Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

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Kyiv is a city of nearly three million people. If a fight was put up for it, it would be messy.

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If there's an invasion then 'optics' are really the least important of things...

When you choose to be the leader of a country, part of the deal is you lose the right to treat your life as more important than the country: kings come and go, the state remains.

So the leader is going to retreat while telling the troops and citizens "fight hard and be brave"? What does that do to morale when it would already be incredibly low?

Depends on if they can effectively form a government in exile. Queen Wilhelmina did just fine out of the Second World War.

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I need argument to to prove ww3 isn’t going to happen because of this to calm my step siblings down any tips

Both Zelenskiy and the defense minister of Ukraine have denied that war will happen soon and they have yet to provide a statement to the contrary. There’s been limited mobilization, and indeed Zelenskiy has instead been focusing on internal dissidents necessary to keep a United government.

The Democrats didn’t care in Georgia, and the last few years of throwing our allies under the bus signal they won’t get involved by fighting a war with Russia.

Germany does not care and has signaled that they won’t do s•••, even though this is the most pro-US government since Konrad Adenauer.

Russia is currently suffering already from a weak economy, a weak grasp of their backyard after a period of stabilization all of last year, and internal dissent at all time highs. Fighting a war against a state and then dealing with the aftermath on an economically worthless territory filled to the brim with hostile proxy groups isn’t worth it.

Georgia was under Bush Jr in 2008.

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Everything looks pretty much as you would expect if they were in fact going to invade.

This doesn't mean it is 100% certain that they will.

However, if it looks like a duck, if it walks like a duck, and it quacks like a duck, it could in fact actually be a duck. With 80 years without a major duck in Europe, it is understandable that we have started to get to the point where a duck seems to many people to be almost unimaginable. But couldn't what looks like a duck actually be a duck?

If so, all we can do at this point is hope that the damage and destruction that will follow is not too severe.

The people of the former Yugoslavia would question the lack of presence of a major duck.

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He could keep them there for months if he wanted.

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https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1493964155547705351

Lot of Israelis with relatives in Russia they can currently visit without a visa.

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Then the Russians may well do the opposite. They can't prove Biden right, can they?

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Er, so, a delegation of British political figures - including Mick Antoniw (AS for Pontypridd and a member of the Welsh Government), Adam Price (leader of Plaid Cymru), Mick Whelan (General Secretary of ASLEF) and the journalist Paul Mason have turned up in Kiev with the aim of showing solidarity with the people of Ukraine against official government travel advice.

They must have had a bit of problem getting travel insurance then - most providers will got cover going to somewhere against FCDO advice, those advisories being used extensively when Covid was worse.

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To quote Dune, "Those hair-splitters up there will take any point".

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Reports the An-225, the largest plane in the world, has been destroyed at Hostomel.

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I am slowly losing my mind obsessing over this airport

I had never heard of it until today. Warfare teaches you geography, I've often found.

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Which would be deeply embarrassing for the VDV.

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Ukraine's National Guard just beat VDV Spetsnaz at Hostomel? Are ya kidding me?

It's a delay of the inevitable, but that's incredible!

So not only does Putin face crippling sanctions but his army is getting beat by a bunch of Slav squatters with Jean jackets and stingers!

They're not really Slav squatters. They've got plenty of experience, including in Iraq and Afghanistan.

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This isn't Iraq in 2003, that's for sure. The Iraqis weren't prepared to die for Saddam even if they weren't always fans of the US.

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https://twitter.com/Eurovision/status/1497243799889711104

Putin has overplayed his hand now guys.

All the UK got in 2003 was nil points.

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Russia is repositioning Intercontential Ballistic Missiles near Moscow
https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1497306128111353856

Genuine question: Why would you need to move ICBMs to use them? "Inter-continental" is in the name.

Dispersal from garrisons that might be targeted to launch sites in the countryside. Those ones can't stay on permanent alert.

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A PRC abstention though is probably a significant move.

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Agree. You cannot overstate the morale boost he is providing.

If the Germans had entered the outskirts of London in WW2, even Winston Churchill would have fled to a new capitol.

Churchill said to his Cabinet he was prepared to die fighting.

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Wars of aggression are covered by the Rome Statute now. Not the case in 2003.

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Historic speech by Olaf Scholz. Germany completely changes its defense policy. It sounded like he would invest 100 billion EURO right here and now in military equipment and from now on spend at least 2% of GDP yearly on defense. This will furthermore have a ripple effect in that other NATO countries - like my own - have been hiding behind Germany in not spending the 2%. That will almost certainly change now.

This could actually be a real turning point. It could also signal a new world order where democratic Europe rises from the pathetic depence on the United States.

It’s worth noting ofc that even at the height of the Cold War the land forces between each side were not hugely outmatched in quality- and that was with a much larger USSR and a number of Warsaw Pact states.

Putin cannot go toe to toe with a U.K. France and Germany at Cold War levels of spending- along with other countries like Poland.

The WP countries had larger and more capable standing armies, but NATO could match them with mobilisation.

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Extremely good thread analyzing the Russian effort so far:
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1498381975022940167?s=20&t=NdAdtfsO...

I agree 100% with this and this is why I do believe Ukraine will fall.

The sanctions are biting significantly. We also don't know just how good the Russian stocks of weaponry, fuel, etc. are.

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What is likely to be the last update on the EU jets story: https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-promise-to-supply-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-gets-grounded/

The Ukranian army post claiming jets would arrive has been deleted, and Poland has finally confirmed (after some ambiguity from their President) that it’s not happening.

Presumably, the Ukranian transports parked on a Polish airfield are for carrying other supplies or for safekeeping during a conflict they’re not fit for. Perhaps they came anticipating jets that were never guaranteed.

Romania was requested to give jets and refused to comment; the others refused. However, Romania did return the errant Ukranian Su-27 today, and the only other craft they have that Ukrainians could fly is the Yak-52 trainer (which is likely to be less impactful than a purpose-built fighter/bomber) and the MiG-21 (which is increasingly obsolete - outside of testing during refurbishment for other countries’ fleets, Ukraine hasn’t flown many of these for a long time).

Turkey has not responded to Ukraine’s request for more Bayraktars. They had ordered lots more at the start of the invasion proper, but new ones had to be manufactured and faster delivery would require some depletion of Turkish army or training stocks.

No mention of SAMs, but I would expect they’re not getting any of those, either. Expect RuAF supremacy soon, and more unchallenged convoys.

Remember Russia is also depleting its stocks.

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I was more talking about their missiles, especially long-range stuff.

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Su-24s are 1970s-vintage strike aircraft with the NATO reporting name "Fencer". If those are managing to strike Russian convoys, then their air defence is shocking.

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RT UK has gone off air as well - the feed came from EU member Luxembourg. Ofcom were looking at a load of complaints as well.