2020 New York Redistricting

[ProgressiveModerate]

Isn't there historical precedence for a Staten Island-Manhattan district? It seems like it might be easy to uphold if the other NYC districts are kept tidy.

I have to say I'm struck by how weak Schumer's performance was in Long Island. There has to be some serious temptation to cede two R districts in Long Island. I imagine a lot will depend on how the NY-03 special turns out.

Regardless, the Staten Island Ferry has 50k+ daily riders on a good weekday, which imo should be treated the same as any sort of highway or road link, so I think there's a pretty easy argument it's a contiguous district, the same way connecting to South Brooklyn is fine.

[politicallefty]

Isn't there historical precedence for a Staten Island-Manhattan district? It seems like it might be easy to uphold if the other NYC districts are kept tidy.

I have to say I'm struck by how weak Schumer's performance was in Long Island. There has to be some serious temptation to cede two R districts in Long Island. I imagine a lot will depend on how the NY-03 special turns out.

Regardless, the Staten Island Ferry has 50k+ daily riders on a good weekday, which imo should be treated the same as any sort of highway or road link, so I think there's a pretty easy argument it's a contiguous district, the same way connecting to South Brooklyn is fine.

Yeah, that was my point. It hasn't been done recently, but Staten Island-Manhattan was the traditional pairing for many decades, was it not? Personally, I would keep it tidy for the courts. In other words, Lower Manhattan with Staten Island. If you do that, there's no reason why Brooklyn can't be drawn nice and clean.

[ProgressiveModerate]

In depth analysis:

I calc'ed the major 2022 races for this map using the data painstakingly researched then generously provided by Ben. They are as follows:

Statewilde: 53.2% Hochul - 46.8% Zeldin (Hochul+6.4), 56.8% Schumer - 42.8% Pinion (Schumer+14)




NY-01: 46.1% Hochul - 53.8% Zeldin (Zeldin+7.7), 48.5% Schumer - 51.1% Pinion (Pinion+2.6)

NY-02: 33.3% Hochul - 66.7% Zeldin (Zeldin+33.4), 36% Schumer - 63.7% Pinion (Pinion+27.7)

NY-03: 48.5% Hochul - 51.4% Zeldin (Zeldin+2.9), 52% Schumer - 47.6% Pinion (Schumer+4.3)

NY-04: 50.1% Hochul - 49.8% Zeldin (Hochul+0.3), 53.4% Schumer - 46.3% Pinion (Schumer+7)

NY-05: 65.1% Hochul - 34.8% Zeldin (Hochul+30.3), 68.6% Schumer - 31% Pinion (Schumer+37.6)

NY-06: 58% Hochul - 41.8% Zeldin (Hochul+16.1), 63.3% Schumer - 36% Pinion (Schumer+27.3)

NY-07: 74% Hochul - 25.8% Zeldin (Hochul+48.2), 79.6% Schumer - 19.6% Pinion (Schumer+60)

NY-08: 72% Hochul - 27.9% Zeldin (Hochul+44.1), 75.4% Schumer - 24.1% Pinion (Schumer+51.3)

NY-09: 67% Hochul - 32.8% Zeldin (Hochul+34.2), 71.3% Schumer - 28% Pinion (Schumer+49.7)

NY-10: 52.1% Hochul - 47.7% Zeldin (Hochul+4.4), 55.2% Schumer - 44.3% Pinion (Schumer+10.9)

NY-11: 67.4% Hochul - 32.4% Zeldin (Hochul+35), 71.3% Schumer - 28% Pinion (Schumer+43.3)

NY-12: 80.3% Hochul - 19.5% Zeldin (Hochul+60.8 ), 83.3% Schumer - 16.2% Pinion (Schumer+67.2)

NY-13: 86.4% Hochul - 13.4% Zeldin (Hochul+73), 88.8% Schumer - 10.6% Pinion (Schumer+78.2)

NY-14: 77.8% Hochul - 22% Zeldin (Hochul+55.8 ), 80.8% Schumer - 18.5% Pinion (Schumer+62.2)

NY-15: 73.2% Hochul - 26.7% Zeldin (Hochul+46.4), 76.4% Schumer - 23% Pinion (Schumer+53.4)

NY-16: 54.5% Hochul - 45.3% Zeldin (Hochul+9.2), 60.1% Schumer - 39.5% Pinion (Schumer+20.5)

NY-17: 56.4% Hochul - 43.5% Zeldin (Hochul+12.9), 58.9% Schumer - 40.8% Pinion (Schumer+18.1)

NY-18: 49.7% Hochul - 50.2% Zeldin (Zeldin+0.5), 52.2% Schumer - 47.2% Pinion (Schumer+5)

NY-19: 47.7% Hochul - 52.1% Zeldin (Zeldin+4.4), 50.9% Schumer - 48.5% Pinion (Schumer+2.4)

NY-20: 51.9% Hochul - 47.9% Zeldin (Hochul+4), 55.2% Schumer - 44.2% Pinion (Schumer+11)

NY-21: 33% Hochul - 66.8% Zeldin (Zeldin+33.8 ), 38.5% Schumer - 60.9% Pinion (Pinion+22.4)

NY-22: 49.2% Hochul - 50.6% Zeldin (Zeldin+1.4), 54.2% Schumer - 45.2% Pinion (Schumer+9)

NY-23: 34.8% Hochul - 65% Zeldin (Zeldin+30.3), 38.1% Schumer - 61.4% Pinion (Pinion+23.3)

NY-24: 30.8% Hochul - 69.1% Zeldin (Zeldin+38.3), 35.4% Schumer - 64.1% Pinion (Pinion+28.7)

NY-25: 54.3% Hochul - 45.5% Zeldin (Hochul+8.8 ), 57.2% Schumer - 42.2% Pinion (Schumer+15.1)

NY-26: 58.6% Hochul - 41.2% Zeldin (Hochul+17.3), 61.4% Schumer - 38% Pinion (Schumer+23.4)

So there's a few takeaway's from this analysis:

1) It isn't here, but examining the data reveals just how bad minority turnout was, compared to it's usual baselines, when matched against White precincts of any sort. NY-16 and NY-17 kinda show that above, since they are both drawn with comparable 2020 results. But the poor turnout among the nonwhite half of the electorate in NY-16 means it has a worse Gov Dem result than NY-17, something that flips in the Senate race. And that's of course cause poor minority turnout gives the Hasidic enclaves an oversized weight to their swingy behavior.

2) The Gov race is so close that it's basically impossible to get Hochul to win the marginal seats that are presently GOP-held, at least without tentacles that I tried to avoid in this map. However, even a decent Dem-leaning plan should see them all snap into line with a result not much better than hers. Schumer's is still an underperformance from historical averages and he wins everything except NY-01 where Zeldin gave every Republican a home-region boost. So for the guy who was a few weeks ago saying Dems should concede seats so they could win districts under an expected Schumer-style result, that seems to not be needed.

3) Staten-Manhattan in NY-10 just keeps looking better. I estimated earlier the result was around 5% for Hochul, and that seems to be the case. Reminder, the 2020 result here is only Biden+18, less than in NY-04 and somewhat comparable to NY-03 and NY-20. But it hold's up better than all of them under the Hochul stress test. Manhattan Liberal Whites remain some of the most inflexible voters in the state - perhaps the nation - both in terms of turnout and partisanship.

Nice job calculating these - at first I thought these were the results under the current lines and was really confused lol.

I think one underrated good feature of your map is that Hochul still won NY-06 by 16%, meaning it should probably be fine in the long run if even if Asians drift right. On the current map, I believe NY-06 was only a single-digit Hochul win. Well thing probably has basically any config of NY-06 locked down, if she had a scandal or retired and NY-Rs ran someone locally popular with the Asian and Jewish communities, def a seat that could be in danger for Dems.

Long Island is tricky because it's hard to tell where it's going in the long run; to what extent was 2022 just a factor of poor Dem turnout, local GOP advantage, and local politics vs indicative of a larger national trend? I would still advise against Dems ceding 2 R sinks because it's still pretty tricky to do, though I understand making NY-01 a bit of an iffier D seat in exchange for shoring up NY-03 and NY-04. Have the R sink take in as many Italian and Jewish areas as possible, since these seem to be the main parts of Long Island that are R-leaning and shifting further right.

I agree connecting Staten Island to Lower Manhattan is clearly the superior option for a Dem gerrymander (incumbent demands aside). As you state, liberal Manhattan whites are both extremely D and extremely high turnout, but I would also add are very wealthy - any D in the seat would likely be fine when it comes to fundraising and be able to hold down the seat long term. While Park Slope/Gowanus has some liberal whites, they aren't as consistently high turnout and are also just not as wealthy.

[patzer]

Isn't there historical precedence for a Staten Island-Manhattan district? It seems like it might be easy to uphold if the other NYC districts are kept tidy.

I have to say I'm struck by how weak Schumer's performance was in Long Island. There has to be some serious temptation to cede two R districts in Long Island. I imagine a lot will depend on how the NY-03 special turns out.

Well, for Long Island you can always cede one Safe R sink and another Lean R seat. In this map...

1st is Trump+1
2nd is Trump+14
3rd is Biden+31 (and very nearly Hispanic plurality)
4th is Biden+38 (black plurality)
6th is Biden+31 (46% Asian)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Isn't there historical precedence for a Staten Island-Manhattan district? It seems like it might be easy to uphold if the other NYC districts are kept tidy.

I have to say I'm struck by how weak Schumer's performance was in Long Island. There has to be some serious temptation to cede two R districts in Long Island. I imagine a lot will depend on how the NY-03 special turns out.

Well, for Long Island you can always cede one Safe R sink and another Lean R seat. In this map...

1st is Trump+1
2nd is Trump+14
3rd is Biden+31 (and very nearly Hispanic plurality)
4th is Biden+38 (black plurality)
6th is Biden+31 (46% Asian)

No reason to do so

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Isn't there historical precedence for a Staten Island-Manhattan district? It seems like it might be easy to uphold if the other NYC districts are kept tidy.

I'm pretty sure no but it can be easily put into a pretty Safe D seat by just linking it to Park Slope.

[Brittain33]

Isn't there historical precedence for a Staten Island-Manhattan district? It seems like it might be easy to uphold if the other NYC districts are kept tidy.

I'm pretty sure no but it can be easily put into a pretty Safe D seat by just linking it to Park Slope.

I found a tweet that said Manhattan was connected with Staten Island for some time:

“ Fun fact - Staten Island and Lower Manhattan formed one congressional district for a *majority* of the last 130 years (1893-1953, 1973-1983)”

Makes sense as there was no bridge to Brooklyn until the 1960s.

[Oryxslayer]

Isn't there historical precedence for a Staten Island-Manhattan district? It seems like it might be easy to uphold if the other NYC districts are kept tidy.

I'm pretty sure no but it can be easily put into a pretty Safe D seat by just linking it to Park Slope.

I found a tweet that said Manhattan was connected with Staten Island for some time:

“ Fun fact - Staten Island and Lower Manhattan formed one congressional district for a *majority* of the last 130 years (1893-1953, 1973-1983)”

Makes sense as there was no bridge to Brooklyn until the 1960s.

This is correct, you can get the shapefiles at the following link to back this up. For some reason legacy district maps in pure image form are hard to come by when you go back past the 90s.

Looking at the historical maps since OMOV in the 60s, we have the following plans.

The Map used for the 92nd congress in 1970 which is Staten-Brooklyn and only a single Manhattan pairing in NY-21 which had a bit of east Harlem and Randall's Island with Northern Queens and southern Bronx.  

Between the 1972 and 1980 elections one map was used. This as previously mentioned had Staten - Manhattan linked. There was also an additional Manhattan pairing in the north of the Island. NY-20 took in most of the west side of the island and also grabbed Riverdale from the Bronx.

The map used for the elections between 1982 and 1990 is when in my opinion modern gerrymandering techniques made themselves known in New York. Staten-Brooklyn linkage. The Manhattan-Riverdale pairing from last decade continues only now the district is very obtuse. It goes from the tip of the island to to top of the Bronx, taking in only a precinct or less north of the UWS in the linkage, and takes in a large chunk of the northern Bronx in addition to Riverdale once it gets there.

The 90s saw computerized redistricting in NY, but unlike many states where the mappers were smacked down for abusing this unchecked power, the jagged lines in NYC lasted. Staten South Brooklyn pairing. More importantly for Manhattan though, every district on the island takes stuff from her neighbors. This is where that precedent got set. NY-08 is the first iteration of the Jewish pack, going from UWS to Borough Park and south Brooklyn in a very similar form to what would persist until 2020. NY-12 is the Velazquez seat that similarly resembles the 2010s version of her seat, with a bit of Chinatown. NY-14 pairs the East Side with White adjacent parts of Queens, albeit not very compactly. The northern NY-15 is beginning to creep into other minority sections, just not so clearly as it would later be.

From 2002 onwards, the alignment of the districts is roughly the same until the special master remapped the map, and in a manner we should all be aware of. One of the bigger departures from tradition up until that point, and not in an anti-Gerrymandering fashion, was the UWS -UES merger. This meant Manhattan has a nested seat once more, and puts a greater burden on the districts at other ends of the island.  

[Oryxslayer]

Isn't there historical precedence for a Staten Island-Manhattan district? It seems like it might be easy to uphold if the other NYC districts are kept tidy.

I'm pretty sure no but it can be easily put into a pretty Safe D seat by just linking it to Park Slope.

Anyway, to more directly address this point, we have discussed it at length in this thread if you go back a good deal of pages until the summer or earlier.

To TL:DR it all, the NYC reps are now North-South rather than East-West. Goldman's biggest worry after 2022 will be the primary which he has only a weak hold over. To reinforce him, one suspects he would like a seat that is less Chinese, more Manhattan dominated, and lacks many Progressive voters. NY-10 cannot go that much further north, cause of the wall of minority access districts that quickly block NY-12. Even if one resurrects the decades-old Riverdale tentacle, there isn't much to give.

The obvious way to accomplish Goldman's problems therefore is to go to South Brooklyn. However, the former pairing with Republican Hasidim and other Whites is now politically impossible, since the AA seats are not going to let go of their prize in exchange for Progressive turf. That leaves the Chinese part of south Brooklyn, a imperfect solution that would have to be connected by a tentacle that one assumes the Dems would like to avoid to prevent complaints and counter-suits.

There however remains a alternative which is Staten Manhattan. It solves all the primary problems. And as I hopefully just showed, it's not as uncertain a GE situation as it appears on paper thanks to Manhattan Whites, especially since those same voters have the money to keep a Dem candidate in control of the narrative. Meanwhile the old Staten seat becomes a Brooklyn one, grabbing all the Chinese voters between Manhattan's Chinatown and Gravesend, obviously packing as many Progressive voters alongside them as feasible. That is the beauty of the linkage at this point in time. One is effectively making new precedent by cutting the number of majority White seats from three to two, and setting up an Asian access district that will seemingly only become more Asian with time. Which means Staten has to be paired with Manhattan not just now but for the foreseeable future, since it's too White for anywhere else. (Also progressives aren't as reliable when it comes to turnout as Manhattan voters, so a district like say the original 2022 NY-11 that went to Park Slope still votes for Zeldin)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Honestly really proud of this in hindsight:

Notably I've seen an increase in both pro-Hochul and anti-Zeldin ads on youtube lately. Seems like she sort of fell asleep at the wheel and only now are Dems taking this race seriously. Most of the ads are pretty generic, and discuss abortion or try and tie Zeldin to Trump/extreme Rs. Given that NY as a whole is pretty blue, that's not necessarily a bad strategy.

I do think Hochul will lose most of the swing congressional seats so we'll see how that bodes for down ballot Ds. I could def see Zeldin winning 11 or even 12 of NY's 26 congressional districts, but the NYC districts still vote lopsided in Hochul's favor.

On the governor level these would be my guesses:

Safe Zeldin: NY-01, NY-02, NY-011, NY-21, NY-23, NY-24
Likely Zeldin: NY-03
Lean Zeldin: NY-17, NY-18, NY-19, NY-22
Tossup: NY-04
Lean Hochul: NY-20, NY-25
Likely Hochul: NY-06, NY-26
Safe Hochul: All the NYC districts.

I suspect basically all downballot House Ds will outperform Hochul to some degree but she doesn't help their case.

[Atlas Force]

This is gonna be the last post I make before I get a new phone: https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1737523998458585403

[Epaminondas]

Is the commission pledging not to change the old court map?

[Roll Roons]

Is the commission pledging not to change the old court map?

Objectively, the existing map is pretty good. I can see why they’d want to keep it similar to what it is rather than letting the legislature draw a disgusting gerrymander.

[Tekken_Guy]

Is the commission pledging not to change the old court map?

Objectively, the existing map is pretty good. I can see why they’d want to keep it similar to what it is rather than letting the legislature draw a disgusting gerrymander.

The Republicans may want it but the Dems on the commission may try to punt it to the legislature like Ohio's Republicans did.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Is the commission pledging not to change the old court map?

Objectively, the existing map is pretty good. I can see why they’d want to keep it similar to what it is rather than letting the legislature draw a disgusting gerrymander.

The Republicans may want it but the Dems on the commission may try to punt it to the legislature like Ohio's Republicans did.

One can only hope; the existing map is a piece of crap!

[Spectator]

Isn't there historical precedence for a Staten Island-Manhattan district? It seems like it might be easy to uphold if the other NYC districts are kept tidy.

I have to say I'm struck by how weak Schumer's performance was in Long Island. There has to be some serious temptation to cede two R districts in Long Island. I imagine a lot will depend on how the NY-03 special turns out.

Well, for Long Island you can always cede one Safe R sink and another Lean R seat. In this map...

1st is Trump+1
2nd is Trump+14
3rd is Biden+31 (and very nearly Hispanic plurality)
4th is Biden+38 (black plurality)
6th is Biden+31 (46% Asian)

Dems shouldn’t be struggling to win Biden+15 seats on Long Island in most years, so drawing a D+35 seat by ceding two Trump seats is ridiculous. If Dems are having bad nights where we they are losing seats like Biden +15, they aren’t winning the House anyway. 2022 notwithstanding, of course 🙃

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is the commission pledging not to change the old court map?

Objectively, the existing map is pretty good. I can see why they’d want to keep it similar to what it is rather than letting the legislature draw a disgusting gerrymander.

Also one could see it as a win-win for both sides.

In all honesty, the Court drawn map was still decently good for Dems, with things like NY-19 stretching to take in Ithaca, NY-24 sort of working as a lite R-pack, and no swingy/R-leaning south Brooklyn seat. Very few expected a court drawn map to only have 5 Trump seats (most expected ~7). On 2020 Pres numbers, 20 of the 26 seats were to the left of the nation. Dems just really dropped the ball in a lot of these races in 2022, and tbh they still came close to winning seats like NY-17, NY-19, and NY-22.

The map is good for Republicans in the sense it gives them reasonable chances at a bunch of seats they wouldn't have a shot at in a D gerrymander.

[Roll Roons]

Is the commission pledging not to change the old court map?

Objectively, the existing map is pretty good. I can see why they’d want to keep it similar to what it is rather than letting the legislature draw a disgusting gerrymander.

The Republicans may want it but the Dems on the commission may try to punt it to the legislature like Ohio's Republicans did.

One can only hope; the existing map is a piece of crap!

Why do you think the current map is bad? If you have actual reasoning, I’m more than willing to hear it out.

[patzer]

Why do you think the current map is bad? If you have actual reasoning, I’m more than willing to hear it out.

The 19th and 24th districts have very ugly and easily avoidable shapes, why not this

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Is the commission pledging not to change the old court map?

Objectively, the existing map is pretty good. I can see why they’d want to keep it similar to what it is rather than letting the legislature draw a disgusting gerrymander.

The Republicans may want it but the Dems on the commission may try to punt it to the legislature like Ohio's Republicans did.

One can only hope; the existing map is a piece of crap!

Why do you think the current map is bad? If you have actual reasoning, I’m more than willing to hear it out.

Until there is a national ban on gerrymandering (which I strongly support) any New York congressional map that isn’t a strong Democratic gerrymander is awful.  Anyway, beyond that, I genuinely believe the 2022 NY redistricting case was wrongly decided (thankfully, that decision has been effectively reversed).  So I take issue with it being imposed at all even beyond partisan considerations.    I’d also argue that it is a soft-Republican gerrymander rather than a fair map which is pretty ridiculous to have for New York.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Is the commission pledging not to change the old court map?

Objectively, the existing map is pretty good. I can see why they’d want to keep it similar to what it is rather than letting the legislature draw a disgusting gerrymander.

The Republicans may want it but the Dems on the commission may try to punt it to the legislature like Ohio's Republicans did.

One can only hope; the existing map is a piece of crap!

Why do you think the current map is bad? If you have actual reasoning, I’m more than willing to hear it out.

Until there is a national ban on gerrymandering (which I strongly support) any New York congressional map that isn’t a strong Democratic gerrymander is awful.  Anyway, beyond that, I genuinely believe the 2022 NY redistricting case was wrongly decided (thankfully, that decision has been effectively reversed).  So I take issue with it being imposed at all even beyond partisan considerations.    I’d also argue that it is a soft-Republican gerrymander rather than a fair map which is pretty ridiculous to have for New York.

The New York State Counstition has proviosons banning gerrymandering; if it's outrageous for the republican to subvert those provions in Ohio and Utath why is it ok for democrats to do in New York ?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Is the commission pledging not to change the old court map?

Objectively, the existing map is pretty good. I can see why they’d want to keep it similar to what it is rather than letting the legislature draw a disgusting gerrymander.

The Republicans may want it but the Dems on the commission may try to punt it to the legislature like Ohio's Republicans did.

One can only hope; the existing map is a piece of crap!

Why do you think the current map is bad? If you have actual reasoning, I’m more than willing to hear it out.

Until there is a national ban on gerrymandering (which I strongly support) any New York congressional map that isn’t a strong Democratic gerrymander is awful.  Anyway, beyond that, I genuinely believe the 2022 NY redistricting case was wrongly decided (thankfully, that decision has been effectively reversed).  So I take issue with it being imposed at all even beyond partisan considerations.    I’d also argue that it is a soft-Republican gerrymander rather than a fair map which is pretty ridiculous to have for New York.

The New York State Counstition has proviosons banning gerrymandering; if it's outrageous for the republican to subvert those provions in Ohio and Utath why is it ok for democrats to do in New York ?

Because I oppose unilateral disarmament; national ban or bust.

[Dan the Roman]

Is the commission pledging not to change the old court map?

Objectively, the existing map is pretty good. I can see why they’d want to keep it similar to what it is rather than letting the legislature draw a disgusting gerrymander.

The Republicans may want it but the Dems on the commission may try to punt it to the legislature like Ohio's Republicans did.

One can only hope; the existing map is a piece of crap!

Why do you think the current map is bad? If you have actual reasoning, I’m more than willing to hear it out.

Until there is a national ban on gerrymandering (which I strongly support) any New York congressional map that isn’t a strong Democratic gerrymander is awful.  Anyway, beyond that, I genuinely believe the 2022 NY redistricting case was wrongly decided (thankfully, that decision has been effectively reversed).  So I take issue with it being imposed at all even beyond partisan considerations.    I’d also argue that it is a soft-Republican gerrymander rather than a fair map which is pretty ridiculous to have for New York.

The New York State Counstition has proviosons banning gerrymandering; if it's outrageous for the republican to subvert those provions in Ohio and Utath why is it ok for democrats to do in New York ?

Utah I will grant you,  but the Ohio map turned out alright for Democrats and has now been locked in. They would have 3 seats in a full gerrymander perhaps 2 if OH Rs went full Illinois D or NC R.

Realistically the fight came down to whether restrictions on partisan gerrymandering placed an affirmative obligation for proportionality or partisan fairness. I think that's ambigious and it's worth noting the current NY map was not drawn to do so. The proportionality was almost accidental. It has 20 seats more D than the nation and in 2020 probably would have gone something like 19-7 and 21-5 in 2018.

[Gass3268]

Is the commission pledging not to change the old court map?

Objectively, the existing map is pretty good. I can see why they’d want to keep it similar to what it is rather than letting the legislature draw a disgusting gerrymander.

The Republicans may want it but the Dems on the commission may try to punt it to the legislature like Ohio's Republicans did.

One can only hope; the existing map is a piece of crap!

Why do you think the current map is bad? If you have actual reasoning, I’m more than willing to hear it out.

Until there is a national ban on gerrymandering (which I strongly support) any New York congressional map that isn’t a strong Democratic gerrymander is awful.  Anyway, beyond that, I genuinely believe the 2022 NY redistricting case was wrongly decided (thankfully, that decision has been effectively reversed).  So I take issue with it being imposed at all even beyond partisan considerations.    I’d also argue that it is a soft-Republican gerrymander rather than a fair map which is pretty ridiculous to have for New York.

The New York State Counstition has proviosons banning gerrymandering; if it's outrageous for the republican to subvert those provions in Ohio and Utath why is it ok for democrats to do in New York ?

Why do Democrats always have to be held to a higher standard than Republicans?

[Tekken_Guy]

Is the commission pledging not to change the old court map?

Objectively, the existing map is pretty good. I can see why they’d want to keep it similar to what it is rather than letting the legislature draw a disgusting gerrymander.

The Republicans may want it but the Dems on the commission may try to punt it to the legislature like Ohio's Republicans did.

One can only hope; the existing map is a piece of crap!

Why do you think the current map is bad? If you have actual reasoning, I’m more than willing to hear it out.

Until there is a national ban on gerrymandering (which I strongly support) any New York congressional map that isn’t a strong Democratic gerrymander is awful.  Anyway, beyond that, I genuinely believe the 2022 NY redistricting case was wrongly decided (thankfully, that decision has been effectively reversed).  So I take issue with it being imposed at all even beyond partisan considerations.    I’d also argue that it is a soft-Republican gerrymander rather than a fair map which is pretty ridiculous to have for New York.

The New York State Counstition has proviosons banning gerrymandering; if it's outrageous for the republican to subvert those provions in Ohio and Utath why is it ok for democrats to do in New York ?

Utah I will grant you,  but the Ohio map turned out alright for Democrats and has now been locked in. They would have 3 seats in a full gerrymander perhaps 2 if OH Rs went full Illinois D or NC R.

Realistically the fight came down to whether restrictions on partisan gerrymandering placed an affirmative obligation for proportionality or partisan fairness. I think that's ambigious and it's worth noting the current NY map was not drawn to do so. The proportionality was almost accidental. It has 20 seats more D than the nation and in 2020 probably would have gone something like 19-7 and 21-5 in 2018.

The Ohio map could be better. OH-07 and OH-15 should be swing seats if not outright Democratic-leaning on a fair map. Also OH-09 and OH-13 would be stronger for D’s.

If the New York map was in place the previous decade then yeah that makes sense. NY-01 may have stayed blue in 2014 as both Bishop and Israel are from that district but Zeldin isn’t. Without Israel in NY-03 Suozzi could have jumped into congress immediately. NY-22’s trajectory in the 2010s would be interesting as Buerkle, Maffei, Katko, Hanna, Tenney, and Brindisi would all be from that seat.