COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Revised further downward to 60,000 deaths.

Never should have shut the economy. Stupid overreaction.

Did you get your check yet, GOP?

[Mr. Reactionary]

Maga folk: "LOL, chillax bro, it's just the common cold!"

Meanwhile, Roger Stone:

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1251508031206146055

I mean, I don't believe anything Roger Stone says so I don't know why we should believe him now.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Revised further downward to 60,000 deaths.

Never should have shut the economy. Stupid overreaction.

This model assumes that (a) we are now just past the peak in deaths/day and (b) once we are passed the peak, deaths will drop at approximately the same rate that the increased before we reached the peak.

I am willing to accept that (a) might very well be true, especially if we correctly distribute the “probable” deaths added to the total this week.

But (b) seems almost certainly way off given the pattern we have seen in every other country that implements lockdowns slightly earlier than we did.

[Sir Mohamed]

Maga folk: "LOL, chillax bro, it's just the common cold!"

Meanwhile, Roger Stone:

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1251508031206146055

What a scandal. But the Mexican kids and non-violent drug offenders that are locked up for peanuts compated to this dude's criminal conduct. Who cares?

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Revised further downward to 60,000 deaths.

Never should have shut the economy. Stupid overreaction.

Did you get your check yet, GOP?

Didn’t get it bc IRS doesn’t have my direct deposit info so won’t have it until next week. But at least I got an answer.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Revised further downward to 60,000 deaths.

Never should have shut the economy. Stupid overreaction.

This model assumes that (a) we are now just past the peak in deaths/day and (b) once we are passed the peak, deaths will drop at approximately the same rate that the increased before we reached the peak.

I am willing to accept that (a) might very well be true, especially if we correctly distribute the “probable” deaths added to the total this week.

But (b) seems almost certainly way off given the pattern we have seen in every other country that implements lockdowns slightly earlier than we did.

This has been bothering me as well.  Some models seem to be assuming a symmetrical curve that will decline as quickly as it grew.  But as you say, so far the pattern seems to be that the decline is much slower than the increase.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MSpicuzzaMJS/status/1251248586328813580?s=20

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1251466666355183616?s=20

[wbrocks67]

Revised further downward to 60,000 deaths.

Never should have shut the economy. Stupid overreaction.

You realize... that it's down to 60,000....  BECAUSE of the stringent measures we've taken over the last month? How are people this dense?!

[Omega21]

Revised further downward to 60,000 deaths.

Never should have shut the economy. Stupid overreaction.

You realize... that it's down to 60,000....  BECAUSE of the stringent measures we've taken over the last month? How are people this dense?!

Excuse me, I believe the PC term for that nowadays is mentally thicc.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Revised further downward to 60,000 deaths.

Never should have shut the economy. Stupid overreaction.

The fact that you looked at these numbers (that still show 60K people dying) and immediately thought that we overreacted rather than that our social distancing is working and that our healthcare workers have done a fantastic job is absolutely appalling.

[Grassroots]

Ron DeSantis is the mayor from Jaws, isn’t he?

Yes, that or The Bay.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Chill out about DeSantis opening the beaches. It’s down pouring rain here, and should some of our red avatars ever leave their basement hideaway they’d know that the beach in Florida is very, very, very long. I think the beach is way more safe than a grocery store or doctor’s waiting room.

[jimrtex]

Don't get me wrong, I love your charts, and I don't doubt your knowledge, but why is your chart showing Italy's active case numbers falling but on worldmeters...

Meclazine is imputing recoveries.

If you are testing positive, within 14 to 21 days, you will either be dead or recovered.

When you are tested, there will be triage. If you are suffering severe respiratory discomfort you'll be hospitalized. You will either be rolled out on a gurney, walk out, or perhaps taken home to recuperate further.

Otherwise you will be told to go home and quarantine isolated even from your family. Keep hydrated watch your temperature, and stay inside. Your family will likely also be tested.

It is unlikely anyone will do followup or officially report a recovery.

Yup, Jim is spot on and phrased it better than i could.

Basically, after testing, you are deemed positive or negative.

Three weeks ago, say Mar 25, sick people presenting in Italy got tested and they had, up until that date, 74,300 positive tests.

What I am saying is that out of that 74,000, they may have had 5-14 days of symptoms before being tested. So after a further 14 days, we are looking at someone who is 19-28 days post initial infection.

I am saying that after 19-28 days, you are either a recovery or a mortality statistic.

So underneath each graph, I list recoveries. For Italy, I have added 73,400 recoveries slowly increasing across the data.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

The Active Cases on my plot and the Daily Death Rate on their graph both peaked on March 28-30.

If you look at the World-o-metres graph, it will never peak, because of low levels of reporting recoveries. All of a sudden, Italy will report 100,000 recoveries on one day.

Wait and watch.

Something I've noticed is that raw death rates (total deaths/total cases) are almost universally creeping up. It doesn't matter if it is Germany, Italy, USA, or Australia.

I can think of two possibilities:

(1) It is becoming more lethal, which might indicate your recovery estimates are too low;

(2) asymptomatic or mild cases are not being tested, therefore those actually tested have more severe symptoms when tested. If this is true, you are missing "cases" and "recoveries". If someone does not know they are ill, can they really be said to have recovered?

I'm guessing that (2) is true. It is consistent with some preliminary testing for antigens.

[Grassroots]

Don't get me wrong, I love your charts, and I don't doubt your knowledge, but why is your chart showing Italy's active case numbers falling but on worldmeters...

Meclazine is imputing recoveries.

If you are testing positive, within 14 to 21 days, you will either be dead or recovered.

When you are tested, there will be triage. If you are suffering severe respiratory discomfort you'll be hospitalized. You will either be rolled out on a gurney, walk out, or perhaps taken home to recuperate further.

Otherwise you will be told to go home and quarantine isolated even from your family. Keep hydrated watch your temperature, and stay inside. Your family will likely also be tested.

It is unlikely anyone will do followup or officially report a recovery.

Yup, Jim is spot on and phrased it better than i could.

Basically, after testing, you are deemed positive or negative.

Three weeks ago, say Mar 25, sick people presenting in Italy got tested and they had, up until that date, 74,300 positive tests.

What I am saying is that out of that 74,000, they may have had 5-14 days of symptoms before being tested. So after a further 14 days, we are looking at someone who is 19-28 days post initial infection.

I am saying that after 19-28 days, you are either a recovery or a mortality statistic.

So underneath each graph, I list recoveries. For Italy, I have added 73,400 recoveries slowly increasing across the data.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

The Active Cases on my plot and the Daily Death Rate on their graph both peaked on March 28-30.

If you look at the World-o-metres graph, it will never peak, because of low levels of reporting recoveries. All of a sudden, Italy will report 100,000 recoveries on one day.

Wait and watch.

Something I've noticed is that raw death rates (total deaths/total cases) are almost universally creeping up. It doesn't matter if it is Germany, Italy, USA, or Australia.

I can think of two possibilities:

(1) It is becoming more lethal, which might indicate your recovery estimates are too low;

(2) asymptomatic or mild cases are not being tested, therefore those actually tested have more severe symptoms when tested. If this is true, you are missing "cases" and "recoveries". If someone does not know they are ill, can they really be said to have recovered?

I'm guessing that (2) is true. It is consistent with some preliminary testing for antigens.

I think it's just that there's a week or two delay in the peak of cases and the peak of deaths. I guess 2 might also be true.

[Badger]

Do we think the Chinese did this by releasing it by accident from a lab? My distaste for the Chinese government is exponentially growing.

There is literally no evidence to suggest that. So no.

This thing has been in bat's for thousands of years is the most likely explanation.

But under any normal circumtance, it has (had) no mechanism to go from bat to human.

It finally made the switch through an intermediary animal. (i.e. Pangolin)

It is way too early to suggest otherwise.

Unfortunately, thanks to conspiracy theorists on Facebook, we are about to get 2-3 months of this lab story presented to us. I am already seeing that people are posting things that support their hatred of China rather than presenting any scientific modelling or facts.

Too true. While the Chinese government were bastards in trying to suppress reporting of the outbreak, the evidence demonstrates the virus would've spread world-wide regardless, and most world leaders--particularly Trump given the extent of US intelligence sources and reports--had more than adaquate notice of what was coming.  Thus it's much easier for a large sector of American voters to grasp at conspiracy theory straws rather than hold their failed leadership accountable (especially when it's the leadership these types voted for in the first place).

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I know this is far less than many people are dealing with right now, but it is really tough to have your birthday during this- much less your rare Saturday birthday.

[Dr. Arch]

I know this is far less than many people are dealing with right now, but it is really tough to have your birthday during this- much less your rare Saturday birthday.

I can understand My birthday is always during finals season, and I could never celebrate it with anyone I know in the area.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Chill out about DeSantis opening the beaches. It’s down pouring rain here, and should some of our red avatars ever leave their basement hideaway they’d know that the beach in Florida is very, very, very long. I think the beach is way more safe than a grocery store or doctor’s waiting room.

What about us blues confined to basement hideaways?

[Badger]

I know this is far less than many people are dealing with right now, but it is really tough to have your birthday during this- much less your rare Saturday birthday.

I can understand My birthday is always during finals season, and I could never celebrate it with anyone I know in the area.

I dealt with the same thing a few weeks ago. My family tried hard, but we had to cancel all kinds of cool plans and replace it with pizza night. Having a birthday under quarentine definitely sucks.

Whatsmore, my kids were supposed to go visit my parents in Florida for a full week and a half then, giving my wife and I an EXTREMELY rare staycation time as a couple. That of course was cancelled. So yeah, my birthday week was a real letdown due to the outbreak.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/loisbeckett/status/1251571279859118081

[Koharu]

My husband had his first ever manic episode in January and is now diagnosed bipolar 2 and is trying to get on and adjusted to the correct medication during all of this. It sucks so bad because we're not sure how much all of this is adding to his depression and stress. He's used up all his FMLA but isn't really in working shape yet. This is tough to handle at any point, but it happening now makes it so much worse. I don't know how to hold it together.

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1251272475230580737

[Badger]

Chill out about DeSantis opening the beaches. It’s down pouring rain here, and should some of our red avatars ever leave their basement hideaway they’d know that the beach in Florida is very, very, very long. I think the beach is way more safe than a grocery store or doctor’s waiting room.

Stop being such a apologist for bad judgment. The photo above of Jacksonville Beach taken from a VERY wide angle (so no whining about "out of context", etc.) shows a very busy beach that is clearly begging for a bio bomb of an outbreak.

The beaches are also at opposite ends of the spectrum of necessity from the grocery or a doctor. That really should be apparent.

This is a decision that clearly puts business (and feeding the political base) first, and public health last.

[Grassroots]

https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1251272475230580737

I'm plenty disappointed with Trump's performance with the crisis, but the fact that NowThis is using "Trump" instead of "government" is all you need to know.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The worst part about the lack of testing is that it is possible that the strategy we are currently deploying is the opposite of what we should be doing, and we might never know it.

Because we don’t have widespread population test, we have neither a good idea of the contagiousness of the virus nor it’s lethality.  And it is likely that these two factors are highly negatively correlated with each other.

If it turns out the virus is both much more contagious and much less lethal than our original estimates (as the little bit of recent evidence tends to point to), we should not be doing general lockdowns.  We should be aiming for herd immunity in a controlled way that limits restrictions to vulnerable populations and places where the health care system, while encouraging the spread of the virus among the young and healthy.  

This is further suggested by the fact that while our models seem to be doing a decent job projecting the upward trajectory of case and death rates, they are failing with respect to two other factors.  First, they dramatically overestimated the need for hospital capacity at peak levels.  And second, they dramatically overestimated the rate of decline once the peak is reached.   These failures indicate that the general lockdowns are both less necessary and less effective than initially anticipated.