Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

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I mean the standard of living in the West, if large scale trade with China is greatly reduced because of its foreign policy and ambitions, and becoming basically a member in good standing of the axis of evil to over simplify it. I was not as clear as I should have been. I have no illusions about how much of a factor the standard of living of his own people weighs on Xi's mind. It is probably about as much a factor as it is in Putin's mind vis a vis Russians.

I assume that large scale trade with China means cheaper goods for consumers in the West. I guess it is an empirical question as to whether China could successfully be switched out for other East Asian nations, or even that other somewhat problematical nation these days, India.
It would be really bad news if India joined the axis of evil, but I do have trouble getting my mind around India and China being members of the same bad boy club. India's emerging autocratic tendencies are however concerning, beyond its opportunistic bottom feeding of Russian oil when the chips are down, which they are at present.

That is the other thing about Western standards of living, if it needs to go green at an accelerated rate for geopolitical reasons.

We'll see how much this shift in supply chains away from China contributes to inflation. But, the trend is happening now, regardless of official government edicts. Interestingly, China is alone in being the only major economy where inflation is too low. It's also notable that, while China's exports are down, its trade surplus is at a record level, thanks to even worse import numbers. That indicates that China's domestic consumption sector is suffering badly.

As for India, its democracy suffered far worse when Indira Gandhi declared her emergency, so there are plenty of feedback mechanisms to hold its leaders accountable. There's nothing to fear about its opportunistic buying of discounted Russian oil - it's being sold at a loss, anyway. It's doubtful that it could be anywhere near as efficient as China in becoming the world's factory for cheap trinkets, anyway.

You're right that Greenpeace should give Putin an award for accelerating the shift to clean energy.

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Russia is a poor petro state with a economy the same size as Italy, it would be like Italy trying to take over the world. Canada with a population of only 38 million has a bigger economy then Russia.

We can't just look at economic might alone. Iran has a complete basketcase economy, with a GDP less than even Hong Kong, yet is still able to exert its influence far beyond its borders. It even has the ability to disrupt the Ukrainian power grid. Japan is a technological world leader and hosts the (free) world's second largest economy, yet until very recently barely had any military power. So, while a basketcase Russia might be incapable of being a global superpower, it can still find ways to exert its influence at a low cost, especially if its leadership believe it's necessary for their internal security.

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-china-stranglehold-world-food-000026443.html

"Russia and China Have a Stranglehold on the World’s Food Security"

Bloomberg article points out that Russia and Belorus's key role in providing fertilizers to the Global South is a significant tool in their toolbox to win the battle in support within the Global South.  This was pointed out last year as well but it seems the position of most Global South states in the Russia-Ukraine conflict seems to confirm this assertion.

Yes, and? Their position as the dominant exporter of potash doesn't translate into actual support or affection towards them. If that were the case, the entire world should be speaking Arabic due to the Arabs' dominance of global oil markets. Using commodities as a political tool can only be used once, before alternative sources are developed, as the Arabs learned in 1973, the Chinese learned in 2010, and the Russians learned in 2022.

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What will it take for Putin to give up? His quick war has lasted a year and from my understanding they’re losing more territory every day and have not one a major battle in months.

My gut feeling is as long as Putin is in the Kremlin (even as a nominal figure), the Special Military Operation will continue in some form, because it's the only way for him to provide public legitimacy.

Even in the worst-case scenario where the Russians are pushed back to pre-2014 boundaries, Putin can simply spin it as a "successful denazifying of the Ukrainian regime", and pivot to the "next phase of the Special Military Operation", which would involve occasional skirmishes across the Russia-Ukraine border. An occasional bombing of apartment blocks within Russia, just like he did in 1999, would contribute to the sense of fear that he needs to create. As far as Putin is concerned, the SMO is fought as a perpetual war, and needs to continue in perpetuity.

Zelensky faces a different pressure. He's up for re-election in March 2024, with Biden following in November. Zelensky needs to deliver an actual victory before then in order to guarantee his re-election, so it's in his interest to wrap up the war on his terms as soon as possible. It could be that the Russia-Ukraine border resembles the Korean DMZ, where occasional skirmishes are conducted when Putin deems necessary, but both sides agree to end large-scale war.

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PRC is the biggest winner from this war, in soft power terms at least. They are playing their cards well here.

Tell that to the managers of their tech companies who are seeing wave after wave of western sanctions, and the managers of their export companies who have seen a wave of cancellation of orders in the past few months.

But I would think these images play to the Russian narrative domestically.  The "loyal opposition" in Russia should be asking "Why are we fighting a war against our Slavic brothers?"  The Putin response would be "because they have been brainwashed and are under the control of USA and NATO who are out to destroy us".  The images of Biden in Kive I would think play to the Russia narrative domestically to consolidate support for the war.

TIL that pouring salt on the wound of Putin's failure to achieve his goal to take Kyiv in three days can be spun as a victory. I imagine when Allied troops were closing in on Berlin in 1945, Goebbels was able to milk it for maximum propaganda value!

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In Moscow, they are also gearing up for the 1 year anniversary of the war.

“23rd February. For Victory, For Our People, For Truth”

That picture encapsulates why russia is losing the war.
They spend more time and money on propaganda than in military production.

You can't win a great war with giant flat screen TV's.

Actually, the Kremlin has allocated more on its budget for this year towards internal security, than on the military. Everything else is getting cutbacks.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/surge-russias-defence-security-spending-means-cuts-schools-hospitals-2023-2022-11-22/

This is especially telling:

Funding will be cut for state programmes on education, but increased by 513% from this year for "patriotic training" in schools to reflect Russia's view of current and historic events, according to Ranepa and the Gaidar Institute.

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That is low, America spent 1/3rd of it's gdp on defence in WW2.
155$ billion is only half what the USSR spent annually in the 1980's.

I'm making a correction: Russia's budget for the military (4.98 trillion Rubles) is still greater than the budget for internal security (4.42 trillion). But internal security received a far greater increase in funding, and everything else except for patriotic propaganda in schools is facing cutbacks, which reveals how the Kremlin is prioritizing its resources.

That's the greatest indictment against Putin's claim that he was forced to wage the special military operation to save the country. If he truly believed that, he would have had no problem persuading the people - from the billionaire oligarchs to the pensioner in Chelyabinsk - to make a great sacrifice for the Motherland, enabling him to mobilize the entire nation for the war effort, and to do so for at least a year before starting the war. The fact that he didn't bother to do so, and only started mobilizing the nation after a series of disasters on the battlefield, indicates that he views this war through the lens of maintaining his power in the Kremlin, not out of any duty to the Russian nation.

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Now why would Lukashenko feel the need to do this? He has thousands of Russian troops occupying his country as well as his own standing army already.  Is he anticipating a post-war invasion by Ukraine and/or NATO? 

Belarus to form 100,000-150,000 strong volunteer military force

An invasion by Ukraine or NATO isn't happening. You can't convince soldiers in a democracy to die for someone else's freedom.

A third theory, by this armchair pundit: he knows that the only reason he wasn't overthrown after stealing the 2020 election was because Putin rushed in to prop up him. If Putin loses, he will need to find another armed force to maintain his rule, and he can't rely on the military.

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Yup. In Western conservative circles, "Putin never called me transphobic/racist/privileged" remains the strongest argument for Russia. And to non-Western audiences, the descent of U.S. society in a perpetual state of identity war with crazier "progressive" excesses every week also stands in stark contract to Russia's embrace of traditional values, even if one can question the latter in all sorts of ways. I know people here don't like reading it. And I am pro-Ukrainian. But I think this is the objective truth and definitely part of why much of the world hasn't joined the West.

Whatever sympathy for Putin's traditionalist rhetoric in western Europe evaporated the moment his troops crossed the border last year. In the US, "Putin isn't so bad because he doesn't shove pronouns in my face" has no constituency outside the QAnon circles.

As for the non-western world, the consensus seems to be "this is a European problem, not our problem, so it's not fair to force us to take sides on what doesn't concern us". Some, of course, are willing to rhetorically support Russia in order to stick it to the west. But that's not the consensus viewpoint.

And not all of Central and Eastern Europe are as anti-Russian as the Baltics and Poland. Icc mentions Czechia - which is actually not as anti-Russia as Poland; there have been pro-Russian protests in Prague already. I definitely think the culture war/LGBT argument works in a fair number of Eastern European countries.

The problem remains that these pro-Russian sentiments in Central Europe are only confined to old people who long for the good old days. It's not something any government would bother caring about. It's also notable that Poland's right-wing populist government pushed all the buttons in its cultural wars against western liberalism, and was waging a whole slew of legal battles with Brussels. But, the moment Russian troops crossed the border, it settled the disputes and immediately declared itself a pillar of the western alliance.

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-20/putin-s-arms-dealers-put-war-tested-weapons-on-sale-at-uae-show

"Putin’s Arms Dealers Put War-Tested Weapons on Sale at UAE Show"

Russian defense companies were out in force at an arms fair in the United Arab Emirates despite international sanctions, pitching to sell weapons that a top ally of Vladimir Putin said had been battle-tested in the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine.

It seems Russia has surplus weapons production capacity if they are trying to sell arms externally.

Yes, just like how Stalin's USSR and Mao's China both exported grain when millions of their own people were starving.

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Do the leadership of Transnistria even want to be cannon fodder for faraway Moscow which can't support them? If the Ukrainians do move against Transnistria, it will be after the Transnistrian leadership accept a deal they can't refuse. There's no reason for Ukraine to risk a drop of their soldier's blood for land that isn't theirs.

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Do the leadership of Transnistria even want to be cannon fodder for faraway Moscow which can't support them? If the Ukrainians do move against Transnistria, it will be after the Transnistrian leadership accept a deal they can't refuse. There's no reason for Ukraine to risk a drop of their soldier's blood for land that isn't theirs.

Over the long term, it is in Ukraine's interests to remove as much Russian influence from the surrounding region as possible.

Ohhh... so you mean to tell me after decades of supporting Russia and gladly aiding it's troops to violate Moldova's sovereignty in Transnistria for the simple reason of Slavic supremacy, only now do they suddenly care about Russian influence there?

Russia and Ukraine is equally guilty for Transnistria existing today.

Maybe that shift was due to Ukrainians coming to view Russia as their mortal enemy. If Putin was so concerned about Transnistria, he should have thought of it when he made the decision to invade Ukraine.

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-23/the-growing-cash-pile-in-moscow-foreign-investors-can-t-touch

"The Growing Cash Pile in Moscow That Investors Can’t Touch"

Russia also has frozen $150 billion in Western assets in Russia which it could just nationalize if the collective West tries to seize Russian assets in the collective West.  Of course the latter amounts to a much larger number but there are all sorts of legal hurdles to seize frozen Russian assets  and it seems Switzerland is not playing ball anyway.

But, can the Russians make full use of these nationalized foreign investments?

All the Boeing and Airbus aircraft that are leased from western lessors now cannot access spare parts - what will that mean to Russia's civil aviation sector in the coming years?

Much of its manufacturing sector depends on machine tools and components which must be imported from western countries - that sector in particular has suffered the most due to western sanctions.

As for the oil and gas sector, a lot of Russia's oil fields are located in the Arctic, and require components which can only be imported from the western countries. What happens when these components reach the end of their service life?

And frankly, if I were the boss of "China State XYZ Corporation", I would be very leery about signing off on a long-term investment project in Russia. You never know that if/when Russia/China relations take a nosedive, whoever in the Kremlin won't nationalize that project and allow my political rivals at home to throw accusations at me. I would, at the very least, need Xi Jinping's personal sign-off, accompanied with lots of propaganda about his gloriousness in order to maximize the responsibility onto himself. That's why it has always been a fantasy that somehow Chinese (or India) companies could rush in to replace lost western investment.

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Remember that peace plan that was promised by China? Here is the official text:

https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html

Just as I expected, it's a big nothingburger. The points that are valid are mixed in with "give Russia everything it wants", and it doesn't even call for the withdrawal of all Russian troops from Ukraine. The Chinese call impressively-long speeches, and impressively-long writings by Party bureaucrats that mean nothing at all, as "fake, big, and empty". ChatGPT could have generated a better peace plan, because it would have at least called for the withdrawal of Russian troops to at least the pre-2022 positions.

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Of course.  That would be a feature and not a bug.  The point of this peace plan is for the PRC to score points with the Global South vis-à-vis the collective West with Ukraine being collateral damage.  If the plan is just a list of Russian war aims then it loses the superficially neutral aspect of the plan to impress the Global South.  It just has to be a plan that Russia will not reject day 1.  In this case I think it was vague enough for Russia not to reject it out of hand.

Except that just yesterday, the majority of the nations of Latin America, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, as well as large parts of Africa, voted to support the peace plan proposed by Zelensky, which called for a total withdrawal of all Russian troops from all of Ukraine's territories. So, any plan that doesn't meet the points proposed by Zelensky already doesn't gain their support. Of course, Russia will not reject it on day 1, because it was clear that Beijing consulted Moscow before drafting their plan, and everyone knows it. This "plan" fools no one in the Global South, as evidenced by yesterday's vote. They were fully aware about Beijing's plan when they voted yesterday.

Whatever plan there was for Russia to leverage support from the Global South rested on hopes that the war would cause disruption to global food and fuel supplies. That simply hasn't happened, and in fact, global commodities markets are decidedly bearish. So, what happens in Ukraine doesn't bother them either way.

In any case, just right now, Der Spiegel and CNN are reporting about specific contracts that China is apparently making with Russia for military components. These reports are obviously timed to discredit any idea that China is somehow an honest, neutral third-party.

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https://thehill.com/newsletters/1230-report/3866563-the-hills-1230-report-inside-bidens-surprise-trip-to-ukraine/

This article has a link to a picture of Biden's trip where if you look at the bottom of the stairs you can see a Zelensky double.


Another version of this picture where the double is more visible

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1629461267684507648?t=KexFdU9BhDecf-BpTLW...

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Most likely Putin noticed but PRC did something recently which could potentially turn his logic against his likely successors.

This is just restating longtime official policy, not anything new. The PRC has officially called the placenames in the Russian Far East by their Russian names, with the traditional Chinese names acknowledged by parentheses.

In any case, in a hypothetical situation where the PRC has made enemies of all the western-aligned powers and even Russia, it wouldn't have any better outcome than in the last times the ruler of China engaged in such nonsense, under Cixi with the Boxer Rebellion and then under Mao with the Cultural Revolution. So, there's no point to engage in 意淫 (mental self-pleasuring). The whole reason why we're here is because of Putin's 意淫.

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In an interesting development, Serbian rockets have ended up on the battlefield...in the hands of Ukrainian forces!

https://twitter.com/gahamalian/status/1630666072193138688

"We sold rockets to Ukraine on the condition they won't be used on the frontline". They need to come up with a more plausible excuse than that.

The rockets were sold by Serbia to a Canadian company, which then shipped them to Istanbul, and then Bratislava, before being sent to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/JanR210/status/1630267185665826816

I looked up the address stated for "JNJ Import Export Ltd". It's a non-descript cookie-cutter house in upper-middle-class suburban Toronto. I also searched for the name in the Canada corporations registry, and found no matches. However, I did find that the address was the home of two long-dissolved companies. Both of them are headed by a man named Alexander Zivanovic. Someone with that name is also a director in several other companies in a variety of sectors. It seems bizarre, but almost fitting, that someone like that is a shifty weapons dealer.

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Meanwhile, on the diplomatic front:

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1631703725399056384?s=20

The much discussed Global South laughs at Lavrov.

It wasn't the whole picture.

This means, the audience does believe western claims of defending Ukraine's sovereignty to be self-serving, but also recognizing the Kremlin's BS. The Global South is much more nuanced than a certain number of posters here claim.

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I remember a while back I made a L-NY avatar claim that financial fraud is not fraud, as long as there's a genuine for-profit business. So, sometimes he's not always motivated by business interests either.

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https://twitter.com/witte_sergei/status/1632230153064685568

https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1632119515575140352

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https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/indias-oil-deals-with-russia-dent-decades-old-dollar-dominance-2023-03-08/

"India's oil deals with Russia dent decades-old dollar dominance"

India-Russia oil trade is the beginning of the long-term trend away from the petrodollar.

Just one problem: the Indian Rupees that the Russians have received can't be converted to any other currency, and the Russians are struggling to find any Indian products to buy. The two are circumventing this issue by trading in UAE Dirhams, which is - you guessed it - pegged to the dollar.

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/03/06/neft-v-obmen-na-fantiki-rossiiskie-kompanii-ne-znayut-kuda-det-poluchennie-iz-indii-rupii-a35903

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I would argue 2003 is worse.   The lesson from the Russia-Ukraine war is "if you have a boundary dispute with a Great Power then you are not safe" but the lesson from Iraq War is "if you have a political system that a Great Power (potentially thousands of miles away) does not like you are not safe."  It seems the risk of the Iraq War is greater since you can count the number of states you have a border with while who knows which Great Power thousands of miles might like your system or your head of state.  Also, the result of the current war can be resolved with the adjustment of boundaries but potentially leaving the current regime intact.  The 2003 Iraq War is a clear example of a maximalist regime change.  So all in all the lessons of 2003 are much more frightening than the Russia-Ukraine war.

The lesson from both of these wars is that the leadership of great powers could decide that they could divert from their domestic woes by starting a foreign adventure. Putin invaded Ukraine not because he wanted to adjust the boundary, but because he wanted to actually conquer it entirely to give his regime some more staying power, and then exterminate the Ukrainian identity itself. That is far more dangerous than invading a country with the intention of regime change. Bush, for all his faults, had no interest in exterminating Iraq as a nation and annexing it as a 51st state. He "merely" hoped to remake it into another post-WW2 Japan or Germany.

And besides, if the current Russian war ends with Ukraine ceding some territory while leaving the government in Kyiv in place, then that will guarantee another war a few years later, where another region gets annexed. And that will become a license for dozens of nations to build their own nuclear deterrent, including Ukraine. Some people are willing to live with their nation undergoing a foreign-backed regime change. No one will accept their nation getting wiped out.

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https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1634587692980744199

It makes sense. After all, the Wagner Group, which can't recruit from prisons anymore, is turning to mental hospitals for recruitment.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1633113284634193921

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So much for the deluded fantasy that India is buying Russian oil out of solidarity...

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/india-to-ensure-no-breach-on-russia-oil-purchase-sanctions/articleshow/98585193.cms

...or the even more deluded fantasy that the Global South is a unified and cohesive anti-western bloc.

https://www.reuters.com/article/india-russia-china-yuan-idAFL4N35K0HZ