Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just discovered that this show exists.
And its creator is hugely against the war.
Interesting.

[HillGoose]

RAND report "Avoiding a Long War"

https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html

Mostly makes the argument that Russia has already been damaged by the war and that the marginal damage to Russia is reaching diminishing returns while the marginal cost to USA and Ukraine could be increasing if the war continues.  Mostly proposes the USA works toward winding the war down so the USA can focus on "other threats" (read: PRC.)

While the war continues, Russian forces will remain preoccupied with Ukraine and thus not have the bandwidth to menace others. A longer war would further degrade the Russian military and weaken the Russian economy. But the war has already been so devastating to Russian power that further incremental weakening is arguably no longer as significant a benefit for U.S. interests as in the earlier phases of the conflict.

Continued conflict also leaves open the possibility that Russia will reverse Ukrainian battlefield gains made in fall 2022. Moscow’s mobilization might stabilize the lines as of December 2022 and allow Russia to launch offensives in 2023.

The costs for the United States and the European Union of keeping the Ukrainian state economically solvent will multiply over time as conflict inhibits investment and production; Ukrainian refugees remain unable to return; and, as a result, tax revenue and economic activity drop dramatically lower than before the war. Russia’s campaign of destruction of Ukrainian critical infrastructure will create major long-term challenges for sustaining the war effort and for economic recovery and has also substantially increased Kyiv’s projections for the economic support it will need from the United States and its allies.2

thats just commie propaganda

[Antonio the Sixth]

Solovyov with hair:



It seems the Russians failed to make life so attractive that Ukrainians and other peoples of former Soviet Republics "want to make peace with us and come to us".

"Are we the baddies?" moment

[Hollywood]

The Ukrainians have done an incredible job holding the Russians back in Vuhledar and Krasnaya Hora, as well as slowing RAF from cutting off the T0504 from SW Bakhmut.  However, multiple sources have confirmed that Russia made advances in Blahodatne, and have launched an attack to cut off the M-03 Junction.

https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1619459645332140034?s=20&t=SLdRXGSDd...

Check out the Trench Line Ukraine built to stop Russia from rolling west of Soledar.
https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1619269729432244224?cxt=HHwWgMDQpavP5vgsA...

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/phl43/status/1619455745677991936

[Frodo]

We are staring at the prospect of a post-Putin Russia becoming a failed state upon its total defeat in Ukraine, with various warlords competing for supremacy.  Already we are starting to see hints of what's to come:

As Russia weakens, whoever has soldiers and guns will survive

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1619623432597172225
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1619631608923029504

[jaichind]

https://nos.nl/artikel/2461459-miljoenen-chips-nederlandse-fabrikanten-belanden-in-rusland-ondanks-sancties

It seems large amounts of Netherlands microchips are ending up in Russia for military use through third parties.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://nos.nl/artikel/2461459-miljoenen-chips-nederlandse-fabrikanten-belanden-in-rusland-ondanks-sancties

It seems large amounts of Netherlands microchips are ending up in Russia for military use through third parties.

There are more holes in Western semiconductor sanctions than there are in a piece of Swiss cheese.

[jaichind]

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The plot thickens...

[jaichind]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/some-western-backers-of-ukraine-worry-that-time-might-be-on-russias-side-11674969063

"Some Western Backers of Ukraine Worry That Time Might Be on Russia’s Side"

Seems to match the tune the RAND is singing.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1619637210621566981?cxt=HHwWioDTwcfdjfosA...

3/ The proposed law requires anyone resident in Russia to pre-book the date and time for crossing the state border in a vehicle, supposedly to improve the "throughput of international automobile checkpoints."

4/ The law's author claims that it only applies to freight transport and is intended to tackle long queues on the border. However, its text does not confine the requirement to trucks, which has prompted suspicions that it's meant to be a de facto exit visa.

5/ The Russian journalist Sergei Aslanyan calls it "a noose around everyone's neck under the guise of care. There is no care, it is accounting and control." He suggests that it will be used to block people fleeing Russia overland, as hundreds of thousands did in 2022.

6/ "The [text of the law] says that the electronic queue does not limit you in any way, except when all the seats are taken. An electronic portal that is not controlled by you will always be able to show that there is no departure for the next 5 weeks."

7/ Efforts are also underway in several Russian universities to collect military registration data on students, postgraduates and teachers. Russian organisations, including universities, are required to have a 'mobilisation department' to gather and manage such data.

8/ The universities involved include the St. Petersburg University of Mechanics and Optics, the Omsk State University, and Vladimir State University. Graduate students are in theory entitled to a Certificate of Deferment of Conscription.

9/ However, many of them will finish their studies this year, and some will be expelled without completing the winter term. This will deprive them of grounds for exemption and make them prime candidates for mobilisation.

[Woody]

Bakhmut will fall around mid-February (IMO).

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1619666237860229121?cxt=HHwWgsDRpZX3mvosAAA...

[Hindsight was 2020]

To help put two certain posters “OMG Russia is winning because muh Bakmut” into perspective
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1619685450624667648

[dead0man]

Bakhmut will fall around mid-February (IMO).

and if you are right it will only have taken them 6 months and 40,000 dead to do it and losing huge swaths of land elsewhere.  What a great victory for the Motherland!  How many more of these "victories" can the Russians pull off?  I hope a lot.

[Hollywood]

To help put two certain posters “OMG Russia is winning because muh Bakmut” into perspective
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1619685450624667648

It doesn't put anything into perspective, because the ISW is not providing unbiased analysis that compares genuine data of losses sustained by both sides.   According to a statement by Mark Milley, both Ukraine and Russia sustained about 100,000 casualties in the middle of November, 2022.  The Russians had conscripted an additional 300,000 troops during this time, in addition to 40,000 poorly-trained convicts that were promptly utilized to grind down Ukrainian battalions that were comprised well-trained Troops and Veterans.  According to the Western Organizations, more than 90% of the casualties sustained by Wagner are made-up of convicts, so is that a 'victory in losses' for Ukraine?

That depends on Ukraine losses.  The Russian estimate is around 25,000 casualities in the Soledar Direction.  That seems reasonable to me given the videos/photographs, and reports about certain brigades being 50-75% depleted.  Does that troop loss outweigh the tens of thousands of Russian convicts? 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bakhmut will fall around mid-February (IMO).

and if you are right it will only have taken them 6 months and 40,000 dead to do it and losing huge swaths of land elsewhere.  What a great victory for the Motherland!  How many more of these "victories" can the Russians pull off?  I hope a lot.

Ne ego si iterum eodem modo vicero, sine ullo milite Epirum revertar.

[Hindsight was 2020]

To help put two certain posters “OMG Russia is winning because muh Bakmut” into perspective
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1619685450624667648

It doesn't put anything into perspective, because the ISW is not providing unbiased analysis that compares genuine data of losses sustained by both sides.   According to a statement by Mark Milley, both Ukraine and Russia sustained about 100,000 casualties in the middle of November, 2022.  The Russians had conscripted an additional 300,000 troops during this time, in addition to 40,000 poorly-trained convicts that were promptly utilized to grind down Ukrainian battalions that were comprised well-trained Troops and Veterans.  According to the Western Organizations, more than 90% of the casualties sustained by Wagner are made-up of convicts, so is that a 'victory in losses' for Ukraine?

That depends on Ukraine losses.  The Russian estimate is around 25,000 casualities in the Soledar Direction.  That seems reasonable to me given the videos/photographs, and reports about certain brigades being 50-75% depleted.  Does that troop loss outweigh the tens of thousands of Russian convicts? 

First off ISW is just providing the map in the tweet so unless you’re saying the map is wrong and that Russia secretly holding more territory than anyone else including them are reporting then the accusations of bias make no sense in the context. Second your entire argument rests on the idea that Russian human wave attacks are somehow going to be effective in the long run and that Ukraine can’t get enough people into their army to replenish losses and the facts on the ground heavily dispute both notions

[Hollywood]

To help put two certain posters “OMG Russia is winning because muh Bakmut” into perspective
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1619685450624667648

It doesn't put anything into perspective, because the ISW is not providing unbiased analysis that compares genuine data of losses sustained by both sides.   According to a statement by Mark Milley, both Ukraine and Russia sustained about 100,000 casualties in the middle of November, 2022.  The Russians had conscripted an additional 300,000 troops during this time, in addition to 40,000 poorly-trained convicts that were promptly utilized to grind down Ukrainian battalions that were comprised well-trained Troops and Veterans.  According to the Western Organizations, more than 90% of the casualties sustained by Wagner are made-up of convicts, so is that a 'victory in losses' for Ukraine?

That depends on Ukraine losses.  The Russian estimate is around 25,000 casualities in the Soledar Direction.  That seems reasonable to me given the videos/photographs, and reports about certain brigades being 50-75% depleted.  Does that troop loss outweigh the tens of thousands of Russian convicts? 

First off ISW is just providing the map in the tweet so unless you’re saying the map is wrong and that Russia secretly holding more territory than anyone else including them are reporting then the accusations of bias make no sense in the context. Second your entire argument rests on the idea that Russian human wave attacks are somehow going to be effective in the long run and that Ukraine can’t get enough people into their army to replenish losses and the facts on the ground heavily dispute both notions

I don't care about the map.  I'm referring to the comment made by ISW advisor in his tweet.  He refers to 'losses' as a more pertinent factor than 'ground changing hands'.  My statements regarding the ISW bias was just a triggered response to some of the nonsense that they've published in the past, so you're correct that my accusations "make no sense" in this context. I'm only human. 

In regards to your next point, I'm not arguing that "Russian human wave attacks are... going to be effective in the long-run".  Soledar is the first battle in which the Russians truly utilized human wave attacks that look just like, if not worse then, the Ukrainians tactics utilized during the Cherson Offensive.  Eventually, they Russians are going to run out of prisoners if the casualties are accurate, but I imagine the Ukraine Ministry of Defense is over-exaggerating that number for morale. 

In addition, I don't think the Ukrainians can replenish their well-trained soldiers, because I've seen images of older recruits, and a couple of videos where they're dragging geriatrics off the street for service. 

LOL Facts on the Ground?  The first casualty of war is the truth. 

[Woody]

Bakhmut will fall around mid-February (IMO).

and if you are right it will only have taken them 6 months and 40,000 dead to do it and losing huge swaths of land elsewhere.  What a great victory for the Motherland!  How many more of these "victories" can the Russians pull off?  I hope a lot.

Don't know where you got that number from. Either way, Bakmut has been an attritional difficulty for Ukraine, that's an open secret (Several rotations/brigades from the south to Bakhmut) remember that most of the fighting is not happening in the city itself, it's getting shelled from three sides. Even American/NATO officials in Kyiv "advised" the leadership to change it's priorities from Bakhmut/leaked it's frustrations to the media earlier this year & late 2022 about Ukraine wasting it's offensive potential in Zaporizhzhie for political reasons - holding Bakhmut.

Russians have also not used it's conventional military here, leaving that to Wagner. Most of it's conscripts are held back so far in reserve or on defense (Svatovo-Kremina)

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/24/politics/ukraine-shift-tactics-bakhmut/index.html

[Hollywood]

The idiot US Officials just took responsibility, and threw Israel under the bus, for the drone attack in Iran.  Does everyone now understand why Israel doesn't want to send weapons to Ukraine?  The US isn't trustworthy.  They can't keep their mouthes shut.  

https://twitter.com/GeneralChowShow/status/1619757590656983040

[Hindsight was 2020]

To help put two certain posters “OMG Russia is winning because muh Bakmut” into perspective
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1619685450624667648

It doesn't put anything into perspective, because the ISW is not providing unbiased analysis that compares genuine data of losses sustained by both sides.   According to a statement by Mark Milley, both Ukraine and Russia sustained about 100,000 casualties in the middle of November, 2022.  The Russians had conscripted an additional 300,000 troops during this time, in addition to 40,000 poorly-trained convicts that were promptly utilized to grind down Ukrainian battalions that were comprised well-trained Troops and Veterans.  According to the Western Organizations, more than 90% of the casualties sustained by Wagner are made-up of convicts, so is that a 'victory in losses' for Ukraine?

That depends on Ukraine losses.  The Russian estimate is around 25,000 casualities in the Soledar Direction.  That seems reasonable to me given the videos/photographs, and reports about certain brigades being 50-75% depleted.  Does that troop loss outweigh the tens of thousands of Russian convicts?  

First off ISW is just providing the map in the tweet so unless you’re saying the map is wrong and that Russia secretly holding more territory than anyone else including them are reporting then the accusations of bias make no sense in the context. Second your entire argument rests on the idea that Russian human wave attacks are somehow going to be effective in the long run and that Ukraine can’t get enough people into their army to replenish losses and the facts on the ground heavily dispute both notions

I don't care about the map.  I'm referring to the comment made by ISW advisor in his tweet.  He refers to 'losses' as a more pertinent factor than 'ground changing hands'.  My statements regarding the ISW bias was just a triggered response to some of the nonsense that they've published in the past, so you're correct that my accusations "make no sense" in this context. I'm only human.  

In regards to your next point, I'm not arguing that "Russian human wave attacks are... going to be effective in the long-run".  Soledar is the first battle in which the Russians truly utilized human wave attacks that look just like, if not worse then, the Ukrainians tactics utilized during the Cherson Offensive.  Eventually, they Russians are going to run out of prisoners if the casualties are accurate, but I imagine the Ukraine Ministry of Defense is over-exaggerating that number for morale.  

In addition, I don't think the Ukrainians can replenish their well-trained soldiers, because I've seen images of older recruits, and a couple of videos where they're dragging geriatrics off the street for service.  

LOL Facts on the Ground?  The first casualty of war is the truth.  

If you’re going to argue that Ukraine can’t replace it’s loses based off of images you see then it’s pretty hypocritical to refer to Russia as a “solid army” when we have a lot of images of these conscripts Russia is bringing in are poorly equipped, cloathed, trained, and demoralized to the point they wouldn’t be effective

[jaichind]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jan/28/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskiy-says-frontline-fighting-in-east-extremely-acute-live

"Ukraine struggling to hold Bakhmut, military sources say"

The risk of Bakhmut being encircled was said to be growing, with Ukraine’s army facing shortages of artillery that could hold back the advancing Russian forces.

[Antonio the Sixth]

can we stop arguing with obvious trolls please