Pennsylvania 2010 - The Official Thread

[Ronnie]

There are plenty of Democrats in PA, Torie.

[Keystone Phil]

Those who care about card check with my opinion on the matter owe him something Phil. Are there no Torie Republicans in PA anymore?  Where have all the flowers gone? 

I strongly opposed it as well but I don't owe Specter anything for it. The man sponsored the damn legislation just last year! He's spineless and don't think for a minute that he wouldn't vote for it in 2011 if he found himself somehow re-elected...

[Keystone Phil]

Just an update...

Facebook Fan Pages:

Arlen Specter - 982 fans

Pat Toomey - 838 fans


Toomey's official fan page was started last Wednesday.

[Smash255]

Those who care about card check with my opinion on the matter owe him something Phil. Are there no Torie Republicans in PA anymore?  Where have all the flowers gone? 

They did exist, mostly in suburban Philly, and they have left the party in droves.

[TeePee4Prez]

Just an update...

Facebook Fan Pages:

Arlen Specter - 982 fans

Pat Toomey - 838 fans


Toomey's official fan page was started last Wednesday.

I could believe it.  Younger liberals tend to break for simply the Democrat while older ones may be Specter people.

[TeePee4Prez]

Those who care about card check with my opinion on the matter owe him something Phil. Are there no Torie Republicans in PA anymore?  Where have all the flowers gone? 

They did exist, mostly in suburban Philly, and they have left the party in droves.

It's been said before.  The candidate that wins the majority of the Southeast counties wins the state.  It's happened in EVERY preisdential and IIRC governors' races since 1980.  1994 was and probably will be the last year a conservative Republican will ever win the Southeast collar counties provided the Democrat isn't a conservative.  This is why I'm actually afraid of Jack Wagner.  People sucked up Casey to boot Santorum.  Will they follow this time especially if Specter somehow pulls it off?

[Keystone Phil]

Sestak now claims he hasn't made up his mind about his political future - http://www.delcotimes.com/articles/2009/04/21/news/doc49ed365ea45b4200009666.txt

Those who care about card check with my opinion on the matter owe him something Phil. Are there no Torie Republicans in PA anymore?  Where have all the flowers gone? 

They did exist, mostly in suburban Philly, and they have left the party in droves.

It's been said before.  The candidate that wins the majority of the Southeast counties wins the state.  It's happened in EVERY preisdential and IIRC governors' races since 1980.  1994 was and probably will be the last year a conservative Republican will ever win the Southeast collar counties provided the Democrat isn't a conservative.  This is why I'm actually afraid of Jack Wagner.  People sucked up Casey to boot Santorum.  Will they follow this time especially if Specter somehow pulls it off?

You need to get over this silly thought that without an ideal candidate for the left wingers, you run the risk of losing. No one is going to match the numbers that Wagner has/can put up. No one. Your base might be a bit less motivated but Wagner brings in tons of Republicans and the moderate to conservative Dems.

[Lunar]

meaning he is waiting for the PA Democratic Party to green light him, the party itself is waiting to figure out what the heck is going on on the Republican side before it gives up on Schwartz?

[Keystone Phil]

meaning he is waiting for the PA Democratic Party to green light him, the party itself is waiting to figure out what the heck is going on on the Republican side before it gives up on Schwartz?

Explain the difference.

If anything, I'd think that they'd be more willing to let Schwartz take the dive and save Sestak. PA 13 is probably safer for the Dems though they might not want to give up Schwartz so easily since she's on Ways and Means.

[Lunar]

http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=20301644&BRD=1282&PAG=461&dept_id=182121&rfi=6

Bill Kortz, the U.S. Steel Irvin Plant manager who rode the PACleanSweep tide into the state House three years ago, is looking at the U.S. Senate.
Advertisement

Kortz, Democratic representative in the 38th Legislative District, said Monday he intends to file the necessary paperwork with the Federal Election Commission for a 2010 run.

[Keystone Phil]

Good job, Gleason. I'm pleasantly surprised at how critical he has been of Arlen - http://www.politicspa.com/Alex%20Roarty%20Random%20Stories/Gleason%202.htm

http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=20301644&BRD=1282&PAG=461&dept_id=182121&rfi=6

Bill Kortz, the U.S. Steel Irvin Plant manager who rode the PACleanSweep tide into the state House three years ago, is looking at the U.S. Senate.
Advertisement

Kortz, Democratic representative in the 38th Legislative District, said Monday he intends to file the necessary paperwork with the Federal Election Commission for a 2010 run.

LOL

Who? You know it's bad when I haven't even heard of him. He won't even make the ballot.

[Keystone Phil]

http://briefingroom.thehill.com/2009/04/21/club-for-growth-founder-calls-on-toomey-to-abandon-senate-run/

The founder of the Club for Growth's Pennsylvania chapter on Tuesday called for Pat Toomey, the national group's former president, to withdrawal from the 2010 Pennsylvania Senate GOP primary because Toomey cannot win a general election against a Democrat.

"Today I am urging Pat to withdraw from the 2010 Senate race because his candidacy threatens to hand over total control of the federal government to the Democrats," William Parker, Club for Growth's founder, wrote in a letter.

Parker compared Toomey to former Sen. Rick Santorum, a Republican who lost his bid for re-election in 2006. Toomey is to the right of Santorum, Parker reasons, so he won't be successful in Pennsylvania.

"Pat can't win the general election," Parker wrote. "His lifetime American Conservative Union record of 97 puts him farther to the right than Rick Santorum's 88 percent lifetime rating. Rick was a two-term Senator, ranked number three in the Republican leadership, spent $31 million and lost by 18 points."

Specter must have given this guy something. They're using the same talking points, word for word! Arlen is going to use this one for awhile.

[Lunar]

Indeed, that does seem a little rehearsed and not like a CfG guy at all.  You're in the wrong organization if you prize electability

http://newmajority.com/ just released a scathing editorial on CfG that doesn't even encompass all of their greatest hits.


here's a hint about the article:
THANKS, PAT TOOMEY!

[Keystone Phil]

Specter campaign already pounced...


http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/harrisburg_politics/Former_PA_Club_for_Growth_President_Endorses_Specter.html

The letter is going out to Club for Growth members across PA and across the nation.

[Lunar]

say what you will about Specter, he's good at politics

[Keystone Phil]

say what you will about Specter, he's good at politics

Not over the past few months. Getting a past state Club for Growth Chairman to endorse you and pissing away money on the mailer isn't really that ingenious.

The man dug himself such a deep hole. Stuff like this barely gets him on his feet. This isn't the type of stuff to swing a primary. Specter wants to make an electability argument? Fine. Toomey will, too. He'll be sure to remind Republicans that we don't like Specter and will choose not to vote for him in the General. I think he'll also be sure to remind people how pissed off the unions are at Specter and they'll be out for revenge (not that they like Toomey either).

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.pennlive.com/statehouse/patriotnews/index.ssf?/base/news/1240371613291390.xml&coll=1

I can totally understand why they don't want several candidates in the race, giving up good House seats while ripping each other to shreds but if they avoid a primary all together, that certainly hurts as well. As we know, they're great for organization building.

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=31550

When I reported on the Pennsylvania Leadership Conference (PLC) in Harrisburg last month, one of the things that was most startling was the number of elected officials who were critical of Sen. Arlen Specter (R.-Penn) and supportive of conservative primary challenger Pat Toomey.  Numerous state representatives and senators from the Keystone State among the record crowd of 600-plus attendees freely volunteered to me that they would support the insurgent former Rep. Toomey over the 79-year-old Specter, who has held the Senate seat since 1980.

[Lunar]

http://blog.pennlive.com/politics/2009/04/gleason_toomey_did_not_want_to.html

The drip, drip seems orchestrated

[Keystone Phil]

http://blog.pennlive.com/politics/2009/04/gleason_toomey_did_not_want_to.html

The drip, drip seems orchestrated

Yeah, I posted his thoughts after a friend told me he didn't want to be 1 out of 100. This was before Specter's Stimulus vote and everything that followed...

[Keystone Phil]

By the way, this is something the Toomey campaign can easily work around. Just wait until Toomey runs the ads saying, "Arlen Specter didn't want to run for the Senate...as a Republican..." 

[TeePee4Prez]

http://www.pennlive.com/statehouse/patriotnews/index.ssf?/base/news/1240371613291390.xml&coll=1

I can totally understand why they don't want several candidates in the race, giving up good House seats while ripping each other to shreds but if they avoid a primary all together, that certainly hurts as well. As we know, they're great for organization building.

Hmm, I think I'll create a "Final Four" scenario of Sestak-Murphy and Schwartz-Shapiro here:

I wouldn't be too concerned with Shapiro or Schwartz's seats flipping however I would be for Pat Murphy or Joe Sestak.  Now it comes down to a balance of electability statewide vs. giving up a seat.  If it comes down to Sestak vs. Murphy, I go with Sestak to run for the Senate for these reasons-  The 7th has a deeper Democratic bench plus Sestak is a bit older.  If it comes down to Shapiro vs. Schwartz then it's a tougher call.  Josh Shapiro is a fast rising star while Allyson is an experienced legislator and excellent fundraiser.  In terms of statewide electability, I'd narrowly go with Josh Shapiro but in terms of money and GOTV Schwartz may have the edge.

Championship round:

I'll go with Sestak vs. Schwartz.  Statewide electability vs. Legislative record/Fundraising.  Tough call.  I'll come back to this later. 

[Mr.Phips]

http://www.pennlive.com/statehouse/patriotnews/index.ssf?/base/news/1240371613291390.xml&coll=1

I can totally understand why they don't want several candidates in the race, giving up good House seats while ripping each other to shreds but if they avoid a primary all together, that certainly hurts as well. As we know, they're great for organization building.

Hmm, I think I'll create a "Final Four" scenario of Sestak-Murphy and Schwartz-Shapiro here:

I wouldn't be too concerned with Shapiro or Schwartz's seats flipping however I would be for Pat Murphy or Joe Sestak.  Now it comes down to a balance of electability statewide vs. giving up a seat.  If it comes down to Sestak vs. Murphy, I go with Sestak to run for the Senate for these reasons-  The 7th has a deeper Democratic bench plus Sestak is a bit older.  If it comes down to Shapiro vs. Schwartz then it's a tougher call.  Josh Shapiro is a fast rising star while Allyson is an experienced legislator and excellent fundraiser.  In terms of statewide electability, I'd narrowly go with Josh Shapiro but in terms of money and GOTV Schwartz may have the edge.

Championship round:

I'll go with Sestak vs. Schwartz.  Statewide electability vs. Legislative record/Fundraising.  Tough call.  I'll come back to this later. 

Murphy and Sestak should both be advised to stay out.  Both of their House seats would probably go Republican if the climate was bad without them running and Im not even sure that they could win statewide(they would be crushed by Spector). 

[TeePee4Prez]

http://www.pennlive.com/statehouse/patriotnews/index.ssf?/base/news/1240371613291390.xml&coll=1

I can totally understand why they don't want several candidates in the race, giving up good House seats while ripping each other to shreds but if they avoid a primary all together, that certainly hurts as well. As we know, they're great for organization building.

Hmm, I think I'll create a "Final Four" scenario of Sestak-Murphy and Schwartz-Shapiro here:

I wouldn't be too concerned with Shapiro or Schwartz's seats flipping however I would be for Pat Murphy or Joe Sestak.  Now it comes down to a balance of electability statewide vs. giving up a seat.  If it comes down to Sestak vs. Murphy, I go with Sestak to run for the Senate for these reasons-  The 7th has a deeper Democratic bench plus Sestak is a bit older.  If it comes down to Shapiro vs. Schwartz then it's a tougher call.  Josh Shapiro is a fast rising star while Allyson is an experienced legislator and excellent fundraiser.  In terms of statewide electability, I'd narrowly go with Josh Shapiro but in terms of money and GOTV Schwartz may have the edge.

Championship round:

I'll go with Sestak vs. Schwartz.  Statewide electability vs. Legislative record/Fundraising.  Tough call.  I'll come back to this later. 

Murphy and Sestak should both be advised to stay out.  Both of their House seats would probably go Republican if the climate was bad without them running and Im not even sure that they could win statewide(they would be crushed by Spector). 

I don't know what the 2010 climate would be.  This is why I've been inclined to go with Allyson Schwartz.  PA 13 it has to be 1994 for the GOP to have a chance at the seat AND you need to run a strong name like Bruce Castor, Stewart Greenleaf or Dennis O'Brien.  Not so difficult for PA 7 or 8.  Regardless, I don't think any of them would beat Specter unless there's a strong Constitution candidate running in the General.

[Lunar]

http://blog.pennlive.com/politics/2009/04/gleason_toomey_did_not_want_to.html

The drip, drip seems orchestrated

Yeah, I posted his thoughts after a friend told me he didn't want to be 1 out of 100. This was before Specter's Stimulus vote and everything that followed...

You're right, that could easily be spun back at him, saying one vote does matter because of the 59/41 breakdown