Census population estimates 2011-2019

[Tender Branson]

citypopulation.de out with their new, sortable 2010-19 maps/tables for states + cities + counties + CSAs:

Click on the arrow/dots on the left of the map to get growth/decline rates + population density.

States + cities: https://www.citypopulation.de/en/usa/cities/

Counties: https://www.citypopulation.de/en/usa/admin/

CSAs (metro areas): https://www.citypopulation.de/en/usa/combmetro/

[Tender Branson]

Hmm. DC-Baltimore is definitely passing Chicago next year and San Francisco-San Jose should pass Chicago by 2022 at the latest. Weird seeing Chicago slip from 3rd to 5th place so fast.

Both the DC-Baltimore and San Francisco Metro areas will pass Chicagoland pretty soon (they grow at 0.8% per year while Chicago is flat).

All 3 will have ca. 10 million people by 2022.

But Chicago is the more densely populated of the 3: the metro area has 27.500 square km, while DC-Baltimore has 33.000 and the Bay Area 35.000

For comparison: London has 9 million people, but only 1.600 square kilometers ...

[Tender Branson]

So, Trump states would gain a net of 4 EV, Biden states would lose 4.

[Tender Branson]

What does everyone think the latest estimate for California means:

[tweet]

Are these estimates usually accurate?

CA produces its own estimates 2x per year, by their Dept. of Finance.

They use different methods, for example drivers licenses, whereas the US Census Bureau uses tax data for migrations between the 50 states.

Historically, the US Census Bureau estimates were closer to the Census Count. Last time, the CA Dept. of Finance estimates were about 1.5 million too high.

This time, the estimates from the CB for CA and their own DOF estmimates are not that far apart though ...

[Tender Branson]

Here are the full mid-2020 population estimates by state, released today:

329.5 million (+1.2 million vs. last year, +0.4%)

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/tables/2010-2020/state/totals/nst-est2020.xlsx

Based on those estimates, the April 1 Census count should come in at around 329.2 million.

[Tender Branson]

Normally the Census would be releasing the actual 2020 Census apportionment data next week, and not the Jul 1, 2020 estimates. Due to the expected delay in the release of the apportionment data, we can look at these estimates that do not include any 2020 Census data. It will be interesting to compare this to the actual Census population when they are released.

So, here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used these July 2020 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This accounts for a 10 and a quarter year period between the 2010 Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting (It doesn't adjust for the new distinction between deployed vs stationed).

AZ +1
CA -1
CO +1
FL +2
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
MT +1
NY -2
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

AL and NY have switched seats compared to last year, so that AL would have no change and NY would lose 2 seats. I tested the possibility that inclusion of the Covid-19 fatalities in NY between April 1 and July 1 would affect the result. I added the July 1 NY fatality count to my April 1 projection, and it made NY closer to AL but did not change the overall projection.

The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are IL-17, CA-52, FL-29, TX-39, and AL-7 (#435).
The next five in line are NY-26, OH-16, MN-8, CA-53, and VA-12.

Using your apportionment, Biden states would lose 5 EV, Trump states gain 5.

Biden would have won 301-237 (retroactively).

[Tender Branson]

IL it seems had a higher population decline last year than WV, at -80.000, or -0.7%

WV was only at -0.5%

[Tender Branson]

It looks like 3.7 million births this year in the US and 3.2 to 3.3 million deaths.

Birth rate: 1.1%
Death rate: 0.95 to 1%

That would be the lowest birth rate and the highest death rate on record, but still a natural balance of +400.000 to +500.000, but down from about 1 million in recent years and down from +1.5 million in the mid-90s to mid-00s.

[Tender Branson]

The 10 fastest growing states between mid-2019 and mid-2020 were:

2.1% ID
1.8% AZ
1.5% NV
1.5% UT
1.3% TX
1.2% SC
1.1% FL
1.1% WA
1.0% DE
1.0% MT

The 10 fastest declining states between mid-2019 and mid-2020 were:

-0.2% CA
-0.2% MI
-0.3% CT
-0.3% LA
-0.3% AK
-0.4% MS
-0.6% WV
-0.6% HI
-0.6% IL
-0.7% NY

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/estimates-population-housing-units.html

Maybe a result of wealthy NYers and preppers moving to ID and MT because they think the apocalypse is coming ?

[Tender Branson]

Fresh 2020 Census Count numbers would be out today, by law, usually.

But not this year.

The Bureau said yesterday that the deadline will not be met and while not mentioning a date of release, the new numbers will likely be out between February and April.

[Tender Branson]

Fresh 2020 Census Count numbers would be out today, by law, usually.

But not this year.

The Bureau said yesterday that the deadline will not be met and while not mentioning a date of release, the new numbers will likely be out between February and April.

Just talking for my state, there's a big problem with that.

State legislature shuts up shop for business in April, meaning if the Census doesn't release data until April, you'd have to wait until the 2022 session for the legislature to pass a bill with the new districts for federal and state. But people are required to file for primaries in January and February.

That’s really not the Census Bureau’s problem .... (They had enough on their own).

It’s Indiana’s problem.

IN and it’s legislature could also work in September, right ? Other people have to work the whole year as well and not stop in April.

[Tender Branson]

Fresh 2020 Census Count numbers would be out today, by law, usually.

But not this year.

The Bureau said yesterday that the deadline will not be met and while not mentioning a date of release, the new numbers will likely be out between February and April.

Just talking for my state, there's a big problem with that.

State legislature shuts up shop for business in April, meaning if the Census doesn't release data until April, you'd have to wait until the 2022 session for the legislature to pass a bill with the new districts for federal and state. But people are required to file for primaries in January and February.

That’s really not the Census Bureau’s problem .... (They had enough on their own).

It’s Indiana’s problem.

IN and it’s legislature could also work in September, right ? Other people have to work the whole year as well and not stop in April.

Well how it always worked in the past is the Census was released on time and they released new districts in a year that ends in 1, all complete by April.

They could have a special session later in the year to do it, but that means the state has to spend extra money not previously earmarked because the federal government bureaucrats can't meet a date of release. It's okay, we can just send the Census Bureau a bill for the costs, right?

What was the census bureau supposed to do? Do a rushed job and give the states messed up census data?

On December 31st Tender Branson stated in the census thread on page 51 that the Census Bureau said the data quality was high as he posted a press release from them saying as much. If releasing now is a rush job with messed up census data, then the press release was incredibly premature.

Why ?

They can assess data quality on what has been processed so far ...

Processing the data and quality checks take 5 months after completing the Census.

They were only ready in October this time, instead of the summer.

[Tender Branson]

Fresh 2020 Census Count numbers would be out today, by law, usually.

But not this year.

The Bureau said yesterday that the deadline will not be met and while not mentioning a date of release, the new numbers will likely be out between February and April.

Just talking for my state, there's a big problem with that.

State legislature shuts up shop for business in April, meaning if the Census doesn't release data until April, you'd have to wait until the 2022 session for the legislature to pass a bill with the new districts for federal and state. But people are required to file for primaries in January and February.

That’s really not the Census Bureau’s problem .... (They had enough on their own).

It’s Indiana’s problem.

IN and it’s legislature could also work in September, right ? Other people have to work the whole year as well and not stop in April.

Well how it always worked in the past is the Census was released on time and they released new districts in a year that ends in 1, all complete by April.

They could have a special session later in the year to do it, but that means the state has to spend extra money not previously earmarked because the federal government bureaucrats can't meet a date of release. It's okay, we can just send the Census Bureau a bill for the costs, right?

What was the census bureau supposed to do? Do a rushed job and give the states messed up census data?

On December 31st Tender Branson stated in the census thread on page 51 that the Census Bureau said the data quality was high as he posted a press release from them saying as much. If releasing now is a rush job with messed up census data, then the press release was incredibly premature.

Why ?

They can assess data quality on what has been processed so far ...

Processing the data and quality checks take 5 months after completing the Census.

They were only ready in October this time, instead of the summer.

They have faster computers, and are reducing weekend down time. More of the data is digital rather than digitized from paper forms stained with jelly and coffee and unidentified substances. They can also defer some processing, and didn't have to do the resurvey, where they essentially go back and do a census of a sample of households.

True.

But they have other problems that were not the case in 2000 or 2010, slowing down the publication of the numbers:

* ongoing sabotage attempts by Trump
* a pandemic, which cuts staff and work hours due to quarantine of staff, protection measures
* Christmas, New Year and other holidays in the fall

Processing census data in 2000 and 2010 started in the summer of those years, there were hardly any holidays.

Because data collection ended in late October this year, we can still expect 4 months of data processing despite better IT systems because of the factors above.

Mid-February to End-March looks most likely for the release.

[Tender Branson]

According to my calculations

Seat 420 is NY-25
Seat 421 is NC-14
Seat 422 is TX-38
Seat 423 is AZ-10
Seat 424 is CA-51
Seat 425 is WI-8
Seat 426 is CO-8
Seat 427 is PA-17
Seat 428 is OR-6
Seat 429 is NJ-12
Seat 430 is CA-52
Seat 431 is MT-2
Seat 432 is IL-17
Seat 433 is FL-29
Seat 434 is TX-39
Seat 435 is AL-7
----------
Seat 436 is NY-26
Seat 437 is MN-8
Seat 438 is OH-16
Seat 439 is CA-53
Seat 440 is VA-12
Seat 441 is RI-2
Seat 442 is ID-3
Seat 443 is TX-40
Seat 444 is GA-15
Seat 445 is MI-14
Seat 446 is FL-30
Seat 447 is CA-54
Seat 448 is WA-11
Seat 449 is NC-15
Seat 450 is PA-18

Idaho's third district has become a virtual certainty by 2030, and it's actually shockingly close to getting one this cycle!

Only 30k people away from getting a third seat, and this is while it gained an average of 26k people every year this decade, and also gained 35k people every year during the last five years!

I know, I was pretty shocked too when I realized how close ID had come. If somehow the estimates are way off and ID did pull an upset in 2020 and gain a 3rd seat, that would be pretty epic, though from a political standpoint, that would likely be another GOP seat. By 2030 though, a 3rd district would likely have to be Boise based.

ID had a higher self-response rate in the 2020 census than in 2010 (70% vs. 67%).

Whether this will lead to a higher counted population relative to the pre-census estimates is unknown.

If ID really gets a 3rd seat already, there should be one in and around Boise (= a Dem leaning one) because Dems regularly get 33% of the vote in ID. This would be fair.

[Tender Branson]

According to my calculations

Seat 420 is NY-25
Seat 421 is NC-14
Seat 422 is TX-38
Seat 423 is AZ-10
Seat 424 is CA-51
Seat 425 is WI-8
Seat 426 is CO-8
Seat 427 is PA-17
Seat 428 is OR-6
Seat 429 is NJ-12
Seat 430 is CA-52
Seat 431 is MT-2
Seat 432 is IL-17
Seat 433 is FL-29
Seat 434 is TX-39
Seat 435 is AL-7
----------
Seat 436 is NY-26
Seat 437 is MN-8
Seat 438 is OH-16
Seat 439 is CA-53
Seat 440 is VA-12
Seat 441 is RI-2
Seat 442 is ID-3
Seat 443 is TX-40
Seat 444 is GA-15
Seat 445 is MI-14
Seat 446 is FL-30
Seat 447 is CA-54
Seat 448 is WA-11
Seat 449 is NC-15
Seat 450 is PA-18

Idaho's third district has become a virtual certainty by 2030, and it's actually shockingly close to getting one this cycle!

Only 30k people away from getting a third seat, and this is while it gained an average of 26k people every year this decade, and also gained 35k people every year during the last five years!

I know, I was pretty shocked too when I realized how close ID had come. If somehow the estimates are way off and ID did pull an upset in 2020 and gain a 3rd seat, that would be pretty epic, though from a political standpoint, that would likely be another GOP seat. By 2030 though, a 3rd district would likely have to be Boise based.

ID had a higher self-response rate in the 2020 census than in 2010 (70% vs. 67%).

Whether this will lead to a higher counted population relative to the pre-census estimates is unknown.

If ID really gets a 3rd seat already, there should be one in and around Boise (= a Dem leaning one) because Dems regularly get 33% of the vote in ID. This would be fair.

Not really; the bluest compact seat you can get in a 3 district map (which still splits four different counties) is still Trump +10 in 2016, though it voted for the Democratic Gov. and LG candidates in 2018 by 3 and 6 points respectively.

I know.

That’s what I meant with it.

Not Dem leaning in a sense that the new 3rd would be a Dem seat, but the most Dem leaning out of the 3 - giving strong Dem candidates a chance there.