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beesley
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« Reply #650 on: August 09, 2019, 07:14:02 AM »

I don't think Scheer would be a good PM, I simply don't see him in that role, he lacks gravitas to me. Justin isn't better by a large margin, but he has good PR at least. Stephen Harper, the last Conservative PM was dignified, proud and strong to me, while Scheer is not.

This is why although I would lean towards the CPC normally, I wouldn't say I'm supporting them this time, although I get to escape that choice.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #651 on: August 09, 2019, 07:23:04 AM »

MQO reserach is doing polls for each province in Atlantic Canada.  In Newfoundland, Liberals are ahead, but the shift since 2015 is pretty massive, mind you Liberal numbers there were so high reversion to the mean was probably expected.

Liberal 46%
Conservative 38%
NDP 11%
Green 2%
PPC 2%

Regardless of what any poll says - the NDP is almost certain to pick up St. John's East where they are running Jack Harris. He will win on the strength of his personal brand

Absolutely true. Atlantic Canada is where you predict based on local candidates and then adjust for polls, not the other way around.
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Poirot
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« Reply #652 on: August 09, 2019, 02:10:25 PM »

Mainstreet poll for Maxime's Bernier riding of Beauce

Conservative 33,5%
People's 33%
Liberal 19%
Bloc 6%
Green 4%
NDP 2%
Other 2,5%

Margin of error 3,87%, the question mentions parties and the leaders

66% are satisfied of the MP's work. Some of Bernier's ideas were polled.

67% agree gender parity in Cabinet is not a priority
56% agree mass immigration and extreme multiculturalism lead to social conflict and potential violence
42% agree to abolish supply management, 37% disagree
31% agree with idea of reopening the abortion debate
44% believe the federal government has nothing to do with climate change because environment is a shared jurisdiction and provinces have programs for it 

(don't know if there is a mistake in the last one. Seems like something Bernier would think but it is put in his two less popular ideas but it got 44%)

https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/sondage-mainstreet-bernier-dans-une-course-a-deux-8f68d267facebd41757d310dcc1e22d1

I don't know if this will influence the decision to include Bernier in the debate. The party has the number of candidates criteria and needs the probability of winning criteria. It is subjective but this poll tells Bernier has a chance of being elected.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #653 on: August 12, 2019, 08:17:46 AM »

Abacus Poll:
https://abacusdata.ca/dead-heat-in-national-support-as-the-federal-election-approaches/#.XU6fuI4zV5c.twitter

CPC - 33% +1
LPC - 32% =
NDP - 17% +1
GRN - 10% -1
BQ - 4% =

Regionals:

BC: CPC - 30%, LPC - 29%, NDP - 22%, GRN - 17%
AB: CPC - 58%, LPC 25%, NDP - 13%, GRN - 5%
S/M: CPC - 44%, LPC - 25%, NDP - 22%, GRN - 5%
ON: LPC - 35%, CPC - 30%, NDP - 21%, GRN - 9%
QC: LPC - 36%, CPC - 24%, BQ - 18%, NDP - 9%, GRN - 9%
ATL: LPC - 44%, CPC - 24%, GRN - 12%, NDP - 10%
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #654 on: August 12, 2019, 09:21:41 AM »

MQO reserach is doing polls for each province in Atlantic Canada.  In Newfoundland, Liberals are ahead, but the shift since 2015 is pretty massive, mind you Liberal numbers there were so high reversion to the mean was probably expected.

Liberal 46%
Conservative 38%
NDP 11%
Green 2%
PPC 2%

Regardless of what any poll says - the NDP is almost certain to pick up St. John's East where they are running Jack Harris. He will win on the strength of his personal brand

Absolutely true. Atlantic Canada is where you predict based on local candidates and then adjust for polls, not the other way around.

Jack Harris winning is by no means a slam dunk. He didn't win in 2015, after all. I think it will be close.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #655 on: August 12, 2019, 02:09:56 PM »

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gottsu
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« Reply #656 on: August 12, 2019, 02:56:12 PM »

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

Liberals just can't keep gaining traction.

And by the way, why Bernier and his Popular Party has so small support and what about Greens?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #657 on: August 12, 2019, 03:38:46 PM »

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

Liberals just can't keep gaining traction.

And by the way, why Bernier and his Popular Party has so small support and what about Greens?

Bernier quit the Tories and didn't really bring much of a constituency with him. That is at least in part because the Tories have bad memories of the last party split keeping them out of power. Plus his conversion to right wing populism is quite new, so the party was kind of directionless, caught between libertarianism and right wing populism until quite recently. Overall not a good recipe to pick up a lot of support.
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gottsu
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« Reply #658 on: August 12, 2019, 04:08:18 PM »

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

Liberals just can't keep gaining traction.

And by the way, why Bernier and his Popular Party has so small support and what about Greens?

Bernier quit the Tories and didn't really bring much of a constituency with him. That is at least in part because the Tories have bad memories of the last party split keeping them out of power. Plus his conversion to right wing populism is quite new, so the party was kind of directionless, caught between libertarianism and right wing populism until quite recently. Overall not a good recipe to pick up a lot of support.

But do you see the room in Canadian public life for such party? I mean, how much percent of electorate have such views as Bernier? Are right-wing populists and libertarians pose a real threat to Tories?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #659 on: August 12, 2019, 05:20:11 PM »

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

Liberals just can't keep gaining traction.

And by the way, why Bernier and his Popular Party has so small support and what about Greens?

Bernier quit the Tories and didn't really bring much of a constituency with him. That is at least in part because the Tories have bad memories of the last party split keeping them out of power. Plus his conversion to right wing populism is quite new, so the party was kind of directionless, caught between libertarianism and right wing populism until quite recently. Overall not a good recipe to pick up a lot of support.

But do you see the room in Canadian public life for such party? I mean, how much percent of electorate have such views as Bernier? Are right-wing populists and libertarians pose a real threat to Tories?

I think after past split in the 90s, plus more recent one in Alberta, most on right have learned you cannot win unless you are united under one banner and most on right loathe Trudeau so desire to remove Trudeau trumps everything else.  Still there is a strong libertarian and right wing populist element in the party, after all Bernier nearly won, so if Scheer loses and doesn't stay on, its not out of the realm the next leader won't be in this mode, but no one I can think of at the moment who fits that mold and has high enough name recognition to win.

I also think once the results of right wing populism are seen, there will be less support down the line.  Libertarianism has never been really popular, but its support goes in waves.  When government gets too big and we have major financial issues, you can run on a small government platform and win, see Mike Harris in the 90s, but right at the moment I think the fatigue with austerity makes running on such platform a very tough sell.  Never mind in 90s, public concern was mainly about economic growth whereas now I think it is more about inclusive growth and libertarianism is good for creating growth, but almost all the gains tend to go to the rich and little trickle down to poor and middle class thus the Liberals would use class warfare limiting its ability to win.
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adma
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« Reply #660 on: August 12, 2019, 06:29:45 PM »


I think after past split in the 90s, plus more recent one in Alberta, most on right have learned you cannot win unless you are united under one banner and most on right loathe Trudeau so desire to remove Trudeau trumps everything else.  Still there is a strong libertarian and right wing populist element in the party, after all Bernier nearly won, so if Scheer loses and doesn't stay on, its not out of the realm the next leader won't be in this mode, but no one I can think of at the moment who fits that mold and has high enough name recognition to win.

*harrumph* *harrumph* Doug Ford, except that at this point his "high enough name recognition" isn't exactly of the winning sort...
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mileslunn
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« Reply #661 on: August 12, 2019, 09:00:05 PM »


I think after past split in the 90s, plus more recent one in Alberta, most on right have learned you cannot win unless you are united under one banner and most on right loathe Trudeau so desire to remove Trudeau trumps everything else.  Still there is a strong libertarian and right wing populist element in the party, after all Bernier nearly won, so if Scheer loses and doesn't stay on, its not out of the realm the next leader won't be in this mode, but no one I can think of at the moment who fits that mold and has high enough name recognition to win.

*harrumph* *harrumph* Doug Ford, except that at this point his "high enough name recognition" isn't exactly of the winning sort...

True, but if Tories gain in every province save Ontario, but lose ground there, I doubt they will be stupid enough to choose him as leader.  There may be some members who care about ideology more than electability, but you have to be pretty oblivious to whats going on to think Doug Ford could win nationally.
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Vosem
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« Reply #662 on: August 12, 2019, 11:44:03 PM »

If (as I gather polls are currently showing) the Tories gain in literally every province but decline or stay about still in Ontario, and Liberals are reduced to a minority government, would Scheer stay around as leader? It'd be pretty easy to point at the improvement and just blame Ford. Or is the perception of Scheer as a non-entity already pretty set at this point? Who might even replace him -- would O'Toole be any better? (Or someone else)?

A poor performance for the federal Conservatives would not endanger Ford's rule of the provincial party, correct? It doesn't seem like 2008 or 2011 reflected badly on McGuinty at all, or like federal politics impacts provincial politics this way in other provinces. It seems to me like hatred of Trudeau on the right might be strong enough to endanger ill will if Ford is blamed for Trudeau's survival, but that might just be my provincialism, since effects like this with Harper and leftist premiers weren't seen.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #663 on: August 13, 2019, 09:37:43 AM »

If (as I gather polls are currently showing) the Tories gain in literally every province but decline or stay about still in Ontario, and Liberals are reduced to a minority government, would Scheer stay around as leader? It'd be pretty easy to point at the improvement and just blame Ford. Or is the perception of Scheer as a non-entity already pretty set at this point? Who might even replace him -- would O'Toole be any better? (Or someone else)?

That's largely a question of expectations, and narrative (kind of like coaches in pro sports), so we won't really know until after the election. For example: before Trudeau's JWR debacle, I suspect  most Tories would have been happy with Scheer holding the Liberals to a minority. Now that Tories have been more or less tied with the Liberals for the past several months, expectations have risen and a Liberal minority would probably be perceived as Scheer fumbling a winnable election. My guess (emphasis on guess) is that if he will survive if he wins the most seats but the Liberals form government anyway, or if he holds the Liberals to a very weak minority, but he's gone if the Liberals win a stronger minority.

There's no obvious leader in waiting right now, which helps Scheer a little bit. Bernier had that spot before, but he's not an option anymore. O'Toole might be the most likely candidate, but again, we will have to see how the election shapes up before we can make a reasonable guess about new leaders.

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DL
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« Reply #664 on: August 13, 2019, 12:37:38 PM »


A poor performance for the federal Conservatives would not endanger Ford's rule of the provincial party, correct? It doesn't seem like 2008 or 2011 reflected badly on McGuinty at all, or like federal politics impacts provincial politics this way in other provinces.

Actually there is a long history of unpopular provincial governments costing their federal cousins votes and seats in Canadian elections. In 1979 the extreme unpopularity of the rightwing Manitoba PC government under Sterling Lyon cost the federal PCs several seats and could have been the difference between the Joe Clark government surviving or losing power.

In 1997, the Nova Scotia Liberals were extremely unpopular - the federal Liberals went from holding all 11 federal seats in NS to holding zero of them!

In 1974, 1997 and 2000 the federal NDP suffered heavy losses in BC because of the unpopularity of the BC NDP governments in those times.

The backlash against Mike Harris is widely seen as having contributed to the Liberals under Chretien sweeping Ontario in 1997 and 2000.

A backlash against Dalton McGuinty is seen as having cost the federal Liberals a lot of seats in Ontario in 2004 and 2006 and 2008 
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mileslunn
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« Reply #665 on: August 13, 2019, 12:43:17 PM »

If (as I gather polls are currently showing) the Tories gain in literally every province but decline or stay about still in Ontario, and Liberals are reduced to a minority government, would Scheer stay around as leader? It'd be pretty easy to point at the improvement and just blame Ford. Or is the perception of Scheer as a non-entity already pretty set at this point? Who might even replace him -- would O'Toole be any better? (Or someone else)?

A poor performance for the federal Conservatives would not endanger Ford's rule of the provincial party, correct? It doesn't seem like 2008 or 2011 reflected badly on McGuinty at all, or like federal politics impacts provincial politics this way in other provinces. It seems to me like hatred of Trudeau on the right might be strong enough to endanger ill will if Ford is blamed for Trudeau's survival, but that might just be my provincialism, since effects like this with Harper and leftist premiers weren't seen.

It depends.  If the party loses seats, he is gone or if the gains are minimal, but if the Tories say win 140 seats but still fall short, I think most will say he is moving them in the right direction so get to stay on.  As for losses elsewhere but not Ontario meaning a minority, not necessarily as lets not forget Quebec since although the Tories aren't likely to lose ground there, the NDP has imploded there and the Liberals could easily scoop up most of those seats thus cancelling out losses in Western and Atlantic Canada.  

Reason McGuinty didn't leave after 2008 and 2011 is losses for Liberals were from coast to coast so you couldn't pinpoint it to one provincial leader, it was an overall shift thus the blame got laid on the federal leader.  If Scheer gains in every province except Ontario while loses ground there, it will be pretty obvious it was not a national swing, but it was because of Ford.  I doubt Ford will resign, but I suspect you will see more pushback from his MPPs and probably a high number of MPPs not running again in 2022 as well as perhaps even a few quitting to sit as independents or maybe even cross the floor to the Liberals (although skeptical about this, maybe one or two, but not sure that will even happen).  You could also see Elliott, Mulroney or others with leadership ambitions organize behind the scenes much like Paul Martin did in the 90s

As for replacement leader, no obvious one, but Erin O'Toole is one and perhaps some of the big names like John Baird or Peter MacKay who sat out might jump in this time.  It was widely expected whomever won in 2017 leadership race would be a caretaker leader since Trudeau would get a second term and then the next leader would be the next PM, so by 2023, Trudeau having been in office for 8 years and negative baggage that goes with that, I could see some who sat out last one jumping in this time.  Heck even Caroline Mulroney with all of Ford's troubles, might decide there is a better future in federal than provincial politics.  Likewise Gerald Detell is another dark horse to watch.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #666 on: August 13, 2019, 12:49:35 PM »


A poor performance for the federal Conservatives would not endanger Ford's rule of the provincial party, correct? It doesn't seem like 2008 or 2011 reflected badly on McGuinty at all, or like federal politics impacts provincial politics this way in other provinces.


In 1997, the Nova Scotia Liberals were extremely unpopular - the federal Liberals went from holding all 11 federal seats in NS to holding zero of them!

In 1974, 1997 and 2000 the federal NDP suffered heavy losses in BC because of the unpopularity of the BC NDP governments in those times.

The backlash against Mike Harris is widely seen as having contributed to the Liberals under Chretien sweeping Ontario in 1997 and 2000.

A backlash against Dalton McGuinty is seen as having cost the federal Liberals a lot of seats in Ontario in 2004 and 2006 and 2008 

True enough although in case of Nova Scotia, Liberals took a big hit in 1997 throughout Atlantic Canada so many blamed it on EI changes more than unpopular Liberal government.

For BC in 1993 and 2000, NDP performed badly coast to coast so while BC NDP probably did hurt federal counterparts, it wasn't as obvious, however the case in 1997 was somewhat stronger as NDP bombed in the four largest provinces (hadn't ever done well in Quebec or Alberta at the point, while bad memories of Rae still persisted in Ontario), but they did okay in the smaller provinces.

Mike Harris was hard to say as while unpopular, Ontario had a perfect split on the right whereas provinces west of it saw most of the right wing vote go to Reform/Alliance, and provinces of east of it mostly to PCs so many blamed vote splitting on right more for Liberal dominance as after all nearly 4 in 10 voted for a party on the right, but unlike other provinces, it was pretty much split down the middle.

McGuinty may have had a negative impact, but in all three cases Liberals did better in Ontario than they did nationally despite losing seats so some chalked it up to national swings.

So I agree Ford will hurt Scheer, but it depends on how blatantly obvious it is with the results.  If you see a swing towards Tories in Ontario, but just weaker than elsewhere, people will be able to claim reasons.  But if Tories make sizeable gains in every other province, but lose ground in Ontario than it will be more obvious.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #667 on: August 13, 2019, 01:35:23 PM »

Kinda dumb they've decided to exclude Bernier from the debates when that Mainstreet poll literally just came out showing a tie in Beauce (i.e. the party has a chance at winning seats... or by "seats", they mean they have to have a chance at winning more than one?)
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beesley
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« Reply #668 on: August 13, 2019, 03:09:50 PM »

Kinda dumb they've decided to exclude Bernier from the debates when that Mainstreet poll literally just came out showing a tie in Beauce (i.e. the party has a chance at winning seats... or by "seats", they mean they have to have a chance at winning more than one?)

I hear they've asked them to name 3-5 seats they can win before they make the final decision, but you'll have to fact check me.
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Poirot
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« Reply #669 on: August 13, 2019, 04:20:56 PM »

It seems in the possibility of winning seats, the plural is important. I don't know if the criteria is two or it's more.

Quote
The commission has consulted available opinion polls, riding projection sites and independent pollsters. None of these sources project, at this time, that the People's Party of Canada has a legitimate chance to elect more than one candidate," Johnston said.

Johnston said the decision to exclude Bernier could be reversed if the party submits a list of three to five ridings where the party believes it is most likely to elect a candidate — and then, Johnston said, the debate commission would conduct independent polling of its own in those ridings to verify that Bernier's chosen candidate has a reasonable chance of winning that seat.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-debate-commission-maxime-bernier-out-1.5244287
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VPH
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« Reply #670 on: August 13, 2019, 04:25:31 PM »

It seems in the possibility of winning seats, the plural is important. I don't know if the criteria is two or it's more.

Quote
The commission has consulted available opinion polls, riding projection sites and independent pollsters. None of these sources project, at this time, that the People's Party of Canada has a legitimate chance to elect more than one candidate," Johnston said.

Johnston said the decision to exclude Bernier could be reversed if the party submits a list of three to five ridings where the party believes it is most likely to elect a candidate — and then, Johnston said, the debate commission would conduct independent polling of its own in those ridings to verify that Bernier's chosen candidate has a reasonable chance of winning that seat.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-debate-commission-maxime-bernier-out-1.5244287

I wonder what seats Bernier sees as the most winnable for the PPC. Maybe some of the former Tory MPs? I don't think anybody else has a chance at winning aside from Bernier, but maybe some can hit 10% of the vote, which would be doubtful for debate qualification.
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adma
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« Reply #671 on: August 13, 2019, 06:35:42 PM »


In 1974, 1997 and 2000 the federal NDP suffered heavy losses in BC because of the unpopularity of the BC NDP governments in those times.

For BC in 1993 and 2000, NDP performed badly coast to coast so while BC NDP probably did hurt federal counterparts, it wasn't as obvious, however the case in 1997 was somewhat stronger as NDP bombed in the four largest provinces (hadn't ever done well in Quebec or Alberta at the point, while bad memories of Rae still persisted in Ontario), but they did okay in the smaller provinces.

Actually, I seem to recall that the Harcourt government *was* beset by enough controversy by 1993 so as to affect federal results--which together with Rae in Ontario, made for a 1-2 whammy that almost obliterated the federal NDP.  (Whereas in Saskatchewan, the only province with a "popular" NDP provincial government, they kept 5 of the 9 seats they were able to salvage nationwide.)

It's a wonder that DL didn't mention the NDP in 1993--it wasn't all about Audrey McLaughlin's inadequacy; in fact, that is *the* classic case of unpopular provincial governments crippling the federal party.

Also, in 1988, the messy collapse of the provincial NDP government in Manitoba adversely affected the party's federal results, with two of their longtime central Winnipeg strongholds falling to the Liberals.  (Which brings us to an inverse matter: that of the federal Liberals in 1988 being *boosted* by popular provincial parties--Carstairs-mania in Winnipeg, and the Peterson government in Ontario, especially)
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Vosem
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« Reply #672 on: August 13, 2019, 10:06:25 PM »


A poor performance for the federal Conservatives would not endanger Ford's rule of the provincial party, correct? It doesn't seem like 2008 or 2011 reflected badly on McGuinty at all, or like federal politics impacts provincial politics this way in other provinces.

Actually there is a long history of unpopular provincial governments costing their federal cousins votes and seats in Canadian elections. In 1979 the extreme unpopularity of the rightwing Manitoba PC government under Sterling Lyon cost the federal PCs several seats and could have been the difference between the Joe Clark government surviving or losing power.

In 1997, the Nova Scotia Liberals were extremely unpopular - the federal Liberals went from holding all 11 federal seats in NS to holding zero of them!

In 1974, 1997 and 2000 the federal NDP suffered heavy losses in BC because of the unpopularity of the BC NDP governments in those times.

The backlash against Mike Harris is widely seen as having contributed to the Liberals under Chretien sweeping Ontario in 1997 and 2000.

A backlash against Dalton McGuinty is seen as having cost the federal Liberals a lot of seats in Ontario in 2004 and 2006 and 2008 

Yes, I know that provincial government popularity or lack thereof often affects federal results in Canada. (While the reverse seems to happen somewhat less often and not be as strong). My question was whether a federal election result had ever brought down a provincial premier? Like, let's say there are large Conservative gains in every province but large losses in Ontario, and as a result Trudeau is reelected with a bare minority government. Would there be pressure on Ford to step aside? And has anything like that happened before?
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beesley
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« Reply #673 on: August 14, 2019, 12:43:17 AM »

It seems in the possibility of winning seats, the plural is important. I don't know if the criteria is two or it's more.

Quote
The commission has consulted available opinion polls, riding projection sites and independent pollsters. None of these sources project, at this time, that the People's Party of Canada has a legitimate chance to elect more than one candidate," Johnston said.

Johnston said the decision to exclude Bernier could be reversed if the party submits a list of three to five ridings where the party believes it is most likely to elect a candidate — and then, Johnston said, the debate commission would conduct independent polling of its own in those ridings to verify that Bernier's chosen candidate has a reasonable chance of winning that seat.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-debate-commission-maxime-bernier-out-1.5244287

I wonder what seats Bernier sees as the most winnable for the PPC. Maybe some of the former Tory MPs? I don't think anybody else has a chance at winning aside from Bernier, but maybe some can hit 10% of the vote, which would be doubtful for debate qualification.

Steven Fletcher's riding? He could potentially get 10-15%.
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adma
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« Reply #674 on: August 14, 2019, 06:03:56 AM »

Also, in 1988, the messy collapse of the provincial NDP government in Manitoba adversely affected the party's federal results, with two of their longtime central Winnipeg strongholds falling to the Liberals.  (Which brings us to an inverse matter: that of the federal Liberals in 1988 being *boosted* by popular provincial parties--Carstairs-mania in Winnipeg, and the Peterson government in Ontario, especially)


Speaking of 1988, the PCs were damaged by unpopular provincial governments in Saskatchewan and (in Socred guise) BC--and in both cases, the federal NDP gains reflected their provincial status as OO and governments-in-waiting...
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