Census population estimates 2011-2019 (user search)
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  Census population estimates 2011-2019 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Census population estimates 2011-2019  (Read 180304 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #100 on: December 25, 2019, 07:10:20 AM »

BTW, these were the mid-2018 estimates:

327,167,434

... in case there are any downward/upward revisions in the new estimates on Monday.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #101 on: December 30, 2019, 03:14:59 AM »

The 7/1/19 state estimates weren't released at midnight, best I can tell. The link still says December 30, so I suspect they'll drop in the morning.

From what I remember, they are usually released after 3pm European Time (ca. 9am Eastern).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #102 on: December 30, 2019, 03:57:59 AM »

My guess:

The US population has likely grown by slightly over/under 2 million last year (+0.6%).

It could be the first time it grew by less than 2 million in decades (don't know exactly when it was the last time it was less than 2 million).

My guess is that natural population increase was "just" 980.000, the first time below 1 million, because births declined further. But it also depends on the development of deaths: The 1st half of 2018 had an abnormally high number of deaths, but the first half of 2019 had a large drop. At least in European countries. Which means that deaths in 2018-19 could have dropped by a lot more than births dropped, creating a higher natural population growth rate.

The international immigration surplus was probably around 1 million.

But depending on immigration, anything between 1.7 million to 2.3 million growth is possible (immigration surpluses ranged from 0.7 million in 2010-11 to 1.2 million in 2014-15).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #103 on: December 30, 2019, 04:05:26 AM »

My detailed prediction for mid-2019:

There will be a slight downward revision of the mid-2018 population base to 326.85 million.

The 2018-19 birth/death surplus was 1.03 million (largely unchanged from a year ago).

The international immigration surplus was 1.13 million (up by 150.000 from a year ago).

In total, the US population is up by 2.16 million (thanks to increased immigration from South America), or by 0.66%

My mid-2019 estimate is therefore 329.007.206 (+/- 300.000 people).

Florida, Idaho, Arizona, Utah or Nevada were probably the fastest growing states.

If I had to pick, it was probably UT.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #104 on: December 30, 2019, 06:57:14 AM »

The press embargo begins at 10:00 AM EST December 30. T"he public release should be at 12:01 AM on January 1,

Has CSPAN ever covered a New Year's Eve event?

"Its a virtual sea of pocket protectors here as the revelers await the release of the 2019 state population estimates. Lots of cans of Red Bull and Jolt being opened."

(to man in the crowd) "What do you think of this event?"
(man) "I anticipate that California will lose a representative"
(producer) "Let's stay right here. We can cut back to Times Square at 10 after midnight.

I'm pretty sure the numbers will be released in 3 hours or so.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #105 on: December 30, 2019, 09:37:26 AM »

The population has increased by „just“ 1.55 million last year.

+0.47%
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #106 on: December 30, 2019, 09:48:29 AM »

BTW, these were the mid-2018 estimates:

327,167,434

... in case there are any downward/upward revisions in the new estimates on Monday.

The old mid-2018 estimates were revised down by about half a million to 326,687,501 and the new mid-2019 estimate is 328,239,523.

+1.552.022 people

There were 3.791.712 births and 2.835.038 deaths for a 956.674 natural increase.

Net international immigration surplus was only 595.348 - only half the 2015 and 2016 levels.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #107 on: December 30, 2019, 09:59:17 AM »

I think that is the first time US growth has gone below 0.5% since the Census Bureau started tracking population estimates year to year.

It has never been that low.

Maybe in the 1920s or 1930s during the Economic Depression.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #108 on: December 30, 2019, 10:04:55 AM »

I think that is the first time US growth has gone below 0.5% since the Census Bureau started tracking population estimates year to year.

Also there is a real chance now the US might not reach 330 million by time of the Census which is on April 1 2020 if the 2018-19 population growth rate is what occurs through to April 2020.

As for the estimates projected to April 1, 2020 - it will fall short of 330 million.

But the 2020 Census could count more people than the estimates show.

In the 2000 Census for example, 281 million people were counted but only 274 million were estimated at that time ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #109 on: December 30, 2019, 10:08:09 AM »

Here are the complete 2019 estimates:

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-national-total.html
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #110 on: December 30, 2019, 10:27:22 AM »

Idaho was the fastest growing state between 2018-19 with +2.1%.

Followed by NV, AZ, UT, TX, SC, WA, CO, FL, NC and GA (all above 1%).

10 states lost population, with West Virginia having the biggest decline (-0.7%).

Followed by AK, IL, NY, HI, LA, CT, MS, VT and NJ.

Puerto Rico, after years of massive population losses, was stable last year (+340 people). Maybe a lot went back after going to FL after that Hurricane the year before (Puerto Rico continues to have a huge death surplus of 7.400).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #111 on: December 30, 2019, 10:32:46 AM »

4 states had more deaths than births last year (WV, ME, NH and VT).

UT had the highest birth rate (15.3 per 100.000 people), NH the lowest (8.8 per 100.000).

If Puerto Rico were a state, it would have the lowest birth rate at 6.7

UT also had the lowest death rate at 5.5, while WV had the highest at 12.5

UT also had the highest natural growth rate [+9.8] while WV had the biggest natural decline (-2.6).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #112 on: December 30, 2019, 10:35:57 AM »

2 states (NV and WV) had international migration losses, while the other 48 states + DC had gains resulting from international migrants.

FL, CA, TX, NY and MA had the largest immigration surpluses among those states.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #113 on: December 30, 2019, 10:40:44 AM »

Domestic migration patterns (2018-19):

23 states had a domestic migration gain from other states.

27 states + DC had a domestic migration loss from other states, meaning more people left for other states than came.

The biggest domestic gainers were FL, TX, AZ, NC, SC, GA, NV, WA, TN and CO - who all had a surplus of at least 30.000 people each.

The states with the biggest domestic losses to other states were CA, NY, IL, NJ, MA, LA, MI, MD, CT and PA.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #114 on: December 30, 2019, 10:45:29 AM »

The Census Bureau has now released a press statement as well:

Quote
2019 U.S. Population Estimates Continue to Show the Nation’s Growth Is Slowing

Natural Increase Drops Below 1 Million for the First Time in Decades Due to Fewer Births and More Deaths

DEC. 30, 2019 — According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s national and state population estimates released today, forty-two states and the District of Columbia had fewer births in 2019 than 2018, while eight states saw a birth increase. With fewer births in recent years and the number of deaths increasing, natural increase (or births minus deaths) has declined steadily over the past decade.

“While natural increase is the biggest contributor to the U.S. population increase, it has been slowing over the last five years,” said Dr. Sandra Johnson, a demographer/statistician in the Population Division of the Census Bureau. “Natural increase, or when the number of births is greater than the number of deaths, dropped below 1 million in 2019 for the first time in decades.”

The nation’s population was 328,239,523 in 2019, growing by 0.5% between 2018 and 2019, or 1,552,022 people. Annual growth peaked at 0.73% this decade in the period between 2014 and 2015. The growth between 2018 and 2019 is a continuation of a multiyear slowdown since that period.

The South, the largest of the four regions with a population of 125,580,448 in 2019, saw the largest numeric growth (1,011,015) and percentage growth (0.8%) between 2018 and 2019. This growth is driven mainly by natural increase (359,114) and net domestic migration (407,913), which is the movement of people from one area to another within the United States. The Northeast region, the smallest of the four regions with a population of 55,982,803 in 2019, saw population decrease for the first time this decade, declining by 63,817 or -0.1%. This decline was due to net domestic migration (-294,331), which offset population gains from natural increase (97,152) and net international migration (134,145), or the difference between the number of people moving into the country and out of the country.

Forty states and the District of Columbia saw population increases between 2018 and 2019. Ten states lost population between 2018 and 2019, four of which had losses over 10,000 people. The 10 states that lost population were New York (-76,790; -0.4%), Illinois (-51,250; -0.4%), West Virginia (-12,144; -0.7%), Louisiana (-10,896; -0.2%), Connecticut (-6,233; -0.2%), Mississippi (-4,871; -0.2%), Hawaii (-4,721; -0.3%), New Jersey (-3,835; 0.0%), Alaska (-3,594; -0.5%), and Vermont (-369  ; -0.1%).

Also released today were national- and state-level estimates of the components of population change, which include tables on births, deaths and migration.

Puerto Rico Population Estimates

Puerto Rico’s population increased by 340 people (0.0%) between 2018 and 2019 after several years of annual population decline. This slight increase is due to total net migration, which was positive for the first time in years (7,733) and large enough to offset the natural decrease (-7,393).

"Though migration between 2018 and 2019 was large enough to increase the population this year, Puerto Rico’s population remains below where it was at the start of the decade,” explained Johnson.

Additional Highlights:

Nationally, net international migration continues to decrease, falling to 595,348 between 2018 and 2019. Between 2010 and 2019, the year with the highest net international migration was 2016 at 1,046,709; however, since 2016, the net international migration has been gradually decreasing each year.

Between 2018 and 2019, natural increase was 956,674, reflecting 3,791,712 births and 2,835,038 deaths.

42 states and the District of Columbia had fewer births in 2019 than 2018.  Eight states saw increases in births - Washington (612), Utah (293), Nevada (232), Arizona (175), Idaho (166), Montana (66), Vermont (44), and Colorado (30).

Twenty-four states and the District of Columbia saw increases in their number of deaths compared to the previous year. Four states had more deaths than births, also called natural decrease: West Virginia (-4,679), Maine (-2,262), New Hampshire (-121) and Vermont (-53).

Twenty-seven states and the District of Columbia lost population through net domestic migration between 2018 and 2019, six of which had losses over 25,000, and three of which experienced losses greater than 100,000. The top states with net domestic migration loss were California (-203,414), New York (-180,649), Illinois (-104,986), New Jersey (-48,946), Massachusetts (-30,274) and Louisiana (-26,045).

Nine states had a population of over 10 million in 2019. Those states were California (39,512,223), Texas (28,995,881), Florida (21,477,737), New York (19,453,561), Pennsylvania (12,801,989), Illinois (12,671,821), Ohio (11,689,100), Georgia (10,617,423) and North Carolina (10,488,084).
 
During 2020, the Census Bureau will release estimates of the 2019 population for counties, cities and towns, and metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas, as well as national, state and county population estimates by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin. Population estimates for Puerto Rico and its municipios by age and sex will be released as well. These estimates include counties and cities affected by the 2017 hurricane season. Vintage 2019 estimates will be the last official series of estimates released prior to the 2020 Census.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/popest-nation.html

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #115 on: December 30, 2019, 11:00:58 AM »

If the growth of 2018-19 is projected to Census Day (x 0.75), 1 April 2020, about 329.5 million people should be counted in this operation. Plus around 0.5 million to 1 million military + dependents stationed overseas (who are also used to calculate EVs and CDs).

While the census count in 2010 matched the estimates, there was an overcount of 7 million people relative to the estimates in 2000.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #116 on: December 30, 2019, 11:38:22 AM »

citypopulation.de has already updated their US page with the new numbers:

http://www.citypopulation.de/en/usa/states/admin/

If you click on the red arrow on the left of the US map, you can hover above the states to see growth rates since Census 2010.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #117 on: December 30, 2019, 04:30:43 PM »

Hahaha, the Census Bureau has just released the projected New Year population, but using the old unrevised numbers.

Major fail !

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/new-years-2020.html
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #118 on: December 30, 2019, 04:36:27 PM »

Maps of the relative state change in population vs the nationwide average (a.k.a. the bear). Red = you beat the bear and may gain a seat or two in redistricting. Blue = you lose to the bear and the bear may eat you and one or more of your seats.

All you really need to do to avoid the bear is outrun your peers, though, not necessarily the bear.



VA is interesting.

They used to grow faster than the US, but not any longer.

Why is that ?

Are they going the way of CA with skyrocketing property/rent prices that are keeping Americans out of the state (immigrants are still moving there) ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #119 on: December 30, 2019, 04:47:32 PM »

Maps of the relative state change in population vs the nationwide average (a.k.a. the bear). Red = you beat the bear and may gain a seat or two in redistricting. Blue = you lose to the bear and the bear may eat you and one or more of your seats.

All you really need to do to avoid the bear is outrun your peers, though, not necessarily the bear.



VA is interesting.

They used to grow faster than the US, but not any longer.

Why is that ?

Are they going the way of CA with skyrocketing property/rent prices that are keeping Americans out of the state (immigrants are still moving there) ?

IN is the exact opposite:

It used to grow slower than the US, but now faster.

Why is that ?

Looking at the numbers, IN had a big international migration surplus of +15.000 last year.

Does IN have a lot of military stationed abroad who returned home ?

Because:

Quote
Net international migration for the United States includes the international migration of both native and foreign-born populations.  Specifically, it includes: (a) the net international migration of the foreign born, (b) the net migration between the United States and Puerto Rico, (c) the net migration of natives to and from the United States, and (d) the net movement of the Armed Forces population between the United States and overseas.  Net international migration for Puerto Rico includes the migration of native and foreign-born populations between the United States and Puerto Rico.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #120 on: March 21, 2020, 10:40:28 AM »

Are county population estimates still expected sometime this month, or are they expected to be delayed due to the COVID-19 outbreak?

Still planned for release this Thursday:

https://www.calendarwiz.com/calendars/popup.php?op=view&id=139838361&crd=cens1sample
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #121 on: March 24, 2020, 06:55:02 AM »

What's the likelihood Coronavirus will have a significant impact on the census? I'm not thinking of the worst-case scenario of massive death tolls, so much as the likelihood that the census response rate is lower and more variable than usual and that the economic dislocation means fewer people move between states.

The response rate is currently about 9% higher, not lower, than during the early days of 2010.

The question will be: does the trend of favorable internet/mail/phone returns keep up until May/June, or will it drop off later on ?

Also, the process of visiting homes who have not responded is unclear: will they still visit non-responding/remote households, but with protective gear and a 6 feet distance ? Or just remote areas ? Or not at all ? They have time until August to visit. Or they extend into the fall and delay the publishing of the results into next year.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #122 on: March 24, 2020, 07:22:48 AM »

I guess in terms of movement of people, you'd probably expect a similar impact to after the financial crisis hit, but at a higher intensity?

Probably.

For census taking, it is actually better if people are not bouncing and moving around between states and rather stay home.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #123 on: March 26, 2020, 12:15:40 AM »

Are county population estimates still expected sometime this month, or are they expected to be delayed due to the COVID-19 outbreak?

The mid-2019 county and metro area estimates are now out:

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/pop-estimates-county-metro.html

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-kits/2020/pop-estimates-county-metro.html
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #124 on: May 21, 2020, 12:33:19 PM »

What are the fastest growing cities in your state (2010-2019) ?
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