GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[wbrocks67]

Anyone have an update on exit polls? I would think we would just like 2021, but who knows.

[Gass3268]

Word on the ground is there has been high turnout of both werewolves and vampires.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Word on the ground is there has been high turnout of both werewolves and vampires.

Who does this favor? On the one hand, I haven’t seen much of an outreach effort by the Warnock campaign, but Walker’s outreach painted the community in quite a bad light and made many upset.

[Skill and Chance]

An hour later: 153/163 Dekalb precincts currently have no wait times; 8 have waits of approximately 5 minutes & 2 have 10-minute waits.

Seems like a suboptimally large # of people voted early then, assuming they were in town today?

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1600173572650958848?cxt=HHwWgICgjdzY-rQsAA...

[Landslide Lyndon]

Word on the ground is there has been high turnout of both werewolves and vampires.

But what about Libertarian zombies?

[Adam Griffin]

An hour later: 153/163 Dekalb precincts currently have no wait times; 8 have waits of approximately 5 minutes & 2 have 10-minute waits.

Seems like a suboptimally large # of people voted early then, assuming they were in town today?

Apparently (think I saw it here on an earlier post), 250k people statewide voted in the first 2 hours. This of course was a combination of working-age people queuing up before their shifts & an absurdly large number of old farts who've been up since 4 with nothing better to do before swinging by the Hardee's for their sausage and mustard biscuits & going to their doctor appointments.

[Gass3268]

Current estimates for votes cast today are around 1.1-1.3 million.

https://twitter.com/rahulbali/status/1600215832847450112?s=20&t=bnz4ulqGgxQJ...

[Lief 🗽]

Current estimates for votes cast today are around 1.1-1.3 million.

https://twitter.com/rahulbali/status/1600215832847450112?s=20&t=bnz4ulqGgxQJ...

It’s OVER, congratulations Senator Warnock!

[2016]

Warnock will win by 10+ Points. The Question is when will the Race be called. My guess between 8 and 9pm ET!

[Minnesota Mike]

An hour later: 153/163 Dekalb precincts currently have no wait times; 8 have waits of approximately 5 minutes & 2 have 10-minute waits.

Seems like a suboptimally large # of people voted early then, assuming they were in town today?

Apparently (think I saw it here on an earlier post), 250k people statewide voted in the first 2 hours. This of course was a combination of working-age people queuing up before their shifts & an absurdly large number of old farts who've been up since 4 with nothing better to do before swinging by the Hardee's for their sausage and mustard biscuits & going to their doctor appointments.

This hits a little too close to home

[BenjiG98]

Warnock will win by 10+ Points. The Question is when will the Race be called. My guess between 8 and 9pm ET!

From your lips to God's ears.

[MT Treasurer]

Warnock will win by 10+ Points. The Question is when will the Race be called. My guess between 8 and 9pm ET!

So basically a Chambliss vs. Martin 2008 situation? If Republican turnout is way down, it could happen, but I’d think a high single-digit win is closer to Warnock's realistic ceiling, and I’m not sure I’d even bet on that. Don’t really get why people are so confident here.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Current estimates for votes cast today are around 1.1-1.3 million.

https://twitter.com/rahulbali/status/1600215832847450112?s=20&t=bnz4ulqGgxQJ...

That would imply the Early Vote makes up 59-63% of the total vote. It was 64% in November, so it will be proportionally less this time, but OTOH the people who did vote early seem more Dem-friendly demographically, so it's probably a wash in terms of impact.

[Nyvin]

Warnock will win by 10+ Points. The Question is when will the Race be called. My guess between 8 and 9pm ET!

10% seems high, I'd say the max is somewhere around 5-7%.

The Republican's floor in Georgia is still absolutely rock solid.

[Gracile]

Walker will still have a high floor of support just due to the nature of Georgia's electorate, even if Republican turnout is down.

[2016]

Warnock will win by 10+ Points. The Question is when will the Race be called. My guess between 8 and 9pm ET!

So basically a Chambliss vs. Martin 2008 situation? If Republican turnout is way down, it could happen, but I’d think a high single-digit win is closer to Warnock's realistic ceiling, and I’m not sure I’d even bet on that. Don’t really get why people are so confident here.

Camden County which went +33 Walker in November only has about 4K People Voting through 2pm. Walker needs to be closer to 9K to have any chance at all.

Camden County suggest Republican Turnout WAAAY DOWN!

[Xing]

Warnock will win by 10+ Points. The Question is when will the Race be called. My guess between 8 and 9pm ET!

So basically a Chambliss vs. Martin 2008 situation? If Republican turnout is way down, it could happen, but I’d think a high single-digit win is closer to Warnock's realistic ceiling, and I’m not sure I’d even bet on that. Don’t really get why people are so confident here.

I mean, it’s Atlas, what do you expect?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1600218290252820480

[Horus]

Warnock will win by 10+ Points. The Question is when will the Race be called. My guess between 8 and 9pm ET!

So basically a Chambliss vs. Martin 2008 situation? If Republican turnout is way down, it could happen, but I’d think a high single-digit win is closer to Warnock's realistic ceiling, and I’m not sure I’d even bet on that. Don’t really get why people are so confident here.

Camden County which went +33 Walker in November only has about 4K People Voting through 2pm. Walker needs to be closer to 9K to have any chance at all.

Camden County suggest Republican Turnout WAAAY DOWN!

If that's true Walker is done. This county is full of white seniors, pretty much an extension of the Jacksonville metro. It's basically Florida.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I had to run a couple errands and my route took me past three polling places in western Forsyth County.  Two had parking lots that were almost empty, while the third had a few cars but no line outside. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1600214299619622912

[Ferguson97]

Word on the ground is there has been high turnout of both werewolves and vampires.

Fortunate for Republicans that the full moon is tomorrow and not tonight. All of the werewolves will be able to get to the polls without having to worry about transforming while on line.

[MT Treasurer]

Warnock will win by 10+ Points. The Question is when will the Race be called. My guess between 8 and 9pm ET!

So basically a Chambliss vs. Martin 2008 situation? If Republican turnout is way down, it could happen, but I’d think a high single-digit win is closer to Warnock's realistic ceiling, and I’m not sure I’d even bet on that. Don’t really get why people are so confident here.

Camden County which went +33 Walker in November only has about 4K People Voting through 2pm. Walker needs to be closer to 9K to have any chance at all.

Camden County suggest Republican Turnout WAAAY DOWN!

That’s most likely bad news for Walker, but also just a snapshot of a single county at a particular time. How many votes were cast early? How many remaining votes will be cast? If you know the answers to those two questions, it’ll be a lot more indicative.

I’m not denying that this election is an uphill battle for the GOP or that Warnock could win in a rout, but I wouldn’t call it yet.

It would also be helpful if you provided a source for your claims, especially turnout reports, which tend to be deliberately selective to feed a particular narrative.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Warnock will win by 10+ Points. The Question is when will the Race be called. My guess between 8 and 9pm ET!

This is the only time I can ever recall seeing you make a prediction that is more Dem friendly than the conventional wisdom.

Why now?

Is it because you have dumped Trump for DeSantis and you figure if Walker loses badly it will reflect poorly on Trump and ultimately help DeSantis?