2023 NCAA conference realignment (12/20: the PAC-2 join the WCC)

[GeorgiaModerate]

There are a bunch of reports flying around that the Pac-12 is considering expanding by adding San Diego State and SMU, in order to forestall some of its remaining schools (after UCLA and USC leave for the Big 10) being poached by the Big 12 (which is losing Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC, but gaining BYU, Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF).   If this happens, what further moves would it be likely to trigger?

[NewYorkExpress]

Gonzaga finally leaving the WCC for a bigger conference seems to be the obvious one to me. Either they go to the PAC-12 (makes sense geographically or the Big Twelve, where they were rumored to be going earlier, with a slim possibility of the Big East also there).

[Santander]

Gonzaga finally leaving the WCC for a bigger conference seems to be the obvious one to me. Either they go to the PAC-12 (makes sense geographically or the Big Twelve, where they were rumored to be going earlier, with a slim possibility of the Big East also there).

lol.

[7,052,770]

It would be better for the conferences to all work together on alignment, rather than doing it piecemeal here and there.

For example, a year ago, the remaining G5s could have picked CUSA apart and just left a G4, but instead they gave CUSA the chance to rebuild with FCS and Independent teams. Similarly, the Big 12 and Big 10 (and maybe SEC?) could pick apart the Pac-12 and get it down to a P4, but they won't. So instead, we'll just more G5 teams joining P5 leagues, and in a few years, more Pac-12 teams are going to leave.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The two most obvious pickups that belong at the P5 level - long overdue for SMU's return.

All we can say is poor Memphis - they have no business falling behind, but who would ever take them but the Big XII?

That should bring all reasonable expansion candidates to the P5 level aside from Memphis. 8 Mountain West schools will continue to plead, and maybe someone will break through next decade; Tulane, USF, Temple and Tulsa will whine about how they belong despite adding no value. But any other addition would be a desperation move.

It would be better for the conferences to all work together on alignment, rather than doing it piecemeal here and there.

For example, a year ago, the remaining G5s could have picked CUSA apart and just left a G4, but instead they gave CUSA the chance to rebuild with FCS and Independent teams. Similarly, the Big 12 and Big 10 (and maybe SEC?) could pick apart the Pac-12 and get it down to a P4, but they won't. So instead, we'll just more G5 teams joining P5 leagues, and in a few years, more Pac-12 teams are going to leave.

Why is this a bad thing? Aren't you the one all for inclusivity of all cities and willing participants?

I'm not sure it's a good thing for the G5 conferences either. a) they lose voting power by having one less among their peer group; and b) they lose funds by having to split payouts among more teams, especially with respect to the NCAA Tournament allotments. [You could argue higher portion of CFP money dealt out to make up for it, but I doubt collaboration/paying them off would close the gap enough or be worth it. It was hard enough to get buy-in on the new playoff size from just the power conferences and bowls.]

The MAC had every chance to put the nail in the coffin, but they refused by rejecting Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky - two pretty respectable programs! (And UL would not give up the chance to play in a superior conference to LT.)

Sam Houston's facilities are a bit of a joke, but they are a quality program that isn't too far from FBS. Kennesaw and Jacksonville State are more than on par with FBS, especially the latter, and it's absurd not to allow the Gamecocks to compete based on where their historical placement when they have the means to do so.

Also, the ASUN move-up to form a G6 conference is already fully in motion with big news at the end of the year. (Which for the record, I am opposed to since there are only at best 2-4 halfway decent programs among the 10 -  nevertheless, there are 20-40 other FCS programs that would be worthwhile additions to the Bowl subdivision if they can latch on).

[Crumpets]

SMU as in Southern Methodist University in Dallas? Kind of a ways away from the Pacific, don't you think?

[Comrade Funk]

SMU as in Southern Methodist University in Dallas? Kind of a ways away from the Pacific, don't you think?

Would fit the theme of the decline of college sports

[Santander]

SMU as in Southern Methodist University in Dallas? Kind of a ways away from the Pacific, don't you think?

CU is already on the other side of the Continental Divide.

[Stockdale for Veep]

I'm waiting for some random school to exploit NIL by paying something like $100 million to the top basketball recruits. (picture a crazy oil money alum) Weber State winning the national title is what it's going to take for the big schools to finally say enough and break away to start regulating their own league.

[I’m not Stu]

SMU as in Southern Methodist University in Dallas? Kind of a ways away from the Pacific, don't you think?

Yes, but why not when the Big Ten is becoming a coast to coast conference?

[GeorgiaModerate]

There are now some reports that the "Four Corners" schools (Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and Arizona State) are in talks with the Big 12.  I think we had a similar rumor in last year's realignment mill.  No idea how this would affect the rumored move of SMU and San Diego State to the Pac-12.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/big-12-in-contact-with-arizona-arizona-state-colorado-utah-as-pac-12-media-rights-future-remains-uncertain/

[I’m not Stu]

Will California Baptist join the WCC, since it's a Christian school? The WCC also has a better television contract with no home broadcast rights on ESPN+.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Will California Baptist join the WCC, since it's a Christian school? The WCC also has a better television contract with no home broadcast rights on ESPN+.

No, it doesn't align with the values or athletics of the WCC. Gonzaga would prefer fewer conference games and could threaten to leave with expansion.

Seattle University is Catholic, urban and an historical program. This would be the only logical fit if they can better meet WCC standards of play. Currently they are an inadequate replacement for BYU - closer in quality to USD and Santa Clara than San Francisco and LMU. Too much downside risk. Grand Canyon is also a minor candidate if expansion is needed due to their respectable facilities but is also a longshot

California Baptist has a better shot begging the Big West despite not being a public school. They are teetering on an island, and the Big West has the travel geography that a program of CBU's standing can better manage. But I really doubt the Big West wants them either.

[NewYorkExpress]

Will California Baptist join the WCC, since it's a Christian school? The WCC also has a better television contract with no home broadcast rights on ESPN+.

No, it doesn't align with the values or athletics of the WCC. Gonzaga would prefer fewer conference games and could threaten to leave with expansion.

Seattle University is Catholic, urban and an historical program. This would be the only logical fit if they can better meet WCC standards of play. Currently they are an inadequate replacement for BYU - closer in quality to USD and Santa Clara than San Francisco and LMU. Too much downside risk. Grand Canyon is also a minor candidate if expansion is needed due to their respectable facilities but is also a longshot

California Baptist has a better shot begging the Big West despite not being a public school. They are teetering on an island, and the Big West has the travel geography that a program of CBU's standing can better manage. But I really doubt the Big West wants them either.

Still think Gonzaga going to one of the PAC-12/Big Twelve/Big East seems plausible.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Will California Baptist join the WCC, since it's a Christian school? The WCC also has a better television contract with no home broadcast rights on ESPN+.

No, it doesn't align with the values or athletics of the WCC. Gonzaga would prefer fewer conference games and could threaten to leave with expansion.

Seattle University is Catholic, urban and an historical program. This would be the only logical fit if they can better meet WCC standards of play. Currently they are an inadequate replacement for BYU - closer in quality to USD and Santa Clara than San Francisco and LMU. Too much downside risk. Grand Canyon is also a minor candidate if expansion is needed due to their respectable facilities but is also a longshot

California Baptist has a better shot begging the Big West despite not being a public school. They are teetering on an island, and the Big West has the travel geography that a program of CBU's standing can better manage. But I really doubt the Big West wants them either.

Still think Gonzaga going to one of the PAC-12/Big Twelve/Big East seems plausible.

There's absolutely no way (zip, nada, none) the Pac-12 or Big 12 takes a non-football school, regardless of how good they are in basketball.  The Big East would be a slight possibility, but the travel distance from the other schools may make it a non-starter.

[Хahar 🤔]

Seattle University is Catholic, urban and an historical program. This would be the only logical fit if they can better meet WCC standards of play. Currently they are an inadequate replacement for BYU - closer in quality to USD and Santa Clara than San Francisco and LMU. Too much downside risk. Grand Canyon is also a minor candidate if expansion is needed due to their respectable facilities but is also a longshot

I don't understand your categories of "San Diego and Santa Clara" and "San Francisco and Loyola Marymount", since San Diego was the worst team of that group this year and Santa Clara was the best. Is this based on something other than men's basketball performance?

Anyway, Gonzaga doesn't want Seattle so they're never getting in. There's no need for the conference to replace BYU and I haven't seen any indication that the conference intends to. Grand Canyon was a for-profit school until a couple years ago, so no conference that isn't desperate wants them. It's why they're stuck in the WAC.

[I’m not Stu]

Isn't the WAC a dying conference?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Seattle University is Catholic, urban and an historical program. This would be the only logical fit if they can better meet WCC standards of play. Currently they are an inadequate replacement for BYU - closer in quality to USD and Santa Clara than San Francisco and LMU. Too much downside risk. Grand Canyon is also a minor candidate if expansion is needed due to their respectable facilities but is also a longshot

I don't understand your categories of "San Diego and Santa Clara" and "San Francisco and Loyola Marymount", since San Diego was the worst team of that group this year and Santa Clara was the best. Is this based on something other than men's basketball performance?

No, I am clearly wrong. Santa Clara, LMU and San Diego belong in the "good team 20 percent of the time" category with San Diego having the highest variance in outcomes in a very bad way. I guess I want to think of Loyola Marymount as a sleeper program with the resources/history/location that can put them on par with San Francisco, but they are clearly not there yet.

Two good seasons under Herb Sendek does not elevate Santa Clara clearly above as a program after extended mediocrity, but maybe you know better about their ability to retain him.

[Хahar 🤔]

Seattle University is Catholic, urban and an historical program. This would be the only logical fit if they can better meet WCC standards of play. Currently they are an inadequate replacement for BYU - closer in quality to USD and Santa Clara than San Francisco and LMU. Too much downside risk. Grand Canyon is also a minor candidate if expansion is needed due to their respectable facilities but is also a longshot

I don't understand your categories of "San Diego and Santa Clara" and "San Francisco and Loyola Marymount", since San Diego was the worst team of that group this year and Santa Clara was the best. Is this based on something other than men's basketball performance?

No, I am clearly wrong. Santa Clara, LMU and San Diego belong in the "good team 20 percent of the time" category with San Diego having the highest variance in outcomes in a very bad way. I guess I want to think of Loyola Marymount as a sleeper program with the resources/history/location that can put them on par with San Francisco, but they are clearly not there yet.

Two good seasons under Herb Sendek does not elevate Santa Clara clearly above as a program after extended mediocrity, but maybe you know better about their ability to retain him.

No, I agree that Santa Clara is basically in the same category as a program; I just mean that Santa Clara was the best of the bunch this year. If Brandin Podziemski can get serious pro attention after Jalen Williams was a lottery pick, that could move the needle for Santa Clara, but that's all hypothetical.

When I visited Saint Mary's for the Gonzaga game last month, I was thinking about Big East expansion, since rumors of Gonzaga joining the Big East usually involve a western travel partner coming along with them. Saint Mary's is the obvious choice from the standpoint of basketball success, but it would have to move at least some of its home games to the Oakland Arena, and it's just a really small school. Its enrollment and endowment would both be the smallest in the Big East, although Providence is relatively close.

San Francisco is a big-city school that would fit right into the Big East and has a lot of historic success, but ever since the school shut down the men's basketball program for two years in the early '80s it hasn't been seriously competitive. I think that Santa Clara would actually make a lot of sense; in terms of location and size and academic reputation, it really closely resembles Villanova. Of course the difference is that Santa Clara hasn't been seriously invested in sports other than soccer in more than half a century.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

In more urgent news, does anyone understand what Cal/Stanford plan to do if the only six valuable schools all leave the conference, now that they appear to be off the Big Ten wishlist?

It was reported yesterday that Boise State, Fresno State and UNLV are not on the Pac-12 expansion list solely because of academics (and instead Colorado State somehow is). It's hard to see this exclusionary behavior being driven by anyone else, and it's almost certain to accelerate their own demise.

Oregon State and Washington State would go MW if they had to, but it's clear Cal/Stanford will not relegate themselves to that future. Football independence? But they have to put other sports somewhere. And I'm not sure which schools they would align themselves with west of the Mississippi. Rice and UC Davis? Surely this arrangement would not be of interest to SMU any longer.

Seems complicated by them participating in nearly every sport possible.

[I’m not Stu]

Is San Diego State on the Pac 12's list for possible expansion?

[7,052,770]

In more urgent news, does anyone understand what Cal/Stanford plan to do if the only six valuable schools all leave the conference, now that they appear to be off the Big Ten wishlist?

It was reported yesterday that Boise State, Fresno State and UNLV are not on the Pac-12 expansion list solely because of academics (and instead Colorado State somehow is). It's hard to see this exclusionary behavior being driven by anyone else, and it's almost certain to accelerate their own demise.

Oregon State and Washington State would go MW if they had to, but it's clear Cal/Stanford will not relegate themselves to that future. Football independence? But they have to put other sports somewhere. And I'm not sure which schools they would align themselves with west of the Mississippi. Rice and UC-Davis? Surely this arrangement would not be of interest to SMU any longer.

Seems complicated by them participating in nearly every sport possible.

Stanford should go to the Ivy League and Cal to the Big West. Football can go independent or a G5 affiliate.

[I’m not Stu]

In more urgent news, does anyone understand what Cal/Stanford plan to do if the only six valuable schools all leave the conference, now that they appear to be off the Big Ten wishlist?

It was reported yesterday that Boise State, Fresno State and UNLV are not on the Pac-12 expansion list solely because of academics (and instead Colorado State somehow is). It's hard to see this exclusionary behavior being driven by anyone else, and it's almost certain to accelerate their own demise.

Oregon State and Washington State would go MW if they had to, but it's clear Cal/Stanford will not relegate themselves to that future. Football independence? But they have to put other sports somewhere. And I'm not sure which schools they would align themselves with west of the Mississippi. Rice and UC-Davis? Surely this arrangement would not be of interest to SMU any longer.

Seems complicated by them participating in nearly every sport possible.

Stanford should go to the Ivy League and Cal to the Big West. Football can go independent or a G5 affiliate.

Stanford and Cal don't want to be relegated to ESPN+.

[7,052,770]

In more urgent news, does anyone understand what Cal/Stanford plan to do if the only six valuable schools all leave the conference, now that they appear to be off the Big Ten wishlist?

It was reported yesterday that Boise State, Fresno State and UNLV are not on the Pac-12 expansion list solely because of academics (and instead Colorado State somehow is). It's hard to see this exclusionary behavior being driven by anyone else, and it's almost certain to accelerate their own demise.

Oregon State and Washington State would go MW if they had to, but it's clear Cal/Stanford will not relegate themselves to that future. Football independence? But they have to put other sports somewhere. And I'm not sure which schools they would align themselves with west of the Mississippi. Rice and UC-Davis? Surely this arrangement would not be of interest to SMU any longer.

Seems complicated by them participating in nearly every sport possible.

Stanford should go to the Ivy League and Cal to the Big West. Football can go independent or a G5 affiliate.

Stanford and Cal don't want to be relegated to ESPN+.

It's probably happening anyway if they can't get into the Big 10.

[I’m not Stu]

In more urgent news, does anyone understand what Cal/Stanford plan to do if the only six valuable schools all leave the conference, now that they appear to be off the Big Ten wishlist?

It was reported yesterday that Boise State, Fresno State and UNLV are not on the Pac-12 expansion list solely because of academics (and instead Colorado State somehow is). It's hard to see this exclusionary behavior being driven by anyone else, and it's almost certain to accelerate their own demise.

Oregon State and Washington State would go MW if they had to, but it's clear Cal/Stanford will not relegate themselves to that future. Football independence? But they have to put other sports somewhere. And I'm not sure which schools they would align themselves with west of the Mississippi. Rice and UC-Davis? Surely this arrangement would not be of interest to SMU any longer.

Seems complicated by them participating in nearly every sport possible.

Stanford should go to the Ivy League and Cal to the Big West. Football can go independent or a G5 affiliate.

Stanford and Cal don't want to be relegated to ESPN+.

It's probably happening anyway if they can't get into the Big 10.

The Pac 12 dies then?