Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/miladvisor/status/1628450651486187522

[lfromnj]

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/118uje2/ua_pov_prigozhin_publishes_photo_of_wagner_kia_in/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=13&utm_content=share_button

Wagner leader complains about lack of supply and posts 2 pics. One shows KIA in a day at Bakhmut. Around 50 bodies . Also shows shortages of unknown artillery shells.  Picture is NSFL so beware.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-20/putin-s-arms-dealers-put-war-tested-weapons-on-sale-at-uae-show

"Putin’s Arms Dealers Put War-Tested Weapons on Sale at UAE Show"

Russian defense companies were out in force at an arms fair in the United Arab Emirates despite international sanctions, pitching to sell weapons that a top ally of Vladimir Putin said had been battle-tested in the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine.

It seems Russia has surplus weapons production capacity if they are trying to sell arms externally.

[2952-0-0]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-20/putin-s-arms-dealers-put-war-tested-weapons-on-sale-at-uae-show

"Putin’s Arms Dealers Put War-Tested Weapons on Sale at UAE Show"

Russian defense companies were out in force at an arms fair in the United Arab Emirates despite international sanctions, pitching to sell weapons that a top ally of Vladimir Putin said had been battle-tested in the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine.

It seems Russia has surplus weapons production capacity if they are trying to sell arms externally.

Yes, just like how Stalin's USSR and Mao's China both exported grain when millions of their own people were starving.

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1628477873735475200

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1628504228024012805?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1628360007564636160?s=20

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1628345137393721345?cxt=HHwWgoCz4c3RhZktAAA...

[Woody]

Berkhivka is almost completely under Wagner control. Russians made considerable advances to the east of Bakhmutivka river section of Bakhmut (Russians have been striking pontoon bridges as their artillery is in range.

They are somewhere around 800 meters from the city center now. Less of an encirclement, more like a cauldron:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1628512743052435456
https://mobile.twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1628513011781537795?cxt=HHwWhsC4tZ...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1628466585722662913?s=20

[Woody]

Important to watch the Kupyansk/East Kharakiv area the next few days. Russians started probing the area for a while, they have increased their probing to attacks. They most likely will be launching full-scale attacks here soon. Ukrainians have been doing delay tactics/hope to hold them out until wet season arrives here (this is marsh land)

Russian forces here consist of light infantry. Interestingly, like the rest of the Russian Army, they have increased their reliability on the use of mortars, presumably a page taken out of Wagner.

Synkivka will most likely fall as it's been the most vulnerable settlement/costly to hold.

[NOVA Green]

I don't believe it has been mentioned here yet, but Ukraine has somehow found a way to hit Russian positions in Mariupol hard and circumvent Russian air defense systems...

Here's the section of the story focusing on the Mariupol, with a bunch of other stuff focusing on the Russian Air War terrorism against civilian targets in Ukraine.

Ukraine found a way to hit deep behind enemy lines with a series of mysterious explosions in Russian-held territory early Wednesday, even as Ukrainians themselves were warned that Moscow appears poised to unleash a new barrage of attacks.

Half a year after the southern port city of Mariupol fell to a fierce Russian siege, nearly a dozen explosions were reported there overnight into Wednesday. Russian-occupied areas of the Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson regions were also hit, according to reports and video.

What targets were struck was perhaps less intriguing than how Ukrainian forces had managed to hit them.

After taking control of Mariupol in the spring, Moscow gradually turned the city into a major garrison, apparently because it was thought to be out of the range of powerful U.S.-provided missiles in the nearest Ukrainian stronghold, near the ruined mining town of Vuhledar.

But at least 11 explosions were reported Wednesday by the exiled City Council. One of them destroyed a Russian ammunition warehouse in the district near the airport, the council said.

It was not the first time explosions have been reported deep behind enemy lines during the war, but questions swirled on Wednesday about what had happened. In the past, the Ukrainians have used drones, special operators working behind enemy lines and a vast network of partisans loyal to Kyiv to wage war on the occupiers.

The Ukrainian General Staff said only that Ukraine’s air force had launched eight attacks on the temporary bases of Russian troops and two strikes on the positions of Russia’s antiaircraft missile systems.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/22/world/europe/ukraine-mariupol.html

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1628594293177823232

[2952-0-0]

Do the leadership of Transnistria even want to be cannon fodder for faraway Moscow which can't support them? If the Ukrainians do move against Transnistria, it will be after the Transnistrian leadership accept a deal they can't refuse. There's no reason for Ukraine to risk a drop of their soldier's blood for land that isn't theirs.

[Хahar 🤔]

Do the leadership of Transnistria even want to be cannon fodder for faraway Moscow which can't support them? If the Ukrainians do move against Transnistria, it will be after the Transnistrian leadership accept a deal they can't refuse. There's no reason for Ukraine to risk a drop of their soldier's blood for land that isn't theirs.

As far as I know, the leadership of Transnistria consists of Viktor Gushan and his company Sheriff. It's a little difficult for me to follow the exact energy politics of the region because contemporary sources are sketchy, but the basis of Sheriff company rule for Transnistria's entire history has been free Russian natural gas. Russia tried and failed to get a stronger commitment from Transnistria to support the Ukrainian war last year, which suggests that Sheriff is currently the dominant party in the relationship in the Sheriff-Kremlin relationship, but it's hard to seriously argue that Russia has not supported Transnistria or that Sheriff would get a better deal if its state were dissolved and incorporated into Moldova.

[Storr]

An interesting translated interview with Kyrylo Budanov, Ukrainian GUR chief:

On Bakhmut:

"(B): As a patriot and a military man, surrendering even a millimeter of the territory is a disaster. This is my personal logic. You can agree with it or not. From a military point of view, holding Bakhmut allows us to deter the Russians in that area and inflict catastrophic losses on them."

"(I): Are we exhausting them in this way?"

"(B): We are exhausting them and defending our territory, which cannot be assessed in the context of whether it is advisable or inexpedient to leave."

--

"(I): If you apply a football [soccer, for my fellow red blooded Americans. Matches last 90 minutes.] analogy to the 12 months of the great war. What is the score, and what is the minute of the match?"

"(B): The score is 1-1, and the minute is 70. This is a subjective vision."

--

I think Finland is better analogy for a "permanent defensive operation" post-war Ukraine, unless Budanov means continued active fighting (presumably against pro-Russian insurgents in currently occupied territory?) once/if the 1991 borders are reached. At least Ukraine has friendly neighbors to the west and south, unlike Israel. Bolding for emphasis added by me:

"(I): We have reached the borders of 1991, and there is a feeling in society that this is the end of the war. But this is not a fact. What will make Russia end the war?"

"(B): You’re right, it may or may not mean the end. It is possible to transfer the war to a completely different format. It is possible to move to a permanent defense operation. A good example is Israel, which lives in a constant state of war, conducting a defense operation along its borders. Most likely, this will lead us to solve internal problems in the previously occupied territories, which is a huge set of issues."

[NOVA Green]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1628594293177823232

Once again the double-speak of what one might consider a quasi Fascist regime (Granted historical compare and contrasts don't work well with a small number of data sets each with their own unique experiences), certainly brings to mind a few quotes from a writer back in the day.

Russian experts must have trained "Baghdad Bob" back in the dayz of Iraq War 2.0

George Orwell:

“Doublethink means the power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one's mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them.”

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”

“You are a slow learner, Winston."
"How can I help it? How can I help but see what is in front of my eyes? Two and two are four."
"Sometimes, Winston. Sometimes they are five. Sometimes they are three. Sometimes they are all of them at once. You must try harder. It is not easy to become sane.”

[jaichind]

https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/crimean-bridge-repaired-and-reopened-six-months-ahead-of-schedule-26-01-2023/

"Crimean Bridge repaired and reopened six months ahead of schedule"

I think as of today all 4 car lanes have resumed traffic which restores the state before the explosion.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-23/ukraine-latest-russia-support-for-war-hardens-as-putin-cracks-down

"Russians’ Support for Putin’s War Hardens as His Crackdown Grows"




Looks like the Russian public increasingly expects a long war which would match reality in my view

[Logical]

Russian pollster: "Do you support our president Putin in his struggle to defeat the Ukronazis?"
Respondent: "Yes, certainly. Don't arrest me Mr. FSB"
Russian pollster: "See, everyone supports the war!"

[jaichind]

https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2023/02/ukraine-wants-ban-on-game-allegedly-funded-by-russians-and-set-in-glorified-ussr

"Ukraine wants ban on game allegedly funded by Russians and set in glorified USSR"

[Person Man]

https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2023/02/ukraine-wants-ban-on-game-allegedly-funded-by-russians-and-set-in-glorified-ussr

"Ukraine wants ban on game allegedly funded by Russians and set in glorified USSR"

How do you think we would’ve dealt with a movie in 1942 that glorified the Nazis?

[Torie]

https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/crimean-bridge-repaired-and-reopened-six-months-ahead-of-schedule-26-01-2023/

"Crimean Bridge repaired and reopened six months ahead of schedule"

I think as of today all 4 car lanes have resumed traffic which restores the state before the explosion.

[Virginiá]

Do the leadership of Transnistria even want to be cannon fodder for faraway Moscow which can't support them? If the Ukrainians do move against Transnistria, it will be after the Transnistrian leadership accept a deal they can't refuse. There's no reason for Ukraine to risk a drop of their soldier's blood for land that isn't theirs.

Over the long term, it is in Ukraine's interests to remove as much Russian influence from the surrounding region as possible.

In the short term, the seizure of the Cobasna Military Depot intact could give Ukraine hundred(s) of thousands of artillery shells, grad rockets, explosives and small arms ammunition and other weapons that would be a major strategic gain for Ukraine's 2023 offensives. Capturing it would probably require some sort of organized surrender from the Russians there, which honestly isn't that hard to imagine given the perilous situation they are in if Moldova/Ukraine make a play for it.

[Gass3268]

Does Russia realize that a potential war with Moldova pushes them into the EU/NATO?