2023 NCAA conference realignment (12/20: the PAC-2 join the WCC)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JoeJHoyt/status/1689413457798430720

[Storr]

lmao

https://twitter.com/ADavidHaleJoint/status/1689498510595366912?s=20

[Greedo punched first]

Where will Stanford and Cal go? Crucial schools for Olympic sports.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Where will Stanford and Cal go? Crucial schools for Olympic sports.

Either the ACC or AAC.  Oregon State and Wazzu will end up in either the MWC or AAC.

[Greedo punched first]

Would the American or Mountain West be better for Oregon State and Washington State? Home broadcast rights for the Mountain West don't require any subscription streaming service.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The Pac-12 has half of its 2021 $36 million in NCAA Tournament units to distribution and most of its 10-12 million to distribute for each of the last two years.

Further, there is an annual $20 million CFP payment per G5 conference. Why split this 18 ways when you can split it 9-10? (And keeping a Pac conference may be able to steal a bowl tie-in worth more than $20 million although perhaps less than the full $80 million share that the real powers get.)

I do not believe the Pac is ready to die. Surely they can at least get a tv deal matching the AAC's $7 million per school annually and perhaps 2.5x that. Why settle for so little when your schools are certainly worth more than Charlotte?

The Pac's path forward will be to secure SMU and Tulane for 2024 (Rice may not be up to par for a tv contract) - unless NorCal can swallow their pride and accept Memphis too. Then in one year they can grab San Diego State and either Colorado State and Utah State - or, if NorCal allows it for the sake of tv money, UNLV and Boise State.

The hardest consideration will be if the exit fee is worth it for those Mountain West schools. It would likely be worth it in the long-run (especially for San Diego State), unless Cal and Stanford suddenly get a life raft and they get stuck with the same old conference - but it will rely on a television partner's help in setting up a much better deal before they agree to it.

[Greedo punched first]

Is Clemson really going to leave the ACC?

[NewYorkExpress]

A bit further down in the weeds, but starting in 2024, Bryant University is joining the CAA in football.

[Greedo punched first]

Is the ACC in danger of losing major schools?

[Storr]

Where will Stanford and Cal go? Crucial schools for Olympic sports.

Either the ACC or AAC.  Oregon State and Wazzu will end up in either the MWC or AAC.

There is a scenario where the Pac-4 adds 4 AAC schools in 2024 (let's say SMU, Rice, Tulane, and Memphis), reaching the power conference minimum of 8 members. Then the Pac-8 adds 4 (or more?) Mountain West schools in 2025, when the MW exit fee lowers to $17 million down from $34 million in 2024.

I don't feel this is likely as it would take good leadership to manage such a plan. The Pac-4's current leadership has accomplished nothing, so I don't have any faith they could pull off a multi-year conference rebuild.

My guess is that Oregon State and Wazzou end up joining the Mountain West with concessions where they receive extra money. Boise State got similar concessions in 2012 when agreeing to stay in the MW instead of joining the Big East. "The MW's television deal pays schools $3.2 million per year with Boise State getting $5 million".

[Greedo punched first]

Where will Stanford and Cal go? Crucial schools for Olympic sports.

Either the ACC or AAC.  Oregon State and Wazzu will end up in either the MWC or AAC.

There is a scenario where the Pac-4 adds 4 AAC schools in 2024 (let's say SMU, Rice, Tulane, and Memphis), reaching the power conference minimum of 8 members. Then the Pac-8 adds 4 (or more?) Mountain West schools in 2025, when the MW exit fee lowers to $17 million down from $34 million in 2024.

I don't feel this is likely as it would take good leadership to manage such a plan. The Pac-4's current leadership has accomplished nothing, so I don't have any faith they could pull of a multi-year conference rebuild.

Where could Stanford, Cal, and San Diego State go?

[MasterJedi]

Is the ACC in danger of losing major schools?

Guaranteed they lose the top half of the conference. Might take a few years but they will.

[Greedo punched first]

Is San Diego State going to at least stay in the Mountain West, or will it be relegated to Conference USA?

[Storr]

The Pac-12 has half of its 2021 $36 million in NCAA Tournament units to distribution and most of its 10-12 million to distribute for each of the last two years.

Further, there is an annual $20 million CFP payment per G5 conference. Why split this 18 ways when you can split it 9-10? (And keeping a Pac conference may be able to steal a bowl tie-in worth more than $20 million although perhaps less than the full $80 million share that the real powers get.)

I do not believe the Pac is ready to die. Surely they can at least get a tv deal matching the AAC's $7 million per school annually and perhaps 2.5x that. Why settle for so little when your schools are certainly worth more than Charlotte?

The Pac's path forward will be to secure SMU and Tulane for 2024 (Rice may not be up to par for a tv contract) - unless NorCal can swallow their pride and accept Memphis too. Then in one year they can grab San Diego State and either Colorado State and Utah State - or, if NorCal allows it for the sake of tv money, UNLV and Boise State.

The hardest consideration will be if the exit fee is worth it for those Mountain West schools. It would likely be worth it in the long-run (especially for San Diego State), unless Cal and Stanford suddenly get a life raft and they get stuck with the same old conference - but it will rely on a television partner's help in setting up a much better deal before they agree to it.

The first thing that needed to happen for the Pac to survive, just happened. Personally, I'm hoping a rebuilt Pac includes Tulane, Rice, and SMU because all three schools used to be in power conferences back in the olden days.

https://twitter.com/NicoleAuerbach/status/1690138833700958208?s=20

[Greedo punched first]

If the Pac conference can rebuild, why not add Gonzaga and San Diego State?

[NewYorkExpress]

The Pac-12 has half of its 2021 $36 million in NCAA Tournament units to distribution and most of its 10-12 million to distribute for each of the last two years.

Further, there is an annual $20 million CFP payment per G5 conference. Why split this 18 ways when you can split it 9-10? (And keeping a Pac conference may be able to steal a bowl tie-in worth more than $20 million although perhaps less than the full $80 million share that the real powers get.)

I do not believe the Pac is ready to die. Surely they can at least get a tv deal matching the AAC's $7 million per school annually and perhaps 2.5x that. Why settle for so little when your schools are certainly worth more than Charlotte?

The Pac's path forward will be to secure SMU and Tulane for 2024 (Rice may not be up to par for a tv contract) - unless NorCal can swallow their pride and accept Memphis too. Then in one year they can grab San Diego State and either Colorado State and Utah State - or, if NorCal allows it for the sake of tv money, UNLV and Boise State.

The hardest consideration will be if the exit fee is worth it for those Mountain West schools. It would likely be worth it in the long-run (especially for San Diego State), unless Cal and Stanford suddenly get a life raft and they get stuck with the same old conference - but it will rely on a television partner's help in setting up a much better deal before they agree to it.

The first thing that needed to happen for the Pac to survive, just happened. Personally, I'm hoping a rebuilt Pac includes Tulane, Rice, and SMU because all three schools used to be in power conferences back in the olden days.

https://twitter.com/NicoleAuerbach/status/1690138833700958208?s=20

All four schools are looking to leave the ACC. It's not in their interest to try and save that conference by adding new members.

[Greedo punched first]

Will Stanford and Cal be able to get into another power conference?

[Greedo punched first]

Does Cal and/or Stanford actually get relegated to Conference USA or the Sun Belt?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does Cal and/or Stanford actually get relegated to Conference USA or the Sun Belt?

No, the AAC (which is better than either of those) has already made it clear they’ll take the remaining PAC-4 schools.

[Greedo punched first]

Does Cal and/or Stanford actually get relegated to Conference USA or the Sun Belt?

No, the AAC (which is better than either of those) has already made it clear they’ll take the remaining PAC-4 schools.

Is the AAC better than the Mountain West?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I've seen speculation that the average annual value for my proposed contract is just below $11 million (Fresno is being substituted for Utah State - same US News rank, equivalent football standing - but I can't see another local school acknowledged as a peer. Utah State's outdated and undersized football stadium must suffice. But few seem to agree at this stage.) I suppose my $17 million estimate was quite hopeful, and I guess I knew it.

I think it needs to be at least $13-14 million to entice the MW's top teams. Exit fee covered by NCAA tournament payouts and a TV deal that reaps major dividends once the current one is set to expire. $11 million could pay off, but I don't know how you trust snakes like Stanford and Cal to sit still and not leave you stranded in the same boat they are in right now, aside from the fact that they provide no value to anybody unless they are packaged with Notre Dame. Even then they are likely dilutive.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does Cal and/or Stanford actually get relegated to Conference USA or the Sun Belt?

No, the AAC (which is better than either of those) has already made it clear they’ll take the remaining PAC-4 schools.

Is the AAC better than the Mountain West?

Athletically they're comparable.  The AAC has a few "name" academic schools that might make them more attractive to Stanford and Cal.

[Storr]

Does Cal and/or Stanford actually get relegated to Conference USA or the Sun Belt?

No, the AAC (which is better than either of those) has already made it clear they’ll take the remaining PAC-4 schools.

Is the AAC better than the Mountain West?

Athletically they're comparable.  The AAC has a few "name" academic schools that might make them more attractive to Stanford and Cal.

The AAC earns more TV revenue than the other G5 conferences. So, from a money perspective it's on a level above the Mountain West. The actual quality of the athletics in the two conferences is more even, in my opinion.

Group of 5 conference TV revenue payouts to each member school per year:

American: $7 million

Mountain West: $3.2 million

Mid-American: $600,000

Sun Belt: $500,000

Conference USA: $400,000 to $500,000

I'd be fine with the hypothetical conference in the first tweet below. Though, I doubt the Pac would take Fresno State. That would give the conference 4 of 10 schools being in California. I think they'd take Colorado State or UNLV instead for their media markets.

https://twitter.com/slmandel/status/1690429188803899392?s=20

[Storr]

Does Cal and/or Stanford actually get relegated to Conference USA or the Sun Belt?

No, the AAC (which is better than either of those) has already made it clear they’ll take the remaining PAC-4 schools.

Is the AAC better than the Mountain West?

Athletically they're comparable.  The AAC has a few "name" academic schools that might make them more attractive to Stanford and Cal.

[text snip]

I'd be fine with the hypothetical conference in the first tweet below. Though, I doubt the Pac would take Fresno State. That would give the conference 4 of 10 schools being in California. I think they'd take Colorado State or UNLV instead for their media markets.

https://twitter.com/slmandel/status/1690429188803899392?s=20

One of the comments on the r/CFB reddit thread for Mandel's comments gave me a chuckle:

"And they'll split nicely into divisions

Nerd Divison--Stanford, Cal, Rice, Tulane, SMU

All "State" Division--Oregon State, Washington State, San Diego State, Fresno State, Boise State"

[Greedo punched first]

Create a new Southwest Conference!