Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

It doesn't appear anyone addressed my question yet. what is the deal with Orman? Is he a centrist, what?

Isn't it incredibly dangerous for the vote against Theocratic government in KS to be split? Isn't that just opening the path for continued GOP governance?

1. According to the KC Star, it's rather difficult to determine exactly what Orman's positions are.

2. Yes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why is he always doing this the last minute?

I suspect that a lot of it is that he thinks he knows which way things are going, and wants to be seen as having influenced the winner (e.g. Kemp in Georgia -- Kemp was going to win anyway before Trump jumped on the bandwagon.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump tweet for Kobach.

Not surprising. Goodbye Mr. Colyer.

Kobach strong on the border? Donny, you realize what a governor's role is and you also find Kansas in a map?

He wants to keep out the liberals from Colorado.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump tweet for Kobach.

Not surprising. Goodbye Mr. Colyer.

Kobach strong on the border? Donny, you realize what a governor's role is and you also find Kansas in a map?

He wants to keep out the liberals from Colorado.

A wall that Colorado pays for?

Sure, with all that drug money.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A slim chance remaining Colyer wins the primary? Trump is not too popular in KS and Colyer is still an incumbent more likely to keep the seat in Nov.

I'm not sure what's better? Take the risk to end up with Kobach but increase Dem chances, or write the state off and give it to Colyer, who is still strong right-wing, but somehow turned into the mainstream candidate because of the alternative.

Colyer still has a slight chance of winning today, though it would be a surprise. If I were a Democrat I'd be rooting for Colyer, Kobach isn't as strong for November, but he still has a very good chance of winning because of Orman. I know a handful of Democrats who are registered GOP, will vote Democratic in November, but are voting for Colyer today.

I don't follow your logic.  Isn't Orman going to be there in November regardless of who the Republicans nominate?  Therefore the Democrats should want the weakest possible R.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A slim chance remaining Colyer wins the primary? Trump is not too popular in KS and Colyer is still an incumbent more likely to keep the seat in Nov.

I'm not sure what's better? Take the risk to end up with Kobach but increase Dem chances, or write the state off and give it to Colyer, who is still strong right-wing, but somehow turned into the mainstream candidate because of the alternative.

Colyer still has a slight chance of winning today, though it would be a surprise. If I were a Democrat I'd be rooting for Colyer, Kobach isn't as strong for November, but he still has a very good chance of winning because of Orman. I know a handful of Democrats who are registered GOP, will vote Democratic in November, but are voting for Colyer today.

I don't follow your logic.  Isn't Orman going to be there in November regardless of who the Republicans nominate?  Therefore the Democrats should want the weakest possible R.

He is supposed to take more Dem votes away. That means Kobach could win with 45% of the vote.

OK, that makes sense.  Thanks.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A slim chance remaining Colyer wins the primary? Trump is not too popular in KS and Colyer is still an incumbent more likely to keep the seat in Nov.

I'm not sure what's better? Take the risk to end up with Kobach but increase Dem chances, or write the state off and give it to Colyer, who is still strong right-wing, but somehow turned into the mainstream candidate because of the alternative.

Colyer still has a slight chance of winning today, though it would be a surprise. If I were a Democrat I'd be rooting for Colyer, Kobach isn't as strong for November, but he still has a very good chance of winning because of Orman. I know a handful of Democrats who are registered GOP, will vote Democratic in November, but are voting for Colyer today.

I don't follow your logic.  Isn't Orman going to be there in November regardless of who the Republicans nominate?  Therefore the Democrats should want the weakest possible R.

Well, maybe this is just a crazy idea, but some prefer each party nominating the best candidate to help ensure that Kansas has the best governor possible.

Let me see if I can word this in a simpler way that you can understand: Orman takes away more votes from the Democrats, which will benefit both Republican candidates.

No need to be snippy.  I got your point after Sir Mohamed explained it, and FWIW I agree with the premise that one should want the best candidate (from one's viewpoint) to be nominated by each party, since any of them might win, and you want to avoid the worst choice.  But my point was that D's who are rooting tactically may in fact want Kobach to win the primary since he's perceived as a weaker GE candidate (although I would think that tactic would be somewhat tarnished after many D's rooted for Trump in 2016!)

[GeorgiaModerate]

What the heck? 191 votes? Someone tell me again every vote doesn't count.

If there is a recount, who will most likely benefit?

Kobach, because as Secretary of State he will find a way to make himself win. I wouldn't put it past him.

"Hmm....all of these Colyer votes were cast by illegal aliens!  Throw them out!"

[GeorgiaModerate]

It would be hysterical if this ends in a tie.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I really don't know why Kobach didn't wait until Roberts likely retirement in 2020, I would figure his attention-whoring ways would be better served in the senate than as a small-state governor.

Side Note: am I the only one here surprised to learn that both Colyer and Kobach are Oxford-educated?

I wouldn't have expected that, so count me as surprised too.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not saying that Kobach would necessarily do something like this, but just as an example of what a partisan SoS can do in this type of situation, here's a cautionary tale from the Indiana CD 8 election in 1984.  Incumbent Frank McCloskey (D) was running against Republican Rick McIntyre:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

A protracted recount battle with maybe a few court challenges thrown in would be fun.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/alexburnsNYT/status/1027692793349787648

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kobach agrees to recuse himself from the recount.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/APjdhanna/status/1027988040097193986

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/APjdhanna/status/1027988040097193986

wow, Im actually on edge. This feels like some sort of drama.

Yep, I feel like making popcorn.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quit hijacking my state’s thread. We don’t get attention that often so I’d like for this to stay focused on what’s actually happening in Kansas.

You could report their posts for derailing the thread.  The mods on this board are pretty good about handling that when it happens.  (I have smoltchanov on ignore so I'm not seeing a lot of it.  This is a good idea too.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1028872676524347392

Court challenge in 3...2...1...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Thanks to tmthforu94 for these continuing updates!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's a Solomon-like suggestion: put them both on the GE ballot.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I have a feeling that if the situations were reversed, Kobach would not be as quick to concede.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1029594083361206272

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

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