Census population estimates 2011-2019

[Tender Branson]

Some states like FL and WA have released their own estimates for April 1, 2019 already.

Florida has grown by 368.000 people to 21.209.000 this year, or by 1.8% - which is up from 1.7% the year before (+357.000 people).

Link

Washington has grown by 119.000 people to 7.546.000 this year, or by 1.6% - which is unchanged from the year before (+117.000 people).

Link

[Tender Branson]

The mid-2019 estimates will be released on December 19.

Link

[cinyc]

The mid-2019 estimates will be released on December 19.

Link

When is the 2014-18 5-year ACS coming out? The following Thursday?

[cinyc]

The mid-2019 estimates will be released on December 19.

Link

The link now says December 30. The 2014-18 5-year ACS will be released on the 19th.

[Tender Branson]

AZs own mid-2019 estimate:

+112.000 or +1.6%

Link

[Tender Branson]

UT:

+54.000, or +1.7%

Link

[Tender Branson]

In the new release today, CA only grew by 0.3% last year, the lowest population growth rate since 1900:

http://www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Demographics/Estimates/E-2/documents/PressReleaseJuly2019.pdf

200.000 more Californians left for other states than moved into the state last year ... (this was compensated by an international immigration surplus and of course a birth surplus).

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

In the new release today, CA only grew by 0.3% last year, the lowest population growth rate since 1900:

http://www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Demographics/Estimates/E-2/documents/PressReleaseJuly2019.pdf

200.000 more Californians left for other states than moved into the state last year ... (this was compensated by an international immigration surplus and of course a birth surplus).

Tragic. And it's all due to dumb late 20th century zoning laws. If these hadn't been passed and CA kept growing at its pre 1985 clip, we would have 50 million people already.

[Tender Branson]

In the new release today, CA only grew by 0.3% last year, the lowest population growth rate since 1900:

http://www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Demographics/Estimates/E-2/documents/PressReleaseJuly2019.pdf

200.000 more Californians left for other states than moved into the state last year ... (this was compensated by an international immigration surplus and of course a birth surplus).

Tragic. And it's all due to dumb late 20th century zoning laws. If these hadn't been passed and CA kept growing at its pre 1985 clip, we would have 50 million people already.

Ehhh, this is a good development in fact.

Population growth largely sucks and leads to the destruction of CA and the planet.

Stop being such a growth fetishist.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

In the new release today, CA only grew by 0.3% last year, the lowest population growth rate since 1900:

http://www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Demographics/Estimates/E-2/documents/PressReleaseJuly2019.pdf

200.000 more Californians left for other states than moved into the state last year ... (this was compensated by an international immigration surplus and of course a birth surplus).

Tragic. And it's all due to dumb late 20th century zoning laws. If these hadn't been passed and CA kept growing at its pre 1985 clip, we would have 50 million people already.

Ehhh, this is a good development in fact.

Population growth largely sucks and leads to the destruction of CA and the planet.

Stop being such a growth fetishist.

Lol no. People are either going to like in California or somewhere else, and I'd rather see them here. Besides, more people in places like CA and fewer in places like TX is good for the planet, and CA can brkng down its total emissions with growth because increased population density will reduce our dependence on automobiles and so on. CA has only gotten better with growth, and it will continue to do so. The key is to minimize sprawl and resource use, not growth. Furthermore, any socially responsible person supports population growth in the west even if they want the world's population to shrink. We're simply more equipped to handle a billion people than India or sub Saharan Africa. It's racist to think otherwise.

[Tender Branson]

In the new release today, CA only grew by 0.3% last year, the lowest population growth rate since 1900:

http://www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Demographics/Estimates/E-2/documents/PressReleaseJuly2019.pdf

200.000 more Californians left for other states than moved into the state last year ... (this was compensated by an international immigration surplus and of course a birth surplus).

Tragic. And it's all due to dumb late 20th century zoning laws. If these hadn't been passed and CA kept growing at its pre 1985 clip, we would have 50 million people already.

Ehhh, this is a good development in fact.

Population growth largely sucks and leads to the destruction of CA and the planet.

Stop being such a growth fetishist.

Lol no. People are either going to like in California or somewhere else, and I'd rather see them here. Besides, more people in places like CA and fewer in places like TX is good for the planet, and CA can brkng down its total emissions with growth because increased population density will reduce our dependence on automobiles and so on. CA has only gotten better with growth, and it will continue to do so. The key is to minimize sprawl and resource use, not growth. Furthermore, any socially responsible person supports population growth in the west even if they want the world's population to shrink. We're simply more equipped to handle a billion people than India or sub Saharan Africa. It's racist to think otherwise.

Growth fetishists like you don’t understand that capitalism and (population) growth cannot go hand in hand with resource limitations ... that’s only treating the symptoms, but not the illness itself. You have to bring (population) growth to zero or make it decline like Japan to stop emissions, global natural exploitation and destruction.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The problem is Prop. 13. Younger people are sick of subsidizing ungrateful older rich people's property taxes.

[Lord Halifax]

In the new release today, CA only grew by 0.3% last year, the lowest population growth rate since 1900:

http://www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Demographics/Estimates/E-2/documents/PressReleaseJuly2019.pdf

200.000 more Californians left for other states than moved into the state last year ... (this was compensated by an international immigration surplus and of course a birth surplus).

Tragic. And it's all due to dumb late 20th century zoning laws. If these hadn't been passed and CA kept growing at its pre 1985 clip, we would have 50 million people already.

Ehhh, this is a good development in fact.

Population growth largely sucks and leads to the destruction of CA and the planet.

Stop being such a growth fetishist.

Lol no. People are either going to like in California or somewhere else, and I'd rather see them here. Besides, more people in places like CA and fewer in places like TX is good for the planet, and CA can bring down its total emissions with growth because increased population density will reduce our dependence on automobiles and so on. CA has only gotten better with growth, and it will continue to do so. The key is to minimize sprawl and resource use, not growth. Furthermore, any socially responsible person supports population growth in the west even if they want the world's population to shrink. We're simply more equipped to handle a billion people than India or sub Saharan Africa. It's racist to think otherwise.

The Western lifestyle is extremely resource consuming (if you want to lower global CO2 and methane emissions the last thing you want is more Americans), so it's definitely not a good thing to have population growth in the West instead of Africa or India.

It's a fantasy that population growth will reduce dependency on automobiles, that aint happening in America.

[Tender Branson]

BTW, these were the mid-2018 estimates:

327,167,434

... in case there are any downward/upward revisions in the new estimates on Monday.

[cinyc]

The 7/1/19 state estimates weren't released at midnight, best I can tell. The link still says December 30, so I suspect they'll drop in the morning.

[Tender Branson]

The 7/1/19 state estimates weren't released at midnight, best I can tell. The link still says December 30, so I suspect they'll drop in the morning.

From what I remember, they are usually released after 3pm European Time (ca. 9am Eastern).

[Tender Branson]

My guess:

The US population has likely grown by slightly over/under 2 million last year (+0.6%).

It could be the first time it grew by less than 2 million in decades (don't know exactly when it was the last time it was less than 2 million).

My guess is that natural population increase was "just" 980.000, the first time below 1 million, because births declined further. But it also depends on the development of deaths: The 1st half of 2018 had an abnormally high number of deaths, but the first half of 2019 had a large drop. At least in European countries. Which means that deaths in 2018-19 could have dropped by a lot more than births dropped, creating a higher natural population growth rate.

The international immigration surplus was probably around 1 million.

But depending on immigration, anything between 1.7 million to 2.3 million growth is possible (immigration surpluses ranged from 0.7 million in 2010-11 to 1.2 million in 2014-15).

[Tender Branson]

My detailed prediction for mid-2019:

There will be a slight downward revision of the mid-2018 population base to 326.85 million.

The 2018-19 birth/death surplus was 1.03 million (largely unchanged from a year ago).

The international immigration surplus was 1.13 million (up by 150.000 from a year ago).

In total, the US population is up by 2.16 million (thanks to increased immigration from South America), or by 0.66%

My mid-2019 estimate is therefore 329.007.206 (+/- 300.000 people).

Florida, Idaho, Arizona, Utah or Nevada were probably the fastest growing states.

If I had to pick, it was probably UT.

[jimrtex]

The press embargo begins at 10:00 AM EST December 30. T"he public release should be at 12:01 AM on January 1,

Has CSPAN ever covered a New Year's Eve event?

"Its a virtual sea of pocket protectors here as the revelers await the release of the 2019 state population estimates. Lots of cans of Red Bull and Jolt being opened."

(to man in the crowd) "What do you think of this event?"
(man) "I anticipate that California will lose a representative"
(producer) "Let's stay right here. We can cut back to Times Square at 10 after midnight.

[Tender Branson]

The press embargo begins at 10:00 AM EST December 30. T"he public release should be at 12:01 AM on January 1,

Has CSPAN ever covered a New Year's Eve event?

"Its a virtual sea of pocket protectors here as the revelers await the release of the 2019 state population estimates. Lots of cans of Red Bull and Jolt being opened."

(to man in the crowd) "What do you think of this event?"
(man) "I anticipate that California will lose a representative"
(producer) "Let's stay right here. We can cut back to Times Square at 10 after midnight.

I'm pretty sure the numbers will be released in 3 hours or so.

[Tender Branson]

The population has increased by „just“ 1.55 million last year.

+0.47%

[Tender Branson]

BTW, these were the mid-2018 estimates:

327,167,434

... in case there are any downward/upward revisions in the new estimates on Monday.

The old mid-2018 estimates were revised down by about half a million to 326,687,501 and the new mid-2019 estimate is 328,239,523.

+1.552.022 people

There were 3.791.712 births and 2.835.038 deaths for a 956.674 natural increase.

Net international immigration surplus was only 595.348 - only half the 2015 and 2016 levels.

[Annatar]

I think that is the first time US growth has gone below 0.5% since the Census Bureau started tracking population estimates year to year.

Also there is a real chance now the US might not reach 330 million by time of the Census which is on April 1 2020 if the 2018-19 population growth rate is what occurs through to April 2020.

[Tender Branson]

I think that is the first time US growth has gone below 0.5% since the Census Bureau started tracking population estimates year to year.

It has never been that low.

Maybe in the 1920s or 1930s during the Economic Depression.

[Annatar]

I think that is the first time US growth has gone below 0.5% since the Census Bureau started tracking population estimates year to year.

It has never been that low.

Maybe in the 1920s or 1930s during the Economic Depression.

Well even in 1930-1940 the population grew by 0.7% per annum and I doubt it dipped below 0.5% in any year.