Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[omar04]

92,96%

 47,43%
52.097.736 Lula

 44,05%
48.387.892 Bolsonaro

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Despite Lula narrowly taking Minas it looks like Zema will cruise to reelection with over 50% of the vote. Lula's pivot to the center might have helped him pick up certain anti-Bolsonaro right wing voters but it seems to have hurt the left significantly downballot.

Also, the slight swing to Bolsonaro in the Northeast is somewhat holding up so the late swing isn't as pronounced as last time. Big polling miss, but then I seem to remember the polls seriously underestimating Bolsonaro in the first round last time too so let's not just let them scapegoat the lack of a census. My naive guess of the (second round) final margin assuming nothing changes over October would be 54-46 Lula.

The main risk for Lula is that, having based his campaign on societal rejection of Bolsonaro, a lot of his first round votes come from flaky center right PSDB types. It's possible that some of them reconsider their loyalty now that they know Bolsonaro has more support than they thought. I doubt there are enough such voters to actually give Bolsonaro a win but they could make it closer than expected.

[Mike88]

Cláudio Castro elected as Governor of Rio de Janeiro. 58% vs 28% for Freixo.

[jaichind]

Bolsonaro at 44.7% with 86% in.  The last 10% of the Brazil count is always brutal for the Right.  I figure that this means Bolsonaro will be at 43.1% at the end.  This would put Lula most likely around 48.3%

What percentage of the last 10% is Lula expected to win

According to my math, he’d need 80% of that last 8% to be counted to make it 50.01

I expect Bolsonaro to lose around 1% of his vote share in the last 10% of the count.

[omar04]

I recommend looking at the official website, other websites take a moment to update: https://resultados.tse.jus.br/oficial/app/index.html#/eleicao/resultados

[Cassius]

I expect a positive trading day in Brazil's equity and FX markets tomorrow.   The market would now expect Lula to shift to the Center given the overperformance by Bolsonaro and the Right forces overall.

God is unhappy with you

God is dead but The Market is immortal.

[Pivaru]

The race in Minas Gerais has been called, Zema has been reelected. Kalil underperformed and Zema is almost at the same number he was given in some of yesterday's polls (nearly 57%). Keep an eye on him, he's a contender for 2026. Bolsonaro's ally, Cleitinho, also seems to have won in the senate, defeating the incumbent candidate, who was a Lula ally.

[omar04]

93,30%

 47,46%
52.327.881 Lula

 44,03%
48.541.40 Bolsonaro

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

93.46% Reporting

LULA- 52,427,296 (47.47%)
BOLSONARO- 48,618,895 (44.02%)

By my dumbass calculations, We're probably looking at about 48.5%-43.1%

[omar04]

93,87%

47,51%  •  52.715.467 Lula

43,98%  •  48.798.187 Bolsonaro

[Pivaru]

In Rio Grande do Norte, the left split the vote between former Natal mayor Carlos Eduardo and federal deputy Rafael Motta and the state ended up electing a Bolsonaro ally, his former minister Rogerio Marinho.

Eduardo was supposed to win by an 11% margin according to yesterday's polls.

[Mike88]

Eduardo Leite is still in doubt for the runoff. More than 98% counted in Rio Grande do Sul, and the difference between him and the PT candidate is bellow 0.10%.

[Pres Mike]

If I did the math right, Lula has the most votes directly casted for him than any other human in history right? This is his sixth president election stretching to 1989

Not so fun fact, runner up is Trump with 136 million votes between 2016 and 2020. Obama is third at 134 million

[jaichind]

Historically if Lula gets to the second round he always overperforms in the second round (1989 2002 2006). 

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

94.05% Reporting

LULA- 52,849,990 (47.54%)
BOLSONARO- 48,877,947 (43.96%)

[Adam Griffin]

On track for 48.1% minimum (assuming what remains is no more pro-Lula than what has been counted, which I assume it will be even more favorable to Lula).

[Boobs]

If I did the math right, Lula has the most votes directly casted for him than any other human in history right? This is his sixth president election stretching to 1989

Not so fun fact, runner up is Trump with 136 million votes between 2016 and 2020. Obama is third at 134 million

Prez Joko Widodo of Indonesia 156.6 million. Not counting votes for him for lower offices.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I expect a positive trading day in Brazil's equity and FX markets tomorrow.   The market would now expect Lula to shift to the Center given the overperformance by Bolsonaro and the Right forces overall.

I think it would be beneficial to your situation if you got turned into a farm animal by a witch.

[Pivaru]

Everything is pointing to Romario being reelected for the senate in Rio de Janeiro. If PT hadn't run the Ceciliano guy, they could have won.

(Romario had 29%, Molon 21%, Ceciliano 12%)

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

If I did the math right, Lula has the most votes directly casted for him than any other human in history right? This is his sixth president election stretching to 1989

Not so fun fact, runner up is Trump with 136 million votes between 2016 and 2020. Obama is third at 134 million

Putin has over 190 million in his four elections, depending on how much fraud you assume to be going on there.

[Mike88]

Historically if Lula gets to the second round he always overperforms in the second round (1989 2002 2006). 

Especially 2006. The 1st round was closer than expected, but Alckmin just crashed in the 2nd round.

[Gass3268]

Whoever had that 48% prediction did a great job.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

94.47% Reporting

LULA- 53,151,961 (47.59%)
BOLSONARO- 49,053,886 (43.92%)

Historically if Lula gets to the second round he always overperforms in the second round (1989 2002 2006).  

Usually candidates outperform their first round share in the second round, yes.

[Duke of York]

Historically if Lula gets to the second round he always overperforms in the second round (1989 2002 2006). 

I hope he does the same again for the country and planet's sake.

[brucejoel99]

Historically if Lula gets to the second round he always overperforms in the second round (1989 2002 2006).  

Usually candidates outperform their first round share in the second round, yes.

I think they mean that Lula's final 2nd-round results always end up being an overperformance relative to his standing in 2nd-round polls?