Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[wbrocks67]

Something else interesting, Trump did bad on endorsements but .... DeSantis, Youngkin, Haley, etc. didn't do much better.

https://twitter.com/zac_weisz/status/1602691253350633472

[ottermax]

Just saw a marquee on CNN as I was passing through my apartment building lobby:

Dems panic as black turnout plummets in 2022

:Eyeroll:

Do better, CNN.  

I swear to god, sometimes I can't tell if the people running these stories are just trying to be sensationalistic or actually believe this stuff and are ignorant. I would say the former but given CNN and MSNBC's awful coverage of how simple elections in GA work on election night two weeks ago, it may be the latter.

It's like .... yeah, black turnout was going to fall. It's literally a Democratic Midterm! What the hell did you expect? Core base minority turnout always does that every midterm like clockwork, just like every other base in a midterm.

Black turnout was not just lower in a typical midterm way but about a 40% drop from the presidential turnout figures which hasn't been seen in more than 20 years.

Clearly Democrats do need to do some work to connect with Black voters if they hope to win the presidency because the messaging completely failed in 2022. If you look in racially polarized areas especially in the South or urban Midwest / Northeast it is shocking how poorly Democrats performed in heavily Black communities.

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1602730875715723268

I f**king hate how in every close election some moron has to calculate this meaningless statistic. Same thing as when people kept screaming that "Biden was just 40k votes from losing". No, that's not how elections work. Sure, if you had # votes all optimally localized in the right states/districts, then it doesn't take many voters to flip ANY election. However, there's no alternate reality where that would ever happen. Uniform national swing is not a perfect metric either, but at least it understand that voters in carefully selected swing areas aren't isolated islands that can freely move independently from broader trends.

I concur that it is a very meaningless statistic. Sure, there were many nail-biter GOP wins, but there were also many nail-biter Dem wins. Are democrats supposed to win 100% of the 50/50 races?

[Unelectable Bystander]

Finally, Tennessee has released precinct results (strangely for everything but the gubernatorial race).  I was fascinated to see how Downtown Franklin (wealthy, but full of historic downtown homes instead of typical suburban McMansions) votes.  In the past, it had been in a narrowly Republican precinct that included a lot of lower-middle class areas to the west of Downtown Franklin.  Following redistricting, it was made its own precinct.

Downtown Franklin (Williamson County Precinct 11-2):

TN-7:
Mark Green (R, inc.): 64.3%
Odessa Kelly (D): 32.5%

TN-HD-61:
Gino Bulso (R): 62.3%
Steven Cervantes (D): 37.7%

TN-SD-27 (unopposed, calculating undervote):
Jack Johnson (R, inc.): 100%
Undervote: 31.8% from US House or 29.1% from State House

Overall, that's significantly more Republican than I expected.  Depending on the race, it seems to vote similarly to Williamson County as a whole.  I expected it to still lean Republican, but be much closer than the overall county results.

Did you expect it to be narrower because Democrats are assumed to place an emphasis on architectural value in a house instead of just size?

The bigger factor was that Downtown Franklin is a downtown, highly walkable neighborhood with lots of independent/botique stores and restaurants.  Even outside of major cities, Democrats are often drawn to such areas.  I'd be curious to see Trump-Biden results there (which are unfortunately impossible to infer due to the demographic mismatch of its old precinct), but it definitely was a little more Republican than my expectation for it this year.

I’m pretty sure you’re correct that this kind of pattern is anomalous. Just looking at precinct data, the core downtown of a red suburb or independent town is almost always bluer than the surroundings and sometimes is outright blue.

[emailking]

I concur that it is a very meaningless statistic. Sure, there were many nail-biter GOP wins, but there were also many nail-biter Dem wins. Are democrats supposed to win 100% of the 50/50 races?

I think the right way to look at it is that the Dems were close to getting beaten much more handily. And they were also close to winning the House. Both are true and both tell us something about where the voters are.

[2016]

New York & California have posted Final Official Certified Results today.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Finally, Tennessee has released precinct results (strangely for everything but the gubernatorial race).  I was fascinated to see how Downtown Franklin (wealthy, but full of historic downtown homes instead of typical suburban McMansions) votes.  In the past, it had been in a narrowly Republican precinct that included a lot of lower-middle class areas to the west of Downtown Franklin.  Following redistricting, it was made its own precinct.

Downtown Franklin (Williamson County Precinct 11-2):

TN-7:
Mark Green (R, inc.): 64.3%
Odessa Kelly (D): 32.5%

TN-HD-61:
Gino Bulso (R): 62.3%
Steven Cervantes (D): 37.7%

TN-SD-27 (unopposed, calculating undervote):
Jack Johnson (R, inc.): 100%
Undervote: 31.8% from US House or 29.1% from State House

Overall, that's significantly more Republican than I expected.  Depending on the race, it seems to vote similarly to Williamson County as a whole.  I expected it to still lean Republican, but be much closer than the overall county results.

Did you expect it to be narrower because Democrats are assumed to place an emphasis on architectural value in a house instead of just size?

The bigger factor was that Downtown Franklin is a downtown, highly walkable neighborhood with lots of independent/botique stores and restaurants.  Even outside of major cities, Democrats are often drawn to such areas.  I'd be curious to see Trump-Biden results there (which are unfortunately impossible to infer due to the demographic mismatch of its old precinct), but it definitely was a little more Republican than my expectation for it this year.

I’m pretty sure you’re correct that this kind of pattern is anomalous. Just looking at precinct data, the core downtown of a red suburb or independent town is almost always bluer than the surroundings and sometimes is outright blue.

Yeah, I think the difference ultimately with Franklin is that the actual downtown is virtually uniformly wealthy and white.  I don't know how true that is in other areas.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I concur that it is a very meaningless statistic. Sure, there were many nail-biter GOP wins, but there were also many nail-biter Dem wins. Are democrats supposed to win 100% of the 50/50 races?

I think the right way to look at it is that the Dems were close to getting beaten much more handily. And they were also close to winning the House. Both are true and both tell us something about where the voters are.

Insurrection has alot to do with it

[wbrocks67]

As more counties certify, Fetterman inches up to 51.25%, so we're gonna round to 51.3% to 46.3% for 5.0% lol

Fetterman 2,751,012 (51.25%)
Oz 2,487,260 (46.33%)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is the exact margin Obama won 2012 Eday, we know it's a 303 map but can we get a 2012 not 2020 result in 24 that's the wildcard, PA and NM are the Bellwethers we know Biden is near 50 percent Approvals and the Wrong track number isn't 69 percent it's 52 percent just like 2012

What's skewing the numbers are not Ds or indies it's R Voters

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

We already have some winners of the 2022 election in office and these clowns still haven't finished counting?

[Landslide Lyndon]

We already have some winners of the 2022 election in office and these clowns still haven't finished counting?

Minnesota senate 2008 says hi.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Atlas: "California's vote counting is a disgrace. How can they be so slow?"

Pennsylvania:" Hold my cheesesteak..."

[wbrocks67]

Schumer (D) 3,320,561 — 56.7%
Pinion (R) 2,501,151 — 42.7%

Hochul (D) 3,140,415 — 53.2%
Zeldin (R) 2,762,581 — 46.8%

Looks like there was a pretty big dump of votes finally counted in NY after election day and right before the certification, with about ~190k more processed. Raised Schumer's final margin from +13.2 to +14.0 and Hochul's from +5.8 to +6.4.

Same thing happened in the August specials... they literally took 3-4 weeks to finally count the final mail-ins/absentees.

[wbrocks67]

NYT literally just making stuff up. Only plausible thing i can think of is that they are going off of their poll that had Titus tied, but that poll was.... clearly wrong since Titus won by 6.

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1604969649128341504

[ottermax]

NYT literally just making stuff up. Only plausible thing i can think of is that they are going off of their poll that had Titus tied, but that poll was.... clearly wrong since Titus won by 6.

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1604969649128341504

There is evidence that there was a drop in Latino turnout and some persuasion of Republican leaning independents if you look at turnout numbers in Latino precincts. Overall Latino voters remained very Democratic leaning in Nevada but they also had numbers closer to 2020 than in previous years combined with low turnout.

[ottermax]

Schumer (D) 3,320,561 — 56.7%
Pinion (R) 2,501,151 — 42.7%

Hochul (D) 3,140,415 — 53.2%
Zeldin (R) 2,762,581 — 46.8%

Looks like there was a pretty big dump of votes finally counted in NY after election day and right before the certification, with about ~190k more processed. Raised Schumer's final margin from +13.2 to +14.0 and Hochul's from +5.8 to +6.4.

Same thing happened in the August specials... they literally took 3-4 weeks to finally count the final mail-ins/absentees.

Did this make any of the congressional races closer?

[wbrocks67]

NYT literally just making stuff up. Only plausible thing i can think of is that they are going off of their poll that had Titus tied, but that poll was.... clearly wrong since Titus won by 6.

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1604969649128341504

There is evidence that there was a drop in Latino turnout and some persuasion of Republican leaning independents if you look at turnout numbers in Latino precincts. Overall Latino voters remained very Democratic leaning in Nevada but they also had numbers closer to 2020 than in previous years combined with low turnout.

Okay, but that's not what they're saying. They're trying to say that the overall Latino vote was either a tossup or GOP leaning which is not true at all.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

NYT literally just making stuff up. Only plausible thing i can think of is that they are going off of their poll that had Titus tied, but that poll was.... clearly wrong since Titus won by 6.

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1604969649128341504

There is evidence that there was a drop in Latino turnout and some persuasion of Republican leaning independents if you look at turnout numbers in Latino precincts. Overall Latino voters remained very Democratic leaning in Nevada but they also had numbers closer to 2020 than in previous years combined with low turnout.

Okay, but that's not what they're saying. They're trying to say that the overall Latino vote was either a tossup or GOP leaning which is not true at all.

Quite an insane claim, really.

[wbrocks67]

Schumer (D) 3,320,561 — 56.7%
Pinion (R) 2,501,151 — 42.7%

Hochul (D) 3,140,415 — 53.2%
Zeldin (R) 2,762,581 — 46.8%

Looks like there was a pretty big dump of votes finally counted in NY after election day and right before the certification, with about ~190k more processed. Raised Schumer's final margin from +13.2 to +14.0 and Hochul's from +5.8 to +6.4.

Same thing happened in the August specials... they literally took 3-4 weeks to finally count the final mail-ins/absentees.

Did this make any of the congressional races closer?

Looks like a tiny bit:

NY-17 — R+0.8 previously to R+0.6 final
Lawler (R) 143,550 — 50.3%
Maloney (R) 141,730 — 49.7%

NY-18 — D+1.0 to D+1.4
Ryan (D) 135,245 — 50.7%
Schmitt (R) 131,653 — 49.3%

NY-19 — R+2.2 to R+1.6
Molinaro (R) 146,004 - 50.8%
Riley (D) 141,509 — 49.2%

NY-22 — R+1.0 to R+1.0
Williams (R) 135,544 — 50.5%
Conole (D) 132,913 — 49.5%

[wbrocks67]

Trafalgar was on average off 6%

https://twitter.com/DeDurkheim/status/1605627423680126977

[Roll Roons]

Btw, Joe Kent finally conceded after a recount but implies he may run again:
https://twitter.com/JoeKentCampaign/status/1605639032943349766

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NV Senate was the worst off, Laxalt underpolled just like he did in 2018 why because to fill a jeep is 50 not l00, 3.09 gas prices, I worked at airport in 2000s and Co workers were plane fuelers it was cheap jet fuel back then


That's why Ds are leading in GCB again 48/44 underestimate Beshear like RS did last time he will pull a Laura Kelly

[Roll Roons]

So it’s pretty much just Kari Lake and Trump himself who are still committed to the “stolen election” BS. Every other losing Trump-endorsed candidate did eventually concede, if belatedly.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1605639884835852303