Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/02/25/ukraine-russia-chips-sanctions-tsmc/

"Computer-chip industry begins halting deliveries to Russia in response to U.S. sanctions"

I wonder if Russia might launch counter-sanctions of C4F6,  gases neon, and palladium which is critical to making semiconductors.  If they do that the entire world chip industry might fall into crisis and massively hit supply chain issues related to products that need chips.  I guess like SWIFT on the collective West side, unless Russia gets desperate they will not play this card.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bloomberg reports that Wall Street firms including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc are telling the Biden administration to not take Russia off SWIFT saying that doing so will have far-reaching fallout that could hurt the global economy.

What the Bloomberg report does not say is that getting Russia off SWIFT might accelerate PRC-Russia plans for de-dollarization.   Europe would not care about this as much but the USA will care a lot.

China and Russia don't do well in terms of their currency being traded a lot. China loses to Switzerland and almost loses to Hong Kong. And Russia is much lower than that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Most_traded_currencies

[KaiserDave]

I wonder if Yanukovych feels any moral confusion right now from his Russian exile or if he really doesn't care about the Ukrainian people

[Meclazine for Israel]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/02/25/ukraine-russia-chips-sanctions-tsmc/

"Computer-chip industry begins halting deliveries to Russia in response to U.S. sanctions"

I wonder if Russia might launch counter-sanctions of C4F6,  gases neon, and palladium which is critical to making semiconductors.  If they do that the entire world chip industry might fall into crisis and massively hit supply chain issues related to products that need chips.  I guess like SWIFT on the collective West side, unless Russia gets desperate they will not play this card.

Russia is a large provider of high quality glass tubes for Amplifiers. They actually make a lot of stuff but that one affects my business.

We can get palladium from elsewhere.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg reports that Wall Street firms including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc are telling the Biden administration to not take Russia off SWIFT saying that doing so will have far-reaching fallout that could hurt the global economy.

What the Bloomberg report does not say is that getting Russia off SWIFT might accelerate PRC-Russia plans for de-dollarization.   Europe would not care about this as much but the USA will care a lot.

China and Russia don't do well in terms of their currency being traded a lot. China loses to Switzerland and almost loses to Hong Kong. And Russia is much lower than that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Most_traded_currencies

Totally true.  But if Russia and PRC use their payment transfer system instead of SWIFT and does all their trade  CNY or RUB then these number will get higher.  They can then rope in countries like Iran to use this alternative system.  Doing so will have huge transition costs and clearly they rather delay doing this but if Russia is cut off from SWIFT they will go this route.

[Coldstream]

One thing I’ve not seen talked about, what’s happening to the remaining Pro-Russian politicians in Ukraine? The so called “opposition platform” made up of ex Party of Regions officials came 2nd in the 2019 parliamentary elections with 43 seats. I’d be interested to see if any of them have chosen to stand with their people or run off to support their Kremlin paymasters.

Just adding that "second" was still an incredibly dismal performance. SotP cleaned house and won a massive supermajority. I am also curious as to whether the Opposition Platform people are traitors or not.

Oh yeah I didn’t mean to imply they had any support, just that there’s 43 people who ought to be on the list of Fifth columnists unless they make some immediate moves to support the Ukrainian military. I’d be keen to find out what has happened to them.

[nicholas.slaydon]

Petition to unmute BigSerg on this thread to widen perspectives shared

X TheReckoning

No

[KaiserDave]

One thing I’ve not seen talked about, what’s happening to the remaining Pro-Russian politicians in Ukraine? The so called “opposition platform” made up of ex Party of Regions officials came 2nd in the 2019 parliamentary elections with 43 seats. I’d be interested to see if any of them have chosen to stand with their people or run off to support their Kremlin paymasters.

Just adding that "second" was still an incredibly dismal performance. SotP cleaned house and won a massive supermajority. I am also curious as to whether the Opposition Platform people are traitors or not.

Oh yeah I didn’t mean to imply they had any support, just that there’s 43 people who ought to be on the list of Fifth columnists unless they make some immediate moves to support the Ukrainian military. I’d be keen to find out what has happened to them.

I agree, same with what Yanukovych is thinking

[Middle-aged Europe]

I don't know if anyone has posted this yet and this megathread is a bit too big to check, but this Australian general, former commander of the Australian Defense College, posted this lengthy assessement in a Twitter thread yesterday, and he wasn't convinced that Russia can pull off a victory here.

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1497023991030026242

[Storr]

Maybe sending in Chechens used to fighting isolated insurgents was not the best idea (super graphic):

https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/1497289979747352582?s=20&t=4k3u3vCrO...

[It’s so Joever]

Maybe sending in Chechens used to fighting isolated insurgents was not the best idea (super graphic):

https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/1497289979747352582?s=20&t=4k3u3vCrO...

Chechmate, Putin.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The sheer numbers of casualties so far, especially on the Russian side, have been astonishingly violent for this type of war. The waste of life on a tyrant's post-imperial brooding...

[Vosem]

I wonder if Yanukovych feels any moral confusion right now from his Russian exile or if he really doesn't care about the Ukrainian people

Yanukovych has spent 71 years not caring about the Ukrainian people and isn't starting today.

[Person Man]

The sheer numbers of casualties so far, especially on the Russian side, have been astonishingly violent for this type of war. The waste of life on a tyrant's post-imperial brooding...

This is like Antietam or Gettysburg style casualties almost.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The sheer numbers of casualties so far, especially on the Russian side, have been astonishingly violent for this type of war. The waste of life on a tyrant's post-imperial brooding...

For some reason the UK has lower estimates.

[KaiserDave]

I wonder if Yanukovych feels any moral confusion right now from his Russian exile or if he really doesn't care about the Ukrainian people

Yanukovych has spent 71 years not caring about the Ukrainian people and isn't starting today.

Yeah, makes sense. His career is over in any case, I imagine if Russia installed him he'd be assassinated.

[Person Man]

I wonder if Yanukovych feels any moral confusion right now from his Russian exile or if he really doesn't care about the Ukrainian people

Yanukovych has spent 71 years not caring about the Ukrainian people and isn't starting today.

Yeah, makes sense. His career is over in any case, I imagine if Russia installed him he'd be assassinated.

At this point, any puppet or governor Putin puts on the throne in Kiev will probably be assassinated.

[DaleCooper]

https://twitter.com/markhertling/status/1497253373648719876?s=21

Oh yeah here’s this too

 May the driver of that tank have their spine shattered till they are paralyzed, then have a group of partisans beat them to death Over the course ofseveral excruciating hours.

I’d like to see him getting ass raped, personally.

A bit excessive, no?

It's a crass joke, but on a serious note it would be ideal for the driver of that Russian tank, along with countless more Russian soldiers, to die or at least be maimed. The spirit of the Russian public needs to be broken before they'll reject Putin and move on to worship some other strongman.

[Storr]

Maybe sending in Chechens used to fighting isolated insurgents was not the best idea (super graphic):

<tweet snip>

Chechmate, Putin.

Ramzan Kadyrov (the ruler of Chechnya) is even more loathsome than Putin. Kadyrov likes to use the National Guard (Rosgvardia) units in Chechnya as his own mini army to do whatever he wants inside the Republic, but they're essentially armored police. Chechen units had never been deployed in conflict outside of Chechnya until now. It does not surprise me that they were routed when facing an actual army.

Article about the deployment of Chechen units to the border area: https://jamestown.org/program/chechen-rosgvardia-troops-head-for-ukraine/

"The problem, however, is that the regiment—and the National Guard in general—is essentially a police force (albeit exceptionally well armed) that has limited experience in conventional warfare."

[Mr. Illini]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-crisis-mp-interview-ak-47-112600107.html

Former Ukrainian president from 2014-2019 takes to the streets of Kyiv to fight the Russians

Wow I hope he’s alright

Imagine any of America's billionaires doing this. Poroshekno is wealthy enough he could have left on a private jet and be in the Caymans already.

He is most likely on Putin’s “hit list” if it exists as well. He won’t be treated well if the Russians take control of the country. Makes it even more heroic of him to stay and fight.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Petition to revoke TheReckoning’s petition making abilities until he stops trying to get BigSerg back lol

x Hindsight was 2020

[Mopsus]

The sheer numbers of casualties so far, especially on the Russian side, have been astonishingly violent for this type of war. The waste of life on a tyrant's post-imperial brooding...

As much as I want the war to end quickly, I don’t have it in me to rejoice over the deaths of Russian soldiers. On a human level the waste of life is too distressing.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

What would happen if Ukraine launched an attack on Russia that resulted in the death of Putin? It came to my mind that could happen.

[Roll Roons]

What would happen if Ukraine launched an attack on Russia that resulted in the death of Putin? It came to my mind that could happen.

How exactly would they do that?

[Storr]

A Russian airborne assault south of Kyiv attempting to cutoff the city may currently be taking place (this would fit in with the earlier reports of a Russian Il-76 being brought/shot down in the same area):
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497358093172285442?s=20&t=qQP3IRj...