Scandal in the Wind 2023. George Santos gets Sashayed

[NewYorkExpress]

I can think of at least one Republican who would run in a special and make it at least a competitive race, Michael Montesano.

Democrats have a deeper bench in the district, I suppose, but a Suozzi comeback campaign (at least for a special) would probably be their best option.

[NewYorkExpress]

Since a vast portion of his credentials (who he is) is all fraud/lies, can the House choose not to seat him?
This idiot should not be in office.
And are there any laws in NY where he can be prosecuted for this?

I mean, I hate the way he is trying to downplay this atrocity ...

“To get down to the nit and gritty, I’m not a fraud. I’m not a criminal who defrauded the entire country and made up this fictional character and ran for Congress. I’ve been around a long time. I mean, a lot of people know me. They know who I am. They’ve done business dealings with me.”

“I’m not going to make excuses for this, but a lot of people overstate in their resumes, or twist a little bit. … I’m not saying I’m not guilty of that.”

I think there's enough moderates/establishment Republican types left that if Jeffries decides to try and go there, he will have the votes for it.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://mobile.twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1608223823270141952

I'm mildly surprised Donnelly's bothering. I guess this shows Santos really pissed off the Nassau County Republican Party, otherwise they'd be protecting him.

[NewYorkExpress]

The GOP turns on their own, especially if it is a gay Republican.

They'd rather have a straight white person than Santos at this point in that seat.

Santos probably isn't gay, Bronz.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://mobile.twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1608223823270141952

I'm mildly surprised Donnelly's bothering. I guess this shows Santos really pissed off the Nassau County Republican Party, otherwise they'd be protecting him.

Several people on Discord suggested Donnelly just wants Santos' job and is trying to chase him out to get at it?

Does she live in that district or NY-4?

I mean, no matter which one, she'd probably win a GOP primary in 2024 if she runs, but she's not going to get the nomination in a special over someone actually from the district (like Michael Montesano, for example).

[NewYorkExpress]

The GOP turns on their own, especially if it is a gay Republican.

They'd rather have a straight white person than Santos at this point in that seat.

Santos probably isn't gay, Bronz.

So he lied about that too?

Looks like it.

[NewYorkExpress]

Santos is not resigning, so why continue talking about this?

He either runs for reelection as an Independent or the GOP picks Martins to replace him on the ballot in 2024 and Suozzi, Lafazan or Zimmerman beats them in a three-way House race.

This seat flipped Republican because of the atrocious messaging by Dems on crime and the economy in NY.

Suozzi may have lost this seat to Santos anyway.

I really only agree with the last two parts of your statement. The Republican sentiment is strong enough on Long Island that I don't think Biden carries Nassau in 2024, meaning Martins or whoever is the GOP nominee should win in 2024, even in a three-way race. Santos isn't getting more than 1%.

[NewYorkExpress]

I could maybe buy 2024 presidential looking like 2022 Senate in NY, but not 2022 Gov. People are more willing to break for state offices than federal offices.

Now granted, Schumer lost Nassau County by 3 in 2022, but he didn't lose it by 11 like Hochul did.

I'm thinking right now Biden loses Nassau somewhere between Schumer and Hochul's margin. I'd guess around a 5-8 point loss.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/DerekMyers/status/1621618731125194753

https://twitter.com/DerekMyers/status/1621618733906071552

https://twitter.com/DerekMyers/status/1621618735768272900

https://twitter.com/DerekMyers/status/1621618743620018176

[NewYorkExpress]

Democrats should move to expel McCarthy if he refuses to hold a vote on expelling Santos. Just keep escalating.

[NewYorkExpress]

Democrats should move to expel McCarthy if he refuses to hold a vote on expelling Santos. Just keep escalating.

We should have a vote to expel every republican!

Great idea, but it's not practical.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/JoshLafazan/status/1648045680999518213

Maybe Suozzi doesn't run now? I'm not sure he beats Lafazan in a primary without at least a third Democrat jumping in, given progressives now hate him.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1653037401625997314

Another quality candidate for Democrats here.

[NewYorkExpress]

Well if a special is forced in one way or another,  look for Souzzi to attempt a triumphant return.

Gross. No Republicans pls.

Ah yes, the reliably Conservative Thomas Souzzi. Are we thinking of two completely different people with that name?

The VP of No Labels' group in Congress? The guy who just ran a conservative NY-Gov campaign?

At least have some semblance of what you're talking about before you condescend to people.

Souzzi would be the most conservative Democrat in the delegation, but he'd still vote to the left of any Republican in the country.

[NewYorkExpress]

Activist and non-profit co-founder Zak Malamad is the fourth candidate to enter the Democratic Primary.

The contest to determine the Democratic nominee in the indicted Republican Rep. George Santos’ seat is getting more crowded by the day.

Zak Malamed, a Democratic Party activist and nonprofit co-founder from Great Neck, New York, announced his bid for New York’s 3rd Congressional District on Monday.



“I really, truly never imagined that the most dishonest MAGA Republican would be representing me in my own congressional district,” Malamed told HuffPost, “And that alone really inspired me and moved me to step up and help and serve.”

“When you see your home or your family or those close to you struggling, you really have two choices,” he added. “You can run away and avoid them, or you can help — and I’m choosing to step up and help and serve in this moment.”

Malamed, 29, is the co-founder and executive director of The Next 50, a group that raises money to elect younger Democrats to public office. Malamed describes himself as a “common sense Democrat,” who identifies with the views of the business-friendly New Democrat Coalition.

Three other candidates have already entered the Democratic primary: Nassau County legislator Josh Lafazan, former state Sen. Anna Kaplan and law professor Will Murphy.

[NewYorkExpress]

Robert Garcia has introduced a motion to expel Santos.

Rep. Robert Garcia, D-Calif., introduced a resolution on the House floor Tuesday afternoon to expel GOP Rep. George Santos.

"I rise to give notice of my intent to raise a question of the privileges of the House. ... Rep. George Santos be, and hereby is, expelled from the House of Representatives," he said.

House Republicans can schedule this vote within two legislative days, but are likely to table it. It would need two-thirds majority to pass.

[NewYorkExpress]

Santos has a new campaign treasurer-himself.

Rep. George Santos has named himself the treasurer of his campaign committee, marking the latest twist in a monthslong saga over puzzling filings his campaign has made with federal regulators.

The new filing, made late Friday afternoon with the Federal Election Commission, comes a little more than a week after federal prosecutors unveiled a 13-count criminal indictment, charging the New York Republican with wire fraud, fraudulently obtaining Covid-19 unemployment benefits and lying about his personal finances on forms he submitted to the US House of Representatives as a candidate. He has denied wrongdoing and pleaded not guilty to the charges.

Santos defended the move Saturday, saying it was to “ensure compliance.”

“My intent is to operate above reproach,” the freshman lawmakers said on Twitter. “We will continue to build our campaign around professionals with subject matter expertise.”

He added that FEC records will be updated to reflect the change.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1699069587508388030?s=20

Shouln’t Santos just try to run out the clock to the end of 2024 so he can complete his term.

I mean, I imagine he’s far more concerned with staying out of prison or at least doing as little time as possible than he is with NY-3 staying in Republican hands

I’ll believe Santos is gone when I see it. He’s too shameless to resign voluntarily and criminal cases like this take time to reach a conclusion.

It has nothing to do with shame.  Part of any plea deal is going to be that he immediately resigns; that’s just how this stuff works.  That’s really the only leverage he has here.  You’re looking at this as though his priority is helping Republicans keep NY-3 and that is fundamentally wrong.  At this point, his first, second, and third priority is to avoid going to prison or failing that, to go to prison for as little time as possible.  No one in his current situation is going to care whether NY-3 flips or not.  

I think he tries his hardest to stall the proceedings so he doesn’t have to resign any time soon. I mean the Chris Collins case took over a year before he resigned.

I don't think you're quite grasping the tradeoff for Santos.  There's a real cost to him for delaying.  If he takes the hypothetical plea deal, he gets a lighter punishment -- possibly no jail time at all -- but in return, he must resign in the very near future.  If he tries to stall and keeps pushing things out, then the government will likely withdraw the plea deal, and then he's facing trial, conviction, and a longer sentence.  Santos obviously knows what he's actually guilty of, and has a good idea how likely it is that he'll be convicted.  

The tradeoff is staying another year-plus in Congress (no more than that, as he will surely lose reelection) at the cost of a possibly long prison sentence vs a short one or none at all.  Which would you choose?

I think it’s in the party’s best interest to keep him around so that the seat doesn’t flip back to the Democrats in the special.

It’s not up to the Republican Party.  It’s up to Santos and right now I guarantee you he doesn’t give a flip about anything but what’s in his best interest.  It is in his best interest to resign soon and plead out rather than drag this out.  The Republican Party’s interests or what gives it the best chance of holding NY-3 are both completely irrelevant.  With all due respect, to suggest otherwise is simply wishcasting.

How would you rate the chances a Democrat wins back the seat before November 2024?

Almost certain in a special, barring a disaster nominee for the Democrats and a perfect Republican nominee. It's less likely the Democrats will pick the seat up (or hold it, assuming they win the special) in the 2024 general with Santos gone. His resignation helps them in that regard.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1699069587508388030?s=20

Shouln’t Santos just try to run out the clock to the end of 2024 so he can complete his term.

I mean, I imagine he’s far more concerned with staying out of prison or at least doing as little time as possible than he is with NY-3 staying in Republican hands

I’ll believe Santos is gone when I see it. He’s too shameless to resign voluntarily and criminal cases like this take time to reach a conclusion.

It has nothing to do with shame.  Part of any plea deal is going to be that he immediately resigns; that’s just how this stuff works.  That’s really the only leverage he has here.  You’re looking at this as though his priority is helping Republicans keep NY-3 and that is fundamentally wrong.  At this point, his first, second, and third priority is to avoid going to prison or failing that, to go to prison for as little time as possible.  No one in his current situation is going to care whether NY-3 flips or not.  

I think he tries his hardest to stall the proceedings so he doesn’t have to resign any time soon. I mean the Chris Collins case took over a year before he resigned.

I don't think you're quite grasping the tradeoff for Santos.  There's a real cost to him for delaying.  If he takes the hypothetical plea deal, he gets a lighter punishment -- possibly no jail time at all -- but in return, he must resign in the very near future.  If he tries to stall and keeps pushing things out, then the government will likely withdraw the plea deal, and then he's facing trial, conviction, and a longer sentence.  Santos obviously knows what he's actually guilty of, and has a good idea how likely it is that he'll be convicted.  

The tradeoff is staying another year-plus in Congress (no more than that, as he will surely lose reelection) at the cost of a possibly long prison sentence vs a short one or none at all.  Which would you choose?

I think it’s in the party’s best interest to keep him around so that the seat doesn’t flip back to the Democrats in the special.

It’s not up to the Republican Party.  It’s up to Santos and right now I guarantee you he doesn’t give a flip about anything but what’s in his best interest.  It is in his best interest to resign soon and plead out rather than drag this out.  The Republican Party’s interests or what gives it the best chance of holding NY-3 are both completely irrelevant.  With all due respect, to suggest otherwise is simply wishcasting.

How would you rate the chances a Democrat wins back the seat before November 2024?

Almost certain in a special, barring a disaster nominee for the Democrats and a perfect Republican nominee. It's less likely the Democrats will pick the seat up (or hold it, assuming they win the special) in the 2024 general with Santos gone. His resignation helps them in that regard.

Helps who?

The Republicans.

There's a couple of reasons. The Democrats don't need NY-3 to make their majority in the House, they'll have a bunch of other targets, including in New York alone, and Santos not being on the ballot, plus likely facing a Democratic incumbent, with an attackable voting record in a swing district in what will be likely a neutral year in the House benefits Republicans (pending who their nominee is).

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1699069587508388030?s=20

Shouln’t Santos just try to run out the clock to the end of 2024 so he can complete his term.

I mean, I imagine he’s far more concerned with staying out of prison or at least doing as little time as possible than he is with NY-3 staying in Republican hands

I’ll believe Santos is gone when I see it. He’s too shameless to resign voluntarily and criminal cases like this take time to reach a conclusion.

It has nothing to do with shame.  Part of any plea deal is going to be that he immediately resigns; that’s just how this stuff works.  That’s really the only leverage he has here.  You’re looking at this as though his priority is helping Republicans keep NY-3 and that is fundamentally wrong.  At this point, his first, second, and third priority is to avoid going to prison or failing that, to go to prison for as little time as possible.  No one in his current situation is going to care whether NY-3 flips or not.  

I think he tries his hardest to stall the proceedings so he doesn’t have to resign any time soon. I mean the Chris Collins case took over a year before he resigned.

I don't think you're quite grasping the tradeoff for Santos.  There's a real cost to him for delaying.  If he takes the hypothetical plea deal, he gets a lighter punishment -- possibly no jail time at all -- but in return, he must resign in the very near future.  If he tries to stall and keeps pushing things out, then the government will likely withdraw the plea deal, and then he's facing trial, conviction, and a longer sentence.  Santos obviously knows what he's actually guilty of, and has a good idea how likely it is that he'll be convicted.  

The tradeoff is staying another year-plus in Congress (no more than that, as he will surely lose reelection) at the cost of a possibly long prison sentence vs a short one or none at all.  Which would you choose?

I think it’s in the party’s best interest to keep him around so that the seat doesn’t flip back to the Democrats in the special.

It’s not up to the Republican Party.  It’s up to Santos and right now I guarantee you he doesn’t give a flip about anything but what’s in his best interest.  It is in his best interest to resign soon and plead out rather than drag this out.  The Republican Party’s interests or what gives it the best chance of holding NY-3 are both completely irrelevant.  With all due respect, to suggest otherwise is simply wishcasting.

How would you rate the chances a Democrat wins back the seat before November 2024?

Almost certain in a special, barring a disaster nominee for the Democrats and a perfect Republican nominee. It's less likely the Democrats will pick the seat up (or hold it, assuming they win the special) in the 2024 general with Santos gone. His resignation helps them in that regard.

Helps who?

The Republicans.

There's a couple of reasons. The Democrats don't need NY-3 to make their majority in the House, they'll have a bunch of other targets, including in New York alone, and Santos not being on the ballot, plus likely facing a Democratic incumbent, with an attackable voting record in a swing district in what will be likely a neutral year in the House benefits Republicans (pending who their nominee is).

This is still a Biden+8 seat so it’ll be hard for Republicans to win.

If Democrats win the special do you think it’s possible Republicans get D’Esposito to run here instead?

I guess, but D'Esposito doesn't live in the district, and he'd be at risk of losing the primary to someone who does, plus Republicans would certainly be abandoning any chance of winning NY-4. They won't win there without an incumbent D'Esposito on the ballot in my opinion.

It's more likely that either Jack Martins or one of the Republicans in the State Assembly (possibly John Mikulin) gets the nomination instead in this scenario. Indeed, it's likely that one of them would be the nominee in any special election.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1699069587508388030?s=20

Shouln’t Santos just try to run out the clock to the end of 2024 so he can complete his term.

I mean, I imagine he’s far more concerned with staying out of prison or at least doing as little time as possible than he is with NY-3 staying in Republican hands

I’ll believe Santos is gone when I see it. He’s too shameless to resign voluntarily and criminal cases like this take time to reach a conclusion.

It has nothing to do with shame.  Part of any plea deal is going to be that he immediately resigns; that’s just how this stuff works.  That’s really the only leverage he has here.  You’re looking at this as though his priority is helping Republicans keep NY-3 and that is fundamentally wrong.  At this point, his first, second, and third priority is to avoid going to prison or failing that, to go to prison for as little time as possible.  No one in his current situation is going to care whether NY-3 flips or not.  

I think he tries his hardest to stall the proceedings so he doesn’t have to resign any time soon. I mean the Chris Collins case took over a year before he resigned.

I don't think you're quite grasping the tradeoff for Santos.  There's a real cost to him for delaying.  If he takes the hypothetical plea deal, he gets a lighter punishment -- possibly no jail time at all -- but in return, he must resign in the very near future.  If he tries to stall and keeps pushing things out, then the government will likely withdraw the plea deal, and then he's facing trial, conviction, and a longer sentence.  Santos obviously knows what he's actually guilty of, and has a good idea how likely it is that he'll be convicted.  

The tradeoff is staying another year-plus in Congress (no more than that, as he will surely lose reelection) at the cost of a possibly long prison sentence vs a short one or none at all.  Which would you choose?

I think it’s in the party’s best interest to keep him around so that the seat doesn’t flip back to the Democrats in the special.

It’s not up to the Republican Party.  It’s up to Santos and right now I guarantee you he doesn’t give a flip about anything but what’s in his best interest.  It is in his best interest to resign soon and plead out rather than drag this out.  The Republican Party’s interests or what gives it the best chance of holding NY-3 are both completely irrelevant.  With all due respect, to suggest otherwise is simply wishcasting.

How would you rate the chances a Democrat wins back the seat before November 2024?

Almost certain in a special, barring a disaster nominee for the Democrats and a perfect Republican nominee. It's less likely the Democrats will pick the seat up (or hold it, assuming they win the special) in the 2024 general with Santos gone. His resignation helps them in that regard.

Helps who?

The Republicans.

There's a couple of reasons. The Democrats don't need NY-3 to make their majority in the House, they'll have a bunch of other targets, including in New York alone, and Santos not being on the ballot, plus likely facing a Democratic incumbent, with an attackable voting record in a swing district in what will be likely a neutral year in the House benefits Republicans (pending who their nominee is).

This is still a Biden+8 seat so it’ll be hard for Republicans to win.

If Democrats win the special do you think it’s possible Republicans get D’Esposito to run here instead?

I guess, but D'Esposito doesn't live in the district, and he'd be at risk of losing the primary to someone who does, plus Republicans would certainly be abandoning any chance of winning NY-4. They won't win there without an incumbent D'Esposito on the ballot in my opinion.

It's more likely that either Jack Martins or one of the Republicans in the State Assembly (possibly John Mikulin) gets the nomination instead in this scenario. Indeed, it's likely that one of them would be the nominee in any special election.

If I were working with the House GOP, I’d advise Santos to agree not to run for re-election rather than resign mid-term. An open seat in a November election is a better bet for the GOP than a special election or running against a D incumbent.

Not sure if the prosecutors will accept that as part of a plea deal though.

I think you're underestimating how strong a hypothetical Martins candidacy could potentially be.

If I were the House Republicans, however, I'd punt on the special and wait and see which Democrat wins it. It's certainly possible the winning Democrat will have an attackable record that can be used to pick the seat back up next fall, and the GOP's gains last year probably were not a mirage, so they have that going for them.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1699069587508388030?s=20

Shouln’t Santos just try to run out the clock to the end of 2024 so he can complete his term.

I mean, I imagine he’s far more concerned with staying out of prison or at least doing as little time as possible than he is with NY-3 staying in Republican hands

I’ll believe Santos is gone when I see it. He’s too shameless to resign voluntarily and criminal cases like this take time to reach a conclusion.

It has nothing to do with shame.  Part of any plea deal is going to be that he immediately resigns; that’s just how this stuff works.  That’s really the only leverage he has here.  You’re looking at this as though his priority is helping Republicans keep NY-3 and that is fundamentally wrong.  At this point, his first, second, and third priority is to avoid going to prison or failing that, to go to prison for as little time as possible.  No one in his current situation is going to care whether NY-3 flips or not.  

I think he tries his hardest to stall the proceedings so he doesn’t have to resign any time soon. I mean the Chris Collins case took over a year before he resigned.

I don't think you're quite grasping the tradeoff for Santos.  There's a real cost to him for delaying.  If he takes the hypothetical plea deal, he gets a lighter punishment -- possibly no jail time at all -- but in return, he must resign in the very near future.  If he tries to stall and keeps pushing things out, then the government will likely withdraw the plea deal, and then he's facing trial, conviction, and a longer sentence.  Santos obviously knows what he's actually guilty of, and has a good idea how likely it is that he'll be convicted.  

The tradeoff is staying another year-plus in Congress (no more than that, as he will surely lose reelection) at the cost of a possibly long prison sentence vs a short one or none at all.  Which would you choose?

I think it’s in the party’s best interest to keep him around so that the seat doesn’t flip back to the Democrats in the special.

It’s not up to the Republican Party.  It’s up to Santos and right now I guarantee you he doesn’t give a flip about anything but what’s in his best interest.  It is in his best interest to resign soon and plead out rather than drag this out.  The Republican Party’s interests or what gives it the best chance of holding NY-3 are both completely irrelevant.  With all due respect, to suggest otherwise is simply wishcasting.

How would you rate the chances a Democrat wins back the seat before November 2024?

Almost certain in a special, barring a disaster nominee for the Democrats and a perfect Republican nominee. It's less likely the Democrats will pick the seat up (or hold it, assuming they win the special) in the 2024 general with Santos gone. His resignation helps them in that regard.

Helps who?

The Republicans.

There's a couple of reasons. The Democrats don't need NY-3 to make their majority in the House, they'll have a bunch of other targets, including in New York alone, and Santos not being on the ballot, plus likely facing a Democratic incumbent, with an attackable voting record in a swing district in what will be likely a neutral year in the House benefits Republicans (pending who their nominee is).

This is still a Biden+8 seat so it’ll be hard for Republicans to win.

If Democrats win the special do you think it’s possible Republicans get D’Esposito to run here instead?

I guess, but D'Esposito doesn't live in the district, and he'd be at risk of losing the primary to someone who does, plus Republicans would certainly be abandoning any chance of winning NY-4. They won't win there without an incumbent D'Esposito on the ballot in my opinion.

It's more likely that either Jack Martins or one of the Republicans in the State Assembly (possibly John Mikulin) gets the nomination instead in this scenario. Indeed, it's likely that one of them would be the nominee in any special election.

If I were working with the House GOP, I’d advise Santos to agree not to run for re-election rather than resign mid-term. An open seat in a November election is a better bet for the GOP than a special election or running against a D incumbent.

Not sure if the prosecutors will accept that as part of a plea deal though.

I think you're underestimating how strong a hypothetical Martins candidacy could potentially be.

If I were the House Republicans, however, I'd punt on the special and wait and see which Democrat wins it. It's certainly possible the winning Democrat will have an attackable record that can be used to pick the seat back up next fall, and the GOP's gains last year probably were not a mirage, so they have that going for them.

Zeldin won’t be on the ballot again in 2024, instead Trump will likely be the nominee and it’s hard to see how he wins a district he lost by 8 in 2020.

No, but the playbook Zeldin used will work for downballot Republicans (it won't for Trump).