Canadian Election 2019

[lilTommy]

The NDP have of course lost the most personal vote. They could have a frontbench of Singh, plus only Peter Julian, Alexandre Boulerice, Don Davies, Niki Ashton, Jenny Kwan and Brian Masse, which is being generous to them in my definition of top players. This is with Nathan Cullen, Murray Rankin, Linda Duncan, Romeo Saganash, Irene Mathyssen and David Christopherson all retiring, as well as Ruth Ellen Brosseau, Matthew Dube and Daniel Blaikie losing. They have a few good quieter MPs, such as Wayne Stetski (also very vulnerable), Sheri Benson, Richard Cannings, Gord Johns and Scott Duvall, but they are looking to have one of their worst caucuses at this rate. On the plus side, Andrew Cash, Paul Taylor and Yafet Tewelde, could be good candidates if they win, which is likely in the first two cases, plus there are possible returns from Svend Robinson and Jack Harris. If Harris runs, he'd likely win against an awful MP in Nick Whalen.

You forgot Charlie Angus.

You are assuming REB, Dube and Blaikie will lose; REB and Dube won in 2015, I likely see them both winning again, REB I am more confident with. Blaikie I see winning again, recent polling has the NDP up in Winnipeg and his profile is much stronger now over 2015 when he was new.

You left out Tracey Ramsey who was (along with Blaikie) one of two pick-up's in 2015 for the NDP (who was high profile during the SNC hearings), Jenny Kwan longtime BC MLA and former Cabinet Minister, Pierre-Luc Dusseault another 2015 survivor and the youngest ever MP and now a finance critic, Guy Caron a leadership candidate and a highly regarded economist in his own right.

Your forgetting for candidates Matthew Green a Hamilton City Councillor to replace Christopherson, Lauren Collins another City Councillor replacing Murray; Bonita Zarrillo, city Councillor replacing Donnelly in Port Moody—Coquitlam... all strong local candidates
in Parkdale-High Park you have Saron Gebresellassi former mayoral candidate going against Paul Taylor (two high profile candidates who are in strong positions to win);
filmaker/lecturer Min Sook Lee in TO-Danforth, another prime target
Christine Saulnier with the CDN Centre for Policy Alternatives n Halifax
Leah Gazan, lecturer and leader of Idle No More Indigenous movement in WinCen. and Bob Chamberlin a BC grand chief running in Nanaimo-Ladysmith by-election.
To replace Cullen, there a strong cast so far; Annita McPhee the President of the Tahltan Central Government, Taylor Bachrach Mayor of Smithers and Smithers Town Councillor Greg Brown.

I could go on, but I think discrediting the NDP is a mistake as there are strong candidates in place along with strong MPs... who might not be on the MSM.

[lilTommy]

The NDP have of course lost the most personal vote. They could have a frontbench of Singh, plus only Peter Julian, Alexandre Boulerice, Don Davies, Niki Ashton, Jenny Kwan and Brian Masse, which is being generous to them in my definition of top players. This is with Nathan Cullen, Murray Rankin, Linda Duncan, Romeo Saganash, Irene Mathyssen and David Christopherson all retiring, as well as Ruth Ellen Brosseau, Matthew Dube and Daniel Blaikie losing. They have a few good quieter MPs, such as Wayne Stetski (also very vulnerable), Sheri Benson, Richard Cannings, Gord Johns and Scott Duvall, but they are looking to have one of their worst caucuses at this rate. On the plus side, Andrew Cash, Paul Taylor and Yafet Tewelde, could be good candidates if they win, which is likely in the first two cases, plus there are possible returns from Svend Robinson and Jack Harris. If Harris runs, he'd likely win against an awful MP in Nick Whalen.

You forgot Charlie Angus.

You are assuming REB, Dube and Blaikie will lose; REB and Dube won in 2015, I likely see them both winning again, REB I am more confident with. Blaikie I see winning again, recent polling has the NDP up in Winnipeg and his profile is much stronger now over 2015 when he was new.

You left out Tracey Ramsey who was (along with Blaikie) one of two pick-up's in 2015 for the NDP (who was high profile during the SNC hearings), Jenny Kwan longtime BC MLA and former Cabinet Minister, Pierre-Luc Dusseault another 2015 survivor and the youngest ever MP and now a finance critic, Guy Caron a leadership candidate and a highly regarded economist in his own right.

Your forgetting for candidates Matthew Green a Hamilton City Councillor to replace Christopherson, Lauren Collins another City Councillor replacing Murray; Bonita Zarrillo, city Councillor replacing Donnelly in Port Moody—Coquitlam... all strong local candidates
in Parkdale-High Park you have Saron Gebresellassi former mayoral candidate going against Paul Taylor (two high profile candidates who are in strong positions to win);
filmaker/lecturer Min Sook Lee in TO-Danforth, another prime target
Christine Saulnier with the CDN Centre for Policy Alternatives n Halifax
Leah Gazan, lecturer and leader of Idle No More Indigenous movement in WinCen. and Bob Chamberlin a BC grand chief running in Nanaimo-Ladysmith by-election.
To replace Cullen, there a strong cast so far; Annita McPhee the President of the Tahltan Central Government, Taylor Bachrach Mayor of Smithers and Smithers Town Councillor Greg Brown.

I could go on, but I think discrediting the NDP is a mistake as there are strong candidates in place along with strong MPs... who might not be on the MSM.

I don't think REB or Dube will win, I appreciate your optimism, but I just don't see it. Some polls have the NDP at 7% in Quebec. REB, Caron and Boulerice are the only candidates I can see getting re-elected (maybe Dusseault or Aubin stuns us all.) Ramsey and Blaikie are also quite vulnerable in my view, and to say that Ramsey is a good candidate isn't wrong, but so is Chris Lewis. The CPC are also doing very well in the Prairies; people did not expect Toet to defeat Maloway in 2011 and he only lost very narrowly last time. Granted, some of those Indigenous Candidates will be strong. And how could I forget Charlie Angus? I had wanted him to win the election. In a way, they all seem good against the hyper-partisan Liberal representatives in my opinion.

My point is that may still not be enough for the NDP. With their numbers, they are unlikely to lose . And where there are candidates like Matthew Green, inevitably they may have a hard time filling the footsteps of someone like David Christopherson. Seats like Fin Donnelly's were notionally Conservative in 2011, and so they are at risk. The seats gained on Vancouver Island are probably not going Conservative again (other than the two Northern ones if we're in CPC majority or near-majority territory), but in the Southern half they are undoubtedly at risk.

I'm a CPC/NB PCs supporter so I feel we have equally good candidates, but the effec . Just like for you, someone like Daniel Lee should definitely win in Willowdale, but if the Liberals do well Ali Ehsassi would win. Same goes for Marty Morantz in Charleswood-St James, Rick Perkins in South Shore-St Margaret's, Irshad Chaudhry in Scarborough Centre, and Milad Mikael in Mississauga Centre. Some CPC MPs like Robert Gordon Kitchen in Souris-Moose Mountain, Rachael Harder in Lethbridge, Bob Saroya in Markham-Unionville and Cathy Wagantall in Yorkton-Melville get little coverage for themselves outside of their ridings despite being talented and experienced.
They could and in some cases should be in the executive in my view, but if they don't win then that's due to national trends. Voters won't recognise these new NDP candidates as well as their predecessors, or they may abandon their personal vote if they no longer find the NDP palatable (that applies particularly in Quebec, and I don't think that's solely due to this popular notion that Jagmeet Singh and his turban are out of step with Quebec, but simply because the NDP is no longer the progressive voice for Quebec in government or the main opposition party Quebecers can coalesce behind.)

I think we need to be clear with Quebec, right now we can't predict it. The NDP have polled as high as around 20% and as low as, as you mentioned 7%. My feeling is for REB, she can likely survive due in part to her solidified position. I can realistically see the NDP hold 10-12 of their MPs if the NDP polls on the high side of 18% or so.

For Ramsey; the Windosr-Essex region while the CPC will increase the voter, should remain NDP as much of that will be LPC; while Lewis is a good candidate and performed well in the provincials, the three ridings all remained NDP on a massive swing towards the PCs province wide. Now we are post Ford, who has not done the Conservative image any favour. Ramsey has incumbency as well as a very good term under her belt. CPC will win more seats in ON, I feel the trend will look like ON18, gains in the GTA area, and Eastern/NE Ontario where the seats are LPC (Bay of Quinte, Northumberland, Nipissing)
Agreed, the CPC is polling very high out west, I can see the CPC winning 4 in Winnipeg and 4 in Alberta all held by the LPC)
My point with the new candidates replacing highly regarded MPs, the local ridings have done a good job of finding locally well known candidates with government experience (municipal) these are all (with the exception of Port Moody-Coquitlam) strong NDP seats. The Van suburbs are true three way races, and the CPC and NDP have all been up in BC.
All those CPC candidates, I agree I can see them winning.
For the NDP, I think we are seeing, slowly some of the NDP->LPC voters from 2015 migrating back. Jagmeet is performing well in the House, and policy wise have made strong announcements (that importantly is pleasing the base, in contract to Mulcair) The sunny ways LPC is gone and the boogeyman and fear mongering LPC is back (and some of that is justified since Scheer is frightfully regressive socially and scares people like me) I'm NDP/Dem.Socialist if you could not tell

[lilTommy]

Nanos Weekly
https://bit.ly/2WgW9Rc

CPC - 34.91%
LPC - 32.02%
NDP -16.46%
GRN - 9.03%

->BC
CPC - 27.32%
LPC - 26%
NDP - 24.88%
GRN - 21.80%
- Both the NDP and Greens have gained 10 point since the beginning of April (10ish and 8ish point gains)

->QC
LPC - 33.19%
NDP - 15.40%
CPC - 15.42%
BQ - 17.48%

[lilTommy]

I am hearing a third candidate plans to enter the Parkdale-High Park NDP nomination race:  pundit Tom Parkin.

Wow... but really, this is a stacked field already. Why not run somewhere else and try and get MORE strong NDP candidates nominated.
I know University-Rosedale is going to be hard against Freeland, but probably the most demographically "fitting" riding for Paikin
Spadina-Fort York, same against Vaughan (although not in cabinet and not the most likable guy, so of the three probably the weakest LPC MPs) but probably the most progressive-swingy riding.
Toronto Centre, almost no one will defeat Morneau... probably Councillor Wong-Tam
Toronto-St.Paul's, even more of a long shot, didn't even think the ONDP would win this one.

anyway, this is good for the NDP (if it's true)
 

[lilTommy]

Tommy, are you confusing Tom Parkin with Steve Paikin of TVO?

... no, but I think I did just mix-up their names

[lilTommy]

Because 1) Parkin lives in High Park and 2) wants the easiest ride to Parliament.  This is the most coveted nomination in the city.

I wouldn't say he's a bigger name than Saron Gebresellassi.  I'm guessing far fewer Torontonians have heard of him.  But he's a big deal to a several hundred existing members in PHP, presumably.

As far as I know he is the only contender for the nomination who lives in Parkdale-High Park (and has lived there for the last 30 years). He has also been president of the riding association there. Until recently he had a regular column in the Toronto Sun and now writes for ipolitics and Huffington Post and appears regulary on panels. People can debate whether he's the best candidate in PHP but I think he is likely the best known of the candidates...not that any of them are what anyone would call a "supernova".

Apparently Saron Gebreselassie lives in York South Weston and was riding association president there. i wonder why she didn't want the NDP nomination there? It elected a New Democrat provincially less than a year ago.

The other contender Paul Taylor seems to have impressive credentials but just moved to Toronto two years ago from Vancouver, has no history in the NDP and lives in Toronto Centre. I wonder why he doesnt run there? It also elected an NDP MPP last year by a wide margin and on top of that taylor is LGBTQ and Toronto Centre is where that community is centred.

Anyways, we shall see what happens.

So really, as per King of Kensington, it's likely that Gebresellassi and Taylor are looking for the best shots into Parliament.
Nothing stopping Taylor from running in TC if he loses PHP; and TC does sound like a better fit. But going up against the Finance Minister will be tough. Definitely in a better spot organisationally with Morrison as MPP.
For Gabresellassi, not sure why she did not run in YSW? it was an open nomination. She might be at a loss if she doesn't win the PHP nomination. Beaches-East York would be another targeted seat, but that's eastend so, maybe not. (Min Sook Lee basically has a lock on nomination Toronto-Danforth) 

[lilTommy]

NDP vote share in 2015 federal and 2018 provincial:

Beaches-East York  30.82% 48.21%
Davenport  41.36%  60.27%
Parkdale-High Park  40.24%  59.41%
Scarborough Southwest  23.73%  45.66%
Spadina-Fort York  27.28%  49.62%
Toronto Centre  26.61%  53.66%
Toronto-Danforth  40.17%  64.25%
University-Rosedale  28.59%  49.66%
York South-Weston  30.4%  36.07%

Interesting one we've already talked about:
Humber River-Black Creek - 10.74% - 37.41% (27.85% in 2011 federal)
- The NDP *can win here, but really depend on the CPC's also doing well. So with a strong candidate (Augimeri or T.Ford) could happen

The campaign research poll, some good notes for the NDP:
Toronto: LPC 36%, NDP 28% CPC 26% - very strong numbers, and most likely concentrated in about 10 riding's.

Trend lines:
Since February - The overall numbers show an increase from 14% -> 17%, LPC and CPC are both stagnant.
Jagmeet Singhs approval numbers - 16% in February, 24% now, Trudeau decrease, Scheer stagnant. Disapproval has decrease for JS from 39% to 29% (lowest disapproval rate of all three)

[lilTommy]

Took a weekend trip to Windsor for a sport I play, and met a local couple at a bar and talked to them. Boy did they hate Trudeau! One of them was really looking forward to October. His main critique of Trudeau was he saw him as a clown on the level of Trump and that Trudeau only saw politics as a game of division where everyone gets segregated into their tribes (race or whatever). His day job was he was in the mortgage business and was hands raised up in the air of "this government has no idea what is going on at ground level and have screwed up everything".

I suspect NDP will easily hold the two Windsor ridings.  Essex will be interesting as that could flip to Tories since it includes a lot of exurbs and fairly rural, but also could stay NDP.  The worse the Liberals do probably the better chances of NDP holding this, while if Liberal vote holds up here then Tories have good chance of flipping it.

I don't see the LPC vote tanking the way it did on ON18, down to 9%, but it won't be the 20% they got in FED15, so between there. The NDP can and should win this, Ramsey is more well known and more experienced then in 2015, but the NDP vote at this point is not what is was in 2015

Some good, relatively, news for the NDP; Indie-CCF MP Erin Weir will not run again this election in Regina–Lewvan:
"...My candidacy under another banner this year would not help to maintain progressive representation for Regina in Ottawa. Because the federal leader continues to veto my candidacy for the NDP, I will not run in the upcoming federal election."
a little sigh of relief that the party wouldn't have to face an Indie Erin on the ballot, or worse, a Green Erin.

[lilTommy]

NDP comes out for a "Green New Deal" type policy:

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2019/05/31/ndp-set-to-unveil-15-billion-climate-plan-that-would-slash-greenhouse-gas-emissions.html?fbclid=IwAR27XbCuk-CvvsXOerxWQmciNWu5AwQlfM6Pz5MW6_94XHGm5hQjA9e43j8

All about stopping those Greens. Singh really seems to be focusing on BC and Quebec only, seemingly under the assumption they'll gain about 7-8 seats elsewhere and that they won't end up losing seats like Essex or Elmwood-Transcona which they gained last time. They should keep a few of those (South Okanagan-West Kootenay and North Island-Powell River seem the most likely) but it's a gamble, certainly.

I think there's certainly a view in the NDP that seats in Quebec such as Hochelaga and Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou are still in play for them, which is certainly optimistic. I would argue holding onto 4 seats in Quebec would be a good result for them, (the four seats being Rosemont-La Petite Patrie, Rimouski-Neigette, Berthier-Maskinonge and Sherbrooke, so not impossible. After that it gets a lot harder.) Although there's a general consensus that the Liberals may be saved by gains in Quebec (like Tory gains in Scotland,) it's actually far from clear . The myth that all Liberal seats in Quebec are somehow easy holds is rather ridiculous - if I were David Graham or Michel Picard I'd be worried. And many of their targets like Salaberry-Suroit, Hochelaga, and Beloeil-Chambly seem more likely to go Bloc at this point.

I'd argue that this is a plan that is much more representative of the memberships direction. The loss of Nanaimo-Ladysmith I would argue was the catalyst for the party leadership to move the platform in the direction of where the membership is (also we have to accept the defeat was CLEARLY a response to the BCNDP rather then Singh's NDP). A response to the green surge? partly yes, but more a re-alignment to where the base is sitting right now, which has been in the works probably over the past year or two.

This policy is getting a very positive response from party supporters/members (many who I saw were wary towards Singh) so this is winning the base. This is also getting good response from Unions and organized labour, as well as strong support from environmentalist. Again typically NDP "considering" groups.
To your point, I think there is a focus on Ontario here too as well as an urban one. Now this policy will not help in Alberta (outside Edmonton and even then), and to some extent Saskatchewan; BUT there is a populist tilt here too so in these provinces, and more rural areas see those aspects being focused (saves you money, creates jobs, etc)

BUT what this does do, is sets the tone for the entire climate/environment debate, taking some wind out of the sails of the Greens partly and the Liberals (who were kind of weak in this area anyway). The NDP is now the only party to not support Oil&Gas and pipeline expansion (Greens support internal gas use and pipelines) federally.

[lilTommy]

Christine Moore, NDP MP for Abitibi-Témiscamingue will not run again. She can be added to the list of incumbents not running.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection

She had a lot of bad press recently and was never offered a senior role by Mulcair or Singh this Parliament.

Very likely Liberal gain.

I find that Northern Ontario's remaining strength for Liberals and the NDP contradicts the seeming worldwide trend of rural extractive areas moving rightward. Even in BC, the Kootenays are drifting rightward.

But it is in line with the increasingly common trend of minorities voting against conservatives.

"Minorities" in what sense?  First Nations?

If anything, thanks to Ford/Kenney et al, Canada's been a place where minorities (not FN, but definitely ethnoburbia) have been trending *to* conservatives.  And when it comes to "rural extractive areas", Northern Ontario's probably more analogous to, say, northern Sweden than West Virginia...

What we are seeing in Canada is that minorities as a whole (non-white european, non-indigenous/first nations) are swing voters. This is visible in areas like the Vancouver suburbs and Toronto's 905. They gave Harper is majority eventually in 2011, and Trudeau his in 2015.
I don't believe "minorities" are a solid voting block either really, I would say Urban minorities and suburban minorities vote somewhat differently too.
someone who is more knowledgeable on this could comment but I believe in BC the East Asian community (Chinese, Japanese, etc) were far more BC Liberal (right-wing) while the South Asian community (sikh's, Indian's, etc) were more NDP leaning.

[lilTommy]

This is all rumour, but I have heard talk that she strongly dislikes Gary Burrill, the leader of the NS NDP. She thinks he's taking the party in a too Halifax-centric direction (a perennial complaint from non Halifax NDPers).

I guess her decision kind of makes sense from that standpoint

Although Burrill was originally an MLA for a rural riding and only ran for a Halifax seat as a parachute candidate after he lost his seat in the 2013 election. Zann ran for the NS NDP leadership as the far left candidate claiming the party was way too centrist and had to be more socialist and go back to its roots. Now she is willing to throw in with the federal Liberals in a seat she will almost certainly lose...just doesnt make sense

What makes Truro-Bible Hill an NDP seat anyway? I suppose it is the only really dense seat outside HRM or Cape Breton.

Cumberland-Colchester is the likeliest Tory gain in Nova Scotia, probably followed by one of the Fraser seats. Zann may be from Truro, but she adds no bonus for voters in e.g. Amherst or Debert - she'll only win the nomination if she gets people who think: 'Wow! Lenore Zann, running for the Liberals! Let's nominate her!'

In fairness, Eddie Orrell's bid for Sydney-Victoria also seems a bit stupid.

I think it was fair to say that Truro-Bible Hill wasn't an NDP seat, but a Zann-Seat. I feel her personal popularity/notoriety helped her hold the seat in 2013 and then increase her vote in 2017. I don't see this seat really staying NDP though... unless an equally high profile-well known NDP candidate is in place.

I also do find it odd as someone who was placing themselves left of the current leadership would bolt to a centrist Federal party? The NDP would have made more sense. But I think her infighting with Burrill and thinking the LPC has a better shot then the NDP at least was part of it... still disappointing

[lilTommy]

Over the weekend, at the Ontario NDP convention, Jagmeet Singh released, basically, the platform for 2019 election:
https://www.ndp.ca/courage?fbclid=IwAR2owrUOeBCxRh1E5e3E5WmzEMmfinmrLPjOsD2a14rNVpkU_P0lJ8lKC50

The Star did a pretty decent summary:
https://www.thestar.com/amp/politics/federal/2019/06/16/ndp-election-platform-promises-head-to-toe-health-care.html?__twitter_impression=true&fbclid=IwAR3xRcFLl-YKu7CWMu7wWLOheYOrZU3mbeB3Vv7FvvOB33GkesV1yFmsg-Y

Summary:
- "goal of making post-secondary education tuition-free" remove the interest from student loans and shift to non-repayable grants.
- cap cellphone bills, Telecom Consumers’ Bill of Rights
- $1 billion per year to support provincial child care programs.
- basic income pilot project,
- drug decriminalization
- change employment insurance so people can qualify after working fewer hours; introduce new payouts so no recipients have to live on less than $1,200 per month.
- Postal Banking, restore door-to-door service
- $5 billion into the federal government’s national housing programs within two years, to build 500,000 new affordable units within a decade.
- In its first four years in power, spend $15 billion to fight climate change by building more public transit, subsidizing zero-emission vehicles that are built in Canada, and funding green programs and infrastructure through a new $3-billion “climate bank.
- a push to retrofit all buildings so they are energy-efficient by 2050 — would create at least 300,00 new jobs.
- Universal pharmacare by the end of 2020, with an initial federal price tag of $10 billion per year.
- will work over the next decade to extend Canada’s health care system into dental, vision and hearing care, mental health services, long term home care and addictions treatment.
- create a new, 1-per-cent tax on people whose net worth is more than $20 million — a 1 per cent tax on the 1 per cent. This would apply to net worth over that amount, so someone worth $25 million would get a 1 per cent tax on their excess $5 million.
- hike the federal corporate income tax from 15 per cent to 18 per cent, increase the top federal income tax bracket, for people earning more than $210,000 per year, from 33 to 35 per cent.
- increasing how much capital gains income is subject to tax ($3Bin revenues), and another $1 billion annually by closing tax loopholes like stock option compensation for corporate executives.
- cancelling tax breaks for the oil and gas industry that are estimated to be worth more than $3 billion per year, redirect into programs listed here
- Introducing a form of Mixed Member Proportional

There's more but I haven't read the whole thing yet! it's like 100 pages!

[lilTommy]

Two Liberal MPs not running. Geng Tan of Don Valley North and Frank Baylis of Pierrefonds-Dollard.

Don Valley North will be "interesting" the conservative candidate is the woman who tried to drink water out of a full sized cardboard box. social media fail.

[lilTommy]

Trans Canada pipeline has been approved:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tasker-trans-mountain-trudeau-cabinet-decision-1.5180269?fbclid=IwAR1a35cg-2WVKCH1eVltWkj9PVsMvFfjDBN1iNIhc1fl-7hcWCK_jUTcbjg

Expect a bump for the NDP and Greens (even though they support pipelines in general, but not this one). May see some soft centre-centre-right support move back from CPC to the LPC to compensate on the loss they will have in votes to the NDP and Greens. Expect some loss in support in Quebec too.

[lilTommy]

Trans Canada pipeline has been approved:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tasker-trans-mountain-trudeau-cabinet-decision-1.5180269?fbclid=IwAR1a35cg-2WVKCH1eVltWkj9PVsMvFfjDBN1iNIhc1fl-7hcWCK_jUTcbjg

Expect a bump for the NDP and Greens (even though they support pipelines in general, but not this one). May see some soft centre-centre-right support move back from CPC to the LPC to compensate on the loss they will have in votes to the NDP and Greens. Expect some loss in support in Quebec too.

Pretty bad electorally - doubt that the small centre right party will be significant, and probably wouldn't keep them any Alberta seats still, but they may have just given Svend Robinson his seat in Parliament.

Agreed, I'm thinking more of a bump in say Ontario, or a stabilization and perhaps a small bit in Alberta; Edmonton Centre and maybe Calgary Centre might feel a little more comfortable, the more "progressive" parts of the big cities (minus Edmonton-Strathcona which i'd normally say is a good call for the NDP, but I honestly can't tell). Might also have made Goodale breath a little easier in Regina-Wascana.

[lilTommy]

In the most hotly contested NDP nomination, probably in the country, Toronto's Parkdale-High Park, the NDP nominated Paul Taylor, Executive of FoodShare Toronto.
I believe he won on the first ballot.
But there are rumblings that many of Saron's supporters were not registered and the executive was not-so-subtly trying to support one candidate over the others.

[lilTommy]

Nanos June 21st:

CPC - 32.82%  -1.18%
LPC - 32.53%  +2.21%
NDP - 16.90%  +0.14
GRN - 10.18%  -1.19%

vs May 17th:
                         Current Trend
CPC - 35.89%    -> -3.07%
LPC - 30.64%    -> +1.89%
NDP - 14.19%   -> +2.71%
GRN - 11.14%   -> -0.96%

Trend - Generally decrease for the CPC and the Greens, increase for the LPC and the NDP; The Liberals seem to be gaining back support mostly from the Greens, some of that is going to the NDP as well. I'd also suspect some small move from CPC -> LPC due to TMX

[lilTommy]

Weekly Nanos numbers,change since last week:

LPC - 34.65% - +0.15
CPC - 30.38% - -1.32
NDP - 17.91% - +1.37
GRN - 8..77% - -1.03

I wish I could see the regionals but Nanos now makes you subscribe so pfft.

Trend: LPC have gained about 4% since June, the NDP gained about 2%. This is the highest the NDP has polled since March. Gains here for the LPC and NDP at the expense of the CPC, the CPC lost about 4% since June, the Greens are backdown to their normal polling averages, losing about 3% since June.

For the LPC and NDP in particular, the trend is even better when you go back two months and look at May, where we had highs for the CPC and Greens, vs current polling:

LPC - 30.64% - +3.74 (vs current)
CPC - 35.89% - -5.51
NDP - 14.19% - +3.72
GRN - 11.14% - -2.37

[lilTommy]

Who will succeed Singh?

Sven Robinson is outspoken and probably could get media attention and visibility.

Svend Robinson, Niki Ashton, Charlie Angus, Guy Caron, Alexandre Boulerice

Some others to think about: REB, Tracey Ramsey, Andrew Cash

[lilTommy]

Who will succeed Singh?

Sven Robinson is outspoken and probably could get media attention and visibility.

Svend Robinson, Niki Ashton, Charlie Angus, Guy Caron, Alexandre Boulerice

Some others to think about: REB, Tracey Ramsey, Andrew Cash

Not a bad list. You could add Peter Julian. Trouble is, it's possible only two of those win (Angus and Boulerice, add Julian for a third). That would be a really bad result for the NDP and I think they can definitely do better - but it isn't outside the realms of possibility.

Ya, *depending on if they win*

There are a couple other names of candidates that "could" be leadership contenders but have no Parliamentary experience. I'm thinking of a couple of notables from municipal politics:
Laurel Collins in Victoria, Matthew Green in Hamilton Centre or Taylor Bachrach in Skeena-Bulkley Valley

another MP that I wouldn't be surprised if they ran for leadership: Daniel Blakie

[lilTommy]

https://t.co/x89C1D93Sa

First riding poll of the campaign is from Mainstreet in Niagara Centre. Liberal Vance Badawey (39%) leads Con April Jeffs by 11 (incl. undecideds), former NDP MP Malcolm Allen who was believed to be the favourite came third on 17%. Last time, Badawey unseated Allen by 4.

While he's running again, given how his party's polling and how he no longer has incumbent advantage, I think it's jumping the gun to say Allen was believed to be the favourite (even if leftish social media a la Babble would like to think so)

There are a lot of those people who still think the NDP will have net gains. But in fairness, a lot of people on EPP didn't expect this either (I thought Allen was able to win)

People think that? That's optimistic. The NDP are in a really rough spot electorally right now.

I don't see how it can happen really. It would either involve the NDP winning back seats like Ottawa Centre, Halifax or Northwest Territories, all of which should stay Liberal, or the NDP regaining their position against the Conservatives and holding up in the West, assuming they don't recover in Quebec. None of those look possible or likely.

Never doubt hyper partisans ability to talk up their chances though. If you listened to them you could expect Liberal wins in Lethbridge and Louis Saint Laurent and Conservative wins in Lac Saint Louis and Victoria.

I think some of the "net gains" wishful-think argument might involve stuff like "Singhburbia" or wherever Horwathmania reaped Ontario rewards in 2018.

Incidentally, it's worth noting that in Niagara Centre (or Welland, as it was then known), Allen forced Liberal incumbent John Maloney into 3rd place in 2008--and then in the 2011 rematch, the Iggy disaster relegated Maloney to a *really* distant 14% as both NDP and CPC were 40%+.  So maybe a bit of deja vu re Allen's current polling underperformance.

This is not unrealistic; Niagara Centre has a long history of voting NDP, mostly provincially but Allen was a two term MP, and is a high profile Candidate taking on a low-profile Liberal MP.

The point I want to make is that campaigns matter. We only have to look at 2015. Polling from August 2015 looked like - NDP 39%, CPC 28%, LPC 25% and we all know how the Third polling party for most of the time then won the election.
This will be an NDP target, so that means resources that may or may not have been there in 2015.

If we look at momentum, the NDP from Ipsos and Nanos (who had weekly polling going) have the NDP up to 18%, from Nanos that a 4% gain in 2 months. There is a mild momentum towards the NDP mostly coming from the Greens I'd wager. We also have a stable lead for the LPC now and a decreasing/stabilizing CPC.

[lilTommy]

and some they've won provincially that I would be quite shocked if they win this fall. 

Etobicoke North for one, I presume.

Yeah I am pretty sure the Tories won't win that, although I think the swing in their favour will probably be more favourable than most ridings in the province, but still a lot of ground to overcome and not sure what riding view is on Ford now.  He has dropped massively provincewide, so expect some drop there, but also that is the turf of Ford Nation so probably polling better than in most parts of the province but doubt it will be nearly enough for Tories to win in this fall.

Though one wild card in Ford Nation turf: Renata Ford's PPC candidacy.

I don't think she's running as part of the Ford clan, though, so that could make a difference as well.

Rob Ford's wife, but definitely OUT with the official Ford Clan who are wrapped around Doug. I think she may grab some of that Ford personal conservative vote, and that may be just enough to keep this with the LPC. Interestingly Etobicoke North was one of the 30+ seats the LPC held after the 2011 disaster, and by 10 points.

[lilTommy]

Abacus Poll:
https://abacusdata.ca/dead-heat-in-national-support-as-the-federal-election-approaches/#.XU6fuI4zV5c.twitter

CPC - 33% +1
LPC - 32% =
NDP - 17% +1
GRN - 10% -1
BQ - 4% =

Regionals:

BC: CPC - 30%, LPC - 29%, NDP - 22%, GRN - 17%
AB: CPC - 58%, LPC 25%, NDP - 13%, GRN - 5%
S/M: CPC - 44%, LPC - 25%, NDP - 22%, GRN - 5%
ON: LPC - 35%, CPC - 30%, NDP - 21%, GRN - 9%
QC: LPC - 36%, CPC - 24%, BQ - 18%, NDP - 9%, GRN - 9%
ATL: LPC - 44%, CPC - 24%, GRN - 12%, NDP - 10%

[lilTommy]

It seems in the possibility of winning seats, the plural is important. I don't know if the criteria is two or it's more.

The commission has consulted available opinion polls, riding projection sites and independent pollsters. None of these sources project, at this time, that the People's Party of Canada has a legitimate chance to elect more than one candidate," Johnston said.

Johnston said the decision to exclude Bernier could be reversed if the party submits a list of three to five ridings where the party believes it is most likely to elect a candidate — and then, Johnston said, the debate commission would conduct independent polling of its own in those ridings to verify that Bernier's chosen candidate has a reasonable chance of winning that seat.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-debate-commission-maxime-bernier-out-1.5244287

I wonder what seats Bernier sees as the most winnable for the PPC. Maybe some of the former Tory MPs? I don't think anybody else has a chance at winning aside from Bernier, but maybe some can hit 10% of the vote, which would be doubtful for debate qualification.

Steven Fletcher's riding? He could potentially get 10-15%.

Possibly Etobicoke North with Renata Ford, She could pull a good solid chunk of that Ford nation vote, likely not much more then 25% though, eh?

[lilTommy]

Slogans of political parties

CPC: It's time for you to get ahead / Plus. Pour vous. Dès maintenant.

LPC: Choose forward / Choisir d’avancer

NDP: In it for you / On se bat pour vous

Green: Not Left. Not Right. Forward Together / Ni à droite ni à gauche. Vers l’avant ensemble

BQ: Le Québec, c'est nous

PPC: Strong and free

Interesting the NDP, CPC french slogans are not the same as the English ones, while the GPC and LPC are more literal translations

CPC translates to "More. For you. Right now"
NDP translates to "We fight for you"

both are more, straight forward, even aggressive or intense then the English slogans. The NDP french ad is also more forceful and bold. For Singh to have his hair out, turban off is very personal and intimate of a message.