2023 NCAA conference realignment (12/20: the PAC-2 join the WCC)

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The two most obvious pickups that belong at the P5 level - long overdue for SMU's return.

All we can say is poor Memphis - they have no business falling behind, but who would ever take them but the Big XII?

That should bring all reasonable expansion candidates to the P5 level aside from Memphis. 8 Mountain West schools will continue to plead, and maybe someone will break through next decade; Tulane, USF, Temple and Tulsa will whine about how they belong despite adding no value. But any other addition would be a desperation move.

It would be better for the conferences to all work together on alignment, rather than doing it piecemeal here and there.

For example, a year ago, the remaining G5s could have picked CUSA apart and just left a G4, but instead they gave CUSA the chance to rebuild with FCS and Independent teams. Similarly, the Big 12 and Big 10 (and maybe SEC?) could pick apart the Pac-12 and get it down to a P4, but they won't. So instead, we'll just more G5 teams joining P5 leagues, and in a few years, more Pac-12 teams are going to leave.

Why is this a bad thing? Aren't you the one all for inclusivity of all cities and willing participants?

I'm not sure it's a good thing for the G5 conferences either. a) they lose voting power by having one less among their peer group; and b) they lose funds by having to split payouts among more teams, especially with respect to the NCAA Tournament allotments. [You could argue higher portion of CFP money dealt out to make up for it, but I doubt collaboration/paying them off would close the gap enough or be worth it. It was hard enough to get buy-in on the new playoff size from just the power conferences and bowls.]

The MAC had every chance to put the nail in the coffin, but they refused by rejecting Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky - two pretty respectable programs! (And UL would not give up the chance to play in a superior conference to LT.)

Sam Houston's facilities are a bit of a joke, but they are a quality program that isn't too far from FBS. Kennesaw and Jacksonville State are more than on par with FBS, especially the latter, and it's absurd not to allow the Gamecocks to compete based on where their historical placement when they have the means to do so.

Also, the ASUN move-up to form a G6 conference is already fully in motion with big news at the end of the year. (Which for the record, I am opposed to since there are only at best 2-4 halfway decent programs among the 10 -  nevertheless, there are 20-40 other FCS programs that would be worthwhile additions to the Bowl subdivision if they can latch on).

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Will California Baptist join the WCC, since it's a Christian school? The WCC also has a better television contract with no home broadcast rights on ESPN+.

No, it doesn't align with the values or athletics of the WCC. Gonzaga would prefer fewer conference games and could threaten to leave with expansion.

Seattle University is Catholic, urban and an historical program. This would be the only logical fit if they can better meet WCC standards of play. Currently they are an inadequate replacement for BYU - closer in quality to USD and Santa Clara than San Francisco and LMU. Too much downside risk. Grand Canyon is also a minor candidate if expansion is needed due to their respectable facilities but is also a longshot

California Baptist has a better shot begging the Big West despite not being a public school. They are teetering on an island, and the Big West has the travel geography that a program of CBU's standing can better manage. But I really doubt the Big West wants them either.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Seattle University is Catholic, urban and an historical program. This would be the only logical fit if they can better meet WCC standards of play. Currently they are an inadequate replacement for BYU - closer in quality to USD and Santa Clara than San Francisco and LMU. Too much downside risk. Grand Canyon is also a minor candidate if expansion is needed due to their respectable facilities but is also a longshot

I don't understand your categories of "San Diego and Santa Clara" and "San Francisco and Loyola Marymount", since San Diego was the worst team of that group this year and Santa Clara was the best. Is this based on something other than men's basketball performance?

No, I am clearly wrong. Santa Clara, LMU and San Diego belong in the "good team 20 percent of the time" category with San Diego having the highest variance in outcomes in a very bad way. I guess I want to think of Loyola Marymount as a sleeper program with the resources/history/location that can put them on par with San Francisco, but they are clearly not there yet.

Two good seasons under Herb Sendek does not elevate Santa Clara clearly above as a program after extended mediocrity, but maybe you know better about their ability to retain him.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

In more urgent news, does anyone understand what Cal/Stanford plan to do if the only six valuable schools all leave the conference, now that they appear to be off the Big Ten wishlist?

It was reported yesterday that Boise State, Fresno State and UNLV are not on the Pac-12 expansion list solely because of academics (and instead Colorado State somehow is). It's hard to see this exclusionary behavior being driven by anyone else, and it's almost certain to accelerate their own demise.

Oregon State and Washington State would go MW if they had to, but it's clear Cal/Stanford will not relegate themselves to that future. Football independence? But they have to put other sports somewhere. And I'm not sure which schools they would align themselves with west of the Mississippi. Rice and UC Davis? Surely this arrangement would not be of interest to SMU any longer.

Seems complicated by them participating in nearly every sport possible.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Wouldn't the Mountain West or Conference USA be better for Cal if it leaves a power conference? The Big West rarely has games on cable networks.

This is my question ultimately. They've picked not associating with Boise State as their hill to die on. Well, an invitation to the Pac-12 to save it, or a lifeboat from the MW would be the only options for relevancy.

Unless the last four schools stick together, and SMU and San Diego State still think there is any remaining prestige with them over Boise and Fresno.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Also, these schedule releases and buzzings give me the very nauseating feeling that this is all moving towards a promotion/relegation class within conference. The greed means they need the best of the best television inventory every week. This isn't happening for USC to alternate between Indiana, Northwestern and Illinois every three years, though they will try to make it work at first.

16 teams is kind of workable. I dreamed up 18 team scenarios myself with geographically intensive permanent division games only. But once, this goes to 22/24 with ACC poaching, these mini-leagues are going to be a two-class system without a care for history. Just an in-level round-robin for the best teams of the previous year.

RIP guaranteed mid-level rivalry games (e.g., Wisconsin-Minnesota) unless you save an OOC spot. RIP payouts for G5 and FCS schools that fund your whole season. RIP the tremendous one year turnarounds that come with amateur players growing and believing. RIP playing for a school you truly love because they are already eliminated for championship consideration the previous season.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

West Virginia is a much better fit for the Big 12 than the ACC.

I don't see these moves as destroying the PAC just yet. All the Big 12 has done I'd poach two of the three weakest football programs. San Diego State and SMU arguably are an upgrade. They may not be above the average PAC squad in upping the AAV, but you still need 10 to be considered a serious conference, so they won't bring down the value compared to who they are replacing.

Utah is not eager to leave. If the Big 12 really wanted to deal a death blow, it has to go through Oregon first. That is the only way to make Utah sweat and force them to fold.

Also, the longer this goes, the better it is for Oregon State. They struggled a lot last decade, but if they can prove they are back, they could survive this - which I don't think is possible for Washington State under any circumstances.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The Big Ten has begun preliminary discussions to add Oregon, Washington, Cal and Stanford.

The Big Ten has begun exploratory discussions about expanding membership to 18 or even 20 teams, industry sources have told Yahoo Sports. The schools being considered are Oregon and Washington if the league adds two schools, and Cal and Stanford if it wants to move to 20. All four institutions are currently members of the Pac-12.

The discussions are in the very early stages, sources caution. No decision, including on whether to expand or stay put at 16 teams, has been made or is considered imminent.

Congrats to Cal if true, the biggest winner in all of realignment.

It's weird how all these huge things are happening, while the ACC is just sitting there doing nothing.

I think if they're going to do anything, it'll be poaching Oregon and Washington. They're the best brands left in the Pac-9 (I'm still not used to that).

While you're at it, you might as well add Cal and Stanford because they're excellent academically (something the ACC cares too much about) which would create a western wing of the conference.

That would place the ACC solidly as the 3rd best conference in the nation, increasing the conference's value significantly.

Cal and Stanford would detract from its already distant fourth place value. And I'm not sure I'm willing to tune in for Oregon vs. Virginia personally (or Duke, or Syracuse, or most of the conference facing a randomly superior west coast opponent) - certainly not nearly as much as any game in the current configuration.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I just want to say that I feel absolutely horrible for the fans of Oregon State and Washington State. It's not right what's happening to them.

Both Oregon State and Washington State fit in nicely in the Mountain West or American, so it's not like they don't have somewhere to go if the PAC-12 really does collapse.

Well yeah they'll go to the Mountain West, but it really sucks that they have been kicked out of the "power conferences" through no fault of their own.

Even if they hold on to the Pac name and invite the better MWC/AAC teams to join, that's still not going to be considered a power conference.

I'm mostly with you for once, but Wazzu is a better fit in the Mountain West with 24k students in a micropolitan area and limited legacy. I don't buy that these mythical "power" conference that we pine for, with a history of, like, 25 years are anything special that all constituents deserve a seat by obscure historical association. I don't feel any less bad than VMI getting stuck in the Southern Conference which remains a reasonable fit to this day, whereas all other members became national powers. I wish for the rivalries, but in lieu of that, entities that fail to grow must be left behind.

Teams only should play teams that they have special or logical ties to. Washington State's chances of national success should be no higher than San Diego State or Boise State (and truly the best peers may even be Utah State and Colorado State).


I'm holding out hope that it will just be Arizona for now and the Pac-8 makes the necessary invites to last a couple more years.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Oregon in the Big Ten is sickening. And I though Nebraska was bad.

At least Cal did not get in, even if they are a better fit. They are going to have to really have a hard look at their future as an athletic program and if they want to be a part of a conference. Will be interesting how the four rejects respond.

At 18+ teams, are we going to an A-League/B-League by 2030 so that we don't have to endure through Washington-Indiana 11AM kickoffs [when Washington is good enough to be in the A-League]?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The Pac-12 has half of its 2021 $36 million in NCAA Tournament units to distribution and most of its 10-12 million to distribute for each of the last two years.

Further, there is an annual $20 million CFP payment per G5 conference. Why split this 18 ways when you can split it 9-10? (And keeping a Pac conference may be able to steal a bowl tie-in worth more than $20 million although perhaps less than the full $80 million share that the real powers get.)

I do not believe the Pac is ready to die. Surely they can at least get a tv deal matching the AAC's $7 million per school annually and perhaps 2.5x that. Why settle for so little when your schools are certainly worth more than Charlotte?

The Pac's path forward will be to secure SMU and Tulane for 2024 (Rice may not be up to par for a tv contract) - unless NorCal can swallow their pride and accept Memphis too. Then in one year they can grab San Diego State and either Colorado State and Utah State - or, if NorCal allows it for the sake of tv money, UNLV and Boise State.

The hardest consideration will be if the exit fee is worth it for those Mountain West schools. It would likely be worth it in the long-run (especially for San Diego State), unless Cal and Stanford suddenly get a life raft and they get stuck with the same old conference - but it will rely on a television partner's help in setting up a much better deal before they agree to it.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I've seen speculation that the average annual value for my proposed contract is just below $11 million (Fresno is being substituted for Utah State - same US News rank, equivalent football standing - but I can't see another local school acknowledged as a peer. Utah State's outdated and undersized football stadium must suffice. But few seem to agree at this stage.) I suppose my $17 million estimate was quite hopeful, and I guess I knew it.

I think it needs to be at least $13-14 million to entice the MW's top teams. Exit fee covered by NCAA tournament payouts and a TV deal that reaps major dividends once the current one is set to expire. $11 million could pay off, but I don't know how you trust snakes like Stanford and Cal to sit still and not leave you stranded in the same boat they are in right now, aside from the fact that they provide no value to anybody unless they are packaged with Notre Dame. Even then they are likely dilutive.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Might Notre Dame football join the ACC? Might the school just go to another conference altogether?

Why would they?  It would be difficult to top all the advantages they have by being independent.

What if the media rights deal ends up being better? Is there really going to be a mass exodus from the ACC?

Notre Dame's expected payout as a football independent is just about double that of the ACC payout for football media rights. If they can't get that, they will join the Big Ten.

I used to think the ACC could only be broken by mass exodus, but some teams seem content on keep it together without the three or four biggest names? Seems ridiculous. They'd easily fall behind the Big Ten and effectively lose any cohesive identity when other conferences offer a better identity. Will they be that petty over the grant of rights instead of dissolving and making it better for everyone?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/status/1697630003255455898?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

The MW TV deal pays $3 million annually. Nothing makes sense to me anymore. If that is their best option, why not take the Cal/Stanford deal with the ACC and get $12 million a year, or heck, even $6 million for reduced brand value? All I heard was that they can't afford to go forego revenue like the other schools, but now they have no choice. The AAC would have at best matched that annual payout and now that is not even on the table.

The sole option is to expand the P-2 and even then, they would have troublesome, if not impossible, buyouts to bear to add the best AAC squads and likely no TV deal. They seem completely screwed into making nothing and playing nobody.

The AAC is probably not interested in adding them since they pose no serious poaching risk now. USF won't join this Pac-X. Maybe the five westernmost schools have some interest - UTSA, Tulsa, Rice, Memphis and Tulane - but at the end of the day, I am certain that conference pays less than the AAC.

Goodbye PAC!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Sorry for bumping without a news development, but I cannot get over how bad the American Athletic Conference is right now. Army would be foolish to join this. This conference will get nothing near the current deal in 8 years. Army and Navy should go independent and negotiate their own deals - their brand far exceeds any of these teams, and it would be better to play a schedule of their choice with SMU out. Memphis needs to get out ASAP if they want to survive. UTSA has a longer leash, but they need to think long and hard about who they want as peers.

Tulane and USF will not have any more value than East Carolina, UAB, Tulsa, UNT and FAU pretty soon, so they missed their slim chance. That's actually an interesting lot of seven teams with a lot of parity - with Charlotte and Rice for the basement (and Temple for the completely stuck lost cause, sucking up a few million dollars a year to be marginally better than UMass).



The Mountain West is looking similarly abysmal with the gap growing between other conferences and its top teams - in addition to the top 6 and bottom 6 within the conference.

I'm not sure Oregon State and Washington State could find six teams that remotely resemble P5 programs to fill out a Pac-12: San Diego State and Memphis are almost there and Boise State and Fresno State might be able to fake it. I don't think UNLV or UTSA or Colorado State can even come close to faking it.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Terrible update for northeastern football!

And just as cries were re-arising for Temple to go back to the Atlantic-10 given that the new American Athletic Conference being a complete disaster for its entire athletic program...

This is a conference that has no identity. Que la 'big metros'? Half of these schools don't have a care about the sport of football, 3 or 4 legitimately could drop it and no one would notice, while 2, maybe 3 are desperate to get away from these afterthoughts.

###

On the realignment note this week, Sacred Heart and Merrimack announced that they are leaving the NEC for the MAAC and will put their football programs in the Big SOUTH... Merrimack didn't even fully transition to be able to win the conference yet! But good luck to our Augustinian brothers nevertheless.

The NEC has been desperate for membership and will need a couple to retain their basketball AQ in the long haul. They have been linked to Delaware State - but that would break up the MEAC and they may be forced to take Coppin State, UMES and Morgan State too while the other half of the conference moves on to higher places (RIP Celebration Bowl).

If the MEAC opts to stay together, the NEC has also long been linked to the University of New Haven from the Northeast-10 (D2), which has upgraded its facilities in anticipation of going to D1. Respectable football program too that would compete for conference titles immediately. Additionally, Bentley has had a respectable basketball program, but no evidence just yet that they would be in play.

The remaining ten schools in the NE-10 probably do not have D1 aspirations. Assumption is built for D2 football. So if the NEC has any more departures, it will certainly have to resort to D1 merger.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The University of Delaware, after years of meandering, will be the first school to pay the $5 million upgrade fee in order to join Conference USA - a conference that in no way fits their geographic profile - for all sports (perhaps lacrosse will stay? TBD).

Delaware will be the 11th member of the the conference. Quite an ugly number. Such desperation. I have to think equally desperate Missouri State will try to be #12 given their deep pockets. Chattanooga is the best fit, but they seem happy with their peer group. Eastern Kentucky is pretty desperate but the C-USA lacks interest. Tarleton State seems the most ambitious but with FCS transition in process, I am not sure they have yet leaped Stephen F. Austin for the next Texas FBS school.


The CAA appears to be the new "WAC" - expanding far too much for its own good - and may be on the verge of collapse. There are 15 football members remaining (7 affiliates) and 13 all sports members. Would not be surprised to see them add half of the MEAC and allow the other half to seek NEC membership (they really want Howard and maybe NCCU).

At least six of the football affiliates could just form a new conference in the name of the Atlantic-10 (or America East) so they do not have to play such watered down opposition. My speculation: Fordham is a ripe target to join them. Holy Cross might be eager to but won't want to leave the Patriot League in other sports without a suitor. Georgetown and Duquesne may elicit interest but don't have the funding. Sacred Heart, Merrimack, Bryant and Robert Morris are practically homeless, but unlikely to be serious partners.


Long-term, I don't see how Delaware stays in C-USA. Even worse position than Temple. Those two still need to join forces with UMass to figure something out.

More dominoes coming soon! Even before the Pac reaches its solution

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

My suggestion, all of which seem like good fits:

SEC (24) - Virginia, Virginia Tech, Duke, North Carolina, NC State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State
Big 10 (22) - Stanford, Cal, Syracuse, Notre Dame, plus maybe 2 Big 12 schools?
Big 12 (19/17) - Pittsburgh, Louisville, SMU
Big East - Boston College, Wake Forest (can be football only in AAC or CUSA)

Better scenario than what will actually happen.
Prospect of Florida State in the Big Ten disgusts me even more than Washington or UCLA. Remember when AAU used to be make-or-break? I hope the SEC pushes hard for them.

You left out Miami, so I guess that rounds out the Big 12.

Big Ten will not be settling for Cal, and probably not Stanford or Cuse either. I've long wanted Virginia there, but I think they end up stuck too when clearly nobody wants them. The new motives are much more shameless than when Rutgers was added. If they don't get FSU, UNC, or Duke, they have no reason to expand.

I'll make you football czar just this once.

UNC and Duke seem like a natural fit with the SEC.

I couldn't disagree more. Not one thing about Duke feels natural in the SEC, and North Carolina should view Michigan, Wisconsin, Maryland, Washington and UCLA as much closer athletic and cultural peers than anyone in the SEC. I can't imagine the SEC going from zero lacrosse teams to 8 national championships overnight.

Clemson is by far the most natural fit, arguably followed by Virginia Tech which has just fallen off too much as an athletic program this decade to receive immediate consideration.

Florida State / NC State / Georgia Tech would also be ahead of this pair in terms of pure cultural fit.