2023 NCAA conference realignment (12/20: the PAC-2 join the WCC)

[Storr]

"University of West Georgia seeking reclassification to D-I, [FCS] ASUN membership"

West Georgia is where Newt Gingrich was a history professor before getting into politics.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Sorry for bumping without a news development, but I cannot get over how bad the American Athletic Conference is right now. Army would be foolish to join this. This conference will get nothing near the current deal in 8 years. Army and Navy should go independent and negotiate their own deals - their brand far exceeds any of these teams, and it would be better to play a schedule of their choice with SMU out. Memphis needs to get out ASAP if they want to survive. UTSA has a longer leash, but they need to think long and hard about who they want as peers.

Tulane and USF will not have any more value than East Carolina, UAB, Tulsa, UNT and FAU pretty soon, so they missed their slim chance. That's actually an interesting lot of seven teams with a lot of parity - with Charlotte and Rice for the basement (and Temple for the completely stuck lost cause, sucking up a few million dollars a year to be marginally better than UMass).



The Mountain West is looking similarly abysmal with the gap growing between other conferences and its top teams - in addition to the top 6 and bottom 6 within the conference.

I'm not sure Oregon State and Washington State could find six teams that remotely resemble P5 programs to fill out a Pac-12: San Diego State and Memphis are almost there and Boise State and Fresno State might be able to fake it. I don't think UNLV or UTSA or Colorado State can even come close to faking it.

[Greedo punched first]

San Diego State should be invited into a power conference because of its basketball program.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sorry for bumping without a news development, but I cannot get over how bad the American Athletic Conference is right now. Army would be foolish to join this. This conference will get nothing near the current deal in 8 years. Army and Navy should go independent and negotiate their own deals - their brand far exceeds any of these teams, and it would be better to play a schedule of their choice with SMU out. Memphis needs to get out ASAP if they want to survive. UTSA has a longer leash, but they need to think long and hard about who they want as peers.

Tulane and USF will not have any more value than East Carolina, UAB, Tulsa, UNT and FAU pretty soon, so they missed their slim chance. That's actually an interesting lot of seven teams with a lot of parity - with Charlotte and Rice for the basement (and Temple for the completely stuck lost cause, sucking up a few million dollars a year to be marginally better than UMass).



The Mountain West is looking similarly abysmal with the gap growing between other conferences and its top teams - in addition to the top 6 and bottom 6 within the conference.

I'm not sure Oregon State and Washington State could find six teams that remotely resemble P5 programs to fill out a Pac-12: San Diego State and Memphis are almost there and Boise State and Fresno State might be able to fake it. I don't think UNLV or UTSA or Colorado State can even come close to faking it.

Memphis has been desperately trying to get into a power conference for years.  They thought they would be part of the group added to the Big 12 with Houston, etc.  I read recently they're getting a ton of money from the state and city for upgrades to the football stadium and FedEx Forum, and they've worked hard to improve academically; last year they finally moved up to Carnegie R1 status.

I think the problem with Memphis is not the university or its athletics, but the location (city/metro/media market).  It's just not big enough to be a must-have for a power conference; for a G5 conference, it's fine.  If the school was located in Atlanta or Dallas I think they'd be welcome in a P5.

[Donerail]

Not ideal, but probably the best possible outcome for us here. Long-term goal should still be Big Ten, but when the ACC cracks in 5-6 years (which seems more likely than ever) being in the ACC instead of independent is likely a better position to make that jump.

If the Big Ten was interested in Stanford and Cal, they would have made an offer now. It isn't happening.

Did I say "Cal" anywhere in there? I did not. It is about what Notre Dame wants and attaching yourself at the hip to them when the ACC implodes.

[Greedo punched first]

Will Miami leave the ACC?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Sorry for bumping without a news development, but I cannot get over how bad the American Athletic Conference is right now. Army would be foolish to join this. This conference will get nothing near the current deal in 8 years. Army and Navy should go independent and negotiate their own deals - their brand far exceeds any of these teams, and it would be better to play a schedule of their choice with SMU out. Memphis needs to get out ASAP if they want to survive. UTSA has a longer leash, but they need to think long and hard about who they want as peers.

Tulane and USF will not have any more value than East Carolina, UAB, Tulsa, UNT and FAU pretty soon, so they missed their slim chance. That's actually an interesting lot of seven teams with a lot of parity - with Charlotte and Rice for the basement (and Temple for the completely stuck lost cause, sucking up a few million dollars a year to be marginally better than UMass).



The Mountain West is looking similarly abysmal with the gap growing between other conferences and its top teams - in addition to the top 6 and bottom 6 within the conference.

I'm not sure Oregon State and Washington State could find six teams that remotely resemble P5 programs to fill out a Pac-12: San Diego State and Memphis are almost there and Boise State and Fresno State might be able to fake it. I don't think UNLV or UTSA or Colorado State can even come close to faking it.

Memphis has been desperately trying to get into a power conference for years.  They thought they would be part of the group added to the Big 12 with Houston, etc.  I read recently they're getting a ton of money from the state and city for upgrades to the football stadium and FedEx Forum, and they've worked hard to improve academically; last year they finally moved up to Carnegie R1 status.

I think the problem with Memphis is not the university or its athletics, but the location (city/metro/media market).  It's just not big enough to be a must-have for a power conference; for a G5 conference, it's fine.  If the school was located in Atlanta or Dallas I think they'd be welcome in a P5.

Their other issue (which isn't unique to Memphis but that doesn't help alleviate other concerns) is that there isn't a huge Memphis football fanbase.  Because they sit in the heart of SEC country, most people in the Memphis area are already fans of a different SEC team.

[Greedo punched first]

Memphis, San Diego State, Gonzaga, Tulane, Boise State, UNLV, and Fresno State? I thought of seven that could join the Pac 12.

[Donerail]

The Mountain West is looking similarly abysmal with the gap growing between other conferences and its top teams - in addition to the top 6 and bottom 6 within the conference.

I'm not sure Oregon State and Washington State could find six teams that remotely resemble P5 programs to fill out a Pac-12: San Diego State and Memphis are almost there and Boise State and Fresno State might be able to fake it. I don't think UNLV or UTSA or Colorado State can even come close to faking it.

I don't think the goal for OSU/WSU here is to rebuild the Pac-12 into a bona fide P5 conference — very little reason to try to go get Memphis or Tulane. Just a nice amicable merger with the Mountain West, and maybe you take the opportunity to shear off some of the worst offenders on the MWC side.

[Greedo punched first]

The Mountain West is looking similarly abysmal with the gap growing between other conferences and its top teams - in addition to the top 6 and bottom 6 within the conference.

I'm not sure Oregon State and Washington State could find six teams that remotely resemble P5 programs to fill out a Pac-12: San Diego State and Memphis are almost there and Boise State and Fresno State might be able to fake it. I don't think UNLV or UTSA or Colorado State can even come close to faking it.

I don't think the goal for OSU/WSU here is to rebuild the Pac-12 into a bona fide P5 conference — very little reason to try to go get Memphis or Tulane. Just a nice amicable merger with the Mountain West, and maybe you take the opportunity to shear off some of the worst offenders on the MWC side.

That would still make the Pac-12 a G6 (or G7 if the WAC goes FBS). Gonzaga should be considered if the Pac-12 tries to rebuild if it wants to remain P5.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Mountain West is looking similarly abysmal with the gap growing between other conferences and its top teams - in addition to the top 6 and bottom 6 within the conference.

I'm not sure Oregon State and Washington State could find six teams that remotely resemble P5 programs to fill out a Pac-12: San Diego State and Memphis are almost there and Boise State and Fresno State might be able to fake it. I don't think UNLV or UTSA or Colorado State can even come close to faking it.

I don't think the goal for OSU/WSU here is to rebuild the Pac-12 into a bona fide P5 conference — very little reason to try to go get Memphis or Tulane. Just a nice amicable merger with the Mountain West, and maybe you take the opportunity to shear off some of the worst offenders on the MWC side.

That would still make the Pac-12 a G6 (or G7 if the WAC goes FBS). Gonzaga should be considered if the Pac-12 tries to rebuild if it wants to remain P5.

Gonzaga doesn't play football.

[Greedo punched first]

The Mountain West is looking similarly abysmal with the gap growing between other conferences and its top teams - in addition to the top 6 and bottom 6 within the conference.

I'm not sure Oregon State and Washington State could find six teams that remotely resemble P5 programs to fill out a Pac-12: San Diego State and Memphis are almost there and Boise State and Fresno State might be able to fake it. I don't think UNLV or UTSA or Colorado State can even come close to faking it.

I don't think the goal for OSU/WSU here is to rebuild the Pac-12 into a bona fide P5 conference — very little reason to try to go get Memphis or Tulane. Just a nice amicable merger with the Mountain West, and maybe you take the opportunity to shear off some of the worst offenders on the MWC side.

That would still make the Pac-12 a G6 (or G7 if the WAC goes FBS). Gonzaga should be considered if the Pac-12 tries to rebuild if it wants to remain P5.

Gonzaga doesn't play football.

Why not add a non-football member to help retain P5 status? Gonzaga makes sense in the region. Gonzaga deserves to be in a P5 conference.

[Donerail]

The Mountain West is looking similarly abysmal with the gap growing between other conferences and its top teams - in addition to the top 6 and bottom 6 within the conference.

I'm not sure Oregon State and Washington State could find six teams that remotely resemble P5 programs to fill out a Pac-12: San Diego State and Memphis are almost there and Boise State and Fresno State might be able to fake it. I don't think UNLV or UTSA or Colorado State can even come close to faking it.

I don't think the goal for OSU/WSU here is to rebuild the Pac-12 into a bona fide P5 conference — very little reason to try to go get Memphis or Tulane. Just a nice amicable merger with the Mountain West, and maybe you take the opportunity to shear off some of the worst offenders on the MWC side.

That would still make the Pac-12 a G6 (or G7 if the WAC goes FBS). Gonzaga should be considered if the Pac-12 tries to rebuild if it wants to remain P5.

Gonzaga doesn't play football.

Why not add a non-football member to help retain P5 status? Gonzaga makes sense in the region. Gonzaga deserves to be in a P5 conference.

The Power Five conferences are (were?) the elite conferences in the sport of college football. Football is what drives the media rights deals. This is why P5 conferences don't have any non-football members — they do not "help retain P5 status."

Gonzaga, again, does not play football.

[Greedo punched first]

Please don't attack me. The Big East is a power conference without football. What's wrong with inviting Gonzaga into a power conference in the region?

[Dereich]

Please don't attack me. The Big East is a power conference without football. What's wrong with inviting Gonzaga into a power conference in the region?

By any measure the Big East is not a power conference. Money and media exposure is what makes a power conference. Media rights money is distributed something like 80/20 football/basketball. Big East members get media payments of approximately $4.6m a year. Power conferences on the low end pay out $30 million a year. The non-power AAC's old contract (before its best members left) paid out double that of the Big East.

[Greedo punched first]

The Big East is a power conference, not a mid-major.

[Dereich]

They can call themselves a power conference all they want; they aren't. Big 10, SEC, Big 12, ACC and then a 20 million dollar a year gap with everyone else on the bottom. You cannot function as a serious contender in football unless you are on the right side of that gap. You just can't. Big East money isn't even enough to pay an average P5 head coaches' salary. The reason for Oregon State and Washington State's desperation and Stanford/Cal et all's weird realignment decisions are that they know that. Wazzu and Oregon State won't even be able to afford their current coaching staffs (let alone pay their players) unless they get something better than Mountain West money.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/RossDellenger/status/1707459458853425304?s=20

[100% pro-life no matter what]

They can call themselves a power conference all they want; they aren't. Big 10, SEC, Big 12, ACC and then a 20 million dollar a year gap with everyone else on the bottom. You cannot function as a serious contender in football unless you are on the right side of that gap. You just can't. Big East money isn't even enough to pay an average P5 head coaches' salary. The reason for Oregon State and Washington State's desperation and Stanford/Cal et all's weird realignment decisions are that they know that. Wazzu and Oregon State won't even be able to afford their current coaching staffs (let alone pay their players) unless they get something better than Mountain West money.

When talking about basketball, the Big East is absolutely a power conference.  But, the thing is that basketball barely moves the needle when it comes to conference realignment.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It seems strangely appropriate for Army and Navy football to be in the American Athletic Conference. Now they just need to pick up Air Force!

[Greedo punched first]

The top six conference title winners will get an automatic playoff bid. Will this convince Notre Dame football to join a conference?

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's official: Army joins the AAC for football only.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38741191/army-set-join-aac-football-sources-say-navy-game-intact

The annual Army-Navy game will be a nonconference game, and the two service academies will not be scheduled against each other for regular season conference games.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Terrible update for northeastern football!

And just as cries were re-arising for Temple to go back to the Atlantic-10 given that the new American Athletic Conference being a complete disaster for its entire athletic program...

This is a conference that has no identity. Que la 'big metros'? Half of these schools don't have a care about the sport of football, 3 or 4 legitimately could drop it and no one would notice, while 2, maybe 3 are desperate to get away from these afterthoughts.

###

On the realignment note this week, Sacred Heart and Merrimack announced that they are leaving the NEC for the MAAC and will put their football programs in the Big SOUTH... Merrimack didn't even fully transition to be able to win the conference yet! But good luck to our Augustinian brothers nevertheless.

The NEC has been desperate for membership and will need a couple to retain their basketball AQ in the long haul. They have been linked to Delaware State - but that would break up the MEAC and they may be forced to take Coppin State, UMES and Morgan State too while the other half of the conference moves on to higher places (RIP Celebration Bowl).

If the MEAC opts to stay together, the NEC has also long been linked to the University of New Haven from the Northeast-10 (D2), which has upgraded its facilities in anticipation of going to D1. Respectable football program too that would compete for conference titles immediately. Additionally, Bentley has had a respectable basketball program, but no evidence just yet that they would be in play.

The remaining ten schools in the NE-10 probably do not have D1 aspirations. Assumption is built for D2 football. So if the NEC has any more departures, it will certainly have to resort to D1 merger.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The University of Delaware, after years of meandering, will be the first school to pay the $5 million upgrade fee in order to join Conference USA - a conference that in no way fits their geographic profile - for all sports (perhaps lacrosse will stay? TBD).

Delaware will be the 11th member of the the conference. Quite an ugly number. Such desperation. I have to think equally desperate Missouri State will try to be #12 given their deep pockets. Chattanooga is the best fit, but they seem happy with their peer group. Eastern Kentucky is pretty desperate but the C-USA lacks interest. Tarleton State seems the most ambitious but with FCS transition in process, I am not sure they have yet leaped Stephen F. Austin for the next Texas FBS school.


The CAA appears to be the new "WAC" - expanding far too much for its own good - and may be on the verge of collapse. There are 15 football members remaining (7 affiliates) and 13 all sports members. Would not be surprised to see them add half of the MEAC and allow the other half to seek NEC membership (they really want Howard and maybe NCCU).

At least six of the football affiliates could just form a new conference in the name of the Atlantic-10 (or America East) so they do not have to play such watered down opposition. My speculation: Fordham is a ripe target to join them. Holy Cross might be eager to but won't want to leave the Patriot League in other sports without a suitor. Georgetown and Duquesne may elicit interest but don't have the funding. Sacred Heart, Merrimack, Bryant and Robert Morris are practically homeless, but unlikely to be serious partners.


Long-term, I don't see how Delaware stays in C-USA. Even worse position than Temple. Those two still need to join forces with UMass to figure something out.

More dominoes coming soon! Even before the Pac reaches its solution

[GeorgiaModerate]

Oregon State and Washington State are nearing an agreement to join the West Coast Conference as affiliate members next year in multiple sports, most notably men's and women's basketball, sources told ESPN, confirming multiple reports.

It is an agreement similar to the one the schools reached with the Mountain West to play six football games against MW teams next year but with a major difference. While the Beavers' and Cougars' games against MW schools in football will not count toward the conference standings, there is an expectation their games will count toward the standings for other sports in the WCC. They are also expected to be eligible to participate in conference tournaments and eligible to represent the WCC in NCAA championship events.

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/39156187/oregon-state-washington-state-agreement-join-west-coast-conference-affiliate-members-sources-say