Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[YPestis25]

“It was Sam's first view of a battle of Men against Men, and he did not like it much. He was glad that he could not see the dead face. He wondered what the man's name was and where he came from; and if he was really evil of heart, or what lies or threats had led him on the long march from his home; and if he would rather have stayed there in peace.”

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1497332333778718720

This is an insanely risky move by Russia — it’s not like they’ve got Kyiv fully encircled yet. Putin is clearly in a hurry. If the Russians fail, which we can only hope they do, it would be a major blow to their entire plan. The Ukrainians will have had time to take up good positions throughout the day, so they should be able to put up a good fight (after all, they have already demonstrated their indomitable spirit many times over), but this could get extremely nasty for both soldiers and civilians.

Remember the 3:1 rule of combat: in order that for the attacker to win the battle, his forces should be at least three times the force of the defender. From what I've been seeing, Russia doesn't have three times the manpower in the Kyiv area.
Saw this from a twitter account that's been covering the war well:
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497339502892834816?s=20&t=d6wbs_j...

[Person Man]

Incredibly, incredibly based:

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1497320380968669199?s=20&t=d6wbs_jqec92...

We've received so much evidence that Ukraine's people are incredible warriors and patriots. Amazing.

It’s like a modern version of 300.

[Torie]

Russia vetoes the UN Security Council resolution that called on Moscow to halt the attack on Ukraine, withdraw troops.  PRC abstains (leaving it to Russia to do veto themselves.)

Nope, it was a veto of a motion to chat. That was by design, to avoid a double veto that included China. Al Jezzera does the best coverage. They explained it all.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1497343147185258509

[Meclazine for Israel]

More sanctions from the sporting world:

[Coldstream]

One thing I’ve not seen talked about, what’s happening to the remaining Pro-Russian politicians in Ukraine? The so called “opposition platform” made up of ex Party of Regions officials came 2nd in the 2019 parliamentary elections with 43 seats. I’d be interested to see if any of them have chosen to stand with their people or run off to support their Kremlin paymasters.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-crisis-mp-interview-ak-47-112600107.html

Former Ukrainian president from 2014-2019 takes to the streets of Kyiv to fight the Russians

Wow I hope he’s alright

Imagine any of America's billionaires doing this. Poroshekno is wealthy enough he could have left on a private jet and be in the Caymans already.

Russia probably thought they'd be cowards like Ashraf Ghani.

[KaiserDave]

One thing I’ve not seen talked about, what’s happening to the remaining Pro-Russian politicians in Ukraine? The so called “opposition platform” made up of ex Party of Regions officials came 2nd in the 2019 parliamentary elections with 43 seats. I’d be interested to see if any of them have chosen to stand with their people or run off to support their Kremlin paymasters.

Just adding that "second" was still an incredibly dismal performance. SotP cleaned house and won a massive supermajority. I am also curious as to whether the Opposition Platform people are traitors or not.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1497345604816711681?s=20&t=g4bgYhgxLsexV...

[jaichind]

In addition to PRC abstaining on the UN Security Council resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and calling for the immediate withdrawal of its forces that Russia vetoed, India and UAE also abstain.  India was expected to abstain (Russia claims that Modi promised this to Putin).  India indeed did act as promised.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg reports that Wall Street firms including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc are telling the Biden administration to not take Russia off SWIFT saying that doing so will have far-reaching fallout that could hurt the global economy.

[Storr]

This could easily be propaganda, but I so badly hope it is true: https://twitter.com/expatua/status/1497333031924862979?s=20&t=APc4FI7KDIzKfn...

[2952-0-0]

One thing I’ve not seen talked about, what’s happening to the remaining Pro-Russian politicians in Ukraine? The so called “opposition platform” made up of ex Party of Regions officials came 2nd in the 2019 parliamentary elections with 43 seats. I’d be interested to see if any of them have chosen to stand with their people or run off to support their Kremlin paymasters.

If they had any self-awareness, they would have fled to Russia weeks ago. Anyone left in Kyiv would have been rounded up and executed yesterday morning.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1497345604816711681?s=20&t=g4bgYhgxLsexV...

How many points is that?

[Silent Hunter]

A PRC abstention though is probably a significant move.

[Omega21]

https://twitter.com/markhertling/status/1497253373648719876?s=21

Oh yeah here’s this too

 May the driver of that tank have their spine shattered till they are paralyzed, then have a group of partisans beat them to death Over the course ofseveral excruciating hours.

Various sources making contradicting claims about the vehicle origins. Why?

Strela 10 - light AA, currently used by both sides.

Ukrainian forces seen hiding such vehicles in residential areas in the past few days. (so they can quickly "pop out" in case of helicopter assault)

No Russian mark on the vehicle is clearly visible ( "Z" sign etc.)


What also might be possible is that the vehicle was captured or not marked on purpose, so still operated by Russians, as a few RU saboteurs with Ukranian trucks and uniforms have already been captured or killed in the area.

Anyway, some are even claiming this might not be a hit on purpose, saying visibility is very bad from  tracked vehicles like this.

All in all, just a lot of conflicting info everywhere.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1497345604816711681?s=20&t=g4bgYhgxLsexV...

Ghost of Kiev.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg reports that Wall Street firms including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc are telling the Biden administration to not take Russia off SWIFT saying that doing so will have far-reaching fallout that could hurt the global economy.

What the Bloomberg report does not say is that getting Russia off SWIFT might accelerate PRC-Russia plans for de-dollarization.   Europe would not care about this as much but the USA will care a lot.

[2952-0-0]

A PRC abstention though is probably a significant move.

No, it isn't. The PRC abstained through resolutions criticizing Russia in 2014. Going all-in and supporting Russia is just too costly, from both a monetary and political perspective. Beijing will give plenty of lip service, and will make plenty of symbolic acts of support for Moscow, but will not and cannot substantially compensate for the economic damage that Putin has wrecked on Russia.

[Dereich]

Petition to unmute BigSerg on this thread to widen perspectives shared

X TheReckoning

You've tried this a few times. Its not happening.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Russian Tank vs....

Ukrainian Car

https://youtu.be/-xcfJY6QwnY

Miraculously, the guy survived.

[It’s so Joever]

Petition to unmute BigSerg on this thread to widen perspectives shared

X TheReckoning

Yes but ONLY if nobody enforces rules against mocking the living s**t out of him.

[Person Man]

Petition to unmute BigSerg on this thread to widen perspectives shared

X TheReckoning

He can come back when the fighting  stops.

[KaiserDave]

Petition to unmute BigSerg on this thread to widen perspectives shared

X TheReckoning

I have defeated and routed him like the National Guard did to the VDV. He is not coming back.