Spanish elections and politics

[Velasco]

Brexit effect elevated Mariano Rajoy. Summary of the Enric Juliana chronicle in La Vanguardia.

24 million of Spaniards went to vote three days after Brexit, under a continuous flood of apocalyptic messages on the future of their employments, business, savings and pension plans. Nearly 8 million chose to leave things as they were. "We are in a bad situation, but we could be even worse". It's impossible to decipher the election result without the dark echoes of Brexit.

PP was going up slowly in the final days of the campaign, according to daily polls for internal consumption of parties and companies. That rise accelerated suddenly on Saturday and Sunday (Campaign finished on Friday night. The day prior to the vote is called "day of reflection"and there are no political events). PP rose from 30% to 33% in the weekend.

Also, Mariano Rajoy benefitted from other occurrence: more than one million of voters from Podemos and IU decided to stay at home or support PSOE in order to prevent its collapse. That was the way the Brexit effect affected the less disciplined detachment of the "New Left". In May they voted the "Mayors of Change". In December they backed Pablo Iglesias as a protest vote. This time they thought twice. Some of them because of dissatisfaction with the lack of agreement between parties. Some others because they don't like IU and the communist and republican banners. Others because they are IU supporters and don't trust the podemista professors. And the sinister echoes of Brexit: leftist voters have savings and pension plans too. After his conversion to socialdemocracy, between Friday and Sunday Pablo Iglesias lacked the resources to style himself as a champion of stability. The strategy of polarisation put forward by PP and wanted by Iglesias trapped the Podemos leader. Now there's a difficult discussion inside Podemos. Errejón supporters think that the alliance with IU undermined them because the Frente Popular is a significant that creates rejection. Followers of Pablo Iglesias think the campaign was not incisive enough. Juan Carlos Monedero, who is openly confronted to Errejón, thinks that Iglesias performed in the televised debate as a toothless lion.

The sudden acceleration of European contradictions mobilised millions of Spanish voters on the defensive, especially in the South. Podemos resisted better in the Basque Country and Catalonia thanks to its incardination in their respective national political spaces. The Spanish significant problem -a state with diverse nations- is reflected in the different colours of these regions on the map.

Mariano Rajoy has better cards to gain the investiture. The better results and the delicate European juncture play in his favour. Pedro Sánchez has saved his face, but he's too weak to defy the PSOE's old guard. PSOE needs to assimilate the result, rethink itself and leave the initiative to others. Albert Rivera has to deal with his previous veto to Rajoy. There will be a government by September, Berlin willing.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20160628/402806767588/efecto-brexit.html

[jaichind]

PSOE has declared it will neither join with PP, nor abstain.

What other options are there?

Frankly, I think HM should invite a technocrat ASAP.

I think this is the opening bid.  The threat of another election will, I think, push C to most likely join PP and PSOE to abstain (or at least part of the PSOE MPs which is good enough.)  We will see how this plays as Rajoy plays the waiting game. 

[ag]

PSOE has declared it will neither join with PP, nor abstain.

What other options are there?

Frankly, I think HM should invite a technocrat ASAP.

I think this is the opening bid.  The threat of another election will, I think, push C to most likely join PP and PSOE to abstain (or at least part of the PSOE MPs which is good enough.)  We will see how this plays as Rajoy plays the waiting game.  

My understanding is, they are not going to abstain, at least, as long as Rajoy is the one proposed by PP.  They may have left an opening to abstain if it is somebody else. Like a PP-affiliated technocrat. That is their bid.

Abstaining for Rajoy or even another "mainline" PP politician would kill PSOE. Far too may people would never forgive this, and Podemos is an available alternative. I think you may be underestimating the tribal feeling there.

[Vosem]

On the first ballot of an investiture, you need 176 votes to form a government, but on a subsequent one you need 176 votes to stop a government from forming.

If that were the case, PNV and CC would be all you needed. Nueva Canarias is only there to get the 176th vote.

But it is not the case. I just checked the constitution. On the second vote you, indeed, only need a plurality instead of majority. This is why PSOE abstaining works. However, if PNV abstains and everybody else votes predictably, it will be, at best (even with Nuevas Canarias in favor of PP) 171 in favor, 174 against, and this is NOT enough. PNV must actively support the PP government, or else it simply does not have enough votes. Curiously, CDC abstaining, while PNV votes against, would have been enough.

Article 33, Section 3: Si el Congreso de los Diputados, por el voto de la mayoría absoluta de sus miembros, otorgare su confianza a dicho candidato, el Rey le nombrará Presidente. De no alcanzarse dicha mayoría, se someterá la misma propuesta a nueva votación cuarenta y ocho horas después de la anterior, y la confianza se entenderá otorgada si obtuviere la mayoría simple.

If the Congress of Deputies, by the vote of an absolute majority of its members gives its confidence to the said candidate, the King names him President. If the said majority is not reached, the same proposal is submitted to a new vote fourty eight hours after the previous one, and the confidence shall be understood given if it obtains a simple majority <plurality>.

Ah. I was wrong. Sorry.

PSOE has declared it will neither join with PP, nor abstain.

What other options are there?

Frankly, I think HM should invite a technocrat ASAP.

I think this is the opening bid.  The threat of another election will, I think, push C to most likely join PP and PSOE to abstain (or at least part of the PSOE MPs which is good enough.)  We will see how this plays as Rajoy plays the waiting game. 

My understanding is, they are not going to abstain, at least, as long as Rajoy is the one proposed by PP.  They may have left an opening to abstain if it is somebody else. Like a PP-affiliated technocrat. That is their bid.

Abstaining for Rajoy or even another "mainline" PP politician would kill PSOE. Far too may people would never forgive this, and Podemos is an available alternative. I think you may be underestimating the tribal feeling there.

Where is the line between mainline PP politician and PP-affiliated technocrat? Even convincing PP to dump Rajoy in negotiations doesn't seem like it's going to be easy, and if the technocrat isn't clearly a member of PP, PP may not support him (and if he is, what difference is there between the technocrat and the mainline politician?). It seems like there's a lot more appetite for nonpartisan, technocratic governance among the PSOE than the PP.

[Velasco]

PSOE has declared it will neither join with PP, nor abstain.

What other options are there?

Frankly, I think HM should invite a technocrat ASAP.

I think this is the opening bid.  The threat of another election will, I think, push C to most likely join PP and PSOE to abstain (or at least part of the PSOE MPs which is good enough.)  We will see how this plays as Rajoy plays the waiting game.  

Neither PSOE nor Ciudadanos can easily withdraw what once was said. Albert Rivera tries to take the burden of backing Rajoy off by saying that only PSOE can supply enough support for the investiture. PSOE in neither case can support Rajoy, but once the dust settles they could consider abstaining for the shake of "stability". Of course there is the Monti option, but Rajoy is vindicated by the result and it's not easy that he's going to step aside. These things take time, but there won't be a third election.

EDIT: The king can't invite a technocrat without having secured said person is backed by someone.

[Zinneke]

Can the King do the samee as his namesake here in Belgium, and invite somebody else from whatever party to form a government, bypassing the head of the party?

This happened a lot during our governmental vacuum. De Wever was seen as a divisive figre due to his open seperatism, and someone more moderate was called upon to negotiate a deal on behalf of the N-VA?

Also, it look increasingly likely CUP are going to collapse the Catalan government, right?

[Velasco]

Can the King do the samee as his namesake here in Belgium, and invite somebody else from whatever party to form a government, bypassing the head of the party?

This happened a lot during our governmental vacuum. De Wever was seen as a divisive figre due to his open seperatism, and someone more moderate was called upon to negotiate a deal on behalf of the N-VA?

I should check to say if that's legally possible. I can tell you that the king is not going to invite someone who is not a party leader, unless said person is backed by a previous agreement between parties. During the previous period of talks, it was apparent that King Felipe was very careful in not going beyond his role and always tried to maintain a strict neutrality. Furthermore, after the December elections Rajoy and his Deputy PM Sáez de Santamaría tried to shorten the period to call for a new election, because PP never had the intent to negotiate with other parties. Felipe refused to indulge that pretension and invited Sánchez.

I think that it's more likely that Rajoy stays as PM than the other options, but it's too soon to make predictions. Now the situation has changed and Rajoy must take the initiative.

Also, it look increasingly likely CUP are going to collapse the Catalan government, right?

The CUP itself is tearing apart. There is a motion of confidence in September. In case Carles Puigdemont doesn't pass it, he will have to call new elections.

[ag]

EDIT: The king can't invite a technocrat without having secured said person is backed by someone.

Could the King, or a surrogate, quietly propose somebody to the party leaders? Would that be viewed as a no-no?

[Upsilon]

Just a comment...

If Podemos and Ciudadanos wouldn't exist, and if we would give the number of seats they obtained in this election to PSOE and respectively PP, we would have exactly the same problem to form a government with the traditional bipartisan system !

The problem doesn't seem to be the end of bipartisan system, but the fact that the catalan parties wont's support any government... If they have the balance of power, and this is the cas now, nothing can be done.

In fact, they have almost always had the balance of power except in the 2000 and the 2011 elections, so nothing new, except that these parties are now unacceptable. ("infréquentables" in French)

So we can say that the problem of governability of Spain relies essentially on the catalan parties and the catalan problem.

[ag]

Just a comment...

If Podemos and Ciudadanos wouldn't exist, and if we would give the number of seats they obtained in this election to PSOE and respectively PP, we would have exactly the same problem to form a government with the traditional bipartisan system !

The problem doesn't seem to be the end of bipartisan system, but the fact that the catalan parties wont's support any government... If they have the balance of power, and this is the cas now, nothing can be done.

In fact, they have almost always had the balance of power except in the 2000 and the 2011 elections, so nothing new, except that these parties are now unacceptable. ("infréquentables" in French)

So we can say that the problem of governability of Spain relies essentially on the catalan parties and the catalan problem.

Good observation.

Of course, the Catalan parties would happily support any government that gives them the referendum

Also, an interesting observation concerning outcomes of close elections in the (still) UK

[Velasco]

Just a comment...
So we can say that the problem of governability of Spain relies essentially on the catalan parties and the catalan problem.

Yes, Catalonia is at the core of the problem. That's something that have stressed Pedro Sánchez in the investiture debate and the Catalan parties. Sánchez to say that an agreement with Podemos would have required the support of ERC or CDC and that was unacceptable for the PSOE. ERC and CDC spokepersons to say that, unless they solve the "Catalan problem", Spain will remain ungovernable.

In fact, they have almost always had the balance of power except in the 2000 and the 2011 elections, so nothing new, except that these parties are now unacceptable. ("infréquentables" in French)

PSOE won majorities in 1982 and 1986. PP in 2000 and 2011.

Just a comment...

If Podemos and Ciudadanos wouldn't exist, and if we would give the number of seats they obtained in this election to PSOE and respectively PP, we would have exactly the same problem to form a government with the traditional bipartisan system !

The surge of Podemos and Ciudadanos and the end of the two-party system reflect, among other things, a sharp generational split. To take an example, the last victory of PSOE was in 2008. That year candidate José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero was backed by more than 11 million of votes. Seven years later (December 2015), those 11 million appear divided almost evenly in half. Most youth and the "new middle classes" went with Podemos, while PSOE retained retired people and housewives and manual workers splitted in two. Hence, the split of the progressive vote outlines a post-classist scenario where the class conflict between manual workers and professionals is replaced by an intergenerational conflict between passive and active classes, in which the latter struggle in the increasingly precarious labour market. The share of the votes between PP and C's was more uneven but their base of support is more or less similar. So we have that establishment parties are backed by a coalition of passive classes while youngsters back the "new politics". The problem is that Spain presents a demographic imbalance and a very low birth rate: this year deaths exceeded births for the first time. At the electoral level, this means that passive classes and older generations prevail and any danger sign will reinforce their bet for security over any other consideration. This time Brexit was that signal. So perhaps, in order to reconcile the right of the younger people to have a vital horizon and the right of the older people to preserve their social achievements, the sensible solution would have been an intergenerational pact. According to an article in El País by UNED professor Juan Jesús González, after the December elections it was the moment for a triangulation between the two parties that represent the "new politics" (Podemos and C's) and the PSOE. González blames mainly Pablo Iglesias, but in my opinion Albert Rivera was equally intransigent. The "Cross Coalition" wanted by Sánchez was impossible due to the crossed vetoes between Podemos and C's.  

[Nanwe]

Just a comment...
So we can say that the problem of governability of Spain relies essentially on the catalan parties and the catalan problem.

Yes, Catalonia is at the core of the problem. That's something that have stressed Pedro Sánchez in the investiture debate and the Catalan parties. Sánchez to say that an agreement with Podemos would have required the support of ERC or CDC and that was unacceptable for the PSOE. ERC and CDC spokepersons to say that, unless they solve the "Catalan problem", Spain will remain ungovernable.

In fact, they have almost always had the balance of power except in the 2000 and the 2011 elections, so nothing new, except that these parties are now unacceptable. ("infréquentables" in French)

PSOE won majorities in 1982 and 1986. PP in 2000 and 2011.

And technically also in '89, as the absence of the two HB deputies meant the PSOE had the absolute majority.

[Velasco]

Variation in percentage of the vote for Unidos Podemos, with regard to the addition of the Podemos and IU (and MÉS in the Balearic Islands) vote in December 2015.

[Nanwe]

Could you do the same for PSOE? I think they grew up in the urban areas but lost in its traditional strongholds, but a more in-depth picture would be interesting.

[Velasco]

Could you do the same for PSOE? I think they grew up in the urban areas but lost in its traditional strongholds, but a more in-depth picture would be interesting.

Yes, it'd be interesting so I will make a PSOE map in a few days.

[Velasco]

Variation in percentage of the vote for the PSOE between December 2015 and June 2016

Could you do the same for PSOE? I think they grew up in the urban areas but lost in its traditional strongholds, but a more in-depth picture would be interesting.

They lost seats in Andalucia apparently. Is it because of the infighting?

I think the PSOE loses in Andalusia, Extremadura and Castilla-La Mancha are due to the mobilisation of abstentionists in rural areas who voted for PP. It's possible that there was some small vote transfer from PSOE to PP in those places, or maybe PSOE lost some thousands of voters to abstention. Without provincial analysis of the vote it's hard to tell. The other noticeable thing is a slight PSOE recovery in big cities such as Madrid, Valencia or Zaragoza.  

[Antonio the Sixth]

So basically, swing from Podemos to PSOE in the North and swing from PSOE to PP in the South?

[Nanwe]

Variation in percentage of the vote for the PSOE between December 2015 and June 2016

Could you do the same for PSOE? I think they grew up in the urban areas but lost in its traditional strongholds, but a more in-depth picture would be interesting.

They lost seats in Andalucia apparently. Is it because of the infighting?

I think the PSOE loses in Andalusia, Extremadura and Castilla-La Mancha are due to the mobilisation of abstentionists in rural areas who voted for PP. It's possible that there was some small vote transfer from PSOE to PP in those places, or maybe PSOE lost some thousands of voters to abstention. Without provincial analysis of the vote it's hard to tell. The other noticeable thing is a slight PSOE recovery in big cities such as Madrid, Valencia or Zaragoza.  

Thanks! It is really interesting to see, indeed. It's rather surprising that the PSOE improved where it took a beating on December, essentially urban areas and peripheral areas where they are supposed to be very handicapped vis-à-vis C's and Podemos, and then that in the stronghold of the southern rural world they lose. It's surprising because their campaign really wasn't that good, I imagine there must be some effect of unhappy people from Podemos coming back because of the negotiations? Still wouldn't explain Andalucia. But this very bad results have weakened Susana Díaz and paradoxically (despite still losing 5 seats and 100k votes), strengthen Sánchez's position.

[jaichind]

Felipe Gonzalez Urges PSOE Not to Block Rajoy Minority Govt
Thursday, July 7, 2016 02:55 AM
by Charles Penty
(Bloomberg) -- Former Socialist Prime Minister Felipe Gonzalez said in an article in El Pais newspaper that if necessary his party should not block a minority govt led by acting PM Mariano Rajoy.
Socialists role should be as a “responsible opposition” to PP; party should not enter a coalition with Rajoy, Gonzalez says
Everyone agrees that third round of elections in Spain is not an option: Gonzalez

[Velasco]

So basically, swing from Podemos to PSOE in the North and swing from PSOE to PP in the South?

It's a bit more nuanced than that and I think it depends on the region or the province. At general level, it seems plausible that PP gains came mainly from Ciudadanos and abstentionists. The PP campaign has proved effective in attracting those groups of voters (and the appeal to the voters' fear was arguably boosted by the repercussion of Brexit in media). Also, the PP campaign was focused in rural areas and social groups where they are strong like retired people and pensioners. As well, they worked well in smaller provinces with seats depending on small vote swings. As I said before, I think that PP could have received some PSOE transfers in the rural areas of Southern Spain, but maybe they were small.

As for the UP loses, they are likely due to multiple factors. The bulk of the UP loses went to abstention, but in places like Madrid and urban areas like Zaragoza, Valencia and others it's very likely an UP-PSOE transfer. Maybe there was a small transfer in some northern regions. However, Podemos resisted better in Catalonia, Basque Country and Navarre. In Catalonia ECP lost some 80k voters due to the lower turnout, but in terms of vote share and seats stayed the same. In Basque Country and Navarre UP had little gains in vote share and won an extra seat in Biscay province at the expense of the PNV. The socialists had very similar results in Catalonia, losing one seat in Lleida province to the PP due to a very small vote swing. In the Basque Country and Navarre, they improved very slightly. In the Basque Country the leftwing nationalist EH Bildu lost nearly 2% of the vote share and in Navarre Geroa Bai plummeted. Such loses are attributable to the 'Podemos effect'.

Thanks! It is really interesting to see, indeed. It's rather surprising that the PSOE improved where it took a beating on December, essentially urban areas and peripheral areas where they are supposed to be very handicapped vis-à-vis C's and Podemos, and then that in the stronghold of the southern rural world they lose. It's surprising because their campaign really wasn't that good, I imagine there must be some effect of unhappy people from Podemos coming back because of the negotiations? Still wouldn't explain Andalucia. But this very bad results have weakened Susana Díaz and paradoxically (despite still losing 5 seats and 100k votes), strengthen Sánchez's position.

Maybe the repercussion of the negotiations had some effect in Madrid and other places. However, there are more factors that can explain the reasons why more than 1 million of the Podemos and IU voters in December didn't support UP in June. Among others, Podemos and IU voters unhappy with the alliance, the fear factor (PP campaign and Brexit), negative campaigning in media and at the justice courts (the week after the elections, the judge denied by the sixth time that lawsuit alleging illegal financing fro Venezuela and Iran due to blatant inconsistency, but it appeared in media during the campaign), voter fatigue and lack of electoral tension, etcetera. We'll have to wait the CIS post-election survey or other analyses.

[Velasco]

Leading party in the municipality of Madrid by census section:

The map is taken from here:

http://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/madrid/2016-06-25/calles-madrid-votos-pp-podemos-elecciones-generales_1222988/
 
There is a census section located in Salamanca neighbourhood where PP got 77.7% of the vote. The landmark building of this section is Amboage Palace, which was the provisional site of the City Hall during the Civil War and was sold to Italy in 1940 to become in the Italian embassy. A woman called Candela says that she supports PP because it has government experience, but she thinks that perhaps Rajoy must be replaced because everybody is against him. She shares the typical opinion of all PP voters: "there is corruption in all parties".

In Zurita street, located in the Lavapiés neighbourhood (District Centro), there is a site called Teatro del Barrio, the place where Podemos was launched. It's a cultural cooperative managed by actor and Podemos activist Alberto San Juan. UP got 47% in the census section that covers two blocks of Zurita streets featuring Teatro del Barrio and a venue called La Marabunta, a mix of café and bookstore where Podemos was born. Apparently, there is another census section in Lavapiés where UP got 56.7%.

[DavidB.]

The Madrid branch of IU tweeted this... "interesting" cartoon:

[Velasco]

The Madrid branch of IU tweeted this... "interesting" cartoon:

IU Madrid claims that the cartoon was not made by them as is conveyed to condemn "the role of Israel and the USA in geopolitics", and "in neither case to offend Jewish people". The cartoon features on top "Guerras No" ("No Wars") and calls people to demonstrate before the US embassy on July 10. President Obama is going to visit Spain and will land tonight in Seville. The Israel embassy claims that "the use of anti-semitic stereotypes infamous by their use in the blackest period of European History deserves the strongest condemnation" from "all the Spanish democratic forces".

[Zanas]

The Madrid branch of IU tweeted this... "interesting" cartoon:

IU Madrid claims that the cartoon was not made by them as is conveyed to condemn "the role of Israel and the USA in geopolitics", and "in neither case to offend Jewish people". The cartoon features on top "Guerras No" ("No Wars") and calls people to demonstrate before the US embassy on July 10. President Obama is going to visit Spain and will land tonight in Seville. The Israel embassy claims that "the use of anti-semitic stereotypes infamous by their use in the blackest period of European History deserves the strongest condemnation" from "all the Spanish democratic forces".

At first I thought it was an Arab man and an Israeli man making out, which I found pretty cool ! Then it struck me and... it's not of very good taste...

[Velasco]

Ana Pastor (PP) elected new speaker of Congress with the support of Ciudadanos. Pío Escudero (PP) re-elected speaker of the Senate.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/07/19/inenglish/1468915263_766500.html

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In other news, CDC (Democratic Convergence of Catalonia) was renamed PDC (Catalan Democratic Party) on July 10.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_Democratic_Party

it's not of very good taste...

It's not of very good taste, indeed. It's just an inept cartoon that gives a good pretext to the other party's outrage.