2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[wbrocks67]

Err, are we 100% sure about Arizona here? Biden's lead has been shrinking for a while now.

Wasn't that bc E-day vote was coming in?

[wbrocks67]

FWIW, the PA exit poll for FOX/AP also points to a Biden 2-4 pt win too. The CNN one had Biden +4

[wbrocks67]

Susan survives !

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1324051536620720132?s=19

Ugh. Well, you can at least count on Collins and Murkowski going rogue on legislation votes.

I really don't get people's thinking. At all. If you want a President Biden, which Maine did, you're not going to get anything out of it with a Senator Collins.

[wbrocks67]

Did Illinois shift right or is there just a lot of VBM out?

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/DrPaulGosar/status/1324028306916700161?s=19

This... isn't true? There's a ton incoming from Maricopa and Pima and Biden is up nearly 100K.

[wbrocks67]

Can someone explain to me wtf happened in Minnesota? Looks like Biden trounced Trump yet the GOP held the state senate. Why are Americans like this

It's like people really fell for the "check" system or something. Especially with the House races.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/1324051343057801219?s=19

This isn't correct. Most of the mail in ballots are majority Biden/Hillary counties and mail ballots in general, even from Red counties, skewed more Dem.

[wbrocks67]

I think people may be underestimating North Carolina - really depends on how many ballots are out. They said 200k+ right now, and that doesn't include any that arrive until 11/12...

[wbrocks67]

Why is nobody talking about Arizona?

I am starting to get nervous. There's another 400-500k votes out there, 350k of which is in Pima and Maricopa. They're largely late mail ballots and mail ballots dropped off on Election Day (all other ED vote is counted).

The mystery is do they break like ED vote (which was 2-1 Trump) or a little closer to the early vote (where Biden had a high single/low double digit lead in the initial EV dump). If it's ED vote, it will be NERVE-WRACKING, and Trump could do it. If it's somewhere in the middle, it's better for Biden.

Why would these mail in ballots become magically better for Trump when that hasn’t been true for anywhere so far

Because almost everyone in AZ is on the Permanent Early Vote List, so if you're a Trump voter, you might have just gotten your ballot, filled it out and dropped it off on Election Day -- the ED vote was huge for him here and doesn't include these ballot drop offs. In which case these ballots may be scary for us. It's an if, but don't expect this to be like Sinema gaining votes in 2018. It's basically the reverse situation.

But that seems to be an more of a hypothetical of how possible voters might of acted then anything really data based

It is data based.

We know the following:

1) The EV returns got more Republican in Party Reg the closer we got to Election Day
2) The Election Day vote in AZ was 2-1 for Trump

So, it's safe to assume this vote will be more favorable to Trump than the earlier mail ballots. Just comes down to margins.

And how Indies voted. They made up a large chunk of it as well.

[wbrocks67]

Arizona was called.

Where?

by Fox and the AP. I would've expected them to retract it by now if they thought it was in danger.

[wbrocks67]

PA update:

176K left in Allegheny
167K left in Philly
68k left in Bucks
62K left in Montco
59k left in Chester
29K left in Delco
20K in Lancaster
20K in Luzerne
13k in Berks

https://twitter.com/JoeHoldenCBS3/status/1324065334115110917

If Allegheny (81%) and Philly (93%) keep going as they've been going, that should net Biden nearly 300K alone.

These #s also appear to be fluid with late arriving ballots. Earlier, Montco was down to 54K but now it's up to 62K

[wbrocks67]

It's possible but will still be difficult because R crossover in Maricopa county has generally been higher than D crossover and Indies leaned D this year.

So it's possible

Yep, per CNN exits, Biden winning Indies by 13% and 10% of Rs in AZ (compared to Trumps 3% of Dems)

[wbrocks67]

Probably a stupid question but asking it because I haven't been able to pay as much attention today as I'd wanted to: when will we likely see the Presidency called? Sometime today? Tomorrow? Friday? December?

What's the likely timetable from here on out, & how will potential court cases & recounts factor into said timetable?

Friday will be the latest if it all comes down to votes in PA.

Yep, though Saturday possibly, depending on how fast they count any remaining ballots that get in as of 5pm Friday

[wbrocks67]

PA update:

176K left in Allegheny
167K left in Philly
68k left in Bucks
62K left in Montco
59k left in Chester
29K left in Delco
20K in Lancaster
20K in Luzerne
13k in Berks

https://twitter.com/JoeHoldenCBS3/status/1324065334115110917

If Allegheny (81%) and Philly (93%) keep going as they've been going, that should net Biden nearly 300K alone.

These #s also appear to be fluid with late arriving ballots. Earlier, Montco was down to 54K but now it's up to 62K

To further this, if things are going the way they have gone,

Biden is down 454K in PA right now. Allegheny and Philly will likely net about 300K for him. Montco and Chester will likely net about 95-100K for him. That’s 400K right there. Then we still have Bucks (70k) and Delco (29K) which could net him like 50-60. That’s 450K right there. Not sure what’s out in Erie and Lehigh, but those likely lean Biden too, as well as Berks.

This also doesn't include any ballots that continue to come in as of Friday

[wbrocks67]

Should we be worried about NV? What’s going on there?

AZ seems more concerning than NV at this point, the remaining vote sounds very Trump favorable.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324070507168358402

It would have to be overwhelmingly R though to turn Biden's 100K lead though

[wbrocks67]

Would be great if Michigan could count Detroit...

[wbrocks67]

Allegheny could really be a big coup for Biden. Hillary only won it by 16 in 2016. Biden is up 11 and that doesn't even include ~170K mail ins

[wbrocks67]

Has anyone reverted their call on Arizona?

No, which makes me think they expect Biden to still win

[wbrocks67]

13K mail ins left in Berks County, PA. It was Trump +10 in 2016. Trump +8.5 right now. Could narrow to Trump +6-8 with final mail ins. Trump can't afford to be losing vote from 2016 in places like Berks.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah New York is going to have a huge blue shift, just look at earlier elections this year.

yeah... do people realize there is like 1.5-2M more ballots to be counted in NY at least

[wbrocks67]

Part of me makes me think Biden wins Az, that's why AP or Fox havent retracted their call

I just don’t see how Trump possibly makes up a 3.5 point and 100k vote margin in AZ. It’s pure speculation that the “late early vote” will favor Trump (it has not in recent years at all) and even if it does, it would have to do so SIGNIFICANTLY to close the gap. I see why it was called given that.

and given that they are all mail ballots, and not Election Day.

[wbrocks67]

Is Nassau, NY really going Trump? Ngl that came out of nowhere.

New York still has a lot to count.

[wbrocks67]

Sprinkling of random vote in from PA. Trump lead now to just over 400K (was 460K just about an hour ago)

[wbrocks67]

Possible complications in GA:

https://twitter.com/GilForGeorgia/status/1324018963999821824?s=20

Are these included in the "outstanding vote to count" stats or are they in addition to it?  The former and Trump wins, the latter and Biden is almost a sure thing.  

I think your signature goes on the outside of the envelope, so I think those ballots would have been rejected before getting sorted and prepped for counting.

If that's the case, that would be very good for Biden.

[wbrocks67]

Wow. 20K new batch from Bucks County and it is 78% Biden, 22% Trump.

Before: Bucks (300k): Trump 53.2%, Biden 45.5% (Trump +7.7)
After: Bucks (320k): Trump 51.2%, Biden 47.5% (Trump +3.7)

Nearly 60K mail ins still to be counted in Bucks.
https://twitter.com/GeorgeSolis/status/1324011661200601088