Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Inmate Trump]

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1598723061116768257

It's going to feel so great shoving this in the face of every smug conservative who insisted that 'nobody cared about Jan. 6."

Agree. Or those who act like Jan 6 wasn't an armed insurrection. These people are morons with a lot of hatred for America, and I can't wait to point out how they lost yet another election after claiming democracy wasn't under direct attack by their political party.

Republicans have a lot to answer for and voters are making them face that.

[Skill and Chance]

Approximately 45% of the total 2022 vote was cast early.  This is almost exactly on trend with the gradual increase seen from 2010-14-18.  Strongly suggests that the 70% cast early in 2020 was a one-time thing. 

I wonder where it will stabilize?  Perhaps around 50%. There are now only a handful of states left that haven't adopted some form of no-excuse EV.  It's also notable that California (>12% of the US population) going primarily VBM didn't shift us above the long term trend at all. 

[rbt48]

I would welcome insight into the voter turnout comparing California CD-13 with Colorado CD-3.

It looks like just over 325,000 votes were cast in Colorado CD-3 and around 133,000 votes were cast in California CD-13.  CA CD-13 was generally felt to be a toss-up district while CO CD-3 was likely or safe Republican.  

According to the 2020 census, the average California CD had about 760,350 residents while the average Colorado CD had around 721,714 residents.  

So why were more than 2.4 times as many votes cast in Colorado CD-3 than in California CD-13?   Perhaps one can argue that Boebert's extreme positions and statements drew many more voters out, but there must be more at play here.  I haven't taken the time to compare all California CD turnouts with the same for Colorado (or other states), but I imagine that the California vote totals lag behind several states.

[Tekken_Guy]

I would welcome insight into the voter turnout comparing California CD-13 with Colorado CD-3.

It looks like just over 325,000 votes were cast in Colorado CD-3 and around 133,000 votes were cast in California CD-13.  CA CD-13 was generally felt to be a toss-up district while CO CD-3 was likely or safe Republican.  

According to the 2020 census, the average California CD had about 760,350 residents while the average Colorado CD had around 721,714 residents.  

So why were more than 2.4 times as many votes cast in Colorado CD-3 than in California CD-13?   Perhaps one can argue that Boebert's extreme positions and statements drew many more voters out, but there must be more at play here.  I haven't taken the time to compare all California CD turnouts with the same for Colorado (or other states), but I imagine that the California vote totals lag behind several states.

The Central Valley of CA is known for its very low turnout.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I would welcome insight into the voter turnout comparing California CD-13 with Colorado CD-3.

It looks like just over 325,000 votes were cast in Colorado CD-3 and around 133,000 votes were cast in California CD-13.  CA CD-13 was generally felt to be a toss-up district while CO CD-3 was likely or safe Republican.  

According to the 2020 census, the average California CD had about 760,350 residents while the average Colorado CD had around 721,714 residents.  

So why were more than 2.4 times as many votes cast in Colorado CD-3 than in California CD-13?   Perhaps one can argue that Boebert's extreme positions and statements drew many more voters out, but there must be more at play here.  I haven't taken the time to compare all California CD turnouts with the same for Colorado (or other states), but I imagine that the California vote totals lag behind several states.

The Central Valley of CA is known for its very low turnout.

A non-minute share of the population is ineligible to vote on basis of lack of citizenship, another large share of the population is ineligible to vote on basis of age, and many are just not interested in voting even if they are eligible. In places like the Central Valley, these three groups, put together, add up to a pretty huge share of the population when combined.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I would welcome insight into the voter turnout comparing California CD-13 with Colorado CD-3.

It looks like just over 325,000 votes were cast in Colorado CD-3 and around 133,000 votes were cast in California CD-13.  CA CD-13 was generally felt to be a toss-up district while CO CD-3 was likely or safe Republican.  

According to the 2020 census, the average California CD had about 760,350 residents while the average Colorado CD had around 721,714 residents.  

So why were more than 2.4 times as many votes cast in Colorado CD-3 than in California CD-13?   Perhaps one can argue that Boebert's extreme positions and statements drew many more voters out, but there must be more at play here.  I haven't taken the time to compare all California CD turnouts with the same for Colorado (or other states), but I imagine that the California vote totals lag behind several states.

The Central Valley of CA is known for its very low turnout.

To piggyback, the vote gap was bigger between neighboring CA-22 and CO-3. Around 101,600 votes in CA-22, or 3.2 times as many votes in Colorado's 3rd.

It's not apples to oranges, but in 2014, around 281,000 votes were cast in Colorado's 3rd. Valadao's district of California's 21st? 79,000 votes!

Since 2012, the difference between Colorado's third and the Merced/Valadao districts in California have typically averaged 2.4x and 3x as many votes respectively. In fact, the only elections where it was less than a 3x difference between CO-3 and CA-21 were 2016 (2.8x) and 2020 (2.5x)

[Del Tachi]

Has anyone noted that Democrats will now control every House seat that borders the Pacific Coast?  The pickups in AK-AL and WA-03 ensure it, I think

[Spectator]

Has anyone noted that Democrats will now control every House seat that borders the Pacific Coast?  The pickups in AK-AL and WA-03 ensure it, I think

Yeah, it's been noted. First time in history too, at least if you go by Alaska statehood.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Very rough congressional vote by county map with no shading because I'm lazy. 

• North/South Dakota only had a Independent/Libertarian, on the ballot but it's pretty clear they performed the same as Generic D would.
• Alaska and ME-02 are very rough estimates due to me not being sure how to calculate RCV. Doesn't help that neither state reports it's elections at the county level. 
• MT-02 had a vote split between a Dem and a well-funded center-left independent, allowing Rosendale to carry the counties in pink with a small plurality. 
• Dems would have carried Maricopa if not for both Gosar and Lesko running completely unopposed. Possible similar story with Williamson county TX, which Beto narrowly lost but had John Carter unopposed in TX31. 
• Derek Kilmer lost Grays Harbor by only about 100 votes, and Mason by a little bit more. I kept waiting to see if this would flip with late ballots for the sake of a prettier map, but sadly it didn't happen. 

D Riverside County but R San Bernardino County seems like the inverse of recent presidential results.

A bit disappointing to see OK all red, guess it's the counterpart of MA?

Kaptur didn't win Wood?

She won the portion that's in her district, but the countywide vote was slightly R leaning due to Bob Latta carrying the rest by a wide margin.

For an opposite example, Elaine Luria lost the Chesapeake county of her district but the countywide vote was still Democratic due to the margin in the VA-03 portion.

[Spectator]

Jared Golden won Oxford County and Penobscot County.

[wbrocks67]

CA-13 is such a bad one. Reps had no business winning them, another flop from CA dems for that one. Gray was a good candidate too.

[M0096]

Has anyone noted that Democrats will now control every House seat that borders the Pacific Coast?  The pickups in AK-AL and WA-03 ensure it, I think

Yeah, it's been noted. First time in history too, at least if you go by Alaska statehood.

Also the first time since Washington statehood. The last time it happened was before 1860 elections.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/OldNorthStPol/status/1599483315001511937

[prag_prog]

So looks like Gabe Vasquez won NM02 despite Grisham narrowly losing it..not sure whether it says more about Herrel being a weak incumbent or Vasquez being a strong candidate

[wbrocks67]

So looks like Gabe Vasquez won NM02 despite Grisham narrowly losing it..not sure whether it says more about Herrel being a weak incumbent or Vasquez being a strong candidate

MTE, though didn't Herrel outrun Trump in 2020? Maybe the election denier stuff actually did hurt her.

[wbrocks67]

Huh.. well despite the CA Dems flopping in congressional districts, the CA GOP had little other good news.

https://twitter.com/lordpet8/status/1599862470340120577?s=46&t=Yr3mbdv1WCwJO...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Huh.. well despite the CA Dems flopping in congressional districts, the CA GOP had little other good news.

https://twitter.com/lordpet8/status/1599862470340120577?s=46&t=Yr3mbdv1WCwJO...

Wbrooks do you know Marriage Equally came after Eday that was the Collins plan to delay the Marriage Equally bill until after Eday CA is pro SSM of it passed before Eday we would of won the H with pickups in CA and NY especially since Sean Patrick Murphy is gay, just like Collins strategically Filibuster the Voting Rights Act she is a moderate but still a partisan

Now that Marriage equality passes it has an effect on KY Gov, NC Gov and GA SEN we will win all three race the transgender bathroom bill was unpopular I'm NC that's why Cooper won

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

So looks like Gabe Vasquez won NM02 despite Grisham narrowly losing it..not sure whether it says more about Herrel being a weak incumbent or Vasquez being a strong candidate

MTE, though didn't Herrel outrun Trump in 2020? Maybe the election denier stuff actually did hurt her.

Nope. She under ran Trump in 2020 and under ran the top of the ticket in 2018 as well.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Huh.. well despite the CA Dems flopping in congressional districts, the CA GOP had little other good news.

https://twitter.com/lordpet8/status/1599862470340120577?s=46&t=Yr3mbdv1WCwJO...

"California Democrats peaked in 2018"

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Huh.. well despite the CA Dems flopping in congressional districts, the CA GOP had little other good news.

https://twitter.com/lordpet8/status/1599862470340120577?s=46&t=Yr3mbdv1WCwJO...

"California Democrats peaked in 2018"

SSM had a lot to do with Ds not gaining more seats in the H, the Ds delayed the vote thanks to Collins until after Eday that's why Ds failed to maintain the H Sean Patrick Murphy was gay and Cali is a SSM system State Ds did fine but not good enough in NY or Cali in the H

Feinstein on the ballot with Biden and Gillibrand can max out votes in 24, we only n Ed 5 seats

[ottermax]

D Riverside County but R San Bernardino County seems like the inverse of recent presidential results.

A bit disappointing to see OK all red, guess it's the counterpart of MA?

San Bernardino County is a bit more Latino than Riverside County and didn't have any competitive house elections while Riverside had at least one competitive race.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

D Riverside County but R San Bernardino County seems like the inverse of recent presidential results.

A bit disappointing to see OK all red, guess it's the counterpart of MA?

Along with the aforementioned low turnout;

1. Both counties have gone blue in presidential elections since 2008. San Bernardino County typically votes to the left of Riverside, although the gap has been shrinking since 2016. Doing the math for this year, the congressional vote margin was around 2% which would be on the closer end of things.

2. Before this year, the last time Riverside voted left of San Bernardino in a Gubernatorial/Presidential race was 2014. Interestingly, the turnout gap was nearly identical for both years (Riverside+5.8 vs Riverside+5.7 in 2014).

3. As mentioned before, the more-competitive CA-41 takes up a big chunk of Riverside's congressional vote while San Bernardino County has nothing of the short (CA-40 was only 4% of their congressional vote).

If migration & voting trends continue, it wouldn't shock me if Riverside County consistently votes to the left of San Bernardino throughout the decade.

[Ferguson97]

Huh.. well despite the CA Dems flopping in congressional districts, the CA GOP had little other good news.

https://twitter.com/lordpet8/status/1599862470340120577?s=46&t=Yr3mbdv1WCwJO...

An odd result if crime issues were what did in Dem congressional candidates. You'd think local/state candidates would do worse than federal ones.

[politicallefty]

Huh.. well despite the CA Dems flopping in congressional districts, the CA GOP had little other good news.

https://twitter.com/lordpet8/status/1599862470340120577?s=46&t=Yr3mbdv1WCwJO...

It'd be nice if they did something to help the people with their massive majorities. The cost of housing and the cost of living keeps increasing evermore. I don't want Gavin Newsom anywhere near the White House either. He couldn't even clear 60% of the vote. At the state level, the Democratic Party is a nightmare. All that happens is more regulation and strange laws that most people wouldn't even think of. The California Democratic Party is not a model for the rest of the country (at least not until it removes its head from its own ass).

[Torie]

This is a good summary of what happened in the House, and the quite uneven swings that ended up to be a red ripple net. I live in one of the two metro NYC CD's that did not swing to the Pubs. I was satisfied that the son was not the Dad (whom I would never vote for unless his opponent were named Trump), and I don't believe in blood libel.

https://elections-daily.com/2022/12/05/republicans-ride-inconsistent-house-swings-to-a-majority/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the_closing_mail_from_georgia&utm_term=2022-12-06