more like Florida than NC.

In NC there was NO clause in the state constitution addressing gerrymandering and the court left in place the county rules for the legislature.

New York does have a Constitutional prohibition against partisan gerrymandering in addition to a mandated commission and two-thirds requirements for overriding it.

Florida does as well, and the NY SC like the Florida one is making clear they will interpret those clauses in the most limited way possible that maintains deniability, but they cannot simply state, as the new NC majority did, that they have no say. Hence that segment about the Chinese community.

I don't think the Court of Appeals is asking for a compromise between Democrats and Republicans. But they are asking for a compromise between Democrats and the law, namely for the Democrats to provide something that the court sign off on for non-partisan reasons.

That 26-0 map would not stand even with this court for instance. And given the 2022 results, and non-events in Ohio, Democrats might settle for something closer to 20-3-3 rather than a "solid" 22-4.

The original Hochulmander was a tied delegation waiting to happen anyway.  Something like 20/6 could be stable for the decade and at least as justifiable in court as Florida.

[Tekken_Guy]

There are a few procedural limitations that make this more like Florida than NC.

In NC there was NO clause in the state constitution addressing gerrymandering and the court left in place the county rules for the legislature.

New York does have a Constitutional prohibition against partisan gerrymandering in addition to a mandated commission and two-thirds requirements for overriding it.

Florida does as well, and the NY SC like the Florida one is making clear they will interpret those clauses in the most limited way possible that maintains deniability, but they cannot simply state, as the new NC majority did, that they have no say. Hence that segment about the Chinese community.

I don't think the Court of Appeals is asking for a compromise between Democrats and Republicans. But they are asking for a compromise between Democrats and the law, namely for the Democrats to provide something that the court sign off on for non-partisan reasons.

That 26-0 map would not stand even with this court for instance. And given the 2022 results, and non-events in Ohio, Democrats might settle for something closer to 20-3-3 rather than a "solid" 22-4.

The original Hochulmander was a tied delegation waiting to happen anyway.  Something like 20/6 could be stable for the decade and at least as justifiable in court as Florida.

If the 20 includes two Biden+14 districts in Nassau, then neither are safe, unless they go well into Queens to get to Biden+20 or greater.

[ProgressiveModerate]

There are a few procedural limitations that make this more like Florida than NC.

In NC there was NO clause in the state constitution addressing gerrymandering and the court left in place the county rules for the legislature.

New York does have a Constitutional prohibition against partisan gerrymandering in addition to a mandated commission and two-thirds requirements for overriding it.

Florida does as well, and the NY SC like the Florida one is making clear they will interpret those clauses in the most limited way possible that maintains deniability, but they cannot simply state, as the new NC majority did, that they have no say. Hence that segment about the Chinese community.

I don't think the Court of Appeals is asking for a compromise between Democrats and Republicans. But they are asking for a compromise between Democrats and the law, namely for the Democrats to provide something that the court sign off on for non-partisan reasons.

That 26-0 map would not stand even with this court for instance. And given the 2022 results, and non-events in Ohio, Democrats might settle for something closer to 20-3-3 rather than a "solid" 22-4.

The original Hochulmander was a tied delegation waiting to happen anyway.  Something like 20/6 could be stable for the decade and at least as justifiable in court as Florida.

If the 20 includes two Biden+14 districts in Nassau, then neither are safe, unless they go well into Queens to get to Biden+20 or greater.

One could argue something simillar about the Florida map. It's 20-8 in the sense that 20 seats clearly lean R, and 8 seats clearly lean D, but there are still a good handful of both R and D leaning seats that are semi-competatitve (FL-04, FL-07, FL-09, FL-13, FL-15, FL-23, FL-27) in the right circumstances.

In a normal year, Ds should be able to hold both Biden + 14 LI seats; 2022 was a perfect storm of State Dems being unpopular, Rs seriously investing in the state for once, Rs having a fairly strong slate of candidates, and Dems falling asleep at the wheel.

[Tekken_Guy]

Code:

There are a few procedural limitations that make this more like Florida than NC.

In NC there was NO clause in the state constitution addressing gerrymandering and the court left in place the county rules for the legislature.

New York does have a Constitutional prohibition against partisan gerrymandering in addition to a mandated commission and two-thirds requirements for overriding it.

Florida does as well, and the NY SC like the Florida one is making clear they will interpret those clauses in the most limited way possible that maintains deniability, but they cannot simply state, as the new NC majority did, that they have no say. Hence that segment about the Chinese community.

I don't think the Court of Appeals is asking for a compromise between Democrats and Republicans. But they are asking for a compromise between Democrats and the law, namely for the Democrats to provide something that the court sign off on for non-partisan reasons.

That 26-0 map would not stand even with this court for instance. And given the 2022 results, and non-events in Ohio, Democrats might settle for something closer to 20-3-3 rather than a "solid" 22-4.

The original Hochulmander was a tied delegation waiting to happen anyway.  Something like 20/6 could be stable for the decade and at least as justifiable in court as Florida.

If the 20 includes two Biden+14 districts in Nassau, then neither are safe, unless they go well into Queens to get to Biden+20 or greater.

One could argue something simillar about the Florida map. It's 20-8 in the sense that 20 seats clearly lean R, and 8 seats clearly lean D, but there are still a good handful of both R and D leaning seats that are semi-competatitve (FL-04, FL-07, FL-09, FL-13, FL-15, FL-23, FL-27) in the right circumstances.

In a normal year, Ds should be able to hold both Biden + 14 LI seats; 2022 was a perfect storm of State Dems being unpopular, Rs seriously investing in the state for once, Rs having a fairly strong slate of candidates, and Dems falling asleep at the wheel.

On the other hand it's very plausible they won't remain Biden+14 seats anymore after 2024 if Schumer's numbers become the baseline. Schumer probably barely won or even lost those seats in 2022.

Also do you think the impending redraw was partially a reason why R's got rid of Santos?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Code:

There are a few procedural limitations that make this more like Florida than NC.

In NC there was NO clause in the state constitution addressing gerrymandering and the court left in place the county rules for the legislature.

New York does have a Constitutional prohibition against partisan gerrymandering in addition to a mandated commission and two-thirds requirements for overriding it.

Florida does as well, and the NY SC like the Florida one is making clear they will interpret those clauses in the most limited way possible that maintains deniability, but they cannot simply state, as the new NC majority did, that they have no say. Hence that segment about the Chinese community.

I don't think the Court of Appeals is asking for a compromise between Democrats and Republicans. But they are asking for a compromise between Democrats and the law, namely for the Democrats to provide something that the court sign off on for non-partisan reasons.

That 26-0 map would not stand even with this court for instance. And given the 2022 results, and non-events in Ohio, Democrats might settle for something closer to 20-3-3 rather than a "solid" 22-4.

The original Hochulmander was a tied delegation waiting to happen anyway.  Something like 20/6 could be stable for the decade and at least as justifiable in court as Florida.

If the 20 includes two Biden+14 districts in Nassau, then neither are safe, unless they go well into Queens to get to Biden+20 or greater.

One could argue something simillar about the Florida map. It's 20-8 in the sense that 20 seats clearly lean R, and 8 seats clearly lean D, but there are still a good handful of both R and D leaning seats that are semi-competatitve (FL-04, FL-07, FL-09, FL-13, FL-15, FL-23, FL-27) in the right circumstances.

In a normal year, Ds should be able to hold both Biden + 14 LI seats; 2022 was a perfect storm of State Dems being unpopular, Rs seriously investing in the state for once, Rs having a fairly strong slate of candidates, and Dems falling asleep at the wheel.

On the other hand it's very plausible they won't remain Biden+14 seats anymore after 2024 if Schumer's numbers become the baseline. Schumer probably barely won or even lost those seats in 2022.

Also do you think the impending redraw was partially a reason why R's got rid of Santos?

Except I don't think Schumer's 2022 numbers are a very good baseline - turnout was clearly lopsided in favor of Rs in a way that is unlikely for 2024, plus local dynamics pretty heavily favored Rs. Same way that Whitmer numbers in MI aren't a good baseline for Biden in 2024.

I don't think Rs were really thinking much about the redraw when choosing to get rid of Santos but may of just thought of him as an electoral liability in the future - regardless of how NY-03 is redrawn, it'll be a seat where Rs have at least a remote possibility of winning, and Santos throws that remote possibility away.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I hope we do see Goldman want to drop the Progressive neighborhoods like one expects, cause then there might be an attempt to put forward a draft testing the waters for the Chinese access NY-11. The discourse around an effort like below will be interesting to watch, especially given how much attention has been directed to Brooklyn's Chinese in recent years.

For a Dem gerrymander, another advantage to Chinese access seat is it means the Staten Island seat would connect to only the high turnout wealthy D parts of Lower Manhattan, making NY-11 (NY-10 on your map) realistically unwinnable for Rs.

[Tekken_Guy]

Except I don't think Schumer's 2022 numbers are a very good baseline - turnout was clearly lopsided in favor of Rs in a way that is unlikely for 2024, plus local dynamics pretty heavily favored Rs. Same way that Whitmer numbers in MI aren't a good baseline for Biden in 2024.

I don't think Rs were really thinking much about the redraw when choosing to get rid of Santos but may of just thought of him as an electoral liability in the future - regardless of how NY-03 is redrawn, it'll be a seat where Rs have at least a remote possibility of winning, and Santos throws that remote possibility away.

The redrawn NY-03 is unlikely to be safe for Democrats as long as NY-04 isn't being made into an R sink at the same time.

[ꙮ]

Really hoping they don't stick Utica to the north country in the new map. Do not want to be in Stefanik's district.

[Oryxslayer]

Except I don't think Schumer's 2022 numbers are a very good baseline - turnout was clearly lopsided in favor of Rs in a way that is unlikely for 2024, plus local dynamics pretty heavily favored Rs. Same way that Whitmer numbers in MI aren't a good baseline for Biden in 2024.

I don't think Rs were really thinking much about the redraw when choosing to get rid of Santos but may of just thought of him as an electoral liability in the future - regardless of how NY-03 is redrawn, it'll be a seat where Rs have at least a remote possibility of winning, and Santos throws that remote possibility away.

The redrawn NY-03 is unlikely to be safe for Democrats as long as NY-04 isn't being made into an R sink at the same time.

Have you even looked at Nassau electoral geography? Pushing both districts a good deal to towards the Democrats is literally the easiest thing, cause you are more or less just restoring the allignment from last decade. The most reliable GOP voters are all fairly densely concentrated in the Southeast corner centered on Massapequa. It was previously in NY-02 but then the master divided it up between the two Nassau seats. And Dems are obviously throwing it right back in NY-02, which is gonna become a pack of varying strength depending upon what happens further to the east.

Like the map below has both Nassau seats over Biden+20 and nominally only plurality White. Obviously it comes at the expense of NY-01 only going from Biden+0 to Biden+6 and not like Biden+10 or more, but Nassau is not this GOP bastion that needs to be spiderwebbed.

[Atlas Force]

I wonder if the new NY-05 is going to take in this southwestern corner of Hempstead which is pretty red:

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I hope we do see Goldman want to drop the Progressive neighborhoods like one expects, cause then there might be an attempt to put forward a draft testing the waters for the Chinese access NY-11. The discourse around an effort like below will be interesting to watch, especially given how much attention has been directed to Brooklyn's Chinese in recent years.

This would be a very sensible way to do it.

One thing that you might think would be a problem with this design (from Goldman's perspective, anyway), would be that more of the population is in the Staten Island part than the Manhattan part, so theoretically you might think Goldman could be vulnerable to a geographically-based "anti-Manhattan" primary challenge.

However, that is not really the case with that configuration. Depending on exactly how you drew it, there would be about 108k Biden votes in the Manhattan part of the district, but there are only 91k Biden votes in Staten Island.

That means that in a geographically-based Democratic primary, a Manhattan candidate would be favored over a Staten Island one even if turnout were strictly proportional to Biden votes. However, a primary would obviously be lower turnout than a Presidential election, and would surely be even more lopsided in favor of Manhattan because a greater proportion of the Biden voters in Manhattan would be high propensity likely voters, whereas a larger share of the Biden voters in Staten Island would be lower propensity unlikely voters who are not going to vote in a primary.

So insofar as the greatest hypothetical electoral danger to Goldman is probably a primary challenge, this would likely make him safer rather than make him less safe. So it is something he would have every reason to get behind or at least to be OK with.

Plus, I would bet the Chinese/Asian access seat could be configured in such a way as to take some of the progressive white areas from the Brooklyn African American seats, so the Democratic incumbents in those seats would have reason to be happy with this as well.

So Dems should really do this or something very similar to it in the remap.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Except I don't think Schumer's 2022 numbers are a very good baseline - turnout was clearly lopsided in favor of Rs in a way that is unlikely for 2024, plus local dynamics pretty heavily favored Rs. Same way that Whitmer numbers in MI aren't a good baseline for Biden in 2024.

I don't think Rs were really thinking much about the redraw when choosing to get rid of Santos but may of just thought of him as an electoral liability in the future - regardless of how NY-03 is redrawn, it'll be a seat where Rs have at least a remote possibility of winning, and Santos throws that remote possibility away.

The redrawn NY-03 is unlikely to be safe for Democrats as long as NY-04 isn't being made into an R sink at the same time.

Have you even looked at Nassau electoral geography? Pushing both districts a good deal to towards the Democrats is literally the easiest thing, cause you are more or less just restoring the allignment from last decade. The most reliable GOP voters are all fairly densely concentrated in the Southeast corner centered on Massapequa. It was previously in NY-02 but then the master divided it up between the two Nassau seats. And Dems are obviously throwing it right back in NY-02, which is gonna become a pack of varying strength depending upon what happens further to the east.

Like the map below has both Nassau seats over Biden+20 and nominally only plurality White. Obviously it comes at the expense of NY-01 only going from Biden+0 to Biden+6 and not like Biden+10 or more, but Nassau is not this GOP bastion that needs to be spiderwebbed.

What overlay are you using and what’s it represent?

[Oryxslayer]

Except I don't think Schumer's 2022 numbers are a very good baseline - turnout was clearly lopsided in favor of Rs in a way that is unlikely for 2024, plus local dynamics pretty heavily favored Rs. Same way that Whitmer numbers in MI aren't a good baseline for Biden in 2024.

I don't think Rs were really thinking much about the redraw when choosing to get rid of Santos but may of just thought of him as an electoral liability in the future - regardless of how NY-03 is redrawn, it'll be a seat where Rs have at least a remote possibility of winning, and Santos throws that remote possibility away.

The redrawn NY-03 is unlikely to be safe for Democrats as long as NY-04 isn't being made into an R sink at the same time.

Have you even looked at Nassau electoral geography? Pushing both districts a good deal to towards the Democrats is literally the easiest thing, cause you are more or less just restoring the allignment from last decade. The most reliable GOP voters are all fairly densely concentrated in the Southeast corner centered on Massapequa. It was previously in NY-02 but then the master divided it up between the two Nassau seats. And Dems are obviously throwing it right back in NY-02, which is gonna become a pack of varying strength depending upon what happens further to the east.

Like the map below has both Nassau seats over Biden+20 and nominally only plurality White. Obviously it comes at the expense of NY-01 only going from Biden+0 to Biden+6 and not like Biden+10 or more, but Nassau is not this GOP bastion that needs to be spiderwebbed.

What overlay are you using and what’s it represent?

The overlay is not native to DRA, its NY towns/hamlets/CDPs. This can be found easily at the census tigerline "place" shapefile and imported accordingly.

Such boundaries are VERY important on Long Island (and the rest of the downstate suburbs) IMO, cause the city lines native to DRA are bulky, uninformative, and don't really show the diversity of suburban communities in the region. I've had it imported in DRA since like 2021 when for some reason it was changed from the towns to the present lines, leading to a mass of squares upstate and uninformative blobs downstate.