Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[DINGO Joe]

I'm sure they'll hit 200+ for the operation in total.  They'll definitely need to bring in the tractor brigade again to deal with all this.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/DylanBurns1776/status/1568254737056686080

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/tarasberezovets/status/1568523831135932417

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1568538887286398976?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

Christ they've moved fast.

Russians have left Izium and Lyman

[DINGO Joe]

Everything is under control folks; Steiner is sending reinforcements lol

Just wait until the 100,000 North Koreans arrive.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/VladDavidzon/status/1568622692701536257

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1568606907769700353

Holy s***. I have long felt that it was interesting that the front near Donetsk city has not moved all that much since February. If the Ukrainians are able to take the airport—territory that fell in 2015—that would put them around 6-7 miles from the Donetsk city center. Again, I am in awe.

I'm no military expert, but I'd guess this isn't a real offensive, but an effort to sow even more confusion and panic among very tired and low morale conscripts.

[DINGO Joe]

So basically all the gains the Russians made during the summer are collapsing within a few days?

Yes, they've gained more than lost in the Russian summer offensive.  However, much of the territory liberated by the Ukrainians was land the Russian had taken in the initial invasion and didn't withdraw from like they did around Kyiv.  Izium in particular was the Northern base from which the Russians tried to encircle the UA in the Donbass before they gave up encirclement and just basically went with the Crawlkrieg strategy. 

[DINGO Joe]

Hey, if India still wants to buy some Russian weaponry, Ukraine might have some slightly used surplus to sell at a nice price.  And we all know how much India loves a good bargain.

[DINGO Joe]

Obviously not real, but......

https://mobile.twitter.com/SignMyRocket/status/1568650372864004096

[DINGO Joe]

Well, Russia certainly showed those stupid Ukrainians how to lose a war in 3 days.

[DINGO Joe]

Hello

https://mobile.twitter.com/LvivJournal/status/1567974442856513536

If Bilaps weren't banned, he would have left by now. The Putin bots have run out of disinformation.

In my twitter travels yesterday, I saw a 3rd tier Putinist of the Tucker/Shapiro mold being mocked and his defense was "things look pretty bad for Russia, but you should consider what this guy says" and he linked to a longass substack article by.................................Big Serg!

Sure enough he's doing his thing on twitter and elsewhere.  I'm sure he'll be sad when the checks stop arriving.

[DINGO Joe]

Big Serge is now Twitter famous

https://mobile.twitter.com/russophileLs/status/1568992820161019907

[DINGO Joe]

We've been seeing some really heartwarming videos of Ukrainian civilians welcoming Ukrainian soldiers who are liberating them.  Assuming the amazing success of the AFU continues, I would love to see what the civilian response would be if they recapture territory held by the LPR or DPR for the past 8 years.

As much as I want to see Ukraine victorious and returned to its 2014 borders, it would terrible if some sort of insurgency develops in Donbass or Crimea.

Well Donbass and Luhansk have been almost entirely stripped of their male population for cannon fodder and it seems that Russians and collaborators are fleeing so I don't know who would make up any meaningful resistance. 

[DINGO Joe]

Just to beat a dead pundit

https://twitter.com/MattGertz/status/1569321565531115523

Fox viewers will be more shocked at the Russian loss than Russians

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1569623630388273153

Both sides!!!

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1570403249550946305

Well, it's about time they unleased the Dingoes.  I approve.

[DINGO Joe]

Russians considering new strategies

https://mobile.twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1570350377878585346


https://mobile.twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1570393330164596739

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1570526838933557248

Only 600M? I don't understand why they do it in small drips instead of a full long-term aid package numbered in the billions.

Yup, we should do more. Especially since I'm worried a GOP-controlled House may just not authorize much additional aid. I just don't trust them. And neither should Biden.

I haven't done any research, but lend-lease starts Oct 1st. so I don't know how that changes the process.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/felix_light/status/1570776934459772929

Now, gimme some more discounted oil.

[DINGO Joe]

I'm sure this will solve the manpower problem

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1570662673305735169

[DINGO Joe]

Old people joke

[DINGO Joe]

Hearing reports that Germany has already hit 90% of their needed natural gas stockpile for the winter without any Russian gas. So they'll easily meet the goal at this rate. Russia is pretty much screwed in this regard now.

This is correct

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/092022-german-gas-storage-tops-90-as-scholz-eyes-lng-supply-from-uae-qatar

Their next goal is 95% by Nov 1st which they won't have any trouble hitting.  For logistic reasons you really can't get to 100%. 

Also, Russia exports have plummeted in the first half of September

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-20/russian-oil-flows-dive-hurting-putin-s-war-chest

or

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/091622-russian-oil-exports-slide-to-post-war-low-as-sanctions-loom-crude-discounts-narrow

BTW, anyone can register to read S&P articles for free

Also, the US still has SPR oil to sell

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/091922-us-doe-issues-notice-to-sell-up-to-10-mil-barrels-from-spr-for-delivery-in-nov

The initial plan was to finish selling in October but the demand hasn't been as great as needed, so even with the Nov sales they've still got 15 million barrels to sell.


Anyway, Russia has a (fake) plan to mobilize and increase war production while their revenue is collapsing and they can't seem to manufacture or supply sh**t for what's left of their current army.


It's going to be a long hard winter for the Russkies, not sure they can survive.

[DINGO Joe]

Meanwhile in Kherson

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1572288821420752912

Russian basically have one trick, artillery, and now they have to conserve it.

[DINGO Joe]

He's trolling us all isn't he?

Yes:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1572300234784382980?s=20&t=O9Fb5U0d...

Hopefully someone in the Russian military hierarchy had the good sense of "disappearing" Putin. Or maybe he had a stroke or something. But we'll probably won't be as lucky.

Maybe somebody in the FSB but not in the military, they are a very feeble group.

[DINGO Joe]

A few random details from today without links cuz I'm tired

--Moscow Stock Exchange fell 9%

--Airfare to places like Istanbul skyrocketed

--Turkey's two largest banks will no longer accept the Russian Mir card.  Other countries that will no longer accept it are Kazakhstan, Vietnam and Armenia.  Yep Armenia.  Saw the head of Kazakhstan having a lovely chat and photo op with the head of the EU too.

[DINGO Joe]

Oh, and McDonald's has reopened in Ukraine
https://mobile.twitter.com/uamemesforces/status/1526241533770465280