Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[HillGoose]

Ukraine should be given 2 options

a) Areas under Russia's control are accepted as part of Russia AND Russia accepts Ukraine will enter NATO with condition that no NATO troops can enter Ukraine unless Russia invades (again) but such a future invasion would trigger an act of war from NATO.

OR

b) Areas under Russia's control re-join Ukraine as autonomous regions as part of a Ukraine confederation. The New Ukraine confederation has Constitutional changes to ensure that it is neutral and cannot enter any alliances.  Russia + NATO guarantees Ukraine confederation borders with a rule that ANY foreign troops on Ukraine will mean an act of war EVEN if Ukraine asked for it.

I do not think Russia will accept either but I will insist Russia accept one of the two as part of the compromise peace.

The idea is Russia can have territory concessions but not get Ukraine neutrality or Russia can get Ukrain neutrality but then cannot get any territories.

What about Crimea? You approach has some logic, but Russia getting to keep any additional territory is a non starter. The only deal that will fly is giving Russia Crimea in the end in exchange for Ukraine having defense guarantees. One other option is a a land swap of some sort where Russia gives up the Donbas for a land bridge to Crimea, but I doubt Ukraine will go for that except under duress.

Crimea is gone.  Even USA privately seems to indicate that any peace deal would mean Russia keeps Ukraine.  One face-saving possibility for Ukraine would be some sort of free trade setup between Ukraine and a Russia controlled Crimea.

lmao NATO's secret rods from god could change that real quick

[HillGoose]

Zelensky just flat out lied to his supposed allies in the West and it's audience about the missile saying it was Russian, knowing there would be huge consequences.

It's still possible to be pro-Ukraine, doesn't mean you have to be a Zelensky cuck.

it was russain tho, bcuz it never would have been fired if the russkies hadnt invaded

[HillGoose]

Zelensky just flat out lied to his supposed allies in the West and it's audience about the missile saying it was Russian, knowing there would be huge consequences.

It's still possible to be pro-Ukraine, doesn't mean you have to be a Zelensky cuck.

it was russain tho, bcuz it never would have been fired if the russkies hadnt invaded

Doesn't matter. Should have just clarified it was an accident and it would have spared a ton of reckless tension. Why cuck yourself to a guy who's lying to you, and your confidence.

who cares lol

every1 knows who the Axis of Evil regime is in this war and if they hadn't attacked Ukraine then missiles never would have even gone in the direction of Poland or anywhere else !

[HillGoose]

"To the German Commander:

NUTS!

The American Commander"

- General Anthony McAuliffe, in response to a German request to surrender, 22 December 1944

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1604286515563175936?s=20&t=pTfKLNm...

oh man guys the weatherman has turned against the west time for everyone to back down this is getting serious

[HillGoose]

thats just commie propaganda

[HillGoose]

how long until the ppl of the free world decide its time for a coalition of the willing!

[HillGoose]

ohhhh yeahhhhhh leopards !!

[HillGoose]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1619061737550127105

common russki L

[HillGoose]

RAND report "Avoiding a Long War"

https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html

Mostly makes the argument that Russia has already been damaged by the war and that the marginal damage to Russia is reaching diminishing returns while the marginal cost to USA and Ukraine could be increasing if the war continues.  Mostly proposes the USA works toward winding the war down so the USA can focus on "other threats" (read: PRC.)

While the war continues, Russian forces will remain preoccupied with Ukraine and thus not have the bandwidth to menace others. A longer war would further degrade the Russian military and weaken the Russian economy. But the war has already been so devastating to Russian power that further incremental weakening is arguably no longer as significant a benefit for U.S. interests as in the earlier phases of the conflict.

Continued conflict also leaves open the possibility that Russia will reverse Ukrainian battlefield gains made in fall 2022. Moscow’s mobilization might stabilize the lines as of December 2022 and allow Russia to launch offensives in 2023.

The costs for the United States and the European Union of keeping the Ukrainian state economically solvent will multiply over time as conflict inhibits investment and production; Ukrainian refugees remain unable to return; and, as a result, tax revenue and economic activity drop dramatically lower than before the war. Russia’s campaign of destruction of Ukrainian critical infrastructure will create major long-term challenges for sustaining the war effort and for economic recovery and has also substantially increased Kyiv’s projections for the economic support it will need from the United States and its allies.2

thats just commie propaganda

[HillGoose]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/19/ukraine-war-over-unless-eu-boosts-military-support-says-top-diplomat

"Ukraine war ‘over’ unless EU boosts military support, says top diplomat"

They're essentially admitting that Kremlin is pumping out weapons and ammunition, and Ukraine will not be able to compete unless EU countries can combine forces to match Russia's Wartime Production.  Basically, the point I and others have made countless times.  But I suppose the EU Members are merely brainwashed Putin Puppets that are spreading Russian propaganda.  

Also, US Officials believe China may start providing lethal weapons to Russia, in addition to non-lethal military supplies that the US believes are already supplying.  
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-considering-providing-lethal-support-aid-russia-invasion-ukraine-antony-blinken-says/

Then it sounds like it's time for NATO to ramp up production to wartime levels as well, bcuz if the russkis win they will not stop at Ukraine. This is the chance to stop them now!

[HillGoose]

The world would be better place if the Russian state was wiped off the face of the Earth. Literally an army of rabid dogs.

- Adolf Hitler, 1941

ok Tokyo Rose

[HillGoose]

From Daily Mail

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11827765/Are-sanctions-REALLY-wrecking-life-Russia-British-supermarkets-ration-eggs-vegetables.html

"Are sanctions REALLY wrecking life in Russia? As British supermarkets ration eggs and vegetables - thanks in part to Putin's war in Ukraine - shelves in a provincial Russian city are groaning under piles of fresh food, writes SUE REID"

commie propaganda

[HillGoose]

But did that not already happen with the 2003 Iraq War? The main lesson of the Iraq War was that Saddam Hussein's main mistake was that he did NOT manage to get chemical and nuclear weapons.  So any lesson war can teach was already taught back in 2003.

That contributed a good amount too, but at the very least the invasion was not an attempt to outright gain land and was done for political change. Plus it still was done under the pretense of preventing WOMD proliferation, so it sent a mixed message. This was done purely to gain one as can be seen with the annexations, showing not even showing complete compliance with not building WOMDs or nukes/inspections will stop countries from invading you.

I would argue 2003 is worse.   The lesson from the Russia-Ukraine war is "if you have a boundary dispute with a Great Power then you are not safe" but the lesson from Iraq War is "if you have a political system that a Great Power (potentially thousands of miles away) does not like you are not safe."  It seems the risk of the Iraq War is greater since you can count the number of states you have a border with while who knows which Great Power thousands of miles might like your system or your head of state.  Also, the result of the current war can be resolved with the adjustment of boundaries but potentially leaving the current regime intact.  The 2003 Iraq War is a clear example of a maximalist regime change.  So all in all the lessons of 2003 are much more frightening than the Russia-Ukraine war.

sounds like red propaganda

[HillGoose]

What’s the most realistic (as in likelihood of happening) path to this conflict ending with minimal future bloodshed?

NATO gets involved and destroys all russian military capabilities within minutes using PGS systems

[HillGoose]

if these COMMIES like tucker carlson and ppl on twitter who havent touched grass in years probably LOVE KGB PUTIN and HATE AMERICA so much they should MOVE TO RUSSIA and see how they like it there !

we do not need ppl spreading russki and red chinese disinfo in the FREE WORLD ! they can go live in the axis of evil where they clearly want to be !

[HillGoose]

Incorrect. I am saying that the moral standards applied by Western states are hypocritical and one-sided in order to benefit white-majority nations.

bro race doesnt exist it was made up by the man to divide the sheeple

dont fall for the russki and red chinese soviet socialist propaganda !

[HillGoose]

yessss i love to hear that american tanks will soon be blowing the russki army away

[HillGoose]

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2023/04/23/russias-economy-can-withstand-a-long-war-but-not-a-more-intense-one

"Russia’s economy can withstand a long war, but not a more intense one"

Economist admits that Russia's economy can sustain a long war but now argues that for Russia to win the rise in intensity of the conflict cannot be sustained.  That is very possible but if I had to guess Russia's plans are to win a long low intensity attrition war.

So the goal for the West could be to continue to increase the intensity still further and for as long as possible.

Correct, at least if you go with Economist's analysis.  Russia's plan seems to be drag the war out in a  low intensity conflict and wait for collective West internal politics to reduce their level of support for Ukraine.  The collective West strategy, if that is the case, has to be to up the ante as soon as possible.

hell ya AC-130s blowing away russkis when ?

[HillGoose]

Putin is bombing babies and yet over here in the USA all our cowardly politicians refuse to give Ukraine what they need to take the fight to the russkis.


it is shameful !

[HillGoose]

If I was the Russians, I would make it seem like there would be a divide among the different ranks, to fool the Ukrainians.

Like Sun Tzu said: Appear weak when you're strong.

I wonder how Sun Tzu would react to a 1000lb JDAM hitting his house

[HillGoose]

the russkis are getting their asses handed to them

maybe they should decide to turn north and direct their war capacity towards those in the Kremlin that sent them on this hopeless war instead !

[HillGoose]

NATO needs to stop pussy footing around and send the black sea fleet to Davy Jones locker, i'd say this is at least as destructive as a low-yield nuclear weapon

[HillGoose]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1676310984309239811

god if the russki terrorists cause a disaster at the plant NATO has to respond, theres no other option, hopefully response would be strong, send the black sea fleet to davy jones locker, maybe pacific and arctic fleets too, no-fly zone over Ukraine, no more pussy "strong condemnations"

[HillGoose]

https://news.yahoo.com/law-moves-ukrainian-christmas-jan-114800447.html

"New law moves Ukrainian Christmas from Jan 7 to Dec 25, other holidays changed too"

I think this is not a smart move.  It hands Putin more ammo in his narrative: "This is a war for Russian civilization.  If Russia loses it is the end of Russian civilization"

Imagine believing that the survival of "Russian civilization" hinges on Ukrainians not celebrating Christmas in December. Gives the term "War on Christmas" a whole new meaning too.

There was a reason why Stalin choose to make the movie "Alexander Nevsky" in 1938 and its depiction of Battle on the Ice in 1242 as a way to appropriate Russian nationalism in the service of his regime.  1242 was not just a German invasion but it was a Catholic invasion.  Ukraine going to the other side of the 1054 Schim will also bring up memories of the Polish-Catholic invasion of the early 1600s as well as the Teutonic Order invasion of 1242.

ya maybe among the vast population of 1000 year olds i guess

[HillGoose]

looks like 60% of republicans are COMMUNISTS then