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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #325 on: April 16, 2019, 12:47:15 PM »

In the Toronto riding of Humber River-Black Creek, I am hearing that veteran city councillor Maria Augimeri and former TDSB trustee and 2018 council candidate Tiffany Ford are interested in the NDP nomination. 
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lilTommy
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« Reply #326 on: April 16, 2019, 12:54:48 PM »

In the Toronto riding of Humber River-Black Creek, I am hearing that veteran city councillor Maria Augimeri and former TDSB trustee and 2018 council candidate Tiffany Ford are interested in the NDP nomination. 

WOW, stellar candidates the both of them! I'd be happy if either were to run! Augimeri's ward unfortunately was not in Humber River-Black Creek (was the Downsview portion of York Centre).
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #327 on: April 22, 2019, 06:43:37 PM »

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beesley
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #328 on: April 23, 2019, 02:39:38 PM »

The retirement list seems to have reached an end. The Conservative retirements aren't that significant. For the Liberals, the two most interesting for me are in Cumberland-Colchester, to finally conclude what the Bill Casey effect really did, plus Oakville as Kevin Flynn is running for the Grits. There is another former MPP, Yvan Baker running against a former CPC MP (as well as Peter Fonseca, but he's an incumbent in a similar race to Baker.) Should be interesting to see how personal vote plays out here.

The NDP have of course lost the most personal vote. They could have a frontbench of Singh, plus only Peter Julian, Alexandre Boulerice, Don Davies, Niki Ashton, Jenny Kwan and Brian Masse, which is being generous to them in my definition of top players. This is with Nathan Cullen, Murray Rankin, Linda Duncan, Romeo Saganash, Irene Mathyssen and David Christopherson all retiring, as well as Ruth Ellen Brosseau, Matthew Dube and Daniel Blaikie losing. They have a few good quieter MPs, such as Wayne Stetski (also very vulnerable), Sheri Benson, Richard Cannings, Gord Johns and Scott Duvall, but they are looking to have one of their worst caucuses at this rate. On the plus side, Andrew Cash, Paul Taylor and Yafet Tewelde, could be good candidates if they win, which is likely in the first two cases, plus there are possible returns from Svend Robinson and Jack Harris. If Harris runs, he'd likely win against an awful MP in Nick Whalen.
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adma
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« Reply #329 on: April 23, 2019, 06:20:56 PM »


The NDP have of course lost the most personal vote. They could have a frontbench of Singh, plus only Peter Julian, Alexandre Boulerice, Don Davies, Niki Ashton, Jenny Kwan and Brian Masse, which is being generous to them in my definition of top players. This is with Nathan Cullen, Murray Rankin, Linda Duncan, Romeo Saganash, Irene Mathyssen and David Christopherson all retiring, as well as Ruth Ellen Brosseau, Matthew Dube and Daniel Blaikie losing. They have a few good quieter MPs, such as Wayne Stetski (also very vulnerable), Sheri Benson, Richard Cannings, Gord Johns and Scott Duvall, but they are looking to have one of their worst caucuses at this rate. On the plus side, Andrew Cash, Paul Taylor and Yafet Tewelde, could be good candidates if they win, which is likely in the first two cases, plus there are possible returns from Svend Robinson and Jack Harris. If Harris runs, he'd likely win against an awful MP in Nick Whalen.

You forgot Charlie Angus.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #330 on: April 24, 2019, 08:03:31 AM »


The NDP have of course lost the most personal vote. They could have a frontbench of Singh, plus only Peter Julian, Alexandre Boulerice, Don Davies, Niki Ashton, Jenny Kwan and Brian Masse, which is being generous to them in my definition of top players. This is with Nathan Cullen, Murray Rankin, Linda Duncan, Romeo Saganash, Irene Mathyssen and David Christopherson all retiring, as well as Ruth Ellen Brosseau, Matthew Dube and Daniel Blaikie losing. They have a few good quieter MPs, such as Wayne Stetski (also very vulnerable), Sheri Benson, Richard Cannings, Gord Johns and Scott Duvall, but they are looking to have one of their worst caucuses at this rate. On the plus side, Andrew Cash, Paul Taylor and Yafet Tewelde, could be good candidates if they win, which is likely in the first two cases, plus there are possible returns from Svend Robinson and Jack Harris. If Harris runs, he'd likely win against an awful MP in Nick Whalen.

You forgot Charlie Angus.

You are assuming REB, Dube and Blaikie will lose; REB and Dube won in 2015, I likely see them both winning again, REB I am more confident with. Blaikie I see winning again, recent polling has the NDP up in Winnipeg and his profile is much stronger now over 2015 when he was new.

You left out Tracey Ramsey who was (along with Blaikie) one of two pick-up's in 2015 for the NDP (who was high profile during the SNC hearings), Jenny Kwan longtime BC MLA and former Cabinet Minister, Pierre-Luc Dusseault another 2015 survivor and the youngest ever MP and now a finance critic, Guy Caron a leadership candidate and a highly regarded economist in his own right.

Your forgetting for candidates Matthew Green a Hamilton City Councillor to replace Christopherson, Lauren Collins another City Councillor replacing Murray; Bonita Zarrillo, city Councillor replacing Donnelly in Port Moody—Coquitlam... all strong local candidates
in Parkdale-High Park you have Saron Gebresellassi former mayoral candidate going against Paul Taylor (two high profile candidates who are in strong positions to win);
filmaker/lecturer Min Sook Lee in TO-Danforth, another prime target
Christine Saulnier with the CDN Centre for Policy Alternatives n Halifax
Leah Gazan, lecturer and leader of Idle No More Indigenous movement in WinCen. and Bob Chamberlin a BC grand chief running in Nanaimo-Ladysmith by-election.
To replace Cullen, there a strong cast so far; Annita McPhee the President of the Tahltan Central Government, Taylor Bachrach Mayor of Smithers and Smithers Town Councillor Greg Brown.

I could go on, but I think discrediting the NDP is a mistake as there are strong candidates in place along with strong MPs... who might not be on the MSM.
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beesley
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« Reply #331 on: April 24, 2019, 09:57:45 AM »


The NDP have of course lost the most personal vote. They could have a frontbench of Singh, plus only Peter Julian, Alexandre Boulerice, Don Davies, Niki Ashton, Jenny Kwan and Brian Masse, which is being generous to them in my definition of top players. This is with Nathan Cullen, Murray Rankin, Linda Duncan, Romeo Saganash, Irene Mathyssen and David Christopherson all retiring, as well as Ruth Ellen Brosseau, Matthew Dube and Daniel Blaikie losing. They have a few good quieter MPs, such as Wayne Stetski (also very vulnerable), Sheri Benson, Richard Cannings, Gord Johns and Scott Duvall, but they are looking to have one of their worst caucuses at this rate. On the plus side, Andrew Cash, Paul Taylor and Yafet Tewelde, could be good candidates if they win, which is likely in the first two cases, plus there are possible returns from Svend Robinson and Jack Harris. If Harris runs, he'd likely win against an awful MP in Nick Whalen.

You forgot Charlie Angus.

You are assuming REB, Dube and Blaikie will lose; REB and Dube won in 2015, I likely see them both winning again, REB I am more confident with. Blaikie I see winning again, recent polling has the NDP up in Winnipeg and his profile is much stronger now over 2015 when he was new.

You left out Tracey Ramsey who was (along with Blaikie) one of two pick-up's in 2015 for the NDP (who was high profile during the SNC hearings), Jenny Kwan longtime BC MLA and former Cabinet Minister, Pierre-Luc Dusseault another 2015 survivor and the youngest ever MP and now a finance critic, Guy Caron a leadership candidate and a highly regarded economist in his own right.

Your forgetting for candidates Matthew Green a Hamilton City Councillor to replace Christopherson, Lauren Collins another City Councillor replacing Murray; Bonita Zarrillo, city Councillor replacing Donnelly in Port Moody—Coquitlam... all strong local candidates
in Parkdale-High Park you have Saron Gebresellassi former mayoral candidate going against Paul Taylor (two high profile candidates who are in strong positions to win);
filmaker/lecturer Min Sook Lee in TO-Danforth, another prime target
Christine Saulnier with the CDN Centre for Policy Alternatives n Halifax
Leah Gazan, lecturer and leader of Idle No More Indigenous movement in WinCen. and Bob Chamberlin a BC grand chief running in Nanaimo-Ladysmith by-election.
To replace Cullen, there a strong cast so far; Annita McPhee the President of the Tahltan Central Government, Taylor Bachrach Mayor of Smithers and Smithers Town Councillor Greg Brown.

I could go on, but I think discrediting the NDP is a mistake as there are strong candidates in place along with strong MPs... who might not be on the MSM.


I don't think REB or Dube will win, I appreciate your optimism, but I just don't see it. Some polls have the NDP at 7% in Quebec. REB, Caron and Boulerice are the only candidates I can see getting re-elected (maybe Dusseault or Aubin stuns us all.) Ramsey and Blaikie are also quite vulnerable in my view, and to say that Ramsey is a good candidate isn't wrong, but so is Chris Lewis. The CPC are also doing very well in the Prairies; people did not expect Toet to defeat Maloway in 2011 and he only lost very narrowly last time. Granted, some of those Indigenous Candidates will be strong. And how could I forget Charlie Angus? I had wanted him to win the election. In a way, they all seem good against the hyper-partisan Liberal representatives in my opinion.

My point is that may still not be enough for the NDP. With their numbers, they are unlikely to lose . And where there are candidates like Matthew Green, inevitably they may have a hard time filling the footsteps of someone like David Christopherson. Seats like Fin Donnelly's were notionally Conservative in 2011, and so they are at risk. The seats gained on Vancouver Island are probably not going Conservative again (other than the two Northern ones if we're in CPC majority or near-majority territory), but in the Southern half they are undoubtedly at risk.

I'm a CPC/NB PCs supporter so I feel we have equally good candidates, but the effec . Just like for you, someone like Daniel Lee should definitely win in Willowdale, but if the Liberals do well Ali Ehsassi would win. Same goes for Marty Morantz in Charleswood-St James, Rick Perkins in South Shore-St Margaret's, Irshad Chaudhry in Scarborough Centre, and Milad Mikael in Mississauga Centre. Some CPC MPs like Robert Gordon Kitchen in Souris-Moose Mountain, Rachael Harder in Lethbridge, Bob Saroya in Markham-Unionville and Cathy Wagantall in Yorkton-Melville get little coverage for themselves outside of their ridings despite being talented and experienced.
They could and in some cases should be in the executive in my view, but if they don't win then that's due to national trends. Voters won't recognise these new NDP candidates as well as their predecessors, or they may abandon their personal vote if they no longer find the NDP palatable (that applies particularly in Quebec, and I don't think that's solely due to this popular notion that Jagmeet Singh and his turban are out of step with Quebec, but simply because the NDP is no longer the progressive voice for Quebec in government or the main opposition party Quebecers can coalesce behind.)
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lilTommy
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« Reply #332 on: April 24, 2019, 12:57:19 PM »


The NDP have of course lost the most personal vote. They could have a frontbench of Singh, plus only Peter Julian, Alexandre Boulerice, Don Davies, Niki Ashton, Jenny Kwan and Brian Masse, which is being generous to them in my definition of top players. This is with Nathan Cullen, Murray Rankin, Linda Duncan, Romeo Saganash, Irene Mathyssen and David Christopherson all retiring, as well as Ruth Ellen Brosseau, Matthew Dube and Daniel Blaikie losing. They have a few good quieter MPs, such as Wayne Stetski (also very vulnerable), Sheri Benson, Richard Cannings, Gord Johns and Scott Duvall, but they are looking to have one of their worst caucuses at this rate. On the plus side, Andrew Cash, Paul Taylor and Yafet Tewelde, could be good candidates if they win, which is likely in the first two cases, plus there are possible returns from Svend Robinson and Jack Harris. If Harris runs, he'd likely win against an awful MP in Nick Whalen.

You forgot Charlie Angus.

You are assuming REB, Dube and Blaikie will lose; REB and Dube won in 2015, I likely see them both winning again, REB I am more confident with. Blaikie I see winning again, recent polling has the NDP up in Winnipeg and his profile is much stronger now over 2015 when he was new.

You left out Tracey Ramsey who was (along with Blaikie) one of two pick-up's in 2015 for the NDP (who was high profile during the SNC hearings), Jenny Kwan longtime BC MLA and former Cabinet Minister, Pierre-Luc Dusseault another 2015 survivor and the youngest ever MP and now a finance critic, Guy Caron a leadership candidate and a highly regarded economist in his own right.

Your forgetting for candidates Matthew Green a Hamilton City Councillor to replace Christopherson, Lauren Collins another City Councillor replacing Murray; Bonita Zarrillo, city Councillor replacing Donnelly in Port Moody—Coquitlam... all strong local candidates
in Parkdale-High Park you have Saron Gebresellassi former mayoral candidate going against Paul Taylor (two high profile candidates who are in strong positions to win);
filmaker/lecturer Min Sook Lee in TO-Danforth, another prime target
Christine Saulnier with the CDN Centre for Policy Alternatives n Halifax
Leah Gazan, lecturer and leader of Idle No More Indigenous movement in WinCen. and Bob Chamberlin a BC grand chief running in Nanaimo-Ladysmith by-election.
To replace Cullen, there a strong cast so far; Annita McPhee the President of the Tahltan Central Government, Taylor Bachrach Mayor of Smithers and Smithers Town Councillor Greg Brown.

I could go on, but I think discrediting the NDP is a mistake as there are strong candidates in place along with strong MPs... who might not be on the MSM.


I don't think REB or Dube will win, I appreciate your optimism, but I just don't see it. Some polls have the NDP at 7% in Quebec. REB, Caron and Boulerice are the only candidates I can see getting re-elected (maybe Dusseault or Aubin stuns us all.) Ramsey and Blaikie are also quite vulnerable in my view, and to say that Ramsey is a good candidate isn't wrong, but so is Chris Lewis. The CPC are also doing very well in the Prairies; people did not expect Toet to defeat Maloway in 2011 and he only lost very narrowly last time. Granted, some of those Indigenous Candidates will be strong. And how could I forget Charlie Angus? I had wanted him to win the election. In a way, they all seem good against the hyper-partisan Liberal representatives in my opinion.

My point is that may still not be enough for the NDP. With their numbers, they are unlikely to lose . And where there are candidates like Matthew Green, inevitably they may have a hard time filling the footsteps of someone like David Christopherson. Seats like Fin Donnelly's were notionally Conservative in 2011, and so they are at risk. The seats gained on Vancouver Island are probably not going Conservative again (other than the two Northern ones if we're in CPC majority or near-majority territory), but in the Southern half they are undoubtedly at risk.

I'm a CPC/NB PCs supporter so I feel we have equally good candidates, but the effec . Just like for you, someone like Daniel Lee should definitely win in Willowdale, but if the Liberals do well Ali Ehsassi would win. Same goes for Marty Morantz in Charleswood-St James, Rick Perkins in South Shore-St Margaret's, Irshad Chaudhry in Scarborough Centre, and Milad Mikael in Mississauga Centre. Some CPC MPs like Robert Gordon Kitchen in Souris-Moose Mountain, Rachael Harder in Lethbridge, Bob Saroya in Markham-Unionville and Cathy Wagantall in Yorkton-Melville get little coverage for themselves outside of their ridings despite being talented and experienced.
They could and in some cases should be in the executive in my view, but if they don't win then that's due to national trends. Voters won't recognise these new NDP candidates as well as their predecessors, or they may abandon their personal vote if they no longer find the NDP palatable (that applies particularly in Quebec, and I don't think that's solely due to this popular notion that Jagmeet Singh and his turban are out of step with Quebec, but simply because the NDP is no longer the progressive voice for Quebec in government or the main opposition party Quebecers can coalesce behind.)

I think we need to be clear with Quebec, right now we can't predict it. The NDP have polled as high as around 20% and as low as, as you mentioned 7%. My feeling is for REB, she can likely survive due in part to her solidified position. I can realistically see the NDP hold 10-12 of their MPs if the NDP polls on the high side of 18% or so.

For Ramsey; the Windosr-Essex region while the CPC will increase the voter, should remain NDP as much of that will be LPC; while Lewis is a good candidate and performed well in the provincials, the three ridings all remained NDP on a massive swing towards the PCs province wide. Now we are post Ford, who has not done the Conservative image any favour. Ramsey has incumbency as well as a very good term under her belt. CPC will win more seats in ON, I feel the trend will look like ON18, gains in the GTA area, and Eastern/NE Ontario where the seats are LPC (Bay of Quinte, Northumberland, Nipissing)
Agreed, the CPC is polling very high out west, I can see the CPC winning 4 in Winnipeg and 4 in Alberta all held by the LPC)
My point with the new candidates replacing highly regarded MPs, the local ridings have done a good job of finding locally well known candidates with government experience (municipal) these are all (with the exception of Port Moody-Coquitlam) strong NDP seats. The Van suburbs are true three way races, and the CPC and NDP have all been up in BC.
All those CPC candidates, I agree I can see them winning.
For the NDP, I think we are seeing, slowly some of the NDP->LPC voters from 2015 migrating back. Jagmeet is performing well in the House, and policy wise have made strong announcements (that importantly is pleasing the base, in contract to Mulcair) The sunny ways LPC is gone and the boogeyman and fear mongering LPC is back (and some of that is justified since Scheer is frightfully regressive socially and scares people like me) I'm NDP/Dem.Socialist if you could not tell Tongue

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beesley
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« Reply #333 on: April 24, 2019, 01:52:45 PM »


The NDP have of course lost the most personal vote. They could have a frontbench of Singh, plus only Peter Julian, Alexandre Boulerice, Don Davies, Niki Ashton, Jenny Kwan and Brian Masse, which is being generous to them in my definition of top players. This is with Nathan Cullen, Murray Rankin, Linda Duncan, Romeo Saganash, Irene Mathyssen and David Christopherson all retiring, as well as Ruth Ellen Brosseau, Matthew Dube and Daniel Blaikie losing. They have a few good quieter MPs, such as Wayne Stetski (also very vulnerable), Sheri Benson, Richard Cannings, Gord Johns and Scott Duvall, but they are looking to have one of their worst caucuses at this rate. On the plus side, Andrew Cash, Paul Taylor and Yafet Tewelde, could be good candidates if they win, which is likely in the first two cases, plus there are possible returns from Svend Robinson and Jack Harris. If Harris runs, he'd likely win against an awful MP in Nick Whalen.

You forgot Charlie Angus.

You are assuming REB, Dube and Blaikie will lose; REB and Dube won in 2015, I likely see them both winning again, REB I am more confident with. Blaikie I see winning again, recent polling has the NDP up in Winnipeg and his profile is much stronger now over 2015 when he was new.

You left out Tracey Ramsey who was (along with Blaikie) one of two pick-up's in 2015 for the NDP (who was high profile during the SNC hearings), Jenny Kwan longtime BC MLA and former Cabinet Minister, Pierre-Luc Dusseault another 2015 survivor and the youngest ever MP and now a finance critic, Guy Caron a leadership candidate and a highly regarded economist in his own right.

Your forgetting for candidates Matthew Green a Hamilton City Councillor to replace Christopherson, Lauren Collins another City Councillor replacing Murray; Bonita Zarrillo, city Councillor replacing Donnelly in Port Moody—Coquitlam... all strong local candidates
in Parkdale-High Park you have Saron Gebresellassi former mayoral candidate going against Paul Taylor (two high profile candidates who are in strong positions to win);
filmaker/lecturer Min Sook Lee in TO-Danforth, another prime target
Christine Saulnier with the CDN Centre for Policy Alternatives n Halifax
Leah Gazan, lecturer and leader of Idle No More Indigenous movement in WinCen. and Bob Chamberlin a BC grand chief running in Nanaimo-Ladysmith by-election.
To replace Cullen, there a strong cast so far; Annita McPhee the President of the Tahltan Central Government, Taylor Bachrach Mayor of Smithers and Smithers Town Councillor Greg Brown.

I could go on, but I think discrediting the NDP is a mistake as there are strong candidates in place along with strong MPs... who might not be on the MSM.


I don't think REB or Dube will win, I appreciate your optimism, but I just don't see it. Some polls have the NDP at 7% in Quebec. REB, Caron and Boulerice are the only candidates I can see getting re-elected (maybe Dusseault or Aubin stuns us all.) Ramsey and Blaikie are also quite vulnerable in my view, and to say that Ramsey is a good candidate isn't wrong, but so is Chris Lewis. The CPC are also doing very well in the Prairies; people did not expect Toet to defeat Maloway in 2011 and he only lost very narrowly last time. Granted, some of those Indigenous Candidates will be strong. And how could I forget Charlie Angus? I had wanted him to win the election. In a way, they all seem good against the hyper-partisan Liberal representatives in my opinion.

My point is that may still not be enough for the NDP. With their numbers, they are unlikely to lose . And where there are candidates like Matthew Green, inevitably they may have a hard time filling the footsteps of someone like David Christopherson. Seats like Fin Donnelly's were notionally Conservative in 2011, and so they are at risk. The seats gained on Vancouver Island are probably not going Conservative again (other than the two Northern ones if we're in CPC majority or near-majority territory), but in the Southern half they are undoubtedly at risk.

I'm a CPC/NB PCs supporter so I feel we have equally good candidates, but the effec . Just like for you, someone like Daniel Lee should definitely win in Willowdale, but if the Liberals do well Ali Ehsassi would win. Same goes for Marty Morantz in Charleswood-St James, Rick Perkins in South Shore-St Margaret's, Irshad Chaudhry in Scarborough Centre, and Milad Mikael in Mississauga Centre. Some CPC MPs like Robert Gordon Kitchen in Souris-Moose Mountain, Rachael Harder in Lethbridge, Bob Saroya in Markham-Unionville and Cathy Wagantall in Yorkton-Melville get little coverage for themselves outside of their ridings despite being talented and experienced.
They could and in some cases should be in the executive in my view, but if they don't win then that's due to national trends. Voters won't recognise these new NDP candidates as well as their predecessors, or they may abandon their personal vote if they no longer find the NDP palatable (that applies particularly in Quebec, and I don't think that's solely due to this popular notion that Jagmeet Singh and his turban are out of step with Quebec, but simply because the NDP is no longer the progressive voice for Quebec in government or the main opposition party Quebecers can coalesce behind.)

I think we need to be clear with Quebec, right now we can't predict it. The NDP have polled as high as around 20% and as low as, as you mentioned 7%. My feeling is for REB, she can likely survive due in part to her solidified position. I can realistically see the NDP hold 10-12 of their MPs if the NDP polls on the high side of 18% or so.

For Ramsey; the Windosr-Essex region while the CPC will increase the voter, should remain NDP as much of that will be LPC; while Lewis is a good candidate and performed well in the provincials, the three ridings all remained NDP on a massive swing towards the PCs province wide. Now we are post Ford, who has not done the Conservative image any favour. Ramsey has incumbency as well as a very good term under her belt. CPC will win more seats in ON, I feel the trend will look like ON18, gains in the GTA area, and Eastern/NE Ontario where the seats are LPC (Bay of Quinte, Northumberland, Nipissing)
Agreed, the CPC is polling very high out west, I can see the CPC winning 4 in Winnipeg and 4 in Alberta all held by the LPC)
My point with the new candidates replacing highly regarded MPs, the local ridings have done a good job of finding locally well known candidates with government experience (municipal) these are all (with the exception of Port Moody-Coquitlam) strong NDP seats. The Van suburbs are true three way races, and the CPC and NDP have all been up in BC.
All those CPC candidates, I agree I can see them winning.
For the NDP, I think we are seeing, slowly some of the NDP->LPC voters from 2015 migrating back. Jagmeet is performing well in the House, and policy wise have made strong announcements (that importantly is pleasing the base, in contract to Mulcair) The sunny ways LPC is gone and the boogeyman and fear mongering LPC is back (and some of that is justified since Scheer is frightfully regressive socially and scares people like me) I'm NDP/Dem.Socialist if you could not tell Tongue



Indeed. I should make it clear don't think the NDP will lose all those open seats. I can't see them losing Hamilton Centre or Skeena-Bulkley Valley. and I think they are the favourites in London-Fanshawe and Edmonton-Strathcona. Their strength in BC at different levels should help them in Nanaimo-Ladysmith as Horgan is doing decently in the relevant files. If you aren't on Election Prediction Project already, I wouldn't mind seeing some of your projections.

Side point, but if there is one NDP MP I wouldn't mind winning at the expense of the Conservatives, it's Georgina Jolibois. She has been a very strong MP on the Indigenous File, something both my party and the governing Liberals have failed on. Charlie Angus will win without question, but with Romeo Saganash gone, he could use another strong voice.  If any other group were flooded every year and needed help from the government, they would do a better job than this.

Indeed, the NDP class of 2015 are just as good, if not better than the class of 2011, which is probably a thing with waves where bad candidates can be elected. In 2011 you got Jonathan Genest-Jourdain, Brad Butt and Sana Hassainia, and in 2015 you got Nick Whalen, Rene Arseneault and Jati Sidhu (but there was a REB/Boulerice in 2011 and an Erskine-Smith/Wilson-Raybould/Blair in 2015.) Good candidates lose in bad elections and bad candidates win in good elections, which is unfortunate but that's party politics.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #334 on: April 24, 2019, 07:03:46 PM »

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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #335 on: April 24, 2019, 08:01:58 PM »

I see Duterte trashed Trudeau.
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beesley
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« Reply #336 on: April 28, 2019, 03:16:32 AM »

Rodger Cuzner, one of the best MPs in Ottawa is retiring. (he was the MP for Cape Breton-Canso)

Safe for the Grits, but this is their 5th retirement from Nova Scotia (Brison, Casey, Eyking, and C Fraser also.) Casey's seat will likely go blue, Fraser's is also at risk. The others are all advantage for the Liberals; Brison's old seat of Kings-Hants is the most vulnerable of the likely/safe Liberal districts here.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #337 on: April 28, 2019, 09:25:20 AM »

Rodger Cuzner, one of the best MPs in Ottawa is retiring. (he was the MP for Cape Breton-Canso)

Safe for the Grits, but this is their 5th retirement from Nova Scotia (Brison, Casey, Eyking, and C Fraser also.) Casey's seat will likely go blue, Fraser's is also at risk. The others are all advantage for the Liberals; Brison's old seat of Kings-Hants is the most vulnerable of the likely/safe Liberal districts here.

It will be interesting to see how much of the Liberals' Kings-Hants margin was Brison's personal vote. He was very popular there, but the riding is also more naturally Liberal than a typical rural Anglo one.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #338 on: April 28, 2019, 07:02:15 PM »

Pretty sure Cuzner's riding will stay Liberal, very safe one although ironically it did go mostly PC in the last provincial election but I doubt that will spill over federally.  Bill Casey's is most likely to flip, Fraser's possible but considering how heavily the area went Liberal I think they will hold it by a narrower margins.  Brison's is a traditional Tory seat, but a Red Tory one so I think Liberals have better chance here.  If federal Tories had a Red Tory leader they could probably win it, but ever since the merger there is no way the base would let that happen.  Looking at Nova Scotia in terms of potential Tory pickups.

I would say Cumberland-Colchester is only likely one at the moment.  Central Nova, West Nova, South Shore-St. Margaret's and Kings-Hants possible but not likely.  Central Nova would flip if Peter MacKay returned but I think with him out it will probably stay liberal but by a much narrower margin.  In South Shore-St. Margaret's, Gerald Keddy's wins were always very narrow and he benefited from a strong split on the left so if NDP does better than I think Tories could win it, but if they remain in the ditch Liberals should hold it even if Tories rebound to high 30s (that is their ceiling there).
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DL
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« Reply #339 on: April 28, 2019, 10:18:16 PM »

It’s also quite conceivable that the NDP could win back Halifax from the Liberals
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #340 on: April 29, 2019, 08:40:34 AM »

Well, there's about a week left in Nanaimo-Ladysmith, have there been any rumblings in the riding about how the race seems to be going?  Or has it been quiet?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #341 on: April 29, 2019, 12:56:12 PM »

Well, there's about a week left in Nanaimo-Ladysmith, have there been any rumblings in the riding about how the race seems to be going?  Or has it been quiet?

Hard to say, but I think it is fair to say the Liberals who were never strong to begin with there will win it.  Most likely the Greens or NDP.  A remote chance Tories win, but very unlikely.  Greens did well last time and are gaining in polls so could win.  Traditionally an NDP stronghold so wouldn't surprised if they held it.  Tories haven't won here since 2000 back when NDP was at low point and Canadian Alliance at high point in BC.  Although Tories did get 40% in 2011 and that was with the left united behind the NDP.  I doubt Tories will get much above 30%, but if they got in low 30s and had perfect splits possible, but essentially they would need to pull an inside straight.  So toss-up between Greens and NDP at the moment.
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beesley
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« Reply #342 on: April 29, 2019, 02:45:50 PM »

Well, there's about a week left in Nanaimo-Ladysmith, have there been any rumblings in the riding about how the race seems to be going?  Or has it been quiet?

Hard to say, but I think it is fair to say the Liberals who were never strong to begin with there will win it.  Most likely the Greens or NDP.  A remote chance Tories win, but very unlikely.  Greens did well last time and are gaining in polls so could win.  Traditionally an NDP stronghold so wouldn't surprised if they held it.  Tories haven't won here since 2000 back when NDP was at low point and Canadian Alliance at high point in BC.  Although Tories did get 40% in 2011 and that was with the left united behind the NDP.  I doubt Tories will get much above 30%, but if they got in low 30s and had perfect splits possible, but essentially they would need to pull an inside straight.  So toss-up between Greens and NDP at the moment.

Being on the opposite coast, you would have a better idea than I do, but I was under the impression that the NDP's chances had improved (partly due to star candidacy) and that the Greens were no longer the favourite. I suspect it will go down to the wire.

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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #343 on: April 29, 2019, 02:55:03 PM »

What are the odds that Trudeau wins reelection despite these scandals & controversies ?
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beesley
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« Reply #344 on: April 29, 2019, 03:06:59 PM »
« Edited: April 29, 2019, 03:10:42 PM by beesley »

What are the odds that Trudeau wins reelection despite these scandals & controversies ?

He's an underdog. Normally Canadian PMs trailing during their term, particularly at this stage go onto lose. He's not toast just yet, and gaining a few seats in Quebec (e.g. Abitibi-Temiscamingue) might put him over the line. But he's highly likely to lose his majority. Trailing by a few points is a significant blow - the numbers should mean more damage they imply. Indeed, all the fluke ridings (e.g. Hastings-Lennox, Fundy Royal, Kildonan) should be easy pickups for the Conservatives. The real battlegrounds appear to be what should've been the battlegrounds last time, but were actually comfortably Liberal (e.g. Glengarry, Fredericton, Coquitlam, and some further for the Conservatives e.g. West Nova, Delta, London-Fanshawe (an example of an open NDP seat the Conservatives are targeting)

A Leger poll just came out showing the Liberals trailing by 13%. It may be closer, but it's an indication that a Conservative majority is in reach.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #345 on: April 29, 2019, 03:13:39 PM »

What are the odds that Trudeau wins reelection despite these scandals & controversies ?

Retaining his majority will be tough but not impossible as I've seen leaders further back in the polls stage comebacks.  Christy Clark going into 2013, Greg Selinger going into 2011, Dalton McGuinty going into 2011, Jean Charest going into 2007, and Brian Mulroney going into 1988 were all further back so it is doable.  Holding his majority will be a challenge, but minority still possible.  If Tories fall short of a majority he probably remains PM as I almost certain NDP and Greens will back Liberals over Tories.  If BQ holds the balance of power then things could get interesting, but probably another election within a year.  A Tory majority looked far fetched six months ago while now much more realistic, but again a lot will depend on how Scheer performs on the campaign trail.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #346 on: April 29, 2019, 05:38:28 PM »

What are the odds that Trudeau wins reelection despite these scandals & controversies ?

Retaining his majority will be tough but not impossible as I've seen leaders further back in the polls stage comebacks.  Christy Clark going into 2013, Greg Selinger going into 2011, Dalton McGuinty going into 2011, Jean Charest going into 2007, and Brian Mulroney going into 1988 were all further back so it is doable.  Holding his majority will be a challenge, but minority still possible.  If Tories fall short of a majority he probably remains PM as I almost certain NDP and Greens will back Liberals over Tories.  If BQ holds the balance of power then things could get interesting, but probably another election within a year.  A Tory majority looked far fetched six months ago while now much more realistic, but again a lot will depend on how Scheer performs on the campaign trail.

How long could an arrangement like a minority Trudeau gov't last, realistically? I'm guessing nothing more than a couple years
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adma
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« Reply #347 on: April 29, 2019, 06:24:55 PM »

Well, there's about a week left in Nanaimo-Ladysmith, have there been any rumblings in the riding about how the race seems to be going?  Or has it been quiet?

Hard to say, but I think it is fair to say the Liberals who were never strong to begin with there will win it.  Most likely the Greens or NDP.  A remote chance Tories win, but very unlikely.  Greens did well last time and are gaining in polls so could win.  Traditionally an NDP stronghold so wouldn't surprised if they held it.  Tories haven't won here since 2000 back when NDP was at low point and Canadian Alliance at high point in BC.  Although Tories did get 40% in 2011 and that was with the left united behind the NDP.  I doubt Tories will get much above 30%, but if they got in low 30s and had perfect splits possible, but essentially they would need to pull an inside straight.  So toss-up between Greens and NDP at the moment.

Being on the opposite coast, you would have a better idea than I do, but I was under the impression that the NDP's chances had improved (partly due to star candidacy) and that the Greens were no longer the favourite. I suspect it will go down to the wire.


And I'll also assume that the NDP has a *lot* invested in the riding--and remember,  in BC, the affiliation is not a dirty or marginal word.  At this point, for the NDP to play second fiddle to the Greens is more of an east coast thing, not a west coast thing...
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trebor204
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« Reply #348 on: April 29, 2019, 09:01:13 PM »

The Leger Poll has the NDP at 12% and the Green at 11%

Regionally in Quebec the NDP are in 5th place (6%), behind Liberal (31%), Conservative (23%), BQ (23%) and Greens (9%), and only 2% ahead both the People's Party and Other.
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adma
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« Reply #349 on: April 30, 2019, 12:58:29 AM »

Right now, I suppose a real question is who will be included in the debates--if the Greens are polling this close to the NDP, the optics would look silly to include Jagmeet Singh yet exclude Elizabeth May...
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