Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[Zaybay]

There is one big reason the GOP would probably not use this map. Its too risky. There are 9 seats in the R+3-6 range, and many of them feature D trending areas that could cause a dummymander. Not to mention, as the author even points out, many of the district's Representatives dont live in the districts he drew.

That being said, there is also the problem of the Cincinnati district not following the rules.

There is also a wild card thrown into the deck, the supreme court. Normally, this wouldnt be an issue, because the court was 7-0 R. But after 2018, two Democrats were elected. This makes the court 5-2R, and in 2020, two more R seats will be up for reelection. The SC has the final say on the map, which could throw a wrench into any R plans.

The OH map is likely going to see no change, or possibly a D+1 increase just because of Cincinnati.

There is no major dummymander risk as they can just redraw after 4 years.

Ill pose a scenario. The map you posted is used, and the Rs get a 12-3 majority in the congressional delegation. After 4 years pass, its clear the map is starting to break. 4 of the districts could be lost to Democrats come the next election. The GOP is forced to redraw.

But its more difficult than anticipated. They have to forfeit at least 1 or 2 districts to keep the Democrats at bay, but the Representatives are clamoring to keep their seats. They could try an extreme gerrymander, but this one could fall as well. Not to mention, to redraw these seats, they need to move them around OH, and they cannot because the Reps are grounded in certain areas. Basically, the hands of the commission are tied because of the Representatives they helped to keep in power.

Dont this will happen, its exactly what occurred the last time they redrew the map. It was bloody, and bitter, and in the end, one seat was sacrificed. But with such a map that is shown, they would likely have to sacrifice much more, which the Reps would fight tooth and claw. In the end, its likely the Reps would get concessions, a risky gerrymander, which could prove disastrous in the future.

[Antonio the Sixth]

RRH claims this map can work with the rules. With the way ohio is trending this would not shock me.

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2018/11/27/ohio-13-2-map-compatible-with-redistricting-amendment-rules/

RRH claims many things...

Ryan will be fine.

[Gass3268]

RRH claims this map can work with the rules. With the way ohio is trending this would not shock me.

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2018/11/27/ohio-13-2-map-compatible-with-redistricting-amendment-rules/

RRH claims many things...

Ryan will be fine.

This map would result in legit redistricting reform in Ohio so fast your head would spin. Worst thing Republicans can do in Ohio is try to abuse the new rules. My guess is they try to keep the status quo, maybe clean up Hamilton County.

[Virginiá]

This map would result in legit redistricting reform in Ohio so fast your head would spin. Worst thing Republicans can do in Ohio is try to abuse the new rules. My guess is they try to keep the status quo, maybe clean up Hamilton County.

I'd like to think that if things don't actually get any better for Democrats, they will try again at real reform. The whole reason we have this CD redistricting commission is because Republicans wanted to compromise instead of risk something that harmed their corrupt ambitions even more. If the compromise turns out to be worthless, people will not be happy with that.

Although then again, that is what the 4 year time limit for partisan maps is for I suppose.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Kings had something like 1550 ballots out. They reported like 1400 last week that slightly broke for Cox, and now they reported another 153, that broke 94-59 (61% to 39%) for Cox. So I think Kings is probably mostly done.

Now it is 50.28-49.72 for Cox, with Cox ahead by 623 votes, 56,847 to 56,224.



https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1068942532589969408

[Badger]

This election really is something. You could've argued that Dems did better because of low turnout or that Trump's base didn't show up -- but nope, this was presidential level turnout, with Dems turning out 60 million votes, and even WITH Trump's base being awakened, they nearly took the house by 10 million votes. That's incredible.

Which leads me to think that this election is some indication of 2020. You couldn't argue that 2010 meant the defeat of Obama since the turnout was pretty low, but this election signaled mass enthusiasm in the opposition with the Democrats beating the GOP by nearly 10 mill in such a turnout.

Essentially, the Dem candidate in 2020 needs to live in PA, WI, and MI. Based on 2018, we have a good starting point.

M e h. This may be foolish this after 2016, but I just don't see pulling out Pennsylvania or Michigan again. It was like Obama carrying Indiana in 2008. The difference is whereas Indiana Shipley reverted to Norm in 2012, Trump has actively burned Bridges with pretty much any voter who ever supported Obama in either one of those States.

Wisconsin is still competitive I'll say, but only kind of in the same way Texas is for Democrats.

[Zaybay]

This election really is something. You could've argued that Dems did better because of low turnout or that Trump's base didn't show up -- but nope, this was presidential level turnout, with Dems turning out 60 million votes, and even WITH Trump's base being awakened, they nearly took the house by 10 million votes. That's incredible.

Which leads me to think that this election is some indication of 2020. You couldn't argue that 2010 meant the defeat of Obama since the turnout was pretty low, but this election signaled mass enthusiasm in the opposition with the Democrats beating the GOP by nearly 10 mill in such a turnout.

Essentially, the Dem candidate in 2020 needs to live in PA, WI, and MI. Based on 2018, we have a good starting point.

M e h. This may be foolish this after 2016, but I just don't see pulling out Pennsylvania or Michigan again. It was like Obama carrying Indiana in 2008. The difference is whereas Indiana Shipley reverted to Norm in 2012, Trump has actively burned Bridges with pretty much any voter who ever supported Obama in either one of those States.

Wisconsin is still competitive I'll say, but only kind of in the same way Texas is for Democrats.

I cant tell if you are implying the Rust Belt is gone for Ds, or that the Rs winning it was a "once in a blue moon" thing.

[Aurelio21]

M e h. This may be foolish this after 2016, but I just don't see pulling out Pennsylvania or Michigan again. It was like Obama carrying Indiana in 2008. The difference is whereas Indiana Shipley reverted to Norm in 2012, Trump has actively burned Bridges with pretty much any voter who ever supported Obama in either one of those States.

Wisconsin is still competitive I'll say, but only kind of in the same way Texas is for Democrats.

I cant tell if you are implying the Rust Belt is gone for Ds, or that the Rs winning it was a "once in a blue moon" thing.

I think that Badger meant bythe one "pulling this out" Mr Trump. Yet I do not see Mr Trump go down as easily. Please keep in mind that in all 3 states, the legislatures are in R control. The state surpreme courts in MI(which is dominated by the federalist society) and WI, too.
Only the PA legislature may get Democratic control, and cannot implement voter suppressioin of Democratic leaning voters with laws voter ID and anti-electoral-fraud laws (fraud = the Democrat wins by having more votes). For me as outsider, it is striking that the GOP accuses everyone of "voter fraud", but in 90 % actual voter fraud (NC-9, VA-2 etc) is done by GOP-affiliated persons and groups. Thus "voter fraud" should be generally defined as status if the GOP does not win.

Mr Trump will most certainly implement draconic protective tarifs on cars. Let's be clear, this will not get one single job back, but might swing Michigan and Wisconsin back into his column for once.

[Badger]

This election really is something. You could've argued that Dems did better because of low turnout or that Trump's base didn't show up -- but nope, this was presidential level turnout, with Dems turning out 60 million votes, and even WITH Trump's base being awakened, they nearly took the house by 10 million votes. That's incredible.

Which leads me to think that this election is some indication of 2020. You couldn't argue that 2010 meant the defeat of Obama since the turnout was pretty low, but this election signaled mass enthusiasm in the opposition with the Democrats beating the GOP by nearly 10 mill in such a turnout.

Essentially, the Dem candidate in 2020 needs to live in PA, WI, and MI. Based on 2018, we have a good starting point.

M e h. This may be foolish this after 2016, but I just don't see pulling out Pennsylvania or Michigan again. It was like Obama carrying Indiana in 2008. The difference is whereas Indiana Shipley reverted to Norm in 2012, Trump has actively burned Bridges with pretty much any voter who ever supported Obama in either one of those States.

Wisconsin is still competitive I'll say, but only kind of in the same way Texas is for Democrats.

I cant tell if you are implying the Rust Belt is gone for Ds, or that the Rs winning it was a "once in a blue moon" thing.

The ladder. That first sentence should have read that I can't see Trump pulling out Ohio or Michigan again.

[wbrocks67]

I don't particularly see Trump pulling out WI, PA, OR MI again after seeing the 2018 (and 2017) results, but I also didn't expect to him to win all 3 in 2016 either. So, the Dem nominee should be extra cautious this time around and still spend plenty of time there. Sure, we'd love a big victory, but after seeing Hillary's miss in '16, the best route IMO is to just to solidly that 270 and than anything extra is gravy.

[wbrocks67]

Does anyone know when PA certifies its results? I saw the #s changed a bit over the past week or two, assuming it was extra absentees and provisionals. Wasn't sure if it was all wrapped up yet though.

[Landslide Lyndon]

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

LMAO

https://mobile.twitter.com/wyattsmommy/status/1069011972501303296

[lfromnj]

BALLOTS IMPOUNDED IN NM 2nd.

Probably a nothingburger but I would keep an eye on it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

BALLOTS IMPOUNDED IN NM 2nd.

Probably a nothingburger but I would keep an eye on it.

Link

[lfromnj]

BALLOTS IMPOUNDED IN NM 2nd.

Probably a nothingburger but I would keep an eye on it.

Link

sorry I thought I posted it

yeah I would just keep an eye on it. Its most likely a salty loser but if it expands we can probably add it to the NC thread?

[GeorgiaModerate]

BALLOTS IMPOUNDED IN NM 2nd.

Probably a nothingburger but I would keep an eye on it.

Link

sorry I thought I posted it

yeah I would just keep an eye on it. Its most likely a salty loser but if it expands we can probably add it to the NC thread?

I have no problem with a losing candidate checking the absentee ballots in a close race, especially in light of what's happened in NC-09.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

BALLOTS IMPOUNDED IN NM 2nd.

Probably a nothingburger but I would keep an eye on it.

Link

sorry I thought I posted it

yeah I would just keep an eye on it. Its most likely a salty loser but if it expands we can probably add it to the NC thread?

This, but I'd caution that Harrell has been kinda throwing a public temper-tantrum ever since she lost.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1070029311590187009

[wesmoorenerd]

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1070029311590187009

RIP Governor Lopez-Cantera

[MAINEiac4434]

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1070029311590187009

RIP Governor Lopez-Cantera

Interesting that he’s giving up seniority.

[Antonio the Sixth]

BALLOTS IMPOUNDED IN NM 2nd.

Probably a nothingburger but I would keep an eye on it.

Link

This is ridiculous. Torres-Small won by 4000 votes - there are literally dozens of races that were closer.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyway, there was a vote dump from Kern and Cox gained a couple votes again. The only county with votes left is Tulare.

[Roblox]

BALLOTS IMPOUNDED IN NM 2nd.

Probably a nothingburger but I would keep an eye on it.

Link

This is ridiculous. Torres-Small won by 4000 votes - there are literally dozens of races that were closer.

I'm sure the republicans nagging on Bill Nelson and Andrew Gillum for allegedly being sore losers will have a lot to say about this.

[lfromnj]

BALLOTS IMPOUNDED IN NM 2nd.

Probably a nothingburger but I would keep an eye on it.

Link

This is ridiculous. Torres-Small won by 4000 votes - there are literally dozens of races that were closer.

I'm sure the republicans nagging on Bill Nelson and Andrew Gillum for allegedly being sore losers will have a lot to say about this.

Mind you I said both were sore losers