House GOP in disarray.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Surprised it took this long. I assume there’s enough to take him out for the moment. Unless Dems come to his rescue, but they’d be idiots to. Making the GOP look absolutely dysfunctional would be good electorally

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

So what’s the ultimate outcome here? McCarthy’s goose seems pretty much cooked from what I can see, so who ends up Speaker? Scalise?

I don't see a guy who is fighting blood cancer wanting to take a big public facing job right now. PQG would know better than the rest of us how serious myeloma is (or even how to pronounce it), but I generally assume "under cancer treatment" is rough unless assured otherwise by people who know what they're talking about.

Gaetz has said he'd be fine with current GOP #3 Tom Emmer, Emmer has said he doesn't want it (knowing it's a poisoned chalice and he'd be as screwed as McCarthy is now). Emmer might be forced into it given he is broadly popular over the caucus and few other people are, but he knows as well as anyone else the eventual fate of a GOP Speaker is to be chased out by his conference and probably doesn't want that for himself.

Multiple myeloma is largely incurable, but great strides have been made in treatment over the past few decades.  The prognosis varies from case to case, though -- I've read of cases where people survived twenty-plus years after initial diagnosis. But yes, any way you slice it, most cancer treatments take their toll.  

It's nice that this community being dominated by hobbyist politics-watchers means that our actual areas of expertise are so diverse. You don't get this kind of context with professional-pundit-only discussions.

Probably one of the best things about this place. I'm still waiting for some opportunity for weather and politics to mesh together. I wasn't here for the rain in NOVA.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

So who would be possible "unity speakers"? Probably supported by most/all Dems and some Biden district Rs like Fitzpatrick. I've brought up Fred Upton elsewhere, and I think he fits best, but is there anyone else who might have their name thrown out there?

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

motion to table already up to 10 R Nays. McCarthy is done

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Good is going on about the "radical democrat agenda" atm.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Obligatory "I'm still a Republican" disclaimer, but all of this hot air by Good kinda rings hollow when (1) the Republicans are in the majority and (2) when a vast majority of the GOP caucus doesn't want to be here right now. 

Yeah Good is talking about all this stuff but has he introduced like, anything of note? Ever?

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Good is going on about the "radical democrat agenda" atm.

He's taking McCarthy to the slaughterhouse over Biden's victory in the Debt Ceiling negotiations.

It was strike one for McCarthy back then, but given his small majority I foresaw that there wouldn't be a strike three.

You can't do "business as usual" with a majority that small.

Pelosi could.

Progressives are weaker and becoming weaker, while the Freedom Caucus is stronger and becoming stronger.

Moreso Progressives are willing to be team players and have an agenda that actually involves getting stuff done.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

“They’re not over here, they’re over there”

Very profound Representative Armstrong.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Dan Bishop who iirc voted against tabling votes against vacating.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

"ABSOLUTELY NOT!"  (in a Shakespearean play type voice) from Mike Kelly of PA

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Pelosi and Peltola missed the vote?

Pelosi is in SF for Feinstein's funeral, flying back atm. Peltola is still in mourning from her husband's death.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1709304716339859555

Finally some furry representation

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

what did Van Drew just say?

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Final vote 216-206, he's outta here

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

With new votes coming in, vote is now 216-208

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Final is 216-210.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

So when is congress coming back in session

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

also, McHenry's gavel slam makes me think he's either really pissed off or he saw a cockroach and used the gavel to kill it.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Mace actually kind of is sounding like she voted against McCarthy from the left:

snippity snip

So that sounds like one possible vote for a compromise speaker? maybe?

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

The fracturing and dysfunction makes me think that a compromise speaker is actually the most likely outcome now. Still not high odds, but the highest of the possible options at the moment. Biden district Rs and Democrats end up putting up Fred Upton or someone similar, agreeing on evenly split committees, etc. Dems get more control, and the Rs voting for the compromise speaker end up getting bipartisan brownie points and a better look in their vulnerable districts.

Still, this is gonna take quite a while.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Dereich is 100% right. If the "coalition government" thing is to be even remotely possible, it needs to be about electing a Speaker Cuellar or Speaker Golden or Speaker Fitzpatrick or Speaker Bacon, not about having a bunch of Rs become Ds (which is what voting for Jeffries means). The compromise Speaker play would still be an unworkable fiasco, but at least it's something we can talk about.

There are simply more Rs than Ds in the House, albeit by a very small margin, and voting for the Democratic Leader for Speaker makes you a Democrat. It's literally the vote that defines who you are  politically. At least with a compromise Speaker fantasy they have a fig leaf rather than surrendering outright.

By the way, I know everyone here loves the "Speaker doesn't need to be a current Rep" rule but it's basically wildly unworkable for it to be someone else. Could people stop suggesting a bunch of ex-reps like Fred Upton?

I'd take 50-1 odds that the next Speaker is a Member of the House of Representatives. It's purely in one weird trick land to think otherwise.

I suppose thinking about it more that yes, Speaker Fitzpatrick or Gottheimer or whoever is more likely than Speaker Upton. I mostly suggested him because as a Republican with a good relationship with Biden, he seemed to make the most sense for the role.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Trump wouldn't have the votes. Republicans are delusional, but there are at least 5 in the house that are in swing/biden seats that aren't dumb enough to give themselves a one way ticket straight to losing re-election.

The fact it's even being considered is just another sign of how deep into lunacy Rs have gone, even more than before at least.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

I don't think they realize how big of a can of worms they're opening with this Jim Jordan nonsense. Letting someone tied to a college boys locker room wrestling sex abuse scandal be the face of your party isn't something that is going to work out well for them.

Yeah, Dems would have a field day with that. Many have seemingly forgotten it, but him being 2nd in line for the presidency and head of the House would definitely have more eyes go to that again.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

New twist:
https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1711882880278745244

hahahahah

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Nancy mace immediately becomes HP for me not because of presumed adultery but reminding me of my least favorite, most boring book I ever had to read.