Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Lord Halifax]

Strange how this thread has gone quiet lately, wasn't WW3 meant to have started by now?

The uprising in Kazakhstan seems to have delayed it.

[Lord Halifax]

Once it's accepted that the US is not going to put ground troops into Ukraine than a military solution is basically off the table from the NATO side; even the whole of the EU would not be able to muster an Army that would make a difference and frankly I think we're saving that actual panic for when one of the NATO Article 5 allies gets invaded and we actually need to put on a show.

Russia having to fight a "small, but significant" force of e.g. 50k French, Polish and Romanian soldiers would make a difference. Russia is not interested in a military conflict with EU countries even if they could easily win it, they know it would jeopardize their long term economic interests and fighting a nuclear power like France would be inherently risky. It's not a matter of defeating Russia on the battle field, but showing we mean business and that it'll have actual consequence (as in dead soldiers, confiscated oligarch assets, loss of trade and investment etc.) if they do it.

[Lord Halifax]

Not sure if it's the right place for this but this Lithuanian MP is spitting pure facts

https://mobile.twitter.com/MatasMaldeikis/status/1485569942023983109

Based

As I said earlier in the thread: it's Europe, what state is not a construct?

That's generally the case all over the world, so the "it's Europe" part is odd. All states in the Americas and nearly all in Africa (only three exceptions) are ahistorical constructs, while it's Asia and Europe that have nearly all of the states with old (in some cases very old) historical roots even if the modern borders are different.

[Lord Halifax]

Not sure if it's the right place for this but this Lithuanian MP is spitting pure facts

https://mobile.twitter.com/MatasMaldeikis/status/1485569942023983109

Based

As I said earlier in the thread: it's Europe, what state is not a construct?

That's generally the case all over the world, so the "it's Europe" part is odd. All states in the Americas and nearly all in Africa (only three exceptions) are ahistorical constructs, while it's Asia and Europe that have nearly all of the states with old (in some cases very old) historical roots even if the modern borders are different.

Egypt, Ethiopia, and......?

Morocco, arguably dating back to the 11th century and ruled by various Berber dynasties in the Middle Ages. Conquered by the Arab Saadis in 1549 and reunited by the currently reigning Alaouite dynasty in 1631 after a few decades of turmoil and disintegration. The brief French and Spanish protectorates don't change the fact that Morocco as a polity is as old as many Western European countries.

[Lord Halifax]

Not sure if it's the right place for this but this Lithuanian MP is spitting pure facts

https://mobile.twitter.com/MatasMaldeikis/status/1485569942023983109

Based

As I said earlier in the thread: it's Europe, what state is not a construct?

That's generally the case all over the world, so the "it's Europe" part is odd. All states in the Americas and nearly all in Africa (only three exceptions) are ahistorical constructs, while it's Asia and Europe that have nearly all of the states with old (in some cases very old) historical roots even if the modern borders are different.

For your information, once upon a time there was a medieval state called Rus. The capital of Rus was located in Kiev. The so-called Kievan Rus is the historical precedent of present-day Russia. I'm spitting pure facts

https://www.britannica.com/topic/Kyivan-Rus

I don't think that's a pretext for an invasion, but the tweet about the Grand Duchy pf Lithuania is moronic. Kievan Rus is older

Did you intend to reply to someone else??

[Lord Halifax]

https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1490804393813450758

“Germany is increasingly viewed more of a Russian ally than a western ally by many in  Eastern Europe and Kyiv.”

[Lord Halifax]

I guess Stalingrad never happened.

That was the Soviet Union, not Russia.

[Lord Halifax]

I understand you all are trying to keep your morale up posting pro-Ukraine propaganda, but seriously, this is just Day 3 of the operation.

The only way Ukraine will "win" is if Putin orders a retreat. Again, "Black Swan Event" notwithstanding, fat chance of that happening now that he's being egged on by Xi and Hegel's Spirit of History.

Why are self-styled "realists" such as yourself making out that "barring some unforeseen miracle, Russia will still win this war" is some sort of deeply profound and TRUTH TELLING statement that most of us aren't already well aware of??

To be honest, I'm becoming convinced that Putin is now so away with the fairies he genuinely thought Ukrainians would welcome his troops as liberators.  

Because they are as delusional in their own way as Baghdad Bob was during the Iraq War? Iraq lasted (by memory) 25 days before total collapse. We should at least give Russia that long before we all conclude (gloat) Putin's scheme is a miserable failure.

The invasion of Iraq turned into a miserable failure for the US after the collapse, and that's probably what most of us think will happen in Ukraine.

[Lord Halifax]

Here is the Wikipedia Article on the Azov Battalion:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion

Lol, it says right there that the battalion is majority Russian.

majority russophone, not the same thing.

[Lord Halifax]

Bolsonaro is not on Russia's side. He just refuses to take Ukraine's side.
Maduro on the other hand...

‘Neutral’ and ‘On Russia’s side’ is quite a fine distinction these days.

Only because the Western narrative decided to force places that aren’t involved with this to pick a side.

Brazil has long been a neutral country, that’s our main diplomatic approach since the 90s. We don’t want enemies. Bolsonaro adopting neutral stance, against these harsh sanctions against Russia, is something that even a leftist government would support because it’s close to a consensus approach:

https://www.twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1498370398496477191
At least on this some level of long-term consistency is maintained although they messed on the UN vote. Follows neutrality position and helps to not isolate Russia even more. Literally the first thing this government does in almost 4 years that isn’t completely dumb and a reason of shame. This isn’t our conflict and it’s wrong to take any side, stay friends with both US and Russia in order to find a middle ground solution.

Especially when there’s the risk of nuclear conflict, it’s scary how some people here want to escalate things so aggressively when them and their countries are not even involved on this.

Well then, under your logic Brazil should follow the same stance if the U.S. invaded, say, Cuba?

I somehow doubt that would be the case, tankie.

Neither USA or RUSSIA or CHINA. Cuba, Mexico, Venezuela, Argentina are Latin American neighbors and therefore ARE our problem. Other places far away are not.

If everyone who doesn’t side with your cause is a “tankie” you will find not much sympathy here, as the mainstream forces here on both right and left support neutrality.

If you don’t respect or sympathize with the Latin American background and perspective, there’s not much reason for people to try to look through the Eastern European one either.

The Ukrainian cause is valid, but there’s a whole context behind it that relates to each place differently. And that’s okay.

You won’t find this “shame rhetoric forcing into submission to what I want” to work that much here within our diplomacy or with me. I favor respectful debates.

The problem is that if a great power attacks a smaller neighbor trying to annex it you can't be genuinely neutral as "neutrality" means you accept the aggression as a fait accompli. It's a faux neutrality. And in a globalized world "it's far away, so not our problem" is hogwash. If big democracies like India and Brazil stay "faux neutral" in the face of naked aggression they're undermining the rule based world order, which all democracies - not just Western ones - should have an interest in upholding.

[Lord Halifax]

The last beating of black people in the Ukraine would have been by the Nazi SS Einsatzgruppen in 1941.

Unlikely there were any black people in Ukraine in 1941.

[Lord Halifax]

Difficult to work out whether the Brest-Litovsk Zwei stans are being ironic or not, but worth remembering that present day Russia is essentially within the borders of what was agreed at Brest-Litovsk.

Gee, I wonder...

If there is one thing that’s clear, it’s that this whole Ukraine crisis has broken Cassius’s brain.

I mean, my brain’s been broken since I read the Usborne Internet Linked Encyclopedia of History from cover to cover in 2000, but I’m not the one dismantling the global economy in order to make a point.

Yes, because the reason we are imposing sanctions is totally to own the Russkies and not because they decided to invade a sovereign nation of 40 million people and now are literally razing cities to the f**king ground.

Are the sanctions stopping that?

Do you have a f**king crystal ball?

So that’s a no is it?

They're clearly hurting the interests of the oligarchs, which increases the likelihood that someone within the governing elite in Russia will topple Putin, and that's the only easy way out of the crisis.

[Lord Halifax]

Anyway, the West clearly appears to be approaching the limits of sanctions. The shift towards seizing the yachts and homes of Russian businessmen abroad clearly smacks of desperation.

I don't see it as desperate at all. Giving the oligarchs a direct personal incentive to get back to the pre-invasion situation (by getting rid of Putin) seems like an obvious move. Many (arguably most) of the playgrounds of the rich are located in Western countries or small island nations dependent on the West, so if those are off limits it becomes a lot less enjoyable to be an oligarch. 

[Lord Halifax]

Kremlin: Neutral Ukraine with  own army possible compromise option

Meanwhile, some Putin crony on Russian state TV yesterday was ranting about "taking back" Alaska and Antarctica <sic> once they had restored the entire Tsarist-cum-Soviet empire.

The key difference between the entire Tsarist and Soviet empires is the former Ottoman and Persian territories ceded to Turkey in the Treaty of Kars (1921). Stalin gave up on taking them back after WW2 due to the US backing Turkey (his fellow Georgian Beria had been particularly keen to get them back).

[Lord Halifax]

Isn't there also Poland and Finland?

Kind of, but they weren't part of Russia itself. Finland was a Grand Duchy and Poland a Kingdom (since 1815).

[Lord Halifax]

Ahnold's message to the Russian people:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/1504426844199669762

I like it! He's actually good at this, just like his post-January 6 address.

Too bad Ahnuld was never able to run for president.

He's a Republican

Ahnold was a bad governor, is a bad person, and is a mixed bag as an actor, but he's consistently nailed foundational issues of democratic self-rule and its discontents.

I think it's incredibly unfair to say he's a bad person. What prompted you to say that? I've never heard anything but positive stories/anecdotes about him.

sexual harassment incl. some women claiming him and his bodybuilder friends intimidated them into having sex back in the 70s

[Lord Halifax]

Ahnold's message to the Russian people:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/1504426844199669762

I like it! He's actually good at this, just like his post-January 6 address.

Too bad Ahnuld was never able to run for president.

He's a Republican

Ahnold was a bad governor, is a bad person, and is a mixed bag as an actor, but he's consistently nailed foundational issues of democratic self-rule and its discontents.

I think it's incredibly unfair to say he's a bad person. What prompted you to say that? I've never heard anything but positive stories/anecdotes about him.

sexual harassment incl. some women claiming him and his bodybuilder friends intimidated them into having sex back in the 70s

I'll take it with a giant grain of salt. I kinda doubt 70's Arnold had to intimidate a woman into having sex with him. We're talking about someone who had the physique of Zeus here, not a bloated orange bag of loose skin with a skinned rodent on his head like donald trump.

lots of powerful, attractive, high status men rape and coerce women, not because they cant' get laid otherwise, but because they feel entitled to sex

[Lord Halifax]

Western observers (and the Ukrainian government) have been trying very hard to make this into a clash of systems and ideologies. It’s not; it really is ‘two tribes go to war’.

well, bigger tribe attacks smaller tribe it had promised not to attack in international agreement (after smaller tribe voluntarily gave up its most dangerous weapons), claiming smaller tribe has no right to exist and is really just a part of their tribe.

the main problem with the "tribal" argument is that it leads to a "both sides are as bad as each other (so we shouldn't pick sides)" logic, but even if Ukraine was a fascist dictatorship or an Islamic theocracy Russia would still have had no right to attack it, and it's necessary to prevent Russia from gaining any advantages from its invasion to prevent other great powers from embarking on wars of aggression/conquest.

I agree Ukraine is more oligarch dominated than Russia, but it's easier to democratize an oligarchy with slightly dysfunctional democratic institutions and competitive elections (which is arguably what both the US and Ukraine are), than an authoritarian state with "democratic window dressing" like Russia.

[Lord Halifax]

Although not much of a division within Latin America and the Caribbean:

But do go on about the West. Fascists of a feather flock together and all that.

You mean condemning Russian invasion? That’s just everyone’s sane position. Even China doesn’t agree with it even if they won’t directly oppose Russia and will rather hide behind neutrality.

One very different thing is supporting this articulation of full isolation of a country and realistically, you cannot deny there isn’t a major geographical divide shaping up. Forget China, there’s also:

- India is working for an alternative exchange way to go around western sanctions
- South Africa publicly saying the war is NATO’s fault
- Brazil joined the countries above in asking for Russia’s claim of US Biological labs to be investigated and wanting Russia partnership for its nuclear subs projects
- Saudi Arabia (!!!!) studying to make payments to Russia in Chinese coin. Even Israel, seen as western ally, behaved more like Iran in this issue lol
- Mexico, Argentina and others positioning against the international institutions being kidnapped to propel an isolation of Russia. And those all are places which condemned the invasion when it started, as you said.

The only non-Anglo and non-European countries that are aligning are Japan and South Korea. You can’t talk about “international community united” without almost all of Asia, all of Africa and Latin America. It’s a divide being stimulated that simply isn’t good for anyone, if you don’t understand the possible consequences.

Okay, assuming you're right (and ignoring that there are more exceptions than the ones you mention), why is "the developing world" IYO unwilling to do anything efficient to stop Russia's agression?

[Lord Halifax]

2 Provinces, which were already mostly under de facto Russian control

no, the separatists only controlled a third of each of the two oblasts before the war.

[Lord Halifax]

Ha! https://gur.gov.ua/content/sotrudnyky-fsb-rossyy-uchastvuiushchye-v-prestupnoi-deiatelnosty-stranyahressora-na-terrytoryy-evropy.html

Ukrainian intelligence just released the names of 620 FSB agents throughout Europe. And...their dates of birth, addresses, places of employment and make and registration numbers of their cars. OUCH!

The FSB in Europe is basically crippled.

Number 611 on that list isn't me I promise.

you seem a bit too eager to deny it Vlad

611. SHCHEMELININ VLADIMIR SERGEEVICH, 01/10/1965, 4510523559, 01/19/2010 MOSCOW IN THE MESHCHANSKIY DISTRICT, 770007, 107031, Moscow, Bolshaya Lubyanka St., 1/3, Federal Security Service (FSB) of the Russian Federation, Drinks. Systematically violates traffic rules

[Lord Halifax]

Here's some lighthearted news on the energy side, China has re-sold US LNG shipments to Europe for profit, taking advantage of the spread between European and Asian natural gas prices caused by the war. We're most likely buying more gas from Russia at a discount to make up for the shortfall. As a Chinese person working in financial services, I heartily approve of this. We take advantage of a market arbitrage and make money with no risk, win!

China Sells U.S. LNG to Europe at a Hefty Profit

China resold several U.S. liquefied natural gas shipments to Europe, a rare move by the world’s top buyer that highlights how sky-high prices are rerouting trade flows.

Unipec, the trading arm of China’s state-owned Sinopec, sold at least three LNG cargoes for delivery through June to ports in Europe via a tender that closed late last week, according to traders with knowledge of the matter. The shipments will load from Venture Global LNG Inc.’s Calcasieu Pass export facility in Louisiana, where Sinopec has a deal to purchase LNG, they said, requesting anonymity to discuss private details.

European natural gas rates surged to a record high last week on fears that the war in Ukraine will curb flows from top supplier Russia. The rally prompted Unipec’s traders to turn away from the lower-priced Chinese market, even as Beijing demand its importers secure more fuel amid concerns over wartime disruptions.

I was thinking the same thing when I read about Germany going to Qatar to buy LNG.  I thought the best way for Qatar to make a bunch of money without any work is to outsource the gas transport to Russia to send the gas to Germany via Nord Stream II and then Qatar pays Russia for the gas they sent to Germany.

I doubt Qatar would do something so extremely provocative with the FIFA World Cup coming up, it's the sort of thing that would put massive pressure on major European football associations to boycott the tournament.

[Lord Halifax]

Reiterating. The facts on the ground have changed in the past month, the basic questions haven't. Personally unlike most of Atlas I quite enjoy being alive. Thus, an >80% of genocide is preferable to the 1-2% chance of a mass extinction event.

I enjoy being alive too, but I still disagree. Having to accept the right of nuclear powers to commit genocide if they want to in order to stay alive is "no way to live" to quote a prolific yellow poster. We need to call Putin's nuclear bluff.

[Lord Halifax]

"Hundreds of volunteers from Belarus have joined the Belarusian Kastus Kalinouski Battalion and other formations of the Ukrainian armed forces with more than a 1,000 others still awaiting vetting and training, Belarusian opposition leaders say.

Freedom for Russia, a separate unit staffed by Russian citizens, including prisoners of war who have switched sides, is also preparing to deploy to the front lines. It is backed by some prominent Russian opposition leaders in exile, who say that the presence of Russian soldiers helping defend Ukraine and prevent atrocities would go a long way toward healing the rift between the two peoples in the future."

"Without an independent Ukraine, there won’t be an independent Belarus"

"As soon as we liberate Ukraine, we will go to liberate Minsk"

https://www.wsj.com/articles/belarusians-russians-join-ukraines-military-hoping-for-freedom-at-home-11649325276

A second Belarusian battalion, Pahonia, is also being formed and there are Belarusian units within the Ukrainian territorial defense forces in Odessa and Lutsk.

[Lord Halifax]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-russian-oil-ban-hits-131311689.html

Hungary looks set to put a stop to the European Union’s ban on Russian oil imports after leader Viktor Orbán compared the proposal to an atomic bomb.

Screw the EU then and each nation should unilaterally implement their sanctions .

Better yet. Kick Hungary out of the EU. It's high time. What a mistake that there are no official provisions for doing so.

Why do they have single members vetos?
Who looks at Poland-Lithuania and says ‘yeah, that’s a good idea’?

that's the norm when sovereign nation states cooperate.