Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ukraininian government claims they're going on the offensive

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1504011757471338497

[jaichind]

Kremlin: Neutral Ukraine with  own army possible compromise option

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1504021901169070080
Seems yesterday's move on Odessa was a feint + whatever they were doing with their minesweepers (to prepare the waters for a potential landing) would seem the smarter move. Opening another front which would be very isolated from the rest of the Russian forces could easily backfire - the account I've linked has recently posted his analysis (tl;dr he thinks it'd be a bad idea in the best case). Merely threatening to open another front keeps some Ukrainian assets away from the main offensives.

The weakness of Ukraine's navy means these ships are relatively secure to just mill about on the high seas.

I wonder why there aren't more navy assets around Mariupol, and whether we'll them move there soon.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Photo I discovered at an WWII exhibition in Berlin yesterday. Czechoslovak exiles in America are protesting the German occupation of Czechia in March 1939. That was a bit eerie to see.

[CumbrianLefty]

Kremlin: Neutral Ukraine with  own army possible compromise option

Meanwhile, some Putin crony on Russian state TV yesterday was ranting about "taking back" Alaska and Antarctica <sic> once they had restored the entire Tsarist-cum-Soviet empire.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Kremlin: Neutral Ukraine with  own army possible compromise option

Meanwhile, some Putin crony on Russian state TV yesterday was ranting about "taking back" Alaska and Antarctica <sic> once they had restored the entire Tsarist-cum-Soviet empire.

If current negotiations really result in what has been reported so far hardcore Putinists will have to eat a lot of crow.

They bombed Kyiv back to the Second World War in return for a neutrality pledge that rhetorics aside had de facto been the situation prior to the Russian invasion. Possible side effect: Sweden and Finland join NATO. Toxic masculinity at work, I suppose.

[Lord Halifax]

Kremlin: Neutral Ukraine with  own army possible compromise option

Meanwhile, some Putin crony on Russian state TV yesterday was ranting about "taking back" Alaska and Antarctica <sic> once they had restored the entire Tsarist-cum-Soviet empire.

The key difference between the entire Tsarist and Soviet empires is the former Ottoman and Persian territories ceded to Turkey in the Treaty of Kars (1921). Stalin gave up on taking them back after WW2 due to the US backing Turkey (his fellow Georgian Beria had been particularly keen to get them back).

[CumbrianLefty]

Isn't there also Poland and Finland?

[Lord Halifax]

Isn't there also Poland and Finland?

Kind of, but they weren't part of Russia itself. Finland was a Grand Duchy and Poland a Kingdom (since 1815).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I saw videos of Abkhazian and South Ossetian Forces mobilizing and getting on trains earlier today. Putin is getting desperate. He really needs Belarus to enter the war but for whatever reason Lukashenka has refused so far.

Neil Hauer is reporting that the forces moving out of South Ossetia include the puppet government's troops, not just Russian soldiers. The Georgian population is pretty small - any war there would be a sideshow and is very unlikely, but aggressive generals launching an offensive can't be completely ruled out.

[Torie]

I don't understand the play of the Chernobyl card at all. What is Putin trying to accomplish here?

And a bit about the Ukraine counterattacks from the NYT:

The Ukrainian armed forces have launched counterattacks against Russian troops outside the capital, Kyiv, and in the Russian-occupied city of Kherson, according to a senior Ukrainian military official.

The goal of the operation, which began on Tuesday night and was continuing on Wednesday, was to inflict mass causalities on the Russian military, rather than to win back territory, the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to reveal sensitive military information.

And Biden after Zelensky speaks to Congress will provide another 800 million in aid to Ukraine.

Anybody pick up anything regarding giving Ukraine better missiles yet?

[Person Man]

I don't understand the play of the Chernobyl card at all. What is Putin trying to accomplish here?

And a bit about the Ukraine counterattacks from the NYT:

The Ukrainian armed forces have launched counterattacks against Russian troops outside the capital, Kyiv, and in the Russian-occupied city of Kherson, according to a senior Ukrainian military official.

The goal of the operation, which began on Tuesday night and was continuing on Wednesday, was to inflict mass causalities on the Russian military, rather than to win back territory, the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to reveal sensitive military information.

And Biden after Zelensky speaks to Congress will provide another 800 million in aid to Ukraine.

Anybody pick up anything regarding giving Ukraine better missiles yet?

It is unfortunate that was has started as a war is now becoming a buffalo hunt.

[dead0man]

If Russia defends against counterattacks as well as it defends it's convoys, Ukraine might be able to put some pain on them.

[ugabug]

Looks like Ukraine is seriously considering neutrality status but with guarantees of a no fly zone by the west should conflict break out again and of course to keep their military intact.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/16/russia-and-ukraine-close-to-agreeing-on-neutral-status-says-sergei-lavrov


https://twitter.com/Reevellp/status/1504057766813618180?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctw...

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1504044463357939721?ref_src=twsrc%5Et...

[Meclazine for Israel]

Kremlin: Neutral Ukraine with  own army possible compromise option

Meanwhile, some Putin crony on Russian state TV yesterday was ranting about "taking back" Alaska and Antarctica <sic> once they had restored the entire Tsarist-cum-Soviet empire.

I will defend my beloved Antarctica down to the last penguin.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Anybody pick up anything regarding giving Ukraine better missiles yet?

Big news, but to be taken with a grain of salt. The US probably has a very limited number of these systems they use for training/analysis, but beyond that, they'll need to arrange trades with European allies (I don't think any non-NATO/EU states have both the capability and the willingness to do this):

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1504067534684921862
Breaking this down, and bearing in mind MANPADS tend to have a maximum altitude of 4-7km:

- SA-14 = 9K34 Strela-3, newer MANPADS (although the most updated versions are only in Russia). These don't change much.

- SA-8 = 9K33 Osa. "Short-range", but (depending on the variant) reaches 5 - 40km altitude and goes further horizontally than a MANPADS could. Lots active in Bulgaria, Greece, Poland and Romania.

- SA-12 = S-300, V variant. About 30km in altitude, but much longer horizontal range and generally a more formidable system. What is interesting here is that no European countries have these and the US only has one on the books, which is supposed to be missing a targeting radar. It is possible they have cut a secret deal with another country or have hidden stocks of this.

- SA-10 = S-300, P variant. 150km in altitude, even more range. One in Slovakia and some in Bulgaria and Greece.

[Torie]

I have trouble believing that Putin would agree to the West giving Ukraine ironclad security guarantees. That means he thinks he has lost. So my pessimistic instinct is that this is not being done in good faith. I hope I'm wrong.

And here is an extremely well written article that at once both inspires and depresses me, particularly the bit implying that if push comes to shove, the West if it comes to that, will do nothing to stop a mass genocide in Ukraine.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/16/politics/analysis-zelensky-appeal-to-americans-wednesday/index.html

[pppolitics]

Kremlin: Neutral Ukraine with own army possible compromise option

That's a stark admission that Russia doesn't have the resources to occupy all of Ukraine.

[CumbrianLefty]

Kremlin: Neutral Ukraine with own army possible compromise option

That's a stark admission that Russia doesn't have the resources to occupy all of Ukraine.

Something that was fairly obvious to many of us before this war started.

[pppolitics]

Kremlin: Neutral Ukraine with own army possible compromise option

That's a stark admission that Russia doesn't have the resources to occupy all of Ukraine.

Something that was fairly obvious to many of us before this war started.

Clearly, it wasn't to Putin, who is just coming to realize that bit off more than he can chew.

[Torie]

Anybody pick up anything regarding giving Ukraine better missiles yet?

Big news, but to be taken with a grain of salt. The US probably has a very limited number of these systems they use for training/analysis, but beyond that, they'll need to arrange trades with European allies (I don't think any non-NATO/EU states have both the capability and the willingness to do this):

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1504067534684921862
Breaking this down, and bearing in mind MANPADS tend to have a maximum altitude of 4-7km:
- SA-7 = 9K32 Strela-2, older MANPADS (worse than Stingers). Meh.

- SA-14 = 9K34 Strela-3, newer MANPADS (although the most updated versions are only in Russia). These also don't change much.

- SA-8 = 9K33 Osa. "Short-range", but (depending on the variant) reaches 5 - 40km altitude and goes further horizontally than a MANPADS could. Lots active in Bulgaria, Greece, Poland and Romania.

- SA-12 = S-300, V variant. About 30km in altitude, but much longer horizontal range and generally a more formidable system. What is interesting here is that no European countries have these and the US only has one on the books, which is supposed to be missing a targeting radar. It is possible they have cut a secret deal with another country or have hidden stocks of this.

- SA-10 = S-300, P variant. 150km in altitude, even more range. One in Slovakia and some in Bulgaria and Greece.

FWIW, I just heard on CNN that SAM's are on their way to Ukraine. I suspect Biden will announce this, with perhaps more detail, in his 11:45 a.m.press conference.

Lots of missiles. I agree with Biden on no jets and no no fly zone I think, but the SAM's should have been delivered a week ago at least. Biden had a bad case of the slows there IMO. Perhaps there was a good reason for the delay. If so, I would like to know what it is.

Addendum: Congressman McCaul is being interviewed on CNN and made news: S-300 missiles are now "in country," meaning now in Ukraine and CNN said that comment "made news."

[jaichind]

Financial Times reports that Ukraine and Russia have made significant progress on a tentative 15-point peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces, according to three people involved in the talks.

[ugabug]

I have trouble believing that Putin would agree to the West giving Ukraine ironclad security guarantees. That means he thinks he has lost. So my pessimistic instinct is that this is not being done in good faith. I hope I'm wrong.

And here is an extremely well written article that at once both inspires and depresses me, particularly the bit implying that if push comes to shove, the West if it comes to that, will do nothing to stop a mass genocide in Ukraine.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/16/politics/analysis-zelensky-appeal-to-americans-wednesday/index.html

Unfortunately that's what I'm afraid of as well. While I'm no where near as negative on Biden's handling of this situation as some on here are i worry his repeated statements that we're not going to fight a war against Russia in Ukraine will end up emboldening Putin to try using chemical weapons if he gets desperate enough and thinks the US won't do anything. Even more so when you have the Secretary of State being asked out right what the American response would be to a chemical attack in Ukraine and his response is a vague "they'll be severe consequences".

[sting in the rafters]

Apologies if someone already posted but some interesting results from the Russian poll published in WaPo last week:

"DO YOU SUPPORT OR DO NOT SUPPORT THE MILITARY OPERATION OF RUSSIA ON THE TERRITORY OF UKRAINE?"
(age w/net support/oppose:)
18-24:29/39
25-30:37/30
31-35:45/24
36-40:52/29
41-55:63/22
56-65:71/14
66+:75/16

(locality)
city >1+M:48/31
city 500k-1M:56/31
city 100k-500k:56/24
city 50k-100k:63/23
city <50k/rural:65/16

(career stage)
studying:36/31
working:56/24
neither studying nor working:49/28
retired:69/17

(if working, for a federal, municipal, or private enterprise)
federal:61/19
municipal/local:77/12
private employee:49/29
private owner: 64/20

(financial situation in past year)
worsened:47/32
stayed the same:62/20
improved:67/15

[dead0man]

Lots of missiles. I agree with Biden on no jets and no no fly zone I think, but the SAM's should have been delivered a week ago at least. Biden had a bad case of the slows there IMO. Perhaps there was a good reason for the delay. If so, I would like to know what it is.

this times a thousand.  There should have been modern missile defense systems in Ukraine a long (months/years) time ago.  The west has failed Ukraine for decades, same with Georgia and the Kurds.