Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1063149504982065157

Ughhh

What? It makes sense. Demcorats represent Cities and their adjacent Suburbs. These places are bound to be richer/more advanced than the GOP controlled districts in AL.

I mean, the top 5 DEM districts are:
Manhattan, NYC
Manhattan, NYC
Brooklyn, NYC
San Francisco, CA
Boston, MA

Makes perfect sense to me

[Zaybay]

Re: CA-21  Kings seems to be just about done counting votes and Valodao has a 2200 vote lead.  If the counties in the district each make up the same % of the vote they did in 2016, then you would expect Kern to still have about 7500 votes to add and Fresno 3500. 

If there are that many left, Cox is more likely than not to win.

I dont know whether to be happy that we took down the titan that was Valadao, or to be mad that it was TJ Cox to do so.

[Zaybay]

Re: CA-21  Kings seems to be just about done counting votes and Valodao has a 2200 vote lead.  If the counties in the district each make up the same % of the vote they did in 2016, then you would expect Kern to still have about 7500 votes to add and Fresno 3500. 

If there are that many left, Cox is more likely than not to win.

I dont know whether to be happy that we took down the titan that was Valadao, or to be mad that it was TJ Cox to do so.

why would you be mad at TJ cox? what did he do wrong? daring to represent a hispanic district as a white? He took the risk and campaigned when Emilio huertas mom tried to scare everyone else.

Well, simply put, its because he was such a bad candidate, and one who put in little effort into his campaign. He doesnt even have a website. He literally switched to run in this district because it was open. And it will be him to, possibly, unseat a titan of the GOP. Its just, I dont even know.

[Zaybay]

Re: CA-21  Kings seems to be just about done counting votes and Valodao has a 2200 vote lead.  If the counties in the district each make up the same % of the vote they did in 2016, then you would expect Kern to still have about 7500 votes to add and Fresno 3500. 

If there are that many left, Cox is more likely than not to win.

I dont know whether to be happy that we took down the titan that was Valadao, or to be mad that it was TJ Cox to do so.

why would you be mad at TJ cox? what did he do wrong? daring to represent a hispanic district as a white? He took the risk and campaigned when Emilio huertas mom tried to scare everyone else.

Well, simply put, its because he was such a bad candidate, and one who put in little effort into his campaign. He doesnt even have a website. He literally switched to run in this district because it was open. And it will be him to, possibly, unseat a titan of the GOP. Its just, I dont even know.

??

When I looked a week ago, I swear, this website didnt exist.

[Zaybay]

BREAKING

Utah County posted new Results for the UT-4 Race and Mia Love now leads by 1516 Votes.

McAdams needs 58.5 of the SLC Provisionals to pass Love.

Yeah, doesnt look like Democrats will win UT-04. At least the commission is passing, so that should make taking the seat easierand also possibly unseating Valadao will mean the Ds still take 39 seats.

[Zaybay]

BREAKING

Utah County posted new Results for the UT-4 Race and Mia Love now leads by 1516 Votes.

McAdams needs 58.5 of the SLC Provisionals to pass Love.

Yeah, doesnt look like Democrats will win UT-04. At least the commission is passing, so that should make taking the seat easierand also possibly unseating Valadao will mean the Ds still take 39 seats.

Democrats will never ever take that Seat if they don't win it this year. They're certainly won't be getting it in a POTUS Year. And the 2022 MidTerms will only be favorable to Dems if Trump wins; If he loses Republicans will gain most of the Seats back they lost this year.

Well, thats not true. As I said before, if the commission passes, they will have to make a Lean-Likely D seat in SLC county, which would be easily winnable for Ds.

[Zaybay]

BREAKING

Utah County posted new Results for the UT-4 Race and Mia Love now leads by 1516 Votes.

McAdams needs 58.5 of the SLC Provisionals to pass Love.

Yeah, doesnt look like Democrats will win UT-04. At least the commission is passing, so that should make taking the seat easierand also possibly unseating Valadao will mean the Ds still take 39 seats.

Democrats will never ever take that Seat if they don't win it this year. They're certainly won't be getting it in a POTUS Year. And the 2022 MidTerms will only be favorable to Dems if Trump wins; If he loses Republicans will gain most of the Seats back they lost this year.

Well, thats not true. As I said before, if the commission passes, they will have to make a Lean-Likely D seat in SLC county, which would be easily winnable for Ds.

Republican map drawers wouldn't make a Lean/Likely D seat in SLC even with the commission recommendations. At best they'd draw a south SLC seat that is R+9 or so. Granted, McAdams would've won that this year, but it's not Lean/Likely D by any stretch of the imagination.

You shouldnt use PVI for a place like UT, especially with its bloated 2012 result(the UT-04 district has a PVI of R+13, to give an idea). The most likely result would be around an even seat, or one that voted slightly Democratic, as counties must be kept whole(cant cut SLC).

[Zaybay]

BREAKING

Utah County posted new Results for the UT-4 Race and Mia Love now leads by 1516 Votes.

McAdams needs 58.5 of the SLC Provisionals to pass Love.

Yeah, doesnt look like Democrats will win UT-04. At least the commission is passing, so that should make taking the seat easierand also possibly unseating Valadao will mean the Ds still take 39 seats.

Democrats will never ever take that Seat if they don't win it this year. They're certainly won't be getting it in a POTUS Year. And the 2022 MidTerms will only be favorable to Dems if Trump wins; If he loses Republicans will gain most of the Seats back they lost this year.

Well, thats not true. As I said before, if the commission passes, they will have to make a Lean-Likely D seat in SLC county, which would be easily winnable for Ds.

Republican map drawers wouldn't make a Lean/Likely D seat in SLC even with the commission recommendations. At best they'd draw a south SLC seat that is R+9 or so. Granted, McAdams would've won that this year, but it's not Lean/Likely D by any stretch of the imagination.

You shouldnt use PVI for a place like UT, especially with its bloated 2012 result(the UT-04 district has a PVI of R+13, to give an idea). The most likely result would be around an even seat, or one that voted slightly Democratic, as counties must be kept whole(cant cut SLC).

I am well aware. The resulting seat would still not be leans/likely D solely because McAdams would've carried it in a D+8 year. Don't be a hack.

When I said it would have been even or slightly Democratic, I was talking about if the newly redistricted seat voted in an even election. The area the seat would encompass would be the rapidly D trending and growing area of Salt Lake County. So, by 2022, factoring growth and the D trend in the area, the seat would be a lean/likely D seat, instead of the tossup/lean D seat it would be today.

Its not being a hack, its being able to see the numbers.

[Zaybay]

this entire forum already thinks 2020 is a wave ignoring 2010 2012 94 96 82 84(82 is actually the closest election to this with the same senate class and a house flip and 54 and 56.) they think because muh trump backlash its gonna be a wave again when we know the fact that if trump is mostly innocent then its better that he doesn't have the house than a narrow and useless house majority.

1982 and 2010 were wave elections because of the bad economy. Trump and the Republicans on the contrary enjoyed the best economy in almost 20 years and still got clobbered. And it can only get worse the next two years.

and 94 was a decent economy afaik.  Trump can pivot to the center. He has to push the criminal justice reform and thats a good bipartisan victory for all.

Thats not at all how politics work, at least not now. Trump is hated by the Democrats, he isnt getting their votes. He is hated by a majority of Indies, he is not getting their votes. He cant just pivot to the center and suddenly everyone likes him and his approval goes up to the high 50s, people dont work like that.

Besides, this midterm should have been proof that it doesnt work like that. Moderate Republicans lost, Pro-Trump Democrats lost. Voters are stupid, but they arent that stupid.

[Zaybay]

Popular vote different in Wisconsin is heavy because majority of dem seats not contested. Even in north Carolina the super majority broke but in Wisconsin it is still there

Are you the nephew of the majority leader of the Wisconsin Republicans? This argument is at the same level as "alternative facts"-Conway and "Truth is not truth"-Giuliani.
This argument comes close to victim blaming: These 25 uncontested districts are vote sinks thus "packing" the vote.

There are 300,000 more voters for Democrats than Republicans.

And nice that you mentioned the potentially most corrupt state party with NC Republicans, which openly admitted that their schemes are meant to rigg democracy and turn a minority into a majority.

I agree the NC gop is trash and I would never vote for one at the state level the way they are rn. It's clear that wisconsin dems had a massive failure failing to gain any seats unlike the Texas nc and ga dems

The reason for that is because the R gerrymanders of GA and TX were designed around the Rs holding the suburban areas around Atlanta, and the Major Texas Cities, such as Houston and Dallas. In 2018, these broke, and became dummymanders.

The WI gerrymander is holding strong because there hasnt been any shifts in where the D and R votes are coming from. The WOW region still votes R, and the Madison region still votes D. For the gerry to break, you would need the WIDEMs to win in highly hostile territory, and the trend isnt there for that to occur.

The WI Dems arent losing, they gained all the row offices, including the seemingly invincible AG, and took the Governorship back from Walker, and a SC seat, but unless Ds start winning in highly R territory in the North East or WOW, they arent winning the state legislature. Of Course, a non-partisan map would have given them the trifecta, but thats not the map Ds had to play in for the Election.

[Zaybay]

I cant believe it, the madman. He actually did it.

[Zaybay]

Nah, we lost NC 9th fair and square, congrats to rep-elect Mark Harris.

Based on what? That you don't want to get your hopes up? That you want to appear moderate and reasonable to both sides?

Because the deficit is too large to make up especially with something like Bladen County, and McCready conceded, and the Bladen county certified their results. I trust the election systems and processes in this country, including those places where it is run by republicans. There is hardly any fraud, they do their jobs with integrity.

Well, no.  According to Politico, Harris won the Bladen portion of NC-09 by 17% of 9363 votes in the county, or about 1600 votes.  Harris's overall margin is 905.

Exactly. So how would it be reasonable to say that there is a net gain of 900 plus ballots for McCready out of that place. It’s obvious that Harris won.

Based on the link that The Mikado provided, there seems to be a suggestion of widespread voter fraud in the county.  If, for example, 1000 votes for Harris were manufactured...there goes your margin.

Without such a situation, which I fully acknowledge is nothing more than a suggestion at this point, then yes a 900-vote margin is too much to make up.  But there's enough question for the state board to exercise a little patience and make sure everything is above board (or that it isn't.)  Perhaps you should try exercising a similar amount of patience instead of declaring the election over by fiat. 

I don’t like it or believe it when republicans and trumpists scream widespread voter fraud cost them a close race, and to dems credit, while the are not screaming widespread voter fraud cost them this seat, the mere idea of them entertaining the thought does not go over well with myself either.

It was a panel of 4 Democrats, 4 Republicans, and 1 Indie. The vote was completely unanimous. If the board for elections is saying something is happening, then something is likely happening.

[Zaybay]

Well, one thing a Democratic president would have going for them in 2022 is that the maps this time will probably be a lot more fair, even before considering any more split governments created from the 2020 elections. So even if they lost the House in 2022, they could quite possibly gain it back in 2024.

Are there any states that are likelier to have fairer maps due to having elected Democratic governors this year? The states that I can think of that were ground zero for the Republican gerrymandering after 2010--Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, possibly others I'm forgetting--have mostly instituted various forms of nonpartisan, bipartisan, or court-ordered redistricting now, with the exception of Wisconsin, where I'm wary of the possibility of the legislature stripping Evers of his power to veto new maps (if they haven't already).

Pennsylvania and North Carolina are guaranteed to have fair maps because Democrats control the state supreme courts. In Michigan they control the governorship and an independent redistricting commission just passed via referendum. In Virginia they will probably control the trifecta after next year's elections. Ohio and Florida will probably be the same, if not slightly worse. In Wisconsin even if the lege strips Evers' veto power the state supreme court might strike down that law if Democrats win the next two elections and get the majority.
The big question mark is Texas where Democrats have a realistic chance to flip the state house and block any Republican gerrymandering.

You got almost everything right, but you missed OH. The state commission, while R controlled and weak, has to obey certain laws when drawing their maps. The Cincinnati area would be forced as a tossup-lean D district, so the Ds could make a gain there. Otherwise, you got everything important.

[Zaybay]

There is one big reason the GOP would probably not use this map. Its too risky. There are 9 seats in the R+3-6 range, and many of them feature D trending areas that could cause a dummymander. Not to mention, as the author even points out, many of the district's Representatives dont live in the districts he drew.

That being said, there is also the problem of the Cincinnati district not following the rules.

There is also a wild card thrown into the deck, the supreme court. Normally, this wouldnt be an issue, because the court was 7-0 R. But after 2018, two Democrats were elected. This makes the court 5-2R, and in 2020, two more R seats will be up for reelection. The SC has the final say on the map, which could throw a wrench into any R plans.

The OH map is likely going to see no change, or possibly a D+1 increase just because of Cincinnati.

[Zaybay]

There is one big reason the GOP would probably not use this map. Its too risky. There are 9 seats in the R+3-6 range, and many of them feature D trending areas that could cause a dummymander. Not to mention, as the author even points out, many of the district's Representatives dont live in the districts he drew.

That being said, there is also the problem of the Cincinnati district not following the rules.

There is also a wild card thrown into the deck, the supreme court. Normally, this wouldnt be an issue, because the court was 7-0 R. But after 2018, two Democrats were elected. This makes the court 5-2R, and in 2020, two more R seats will be up for reelection. The SC has the final say on the map, which could throw a wrench into any R plans.

The OH map is likely going to see no change, or possibly a D+1 increase just because of Cincinnati.

There is no major dummymander risk as they can just redraw after 4 years.

Ill pose a scenario. The map you posted is used, and the Rs get a 12-3 majority in the congressional delegation. After 4 years pass, its clear the map is starting to break. 4 of the districts could be lost to Democrats come the next election. The GOP is forced to redraw.

But its more difficult than anticipated. They have to forfeit at least 1 or 2 districts to keep the Democrats at bay, but the Representatives are clamoring to keep their seats. They could try an extreme gerrymander, but this one could fall as well. Not to mention, to redraw these seats, they need to move them around OH, and they cannot because the Reps are grounded in certain areas. Basically, the hands of the commission are tied because of the Representatives they helped to keep in power.

Dont this will happen, its exactly what occurred the last time they redrew the map. It was bloody, and bitter, and in the end, one seat was sacrificed. But with such a map that is shown, they would likely have to sacrifice much more, which the Reps would fight tooth and claw. In the end, its likely the Reps would get concessions, a risky gerrymander, which could prove disastrous in the future.

[Zaybay]

This election really is something. You could've argued that Dems did better because of low turnout or that Trump's base didn't show up -- but nope, this was presidential level turnout, with Dems turning out 60 million votes, and even WITH Trump's base being awakened, they nearly took the house by 10 million votes. That's incredible.

Which leads me to think that this election is some indication of 2020. You couldn't argue that 2010 meant the defeat of Obama since the turnout was pretty low, but this election signaled mass enthusiasm in the opposition with the Democrats beating the GOP by nearly 10 mill in such a turnout.

Essentially, the Dem candidate in 2020 needs to live in PA, WI, and MI. Based on 2018, we have a good starting point.

M e h. This may be foolish this after 2016, but I just don't see pulling out Pennsylvania or Michigan again. It was like Obama carrying Indiana in 2008. The difference is whereas Indiana Shipley reverted to Norm in 2012, Trump has actively burned Bridges with pretty much any voter who ever supported Obama in either one of those States.

Wisconsin is still competitive I'll say, but only kind of in the same way Texas is for Democrats.

I cant tell if you are implying the Rust Belt is gone for Ds, or that the Rs winning it was a "once in a blue moon" thing.