Census population estimates 2011-2019

[Tender Branson]

In addition to FL breaking 20 million, let's see how my estimates turned out:

Also, NC will break 10 Mio. people for the first time. TRUE

AZ will overtake MA. TRUE

TN could overtake IN, but probably not this year but next. TRUE (next year)

MD will break 6 Mio. people for the first time. TRUE

SC will overtake AL. TRUE

OR will break 4 Mio. people for the first time. TRUE

MS and AR might break 3 Mio. people for the first time (but it's more likely that UT does before them). Semi-true: MS and AR did not break 3 million, but UT overtook them with 2.996 million and definitely is above 3 million already.

NH could pass ME. TRUE

Puerto Rico could drop below 3.5 Mio. people. TRUE

[Tender Branson]

Here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used the July 2015 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 5 and a quarter year period between the Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting. Ten years is a long stretch for a simple model like this, but here are the projected changes.

AL -1
AZ +1
CA +1
CO +1
FL +1
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

There a number of changes since my projections last year. AL is down, AZ is up, OR is up and VA isn't up. The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are CA-53, TX-39, OR-6, CA-54, and AZ-10 (#435).
The next five in line are FL-29, AL-7, VA-12, NY-27, MT-3.

So, Obama-states are projected to lose 7 EV (IL, MI, MN, NY, OH, PA, RI) - while gaining 4 (CA, CO, FL, OR) - for a net loss of 3 EV.

Romney-states gain 5 (3TX, AZ, NC), while losing 2 (AL, WV) - for a net gain of 3 EV.

[Tender Branson]

The national and state "components of population change" are also interesting:

The US had 3.986 million births last year and 2.625 million deaths (natural increase = 1.361 million).

It also had an international migration surplus of 1.151 million - for a total growth of 2.512 million people (+0.8%).

That means ca. 54% of the population growth came from natural increase and 46% from a migration gain.

...

Looking at the states, CA/NY/FL/TX/NJ were the biggest magnets for international migrants - while basically no person from abroad moved to WY/MT/VT/WV/ME.

The 10 states with the biggest domestic migration (= people moving between the states) gains were FL, TX, CO, AZ, SC, WA, NC, OR, GA and NV.

The 10 states with the biggest domestic migration losses were NY, IL, CA, NJ, PA, MI, OH, CT, MD and VA.

Only 2 states had more deaths than births: WV and ME.

Puerto Rico's population dropped by more than 60.000 people (or 1.7%)

[Tender Branson]

Also, what has not been mentioned so far:

North Dakota actually remained the fastest-growing state between 2014-15, despite the downturn in the oil/gas sector in the past year.

ND grew by 2.3%, followed by CO/DC/NV (each +1.9%)

[Tender Branson]

And not only that: ND also had the biggest domestic migration gains (= most people moving into a state from other states) per capita last year.

ND gained 10.000 people from other states in the past year - giving it a 13.2/1000 net domestic migration gain.

FL and CO followed far behind with 10/1000.

The state with the worst loss (= most people moving away to other states) was actually Alaska - which had almost 8.000 people leaving for other states and giving the state a -10.4/1000 net domestic migration loss.

[Tender Branson]

Also, does anyone know why VA turned from a magnet for US citizens from other states between 2000-2010 to being in the top-10 of states with the most Americans leaving to other states ?

[Tender Branson]

Also, what's with New Mexico ?

It even lost population last year, while most western states saw high growth - even the Plain states did better than NM.

[Tender Branson]

Here's a map of states which have all 3 factors:

A) a natural increase (more births than deaths)
B) a positive international migration balance
C) a positive domestic migration balance (more people coming from other states than moving out)

[Tender Branson]

Any reason why Hawaii has a net negative domestic migration ?

I always thought HI is a magnet for mainland Americans to move to and retire or buy property, but it actually seems way more Americans are leaving HI for the mainland ...

[Tender Branson]

I just realized that the 2014 estimates were slightly different for the states.  Did the revision occur with the release of the 2015 estimates, or was there some sort of interim revision?

Old estimates are always revised when the new numbers come out.

Also, after each 10-year Census the intercensal estimates are revised based on the new Census numbers.

[Tender Branson]

New mid-2016 population estimates are out next Tuesday for the US, the states, DC and Puerto Rico as well as the voting-age estimates for each state and demographic changes over the past year (births, deaths, migration balances - which includes international and domestic migration estimates for each state).

Something to look at:

* CO will overtake MN in terms of total population
* PA could overtake IL, but that's very unlikely (more likely in 2017)
* NJ could hit 9 million (also unlikely => 2017)
* TN will overtake IN's population
* UT will definitely pass the 3 million
* AR could hit 3 million too (but much more likely that it will be in 2017)
* NV will overtake KS

---

* TX will remain the state with the biggest numerical gain (+450k)
* FL and CA will follow with +350k each
* WA might actually become the 4th fastest growing state numerically
* GA and NC still have steady high growth (+130K each)
* CO and AZ will be around +100K each
* OR probably picked up some speed (+70K)
* The 10th slot will go to SC (+65K)

---

In terms of % growth, a couple states will match themselves for 1st place because I guess ND's growth will fall back a bit to 1.5%

CO, NV, FL, UT, TX and DC are likely to grow between 1.7 and 2% each.

Hard to say who comes out on top ...

---

In general, births in the US dropped by 1% last year while deaths increased by 3.5% - resulting in a lower natural increase.

The big unknown is the immigration balance.

In general I believe the US population is up a bit less than last year (2.45 million vs. 2.51 million), but if the migration surplus was higher that could also change.

[Tender Branson]

My estimates for the TOP-10 states:

CA: 39.52 million (+380k) +1.0%
TX: 27.98 million (+510k) +1.8%
FL: 20.65 million (+380k) +1.8%
NY: 19.84 million (+ 45k) +0.2%
IL: 12.83 million  (- 30k) -0.2%
PA: 12.82 million  (+12k) +0.1%
OH: 11.63 million (+16k) +0.1%
GA: 10.35 million (+135k) +1.3%
NC: 10.16 million (+117k) +1.1%

[Tender Branson]

I don't see a total collapse in ND.

Maybe down to +1% from the previous year's 2% (when it was still the fastest growing state in the US, even though oil prices already went down).

ND still has much more births than deaths and some people are still moving there, so probably no total collapse ...

[Tender Branson]

I don't see a total collapse in ND.

Maybe down to +1% from the previous year's 2% (when it was still the fastest growing state in the US, even though oil prices already went down).

ND still has much more births than deaths and some people are still moving there, so probably no total collapse ...

They'll take their children with them when they move.

Probably a silly thing for me to post ... but some families may stay put and wait for higher oil prices rather than moving out of the state. Some might also have moved to bigger ND cities who are less dependent on oil and gas in the meantime ...

[Tender Branson]

Surprised that PA might overtake IL. Is all this growth in urban areas?

Mostly, yes.

And the suburban areas in the South-East.

The areas which swung heavily to Trump are losing population fast. The light-blue areas and the red ones, which swung slightly to Hillary, are having modest population gains:



citypopulation.de has a nice clickable map of population changes by county:

https://www.citypopulation.de/php/usa-census-admin.php

[Tender Branson]

This will be interesting to see who's right ...

I'm still predicting some 0.8% to 1.5% growth for ND between 7/2015 and 7/2016.

Do we have any other indicator of people moving out of ND over the past year other than the fall of oil rigs ?

Did the overall ND economy collapse last year and in the first half of 2016 ?

[Tender Branson]

ND down to 0.1% growth, from 2.3% in the previous year.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting that NY lost population ...

[Tender Branson]

FL now has a higher domestic migration gain than TX ...

And NY has the worst domestic migration loss of all states (almost 200K people last year).

[Tender Branson]

As a percentage of the state's population, OR had the biggest domestic migration gain of all states.

NY once again the worst loss.

When it comes to international migration though, DC, MA and NY had the biggest gains - MT had the smallest international gain.

When both domestic and international migration are combined, the results show that FL, NV and OR had the biggest gains, while WY, IL and ND had the biggest losses.

[Tender Branson]

UT and ND had the highest birth rates last year, NH and ME the lowest.

UT also had the lowest death rate, WV the highest.

[Tender Branson]

Despite ND's economic collapse over the past year, 3 states actually had a higher domestic outmigration rate than ND:

NY
IL
CT

[Tender Branson]

Based on muon's model, states won by Trump would gain 2 EV after the 2020 Census, while Hillary states would lose 2.

Using Obama 2012, Obama states would lose 3, Romney states gain 3.

[Tender Branson]

States with high population growth mostly trended to Hillary, while virtually all states that lost population last year (except IL) trended to Trump.

That is pretty similar to Austria: In regions with high population growth, the Green VdB did well - but (periphery) regions with slow growth or losses voted for Hofer.

[Tender Branson]

If Austria were a US state, it would:

* be the 12th biggest state (after NJ - with 8.78 million people)
* have the 5th highest numerical population increase (after TX, FL, CA and WA - at 116.000 people)
* have the 11th highest percentage population growth (tied with SC at 1.35%)
* have the 4th lowest birth rate (9.9/1000, after NH, ME and VT)
* rank 21st when it comes to the death rate (9.0/1000)
* have the 4th highest migration surplus (tied with WA)
* have the highest international migration surplus