Census population estimates 2011-2019

[Tender Branson]

Question:

The 2020 Census is done on April 1, 2020 (and slightly before and after that).

But the results + apportionment of CD's and EV's are only announced in December 2020.

So, are the new EV numbers already used for the 2020 Presidential election, or only for 2024 ?

[Tender Branson]

Question:

The 2020 Census is done on April 1, 2020 (and slightly before and after that).

But the results + apportionment of CD's and EV's are only announced in December 2020.

So, are the new EV numbers already used for the 2020 Presidential election, or only for 2024 ?

The next apportionment comes out after the 2020 election, so it will first be used in the 2022 off-year election and the presidential election of 2024.

Interesting, thanks.

If they'd release the numbers 2 months earlier, they could already use the newly apportioned EV for the 2020 Presidential Election, instead of waiting 4 years.

But I guess calculating the results from the Census takes some time ...

[Tender Branson]

Could NC pass GA in the next few years in population?

Pretty unlikely.

They are having virtually the same growth.

[Tender Branson]

Update:

The new estimates for Mid-2017 are out in 4 weeks.

Based on preliminary CDC data of births and deaths, the US population growth rate likely dropped to the lowest level on record last year ... => 0.6%

(Not even in the 1930s was population growth so low, but there were no annual estimates back then. Only a decade-long growth rate of 7.5%)

Why ?

Births between July 2016 and June 2017 were only at 3.884 million (vs. 3.976 million in the year before).

Deaths between July 2016 and June 2017 were up at 2.780 million (vs. 2.721 million in the year before).

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm

So, the natural increase decreased from 1.255 million between 2015-16 to just 1.104 million between 2016-17.

It is likely that the immigration balance is also down slightly from the +1 million in 2015-16, so the population likely increased by about 2 million people (maybe 2.1 million if immigration levels remain stable).

[Tender Branson]

Update:

The new estimates for Mid-2017 are out in 4 weeks.

Deaths between July 2016 and June 2017 were up at 2.780 million (vs. 2.721 million in the year before).

The earliest baby boomers are now 72. Their death rate is 9.1% higher than a year earlier. They and their younger siblings are driving the 2.2% overall increase in the death rate.

Yes, this might be a reason.

Also:

Traditionally, some states have already released their own estimates for 2017 and it seems the high growth rates on the West Coast are very stable (WA had 1.7%, OR 1.6% and CA 0.9%) - while CO is also at 1.7%

FL is projected at +335.000, or +1.7% (like the year before).

Metro Atlanta increased by 80.000 people to April 2017, the highest level since before the 2008 recession.

On the other hand, WI's growth is down from 30.000 to about 8.000 within a year - suggesting an increased trend of stagnant/declining population in the Rust Belt/Northeast, with more and more people moving to the South and West Coast + the Mountain West.

[Tender Branson]

A new study estimates that some 470.000 Puerto Ricans have left the island after the hurricane there, with 215.000 heading to Florida (and a sizeable amount to NY of course).

These numbers won't show up in the new release out soon, because the data will be for July 1, 2017 and the hurricane was after that.

But FL should get a significant bump for the 2018 estimates, probably some 350-500K growth (or more than 2%).

NY should be lifted out of stagnation next year, before falling back into stagnation/decline.

http://miami.cbslocal.com/2017/12/05/puerto-rico-immigration-hurricane-maria/

[Tender Branson]

Isn't Washington State also growing rapidly?

Yes, but not because of Puerto Ricans.

(by 1.8% to April 2017 according to their own state estimates.)

Also, UT has released their state estimates recently: +1.9% to July 2017, which is roughly the same growth as the year before.

[Tender Branson]

The international immigration surplus to the US was actually 1.1 million to July 2017 (up from less than 1 million in the year before), which is surprising considering Trump's harsh anti-immigrant policies.

When it comes to domestic migration patterns, the top-10 states with the highest domestic migration gains (excl. international migration) are:

FL (by far), TX, NC, WA, AZ, SC, GA, TN, NV and OR.

While NY, CA and IL have by far the largest domestic migration losses.

CA and NY have also the biggest international migration surplus, so this balances their huge domestic losses to other states.

2 states (ME and WV) had more deaths than births last year. CA and TX had the biggest birth surplus.

[Tender Branson]

http://www.citypopulation.de/USA.html

... has updated with the new 2017 data for states, counties, metros, cities/towns and clickable maps !

[Tender Branson]

The 10 states that had the highest domestic migration surpluses (= intra-US movements between the states) between 2017 and 2018:

FL +133K
AZ +83K
TX +83K
NC +67K
SC +51K
NV +48K
WA +47K
CO +43K
GA +42K
TN +40K

... and the biggest net losses:

NY -180K
CA -156K
PR -123K
IL -114K
NJ -51K
LA -28K
MA -26K
MD -25K
CT -22K
PA -21K
MI -17K

Puerto Rico lost 4% of its population last year (a record) and that was not only because of out-migration (-123K people), but also because a -7K death surplus. A loss of 130K people in total.

Since the Census 2000, more than 1 million Puerto Ricans have left the island - or about 1/4 of the population ...

[Tender Branson]

The 10 states that had the highest domestic migration surpluses (= intra-US movements between the states) between 2017 and 2018:

FL +133K
AZ +83K
TX +83K
NC +67K
SC +51K
NV +48K
WA +47K
CO +43K
GA +42K
TN +40K

... and the biggest net losses:

NY -180K
CA -156K
PR -123K
IL -114K
NJ -51K
LA -28K
MA -26K
MD -25K
CT -22K
PA -21K
MI -17K

Puerto Rico lost 4% of its population last year (a record) and that was not only because of out-migration (-123K people), but also because a -7K death surplus. A loss of 130K people in total.

Since the Census 2000, more than 1 million Puerto Ricans have left the island - or about 1/4 of the population ...

Please cite your original source.  Paraphrasing data still needs a citation.  I suspect you are possesive of your data sources.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-kits/2018/pop-estimates-national-state.html

Table 5, sorted by "domestic".

[Tender Branson]

Anybody have a handy link to how far off the final Census estimates were last decade vs the actual census in 2010 by state?  Of course with the caveat that past results don't equal future performance.

I had them once for all states, but the charts seem to have been deleted by imageschak:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=128464.msg2755003#msg2755003

[Tender Branson]

Anybody have a handy link to how far off the final Census estimates were last decade vs the actual census in 2010 by state?  Of course with the caveat that past results don't equal future performance.

Here is the good stuff:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=128464.msg2762803#msg2762803

[Tender Branson]

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[Tender Branson]

Some states like FL and WA have released their own estimates for April 1, 2019 already.

Florida has grown by 368.000 people to 21.209.000 this year, or by 1.8% - which is up from 1.7% the year before (+357.000 people).

Link

Washington has grown by 119.000 people to 7.546.000 this year, or by 1.6% - which is unchanged from the year before (+117.000 people).

Link

[Tender Branson]

The mid-2019 estimates will be released on December 19.

Link

[Tender Branson]

AZs own mid-2019 estimate:

+112.000 or +1.6%

Link

[Tender Branson]

UT:

+54.000, or +1.7%

Link

[Tender Branson]

In the new release today, CA only grew by 0.3% last year, the lowest population growth rate since 1900:

http://www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Demographics/Estimates/E-2/documents/PressReleaseJuly2019.pdf

200.000 more Californians left for other states than moved into the state last year ... (this was compensated by an international immigration surplus and of course a birth surplus).

[Tender Branson]

In the new release today, CA only grew by 0.3% last year, the lowest population growth rate since 1900:

http://www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Demographics/Estimates/E-2/documents/PressReleaseJuly2019.pdf

200.000 more Californians left for other states than moved into the state last year ... (this was compensated by an international immigration surplus and of course a birth surplus).

Tragic. And it's all due to dumb late 20th century zoning laws. If these hadn't been passed and CA kept growing at its pre 1985 clip, we would have 50 million people already.

Ehhh, this is a good development in fact.

Population growth largely sucks and leads to the destruction of CA and the planet.

Stop being such a growth fetishist.

[Tender Branson]

In the new release today, CA only grew by 0.3% last year, the lowest population growth rate since 1900:

http://www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Demographics/Estimates/E-2/documents/PressReleaseJuly2019.pdf

200.000 more Californians left for other states than moved into the state last year ... (this was compensated by an international immigration surplus and of course a birth surplus).

Tragic. And it's all due to dumb late 20th century zoning laws. If these hadn't been passed and CA kept growing at its pre 1985 clip, we would have 50 million people already.

Ehhh, this is a good development in fact.

Population growth largely sucks and leads to the destruction of CA and the planet.

Stop being such a growth fetishist.

Lol no. People are either going to like in California or somewhere else, and I'd rather see them here. Besides, more people in places like CA and fewer in places like TX is good for the planet, and CA can brkng down its total emissions with growth because increased population density will reduce our dependence on automobiles and so on. CA has only gotten better with growth, and it will continue to do so. The key is to minimize sprawl and resource use, not growth. Furthermore, any socially responsible person supports population growth in the west even if they want the world's population to shrink. We're simply more equipped to handle a billion people than India or sub Saharan Africa. It's racist to think otherwise.

Growth fetishists like you don’t understand that capitalism and (population) growth cannot go hand in hand with resource limitations ... that’s only treating the symptoms, but not the illness itself. You have to bring (population) growth to zero or make it decline like Japan to stop emissions, global natural exploitation and destruction.