Pennsylvania 2010 - The Official Thread

[Keystone Phil]

By the way, as mentioned elsewhere, I can't wait until Toomey pulls out the ads that Specter ran in 2004.

Arlen Specter - Who is he today?

[Lunar]

Oh, Specter's triangulating and tired old flip-flopped are going to be the premise of the plurality of Toomey ads.  It'll be a great and historically unique ad campaign.




Will any of Arlen's staff quit?  I don't think so since they've been looking at the poll numbers and Arlen's currently promising to vote the exact same as he would as a Republican..

[Keystone Phil]

Will any of Arlen's staff quit?  I don't think so since they've been looking at the poll numbers and Arlen's currently promising to vote the exact same as he would as a Republican..

I was just discussing this with a friend. I'm not sure. I'm sure a few will but most have such a personal loyalty to Arlen. I mean, if they stuck with him to this point (with his reputation of being a real prick to his staffers), I'm guessing they love the guy...

[Lunar]

I'm sure he'll lose volunteers, but he'll probably gain more depending on how quickly he flips on labor.

His inner staff had been mentally preparing for this ever since he privately waffled on becoming a Democrat before he tried the "tack the right, piss of labor, run ads against Toomey and then poll to figure out where I am" strategy...

Note too how the ad Specter ran was NOT talking about Specter's conservative credentials... methinks that was intentional so that he would have leeway to switch, so I imagine a lot of people close to him were aware of this possibility when they were designing and thinking about the ad...

[Lunar]

isn't it funny that Arlen ran for president in '96

[Marokai Backbeat]

isn't it funny that Arlen ran for president in '96

I feel a timeline coming on

[Brittain33]

isn't it funny that Arlen ran for president in '96

It is part of the Lieberman parallels, but in Bachmann-esque fashion I haven't thought through enough of them to decide if there are more similarities than differences in the two.

[Keystone Phil]

isn't it funny that Arlen ran for president in '96

I remember when I was first getting involved in politics. I read about how Specter briefly ran and found it so cool that someone from PA ran so recently.

I asked my Dad if he supported him. He responded with disgust and said absolutely not. I was so confused. "How could you not support a Republican from PA running for President?" Oh, how little I knew... 

[Keystone Phil]

The most interesting additions - State Senate Majority Leader Pileggi and...Pat Meehan

http://www.pa2010.com/2009/04/the-morning-after-conspiracy-theories-and-names-in-the-air/

Meehan won't do it because he worked for Specter and is apparently the only Gubernatorial candidate who admitted he'd support Arlen before the switch (I didn't know this but I'm obviously not surprised).

Pileggi...eh, I don't know why he's getting pushed for it. He's a Republican leader from the SE but that's it. I'm not sure he wants to give up all of the power he has in Harrisburg.

Also, PA2010 points out how Torsella will actually likely get out. I can't believe I didn't realize this - Torsella is a big Rendell guy (he was a deputy Mayor under Rendell) so you know he'll get all types of pressure to abandon his campaign.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm going to state here, for the record (before I'm called a "moderate hater!" again ), that I really won't mind too much if someone like Ridge or Gerlach run. In fact, my only real problem is that I don't want to see a challenger to Toomey throw mud at him.

Everyone knows I like Gerlach and I really don't have much of a problem with Ridge. I concede that they are clearly more electable than Toomey but my support isn't going to change. Pat Toomey is a political hero of mine. I like where he stands and I think he deserves the nomination. I'll be disappointed if he gets a serious challenge and even more disappointed if he loses but, at the same time, I won't be destroyed. People like Gerlach and Ridge are fine with me; I'll just dislike seeing someone I like go down. That being said, neither Gerlach nor Ridge are going to beat Toomey in a primary. The national party can throw all kinds of money their way. They might get all kinds of establishment support here, too. It just won't be enough. It might be close but Toomey is just too popular among the base (Ridge isn't) and too well known (Gerlach isn't well known). Plus, Toomey now has a national following to help offset some of the financial advantages that a party backed challenger may have.

I just wanted to get those feelings out. I'm sure certain members will still accuse me of not caring about "throwing a seat away." I obviously reject that line of thought but whatever the case, I'm going to continue to stand with the person and ideas that I believe in.

[Lunar]

"President Obama kicked off his 100 days celebration by appearing with party-switching Sen. Arlen Specter this morning,"

READ: Specter cruises through his primary if he provides the critical cloture vote on key Obama agenda bills and can vote however he wants on everything else

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.ldnews.com/news/ci_12255862

[Lunar]

Of course they want Torsella in there to keep Arlen honest at this point!  They need his votes, and they know they can't trust him to vote liberally if he thinks voting conservatively will help him against Toomey





and..


WASHINGTON (AP) - Vice President Joe Biden said Wednesday he believes Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter would have "an open mind" on voting for a bill that makes it easier to form unions if a compromise emerges.

[Lunar]

"I won't be happy if I don't get to chair something because of Arlen Specter," said Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.), who sits on the Appropriations Committee with Specter and is fifth in seniority among Democrats behind Chairman Daniel Inouye (Hawaii), Sens. Robert Byrd (W.Va.), Patrick Leahy (Vt.) and Tom Harkin (Iowa). "I'm happy with the Democratic order but I don't want to be displaced because of Arlen Specter," she said.


http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/democrats-push-back-on-specter-deal-2009-04-29.html

[Ronnie]

Does Toomey have a chance at beating Specter in the general?

[Lunar]

Does Toomey have a chance at beating Specter in the general?

Phil thinks he has great chance, but most analysts say no....at least not if things unfold the way they expect them to unfold as of now*.  Incumbent centrists, indeed "centrists" tend to do very well in general elections in states that tilt against the solidly liberal/conservative challenger.

*blah blah we don't know what's going to happen in 2 years, I know.  We can make educated guesses though.

[Keystone Phil]

Does Toomey have a chance at beating Specter in the general?

Phil thinks he has great chance,

I never said a "great" chance.

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It's not too educated when you're trying to guess the climate a year and a half out.

[© tweed]

think Toomey wishes he had never jumped in?

[Keystone Phil]

think Toomey wishes he had never jumped in?

Yeah, I know Pat is definitely thinking to himself, "Damn. I should have contacted that gambler kid from Cornell before I did this."

[© tweed]

I mean, if he wishes he went for Gov instead.  not necessarily that the idea had to come from me.


and it's 'ex-bookie', not 'gambler'.  get it right, bro!

[Keystone Phil]

I mean, if he wishes he went for Gov instead.  not necessarily that the idea had to come from me.

Maybe but that would have been difficult as well. He has to be loving his new status as America's conservative hero.

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It's both.

[The Mikado]

Seriously, guys, don't check this race off as "won" yet.  I'm certainly not. 

[Keystone Phil]

Seriously, guys, don't check this race off as "won" yet.  I'm certainly not. 

The President just said the same...well...regarding the status of the GOP. "I don't believe in crystal balls." He stressed how things change. Maybe his fans should listen to him here.

[Lunar]

I still take the race seriously.  I haven't written it off because it's still developing.

I mean, if he wishes he went for Gov instead.  not necessarily that the idea had to come from me.

Toomey loves getting rid of RINOs by any means possible, even if it means the Democrats get to pass their legislation, I'm sure he considers this a resounding success. 

[Keystone Phil]

Toomey loves getting rid of RINOs by any means possible, even if it means the Democrats get to pass their legislation, I'm sure he considers this a resounding success. 

Don't ruin this thread with that nonsense, please.