COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[GP270watch]

So what are the chances schools don't meet in the fall?

Low, I could see schools in certain districts being suspended if there is another bad outbreak but around early June we should start seeing death rates drop in most of the country. If anything I bet some places start the school year earlier to makeup for lost school days.

[Mr. Reactionary]

This should be done through the Treasury and not the the IRS.

The IRS is part of the Treasury.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

We may very soon need to confront the reality that the restrictions we have adopted are not sufficiently reducing cases or deaths.

The virus is way more contagious and stealthy than initially assumed.   At this rate, we will continue to see a near constant rate of cases and deaths until herd immunity is achieved, even if we remain under lockdown.

[ilikeverin]

So what are the chances schools don't meet in the fall?

Many universities seem to be leaning towards cancelling in-person classes.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Let me put it this way: I can assure you with 100% confidence that if models at the start projected 60,000 deaths instead of the 2.2 million, the United States would not have shut down. That says it all, really.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Let me put it this way: I can assure you with 100% confidence that if models at the start projected 60,000 deaths instead of the 2.2 million, the United States would not have shut down. That says it all, really.

We're getting close to reaching 60,000 and THAT IS WITH SHUTDOWNS. What do you think it would have looked like without shutdowns? We're going to go over 60,000 even with all of these shutdowns.

And I say this as someone who is supportive of opening up the economy sooner rather than later. You have to be honest when making your arguments. I really, really hope that Georgia opening up does not lead to a significant increase in the number of cases and deaths. I highly doubt that will be the case.

[Dr. Arch]

So what are the chances schools don't meet in the fall?

Many universities seem to be leaning towards cancelling in-person classes.

Yep

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

@ people posting serological studies to "prove" the infection rate is much higher than claimed

depending on the test used, there's a high false positive that could inflate (and explain) the number of infecteds reported.

In the Stanford-run Santa Clara study, the test false positive rate was between 0 and 10%. You can explain all of the infecteds reported if you assume the test has a 1.5% false positive rate (i.e., if the test has "only" a 1.5% false positive rate, then all of the reported positives in the study could be false positives). (People, including Andrew Gelman who I linked, have highlighted some other statistical shortcomings in this study).

That doesn't mean the findings using serological studies are false, but it means you should view them with skepticism and uncertainty. You should think critically about any story analyzing surveys of test results (especially the serological tests) and authors should be acknowledging the assumptions that go into their numbers.

[GP270watch]

This should be done through the Treasury and not the the IRS.

The IRS is part of the Treasury.

 What's your point? The IRS is the arm of the treasury that collects taxes. It shouldn't be done through the IRS, the IRS's funding is used as a politcal club by anti-tax crowd and a reward for big dollar donors. Unexpected stimulus like this for disaster relief should be something we plan for going forward and the IRS is not the best government agency to do this. The Treasury itself would be better.

[Grassroots]

So what are the chances schools don't meet in the fall?

The chance of the initial crisis continuing into July even, is close to 0.

[Brittain33]

It was a huge mistake to not give direct stimulus money to every American person monthly for the next few months. All the moves to support corporate debt, bailouts, and small business loans have been wrongheaded or bungled and disorganized. Small businesses are very important because they employ majority of Americans but every small business owner is an individual and the program rollout has been a disaster. The money should have gone to individuals first and businesses second.

 As part of future disaster preparation we also need a way to instantly disperse money to every American individual or a targeted group of individuals. This should be done through the Treasury and not the the IRS. The IRS is an organization that is a politcal piñata and is often starved of resources so as to be purposely be inefficient.

 

I don’t know. I have a job, I’m likely to keep it unless things completely collapse, I made more than the stimulus threshold and I don’t need any money from the government right now.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

So what are the chances schools don't meet in the fall?

The chance of the initial crisis continuing into July even, is close to 0.

How do you think things will be looking in 3 months from now on this date? The 23rd?

[Grassroots]

So what are the chances schools don't meet in the fall?

The chance of the initial crisis continuing into July even, is close to 0.

How do you think things will be looking in 3 months from now on this date? The 23rd?

Pretty close to normal. Maybe 100-200 cases per day, with 3-10 deaths per day.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So what are the chances schools don't meet in the fall?

The chance of the initial crisis continuing into July even, is close to 0.

How do you think things will be looking in 3 months from now on this date? The 23rd?

Pretty close to normal. Maybe 100-200 cases per day, with 3-10 deaths per day.

That would be fantastic news, but unfortunately I suspect you are being wildly overoptimistic.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Another day another 30k new cases sadly this isnt slowing down

[Grassroots]

So what are the chances schools don't meet in the fall?

The chance of the initial crisis continuing into July even, is close to 0.

How do you think things will be looking in 3 months from now on this date? The 23rd?

Pretty close to normal. Maybe 100-200 cases per day, with 3-10 deaths per day.

That would be fantastic news, but unfortunately I suspect you are being wildly overoptimistic.

Fortunately for you and everyone else, i'm not. This is the neutral scenario, and it's what the models and experts are saying.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

So what are the chances schools don't meet in the fall?

The chance of the initial crisis continuing into July even, is close to 0.

How do you think things will be looking in 3 months from now on this date? The 23rd?

Pretty close to normal. Maybe 100-200 cases per day, with 3-10 deaths per day.

That would be fantastic news, but unfortunately I suspect you are being wildly overoptimistic.

Fortunately for you and everyone else, i'm not. This is the neutral scenario, and it's what the models and experts are saying.

Well a lot of these models had us starting the descend a week ago and only say we will have 60k deaths... we are going to blow past that in 2 weeks

[Grassroots]

Another day another 30k new cases sadly this isnt slowing down

Can you stop? You realize not only is our testing system being swelled currently, but it's also Thursday, which is basically the anti-Sunday in terms of new positives.

So what are the chances schools don't meet in the fall?

The chance of the initial crisis continuing into July even, is close to 0.

How do you think things will be looking in 3 months from now on this date? The 23rd?

Pretty close to normal. Maybe 100-200 cases per day, with 3-10 deaths per day.

That would be fantastic news, but unfortunately I suspect you are being wildly overoptimistic.

Fortunately for you and everyone else, i'm not. This is the neutral scenario, and it's what the models and experts are saying.

Well a lot of these models had us starting the descend a week ago and only say we will have 60k deaths... we are going to blow past that in 2 weeks

We did descend a week ago, and we are still descending now.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Another day another 30k new cases sadly this isnt slowing down

Can you stop? You realize not only is our testing system being swelled currently, but it's also Thursday, which is basically the anti-Sunday in terms of new positives.

So what are the chances schools don't meet in the fall?

The chance of the initial crisis continuing into July even, is close to 0.

How do you think things will be looking in 3 months from now on this date? The 23rd?

Pretty close to normal. Maybe 100-200 cases per day, with 3-10 deaths per day.

That would be fantastic news, but unfortunately I suspect you are being wildly overoptimistic.

Fortunately for you and everyone else, i'm not. This is the neutral scenario, and it's what the models and experts are saying.

Well a lot of these models had us starting the descend a week ago and only say we will have 60k deaths... we are going to blow past that in 2 weeks

We did descend a week ago, and we are still descending now.

I'm disproving your bs takes that we are somehow on the descend. I keep track just like you do and we are not going down the quicker you learn this fact the quicker this thread will be free of your useless drivel

[Grassroots]

Another day another 30k new cases sadly this isnt slowing down

Can you stop? You realize not only is our testing system being swelled currently, but it's also Thursday, which is basically the anti-Sunday in terms of new positives.

So what are the chances schools don't meet in the fall?

The chance of the initial crisis continuing into July even, is close to 0.

How do you think things will be looking in 3 months from now on this date? The 23rd?

Pretty close to normal. Maybe 100-200 cases per day, with 3-10 deaths per day.

That would be fantastic news, but unfortunately I suspect you are being wildly overoptimistic.

Fortunately for you and everyone else, i'm not. This is the neutral scenario, and it's what the models and experts are saying.

Well a lot of these models had us starting the descend a week ago and only say we will have 60k deaths... we are going to blow past that in 2 weeks

We did descend a week ago, and we are still descending now.

I'm disproving your bs takes that we are somehow on the descend. I keep track just like you do and we are not going down the quicker you learn this fact the quicker this thread will be free of your useless drivel

It's a slow decline right now but it's going to go down faster very soon. You can't look at that graph and not notice the slight decline over the past week.

[Del Tachi]

So what are the chances schools don't meet in the fall?

Many universities seem to be leaning towards cancelling in-person classes.

Yep

I hope governors in less-affected states would close purse strings to them if they do.  Having in-class instruction is an irreplaceable part of collegiate education.  This is also an accreditation problem (the big accrediting bodies for U.S. IHLs are not set-up to assess widespread all-online curricula), so hopefully we see some pushback from them as well.

College students are at relatively low risk of serious complications from COVID-19, and steps can be taken to protect more vulnerable staff/faculty.

Plus, how is it fair for students at most state schools to shell out $10k a year for online classes?  The entire boondoogle that is college education (as funded by federal student loans) only works by milking the "in-person" experience that students require.

I expect the compromise solution will be students choosing either in-person or online classes (to justify tuition rates) at some schools, and then normal operations at others.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another day another 30k new cases sadly this isnt slowing down

Can you stop? You realize not only is our testing system being swelled currently, but it's also Thursday, which is basically the anti-Sunday in terms of new positives.

So what are the chances schools don't meet in the fall?

The chance of the initial crisis continuing into July even, is close to 0.

How do you think things will be looking in 3 months from now on this date? The 23rd?

Pretty close to normal. Maybe 100-200 cases per day, with 3-10 deaths per day.

That would be fantastic news, but unfortunately I suspect you are being wildly overoptimistic.

Fortunately for you and everyone else, i'm not. This is the neutral scenario, and it's what the models and experts are saying.

Well a lot of these models had us starting the descend a week ago and only say we will have 60k deaths... we are going to blow past that in 2 weeks

We did descend a week ago, and we are still descending now.

I'm disproving your bs takes that we are somehow on the descend. I keep track just like you do and we are not going down the quicker you learn this fact the quicker this thread will be free of your useless drivel

It's a slow decline right now but it's going to go down faster very soon. You can't look at that graph and not notice the slight decline over the past week.

I don't think that's the issue.  My concern is that you and others are assuming a fairly typical bell curve with a rapid descent on the right tail.  But so far the case numbers and deaths in places like NYC and Lombardy are indicating a much fatter tail.  It's still a descent, which is great, but one with a much less steep slope.

[It’s so Joever]

We are going down.
I hate to be on the “less alarmist” side, but the facts are clear. It is a very slow descent, like Italy, which is too be expected given our weak enforcement of lockdowns. Most of the drops are due to New York and Michigan at this rate, so the trends do vary by State, but nationwide here is a slow decrease. The real problem is when governors take this news as an excuse to reopen without thinking, which ends the decrease and begins new exponential case growth. We are going down right now, and that isn’t really disputable. The real question is whether we will still go down after governors cave in to the Libertarians and virus-truthers.

[It’s so Joever]

Another day another 30k new cases sadly this isnt slowing down

Can you stop? You realize not only is our testing system being swelled currently, but it's also Thursday, which is basically the anti-Sunday in terms of new positives.

So what are the chances schools don't meet in the fall?

The chance of the initial crisis continuing into July even, is close to 0.

How do you think things will be looking in 3 months from now on this date? The 23rd?

Pretty close to normal. Maybe 100-200 cases per day, with 3-10 deaths per day.

That would be fantastic news, but unfortunately I suspect you are being wildly overoptimistic.

Fortunately for you and everyone else, i'm not. This is the neutral scenario, and it's what the models and experts are saying.

Well a lot of these models had us starting the descend a week ago and only say we will have 60k deaths... we are going to blow past that in 2 weeks

We did descend a week ago, and we are still descending now.

I'm disproving your bs takes that we are somehow on the descend. I keep track just like you do and we are not going down the quicker you learn this fact the quicker this thread will be free of your useless drivel

It's a slow decline right now but it's going to go down faster very soon. You can't look at that graph and not notice the slight decline over the past week.

A rapid decline like you suggest will only occur with far more enforcement of lockdowns and a crackdown on non-essential travel between more affected States. Unfortunately, our politicians seem to want to veer the other way without thinking. Even keeping what we have now would see a decline, but it will be slow.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

IHME model now pushed back the dates where many states can safely reopen. Georgia is now June 22nd, Florida is June 14th, Illinois is may 16th