House GOP in disarray.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1709225353107906586

This, along with Cohen changing his mind and saying he might just not be in the hall for the vote, solidifies that this is whipped. McCarthy better hope that he has won over enough of the January sticklers, which he probably hasn't.

I would not be surprised if there are a lot more or considerably fewer votes to retain when compared to January. Basically things will not break down the same.

In the first situation, a retention vote is not the same as multi-option speaker vote, and a few allies of Gaetz may back the incumbent but return to their camp when new options are forced. If the second scenario plays out, it will be because the initial Ukraine and Shutdown votes, which had almost half the party defect, convinced some new people that the current situation isn't working.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/lacaldwelldc/status/1709227128565195159?s=46

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

House is back from recess.  Here we go, boys and girls. 

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Given it took 15 ballots for McCarthy to take the gavel, we may just go without a speaker until 2024 if McCarthy is ousted.

[Ferguson97]

So I’m assuming that after McCarthy is ousted, Patty Murray is in line for the presidency after Kamala until a replacement Speaker is confirmed?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So I’m assuming that after McCarthy is ousted, Patty Murray is in line for the presidency after Kamala until a replacement Speaker is confirmed?

I believe so, yes.

[Not Me, Us]

So what’s the ultimate outcome here? McCarthy’s goose seems pretty much cooked from what I can see, so who ends up Speaker? Scalise?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So what’s the ultimate outcome here? McCarthy’s goose seems pretty much cooked from what I can see, so who ends up Speaker? Scalise?

Possibly, but he’s a staunch McCarthy ally so it might be hard for him to get Gaetz and his crew on board.

[soundchaser]

So what’s the ultimate outcome here? McCarthy’s goose seems pretty much cooked from what I can see, so who ends up Speaker? Scalise?

I'll admit I was wrong about this in January, but my hunch is we end up with a compromise speaker. The Gaetz crew will not put forth anyone palatable to the caucus at large, and vice versa.

[Pres Mike]

I honestly can't belive what I am reading/seeing.

Common sense says McCarthy makes a deal with a couple of centrist Democrats to save him and than change the rules. I suspect privately 200 Republicans would be just fine with this and hate Gaetz crew of MAGA.

But publically? McCarthy cant make a deal. And the 200 Republicans cant publically approve a deal. All about not upsetting the base.

So McCarthy is probably out. 40 days from a shutdown. All because a few Republicans won in New York because Katy Hochul is a bad governor.

[The Mikado]

So what’s the ultimate outcome here? McCarthy’s goose seems pretty much cooked from what I can see, so who ends up Speaker? Scalise?

I don't see a guy who is fighting blood cancer wanting to take a big public facing job right now. PQG would know better than the rest of us how serious myeloma is (or even how to pronounce it), but I generally assume "under cancer treatment" is rough unless assured otherwise by people who know what they're talking about.

Gaetz has said he'd be fine with current GOP #3 Tom Emmer, Emmer has said he doesn't want it (knowing it's a poisoned chalice and he'd be as screwed as McCarthy is now). Emmer might be forced into it given he is broadly popular over the caucus and few other people are, but he knows as well as anyone else the eventual fate of a GOP Speaker is to be chased out by his conference and probably doesn't want that for himself.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So what’s the ultimate outcome here? McCarthy’s goose seems pretty much cooked from what I can see, so who ends up Speaker? Scalise?

I don't see a guy who is fighting blood cancer wanting to take a big public facing job right now. PQG would know better than the rest of us how serious myeloma is (or even how to pronounce it), but I generally assume "under cancer treatment" is rough unless assured otherwise by people who know what they're talking about.

Gaetz has said he'd be fine with current GOP #3 Tom Emmer, Emmer has said he doesn't want it (knowing it's a poisoned chalice and he'd be as screwed as McCarthy is now). Emmer might be forced into it given he is broadly popular over the caucus and few other people are, but he knows as well as anyone else the eventual fate of a GOP Speaker is to be chased out by his conference and probably doesn't want that for himself.

Which is of course how we got Speaker Paul Ryan eight years ago.

[Oryxslayer]

I honestly can't belive what I am reading/seeing.

Common sense says McCarthy makes a deal with a couple of centrist Democrats to save him and than change the rules. I suspect privately 200 Republicans would be just fine with this and hate Gaetz crew of MAGA.

But publically? McCarthy cant make a deal. And the 200 Republicans cant publically approve a deal. All about not upsetting the base.

So McCarthy is probably out. 40 days from a shutdown. All because a few Republicans won in New York because Katy Hochul is a bad governor.

https://twitter.com/TylerDinucci/status/1709246296400216333?t=PCQ5uyqt7xsihLuKDT...

McCarthy rejects the option.  But the house is de facto without a majority if any Republican wants to do work without Gaetz the trolls. So maybe once he is removed they will try something different.

Like I said at the start of all this, the vote today is the GOP reaping what they postponed in January.  There was a lack of creativity then, and if that remains the same,  then we will probably be back in this thread in 50 days.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So what’s the ultimate outcome here? McCarthy’s goose seems pretty much cooked from what I can see, so who ends up Speaker? Scalise?

I don't see a guy who is fighting blood cancer wanting to take a big public facing job right now. PQG would know better than the rest of us how serious myeloma is (or even how to pronounce it), but I generally assume "under cancer treatment" is rough unless assured otherwise by people who know what they're talking about.

Gaetz has said he'd be fine with current GOP #3 Tom Emmer, Emmer has said he doesn't want it (knowing it's a poisoned chalice and he'd be as screwed as McCarthy is now). Emmer might be forced into it given he is broadly popular over the caucus and few other people are, but he knows as well as anyone else the eventual fate of a GOP Speaker is to be chased out by his conference and probably doesn't want that for himself.

Multiple myeloma is largely incurable, but great strides have been made in treatment over the past few decades.  The prognosis varies from case to case, though -- I've read of cases where people survived twenty-plus years after initial diagnosis. But yes, any way you slice it, most cancer treatments take their toll.  

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So what’s the ultimate outcome here? McCarthy’s goose seems pretty much cooked from what I can see, so who ends up Speaker? Scalise?

I don't see a guy who is fighting blood cancer wanting to take a big public facing job right now. PQG would know better than the rest of us how serious myeloma is (or even how to pronounce it), but I generally assume "under cancer treatment" is rough unless assured otherwise by people who know what they're talking about.

Gaetz has said he'd be fine with current GOP #3 Tom Emmer, Emmer has said he doesn't want it (knowing it's a poisoned chalice and he'd be as screwed as McCarthy is now). Emmer might be forced into it given he is broadly popular over the caucus and few other people are, but he knows as well as anyone else the eventual fate of a GOP Speaker is to be chased out by his conference and probably doesn't want that for himself.

Multiple myeloma is largely incurable, but great strides have been made in treatment over the past few decades.  The prognosis varies from case to case, though -- I've read of cases where people survived twenty-plus years after initial diagnosis. But yes, any way you slice it, most cancer treatments take their toll.  

It's nice that this community being dominated by hobbyist politics-watchers means that our actual areas of expertise are so diverse. You don't get this kind of context with professional-pundit-only discussions.

[The Mikado]

Anyway, McCarthy's road to survival has always looked something like this:

Step 1. Lose initial Motion to Vacate

Step 2. House Deadlocks for a bunch of votes

Step 3. House GOP realizes there's no other R who can hit magic number

Step 4.  Vote 7: "F**k it, bring back Kevin"

This is a play that is very risky and completely dependent on no other acceptable option presenting itself. If e.g. Tom Emmer or a similar figure ends up actually wanting the job, McCarthy is probably done. If not...Kevin might survive again in the most humiliating way possible.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

So what’s the ultimate outcome here? McCarthy’s goose seems pretty much cooked from what I can see, so who ends up Speaker? Scalise?

I don't see a guy who is fighting blood cancer wanting to take a big public facing job right now. PQG would know better than the rest of us how serious myeloma is (or even how to pronounce it), but I generally assume "under cancer treatment" is rough unless assured otherwise by people who know what they're talking about.

Gaetz has said he'd be fine with current GOP #3 Tom Emmer, Emmer has said he doesn't want it (knowing it's a poisoned chalice and he'd be as screwed as McCarthy is now). Emmer might be forced into it given he is broadly popular over the caucus and few other people are, but he knows as well as anyone else the eventual fate of a GOP Speaker is to be chased out by his conference and probably doesn't want that for himself.

Multiple myeloma is largely incurable, but great strides have been made in treatment over the past few decades.  The prognosis varies from case to case, though -- I've read of cases where people survived twenty-plus years after initial diagnosis. But yes, any way you slice it, most cancer treatments take their toll.  

It's nice that this community being dominated by hobbyist politics-watchers means that our actual areas of expertise are so diverse. You don't get this kind of context with professional-pundit-only discussions.

Probably one of the best things about this place. I'm still waiting for some opportunity for weather and politics to mesh together. I wasn't here for the rain in NOVA.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

So who would be possible "unity speakers"? Probably supported by most/all Dems and some Biden district Rs like Fitzpatrick. I've brought up Fred Upton elsewhere, and I think he fits best, but is there anyone else who might have their name thrown out there?

[DrScholl]

Democrats have no reason to trust Republicans on this, even with a compromise Speaker.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/jakesherman/status/1709255321640734807?s=46

[Oryxslayer]

So who would be possible "unity speakers"? Probably supported by most/all Dems and some Biden district Rs like Fitzpatrick. I've brought up Fred Upton elsewhere, and I think he fits best, but is there anyone else who might have their name thrown out there?

I saw some post about members talking about Cheney being brought back if it comes that, but I suspect that was Copium/hopium.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So who would be possible "unity speakers"? Probably supported by most/all Dems and some Biden district Rs like Fitzpatrick. I've brought up Fred Upton elsewhere, and I think he fits best, but is there anyone else who might have their name thrown out there?

I saw some post about members talking about Cheney being brought back if it comes that, but I suspect that was Copium/hopium.

Won't happen, but it would be great to see how many House R's would have apoplexy on the spot.

[Holmes]

So I’m assuming that after McCarthy is ousted, Patty Murray is in line for the presidency after Kamala until a replacement Speaker is confirmed?

Big moment for Murray fans possibly coming up.

[DrScholl]

The only way Democrats agreeing to a compromise would work is if the compromise is that the House would strictly operate for the rest of the term on passing bills to keep the government running and anything else logistical. No political or social agendas, but just procedural and operational work.

[Gass3268]

The only way Democrats agreeing to a compromise would work is if the compromise is that the House would strictly operate for the rest of the term on passing bills to keep the government running and anything else logistical. No political or social agendas, but just procedural and operational work.

50-50 composition on committees too