Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

While this is awesome, what is crazy for me is how fast this is happening. I expected this counterattack to last like 2 months. It’s been like 2 weeks and they are taking over huge tracks of territory.

I mean the quality of the soldiers behind the lines doing occupation, garrison, and police work is always suspect when compared to those with experience at the front, what's just showing is that the gap between those two groups is far wider than expected. Which throws a lot of Cold Water on the idea that Russia can order a mobilization and recover some dignity. If the 'soldiers' will act like this and probably be underequipped then the threat is not to Ukraine but to Putin's regime. Russia's soldiers are not coming from the "Great Russian" heartland regions for a reason, and a mobilization of them for little military gain likely reaps too much political dissatisfaction to make this move feasible.

Wait until the Russian 3rd Army Corp shows up with reinforcements in Ukraine...

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/DylanBurns1776/status/1568254737056686080

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1568464792909643778
 🇺🇦

[NOVA Green]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1568464792909643778
 🇺🇦

Geolocated?

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1568465052193230850?s=20&t=k-vhVkj...

[Woody]

Hello

https://mobile.twitter.com/LvivJournal/status/1567974442856513536

The man you see in the picture is not Andrei Sychevoy. He is completely bald on the top of his head, and this guy has just shaved it off. Not to mention that if he was captured he would have been put on display right now.



Might be this guy:
https://ko-fi.com/post/Was-Lieutenant-General-Andrei-Sychevoy-Captured-P-B0B0EXP8J

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

More photos from Kupyansk. This one is from outside the council building.

https://www.twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1568486134056947712

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/tarasberezovets/status/1568523831135932417

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1568538887286398976?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

Christ they've moved fast.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Surprisingly mobile frontline here.
Let's see how long this lasts.

[Coldstream]

I never doubted Ukraine would throw the fascists into the sea. Mariupol by Christmas!

At this rate it could be Moscow by Christmas.

[ugabug]

I never doubted Ukraine would throw the fascists into the sea. Mariupol by Christmas!

At this rate it could be Moscow by Christmas.

And you'd still have Putin saying everything is going as plan.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/tarasberezovets/status/1568523831135932417

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1568538887286398976?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

Christ they've moved fast.

Russians have left Izium and Lyman

[Coldstream]

I never doubted Ukraine would throw the fascists into the sea. Mariupol by Christmas!

At this rate it could be Moscow by Christmas.

And you'd still have Putin saying everything is going as plan.

Putin is that old meme of the dog in the burning house.

[Omega21]

Even if the Ukrainians run out of steam at the current line (Izyum & Kupyansk), they have for the first time proven they are more than competent and able of taking back more densely populated territories.

Extremely well executed, just wow.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Even if the Ukrainians run out of steam at the current line (Izyum & Kupyansk), they have for the first time proven they are more than competent and able of taking back more densely populated territories.

Extremely well executed, just wow.

They had some success in an earlier Kharkiv counteroffensive in May, but that took place while Russia was distracted with an offensive of its own in the Donbas (that applies this time as well, but the key different is the current Russian offensive is moving at a snail’s pace). There was speculation their offensive power was exhausted by the end of the Battle of Lyschansk. If that was true, it was only temporary.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/tarasberezovets/status/1568523831135932417
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1568538887286398976?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...
Christ they've moved fast.

Russians have left Izium and Lyman

If true, perhaps they didn’t manage to secure alternative ground lines of communication to the Izyum route in time. Losing Donbas towns like Lyman pushes Russia further away from its short-term political objectives in a way losing Kharkiv towns doesn’t.

Wagner themselves claim they’re still deployed near Bakhmut. Because their own reputation isn’t currently Roy being tarred, they have refused to huff the copium:

https://mobile.twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1568524159675781120

[Hindsight was 2020]

And we now have video evidence that Izyum is Ukraine again!!
https://mobile.twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1568565215674916871

[Omega21]

Everything is under control folks; Steiner is sending reinforcements lol

[Storr]

And we now have video evidence that Izyum is Ukraine again!!
https://mobile.twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1568565215674916871

Already geolocated:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1568575022805012482?s=20&t=3CZ45D04Jo-vV1...

[Torie]

This article is a very good read, a nice respite from the disparate twitter squibs as it pulls the bits together so that it reads like narrative of the action in a war game board game.

Aside from perhaps attempts to escape the vise and retreat, what's missing from the narrative is how Russia's military assets are now being deployed in response to Ukraine's advances. But one thing that is certain is that while we don't know, Ukraine knows in real time, thanks to spies in the sky. That is one of the subtexts of this article. As soon as a hollowed out gap appears, the first to know is Ukraine.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/09/09/the-ukrainian-army-is-surrounding-10000-russian-troops-in-the-east/?sh=2d48720b3b54

An interesting sidebar is the Russian air force assets are absent from the fray. A substantial notice period is required to secure specific bombing coordinates. If what is on the ground slated for bombing are on the move, those coordinates get stale. Bombing buildings is best. They don't move very much.

Addendum: Here is an almost 5 month old article on the matter of Crimea (I surmise that it has been put up before here). The author goes to close to the gates of the place of the ripe hanging fruit in characterizing it. Things didn't progress according to his schedule obviously, but it perhaps offers up some insight as to why Russia took the bait or whatever it was and redeployed military assets to Kherson. Perhaps it is true that what lies beyond is the soft underbelly of the peninsula itself.

https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/why-and-how-russian-occupied-crimea-can-fall-ukraine

[afleitch]

The speed and scale of the Ukrainian advance really is quite something; are Russia just going to withdraw and declare the 'operation over'?

[Storr]

More photos from Kupyansk. This one is from outside the council building.

https://www.twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1568486134056947712

Geolocation. It's notable that only one window of the administration building appears to be broken. That seems like another indication that the Russians simply left instead of fought:

https://twitter.com/TheBaseLeg/status/1568487986106605568?s=20&t=3CZ45D04Jo-...

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1568594855118442497

[Storr]

Confirmation of AFU in Savyntsi, the largest town between Balakliya and Izyum:

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1568597035187675138?s=20&t=zv71X09G1...

[Torie]

If the Russians are just pulling out as fast as possible, where are they going? Someone on the nets observed that the troops deployed against Kyiv and Kharkov went to the Dombas. What is the next stop on the itinerary?

[Splash]

lol

https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1568603258586894337